NOTION VTEC upcoming(Feb) Q1 2012 earnings, MEGA Good or Bad? Thai flood hit Notion Vtec's Lens Cam barrel & Mounting Ring factory, located near to Nikon's factory. Western Digital has factory @ Thai, affected by flood. However WD also has factory @ Vietnam, Singapore, Johor which like JCY are happly running 24-7!! Please also visit : http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/2012/01/can-notion-avoid-loss.html
The Edge Financial Daily "Private Equity Eyes Notion Again?", our Board of Directors wishes to announce that we have been informed by the controlling shareholders of the Company that they have been approached by a party indicating their intention to acquire the entire business/equity interests in the Company. However, neither the controlling shareholders nor the Company has received any definitive proposal. Negotiations are still on-going and the Company will make the necessary announcement should there be any matter that requires an immediate disclosure.
Good people are recommending JCY. TP fr RM1.50~RM2.00, saying about Capital Placement by WD or Seagate. I will buy JCY soon too, looks promising . Of cause still can buy NOTION, TP Rm2.30.
In the TheEdge weekly magazine, TheEdge member hv interview notion recently, according to them, business will pick up after March due to demand of camera. My direct source tell me notion has a new project to be announced after GE [not sure what is that and how true]. Let watch closely n never ignore this.
The Edge Weekly reported that Notion VTec secured five new customers in the HDD sector â?? NHK Spring, Minebea, Nidec, Toshiba and Seagate (via recently acquired Samsung HDD), to be serviced through its Klang manufacturing plant in the near term. This is following an earlier article noting the companyâ??s newfound focus to maximise production of 2.5 inch HDD base plates to grow its HDD segment by 40 per cent.
Kong says = I just sold all my shares in Notion @ 2.01-2.02, made huge profit. Considering going into MRCB. Comment please.
kongtl, what to comment? HDD is the notion's core business. Picking up is common thing, however, new revenue still come from camera (base on TheEdge) and new project (nothing to do with HDD or camera as per my direct source, let c how true). How far notion can go with these 2 sources of revenue, nobody will know at this moment.
Notion (Thailand) Co. Ltd Factory affected by Floods Date Announced : 10/02/2012 Announcement Details/Table Section :
Further to the announcements made on 11 October 2011 and 23 November 2011, the Board of Directors of the Company wishes to update on the impact to the Group arising from the floods on the operations of Notion Thailand Co. Ltd (â??Notion Thailandâ??) as follows:-
1) Following the dry out by end November 2011, Notion Thailandâ??s factory located in Ayutthaya had to be cleaned out and all affected stock and inventory were recovered. Work-in-Progress and finished goods were sent back to the Groupâ??s factory located in Klang for cleaning and recovery.
2) Electrical, telecommunication and water supply were fully restored soon after the drying out.
3) The process of insurance claim is still on-going and only expected to be completed by March 2012.
4) Notion Thailand will now recommence operations of anodising and sub-assembly of lens before June 2012 but all support for the Single-lens Reflex (â??SLRâ??) camera segment will be from the main Klang factory. As a result, the financial impact of the loss of revenue to the Group arising from our affected Thai factory will be minimal as Notion Thailand contributed less than 3% to the Groupâ??s revenue.
5) The Groupâ??s business outlook has turned for the better with a strong recovery in January 2012 sales to much higher than pre-flood level. The trend is expected to be upwards for the remainder of the financial year ending 30 September 2012 (â??FY2012â??) and beyond as the Hard Disk Drive (â??HDDâ??) segment is expected to be in short supply until mid 2013 due to backlog of orders. The average selling price of HDD is expected to remain above pre-flood level for multi-quarters ahead.
6) One of our major HDD customers is reportedly estimating full pre-flood operations by September quarter 2012.
7) With the entrance of 3 new Japanese major customers in the HDD segment and the ramp up in HDD component sales, we expect FY2012â??s revenue to grow in strong double digit over FY2011. The sustainability of this new business is expected to be good as the customersâ?? commitment is assumed to be long term.
8) Meanwhile we expect robust camera orders in February 2012 onwards as the camera segment is expected to be on route to full pre-flood operations by March 2012 while the Auto/Industrial segment remains stable.
The above is internal managementâ??s estimation and is not a forecast or projection and has not been reviewed by our external auditors.
OK, the Nasdaq has gone to an 11 year high. More localised news, the Thailand floods wreaked havoc on the HDD and related components supply chain. While this blog picked it up at 50 sen, JCY's current price and dramatic change in fortunes seems implausible 2 months back.
If you look at the recovery in Notion Vtec, it was OK but nowhere as spectacular as some of the rest in the same industry. There is still a lot of unknowns and uncertainty as to who are the real winners and losers from the Thailand floods. While JCY did not see any of their factories affected, and they benefited from strong additional clients. I think some investors still think Notion Vtec came off from the floods worse than before. Management has guided analysts that 1Q2012 will see revenue declining 40% q-on-q. However, there are strong newsflow from the industry that Notion Vtec actually benefited significantly from the floods as well. Apparently their Thai factory which was affected only contributed a small portion of revenue.
If one were to dig deeper, fortuitously, they have excess capacity in Klang, and it appears that they have ramped up production there owing to the fact that they have secured 3 new big clients owing to the redirection of logistic supply chain away from the affected areas in Thailand.
Some are hinting that profits and revenue are even higher now than their results prior to the floods. If that is going to be the case, then the share price should be closer to RM2.40-2.50 and not dawdling below RM2.00.
However, if you want to spot something brewing, the sharp uptick in the warrants and volume as well over the past few days may indicate some substantive good news or corporate developments to follow soon.
I honestly think NOTION gonna go up to Rm2.50 by end of April, but wait till it drop to Rm1.95 - Rm1.96 then buy. At Rm1.99 - Rm2.00 a bit too high, for now. Why pay more? I do have Notion. Wanna buy more, but not today.
Bankers r still talking bout Notion splitting to 3 parts/Company i.e. No.1 HDD; No.2 Camera & No.3 Precision/Tools/Metal Works/Auto(brakes). Some says even selling Part No.1 HDD to rival M'sian Co. & Part No.3 to UMW. Another, says Notion factories are running MAXIMUM shifts(3x8hours) i.e. 24-7 since Oct2011.
HDDs (Neutral) Growth Neutralized '''' Seagate was fortunate that all its factories in Thailand were fully operational and remain largely unscathed. Seagate's HDD shipment had surpassed WD in 2Q12. '''' In the consumer market, weak demand in personal computers (PC) drags down the demand for HDD. According to preliminary results by Gartner, worldwide PC shipments totalled 92.2m units in 4Q11, a 1.4% decline qoq, muting the boost of holiday season sales. '''' This negative outlook is partly due to the market preference of tablets, such as iPads substituting PC due to convenience and handy. In the recent CES in Las Vegas, we saw that PC makers begin to embrace ultrabook, thin laptop computers built with new Intel low-power chip and solid-state drive (SSD) instead of HDD. '''' As for the enterprise market, HDD demand is forecasted to undergo growth in tandem with global spending on IT. Gartner predicted global IT spending would rise 3.7% in 2012 while Forrester Research expects 5.5% growth. '''' SSD has set a solid footprint in HDD's space and raised doubts on HDD's future as the long term storage solution. While SSD remains considerably more costly, the flash-based storage devices are coming down in prices much faster compared to HDD. SSD is making a small scale in-road into the market in the form of hybrid hard drive (HHD), which is the combination of HDD and SSD. '''' Despite expectations of modest demand growth, other negatives (input cost, FOREX and replacement by SSD) are likely to weight down share price performance. '''' Notion (HOLD, TP: RM2.03) is our top pick for the sector due to its unique position, having diversified away from HDDs to the higher-margin Camera business.
Kim : Very good question, answer it's about even. Not too long ago(29/03/10,)Notion doing Rm3.49. Since then, NTA(from Rm1.45 to Rm1.74 today) & Profit have both improve BIG TIME. Therefore, I C big potential.
atom7nine: please dont so grey man, HDD is not going anywhere, u heard of Wi-Fi External HDD? tablets ipad storage is too small, SSD is too expensive, movie picture quality will keep improving, the size of the file is getting bigger, bigger file require bigger volume size storage.
Sorry guys, I was not me. I got more JCY @ RM1.25 & MRCB @ RM2.14. KimYL: Nay, RM1.90 cannot my friend. I think lowest for today still RM1.97. Maybe tomorrow can catch at RM1.95. Good luck guys.
Ah Kong & Ah Tom, kamu kata mahu beli minggu depan. Tunggu la, minggu depan saya akan jual sama kamu 2. Harga 2.10 la. Kanapa kamu 2 orang takut beli ini minggu?
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
atom7nine
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Posted by atom7nine > 2012-01-29 00:34 | Report Abuse
NOTION VTEC upcoming(Feb) Q1 2012 earnings, MEGA Good or Bad?
Thai flood hit Notion Vtec's Lens Cam barrel & Mounting Ring factory, located near to Nikon's factory. Western Digital has factory @ Thai, affected by flood. However WD also has factory @ Vietnam, Singapore, Johor which like JCY are happly running 24-7!! Please also visit : http://bursadummy.blogspot.com/2012/01/can-notion-avoid-loss.html