hi all, can't u all see through the smokescreen?? can the handphone project...for the directors to divert money out from company with such stupid projects? commissions? kickbacks?
can't u all see how silly the project is? rebadging the hp from china into local notion vtec name?? do u see the similarities here???????
bursa should check the previously failed project in australia...it just seemed to coincident to invest hugely into a project non related to core business...and then just fail!!! did any directors pocket the money in between??????
if still holding, don't sell, much better results expected for 2nd Q report in few weeks, should breakeven or minimal loss/gain +/-1 million ba. Accumulation going on
Guest i should explain more... forex losses can be 'calculated' from the outstanding balance of their hedges, and the margin of increase by USD to RM since last Q's closing. Similarly, the stronger USD can also be calculated to increase revenue by X% since last Q, assuming everything remains the same.
If revenue is the same, expect loss of -1 mill to breakeven I guess. If revenue increase QoQ we may see profit between 0-1 million.
This is just an educated guess, buy/hold at your own risk :)
Last quarter RM17million forex losses is due to mark to market. How come this quarter another RM12million in forex losses?
2 quarters RM29million forex losses? Where got so much... and why the gross margin drop so much? Revenue went up QoQ but the gross profit drop down. Management also din explain.
Ya, mistakes in estimating d forex losses to b at 7million. :( fundamentally its good though. I think their CNC machine use rate is much higher now? 1st time since a long while revenue hit 63m per q. LSO forex close at 3.70 in march. In April forex close at 3.60, so confirm some forex gain realized back. and may now at 3.57. Ideally get some forex gain back, before USD strengthen back to 3.7 ba.
But assuming revenue is fattened by forex exchange by 15, deducting 15% revenue is at 53million. Don't have access to previous q results now, have to see past results what is their machine utilization is at 53-55 mill sales
As a stuck in d boat investor. I like good growth in their HDD n Auto business. I think they managed to utilized d machines vacated by loss of camera business d. No point to cut loss n give other ppl profit ;) I don't have the figures now, will post again later, but iirc, their auto business growth is impressive actually. QoQ is almost 30% growth in this Q alone. If not for weaker euro for their auto business, QoQ growth is more like 35%?? Need to refer back my excel in a while
Blackout, 2nd q end of march, forex at 3.70 that's why marked, April 3.6 and may 3.6 also la let's say. So will get some forex gain from d higher MTM at 3.7 in march
why would the phone project encounter delays? Do you have more information? From what we can guess.
On the phone itself, the telephone should be the easiest part of their business. 1) It can be as simple as just a rebadge of an OEM phone - This project should be risk free at least on the phone manufacturing process, and would not incur what you're saying. 2) It can be more complex, if they want to hire UI designer to skin their phone as well. But even then, this is cosmetics and doesn't really have risks to it. 3) The manufacturing of phones by OEM factories in China is very well matured too, shouldn't have issues, unless they got conned by scammers.
On the supporting side 1) Facebook/Website marketing - Need to create FB account, and/or website to perform the sales of the phone 2) Staff hiring - Hire staff to manage the sales, marketing, packing/shipment of phone
Personally I'm hoping from their silence on this (no mention of phone project in their Q report at all), means that they're dropping the phone business idea completely. Especially if their core business is getting back on track, which is getting back on track.
nightmare over? Most of the USD hedging contract are gonna ended on May. Or maybe need to wait one more quarter so Notion can totally be detoxified of hedging stuff.
But Im afraid ringgit would turn strong in the second half of 2015.
Something i posted on DuFu thread. Dufu is another company doing CNC machine, exact same business profile as notion, but their product only HDD
Net Asset Per Share. Notion 105 cent, Dufu 57 cent (84% more NAPS)
Revenue I'll take average 1 Q's revenue since Dufu only 1st Q result. Notion ~66million, Dufu ~34million
Operating margin Operating income/revenue Notion ~ average of 2 Qs 17341k/122193k = 14% margin. Dufu = 733k/34958k = 2% (dufu need to do 7x sales, to get equal profit with notion) 700% more margin vs DuFu. This latest Q result can say bad margin d, normal notion margin is 17%!
EPS. Dufu = 0.31 sen. Notion = -1.69 sen [Expecting notion EPS for 3rdQ to be around 3.7 sen per share, to totally breakeven 1st 2 Q's losses] Assume same EPS for 4th Q if not higher, FY EPS for notion despite 2 first Q loss = 3.7 sen per share. Assume Dufu 10% increase in EPS QoQ, 0.31+0.34+0.38+0.42 = 1.45 sen.
And dufu share is at same price range.. abt 36cents now.
So... I just find it interesting, that two business exactly same CNC business, almost same share price 36 for dufu vs 37 for notion.
But if you look at fundamentals, notion's fundamental is much much higher than Dufu's. Do you know of another company doing CNC machine business listed in KLSE too? Good to do comparison of same industry companies.
Found another one, ASTI group, listed in Sg, parent Co for Emerald Precision Engineering. Doing same CNC machining/precision parts.
Let's look at their figures, based on FY2014.. No 2015 Q reports available. I wont do SG to RM translation to apple apple it.. but you can take the % figures..
ASTI Group share price (SGD) 0.06 NAPS = 13 cent. NAPS/Share price = 2.1x, notion NAPS/Shareprice = 2.8x
Revenue, FY 2014, SGD 135160k Operating profit = 2616k Operating margin = 2616k/135160k = 1.9% about the same as dufu also. Notion's 14-17% op margin is really strong now, if you compare with other player in this business.
ASTI EPS = 0.44 cents PE ratio = 6/0.44 = 13.63. I'm projecting Notion 3rd and 4th Q to have EPS of 3.7 each. Total notion FY 2015 EPS, 3.7cent PER = 37/3.7 = 10.
Is there another CNC business with a better fundamentals? I want to see how bad/far notion is, compared with a true precision manufacturing best of class leader... Maybe i widen my search to US/China market..
Hi Val-Elta : you are really a great gate-keeper of Notion. Thank you for your consistent hard work.
I have no eyes to see my investment on Notion, in fact I have psychologically written off the investment. Anyway if the salted fish can really turn around one final day, I would welcome it with open arms. Nevertheless, it would be a fairy tale if I can recoup my initiate capital. Ha Ha.
Im an existing shareholder, assessing my portfolio every now and then. I sold some profitable shares to average down a bit more today at 37. Give notion 1,2 good quarters, and I'm sure it'll go back up around 50-60 cents. What price did you bought bsngpg?
US automobile sales result out later today, expecting a very good month for May as well, with 17 million cars sold. TRW shld be a strong player in the US market.. wonder how much business it can give notion only. Let's hope Notion can grow their revenue with TRW, as TRW is a very very big player.
USD to RM for April and May is below M2M price of 3.70, so there's some forex gain for sure... At the moment, June seems like 3.70++ maybe some M2M gonna happen for 3rd Q, but depending on outstanding position left, any additional forex losses if USD > 3.80 per RM, can be partially offset by higher profit from sales as well.
Also, I think we can see Notion will probably get EPS of 3-4 cent per Q post the expiry of the forex hedges. Total FY EPS will be 12-16 cents!
Also for 2nd Q results, if you read their cash flow statement, there's a 7 million cost involved in either replacing their CNC machine or service/repairs incurred in their cost of sales.
If not for this amount, they could actually have breakeven already in 2nd Q itself. Maybe kitchen sinking, to book all costs in to 2nd Q. 3rd Q result gonna be exciting I hope!
And please... don't buy the handphones!! Surprisingly, as much as I want to findout more about their smartphone, I CANT... not in facebook, not in google. If they're actively marketing it, they're doing a bad job. Let's just hope it means they cancelled their whole smartphone idea completely...
Also, I think we can see Notion will probably get EPS of 3-4 cent per Q post the expiry of the forex hedges. Total FY EPS will be 12-16 cents!
Also for 2nd Q results, if you read their cash flow statement, there's a 7 million cost involved in either replacing their CNC machine or service/repairs incurred in their cost of sales.
If not for this amount, they could actually have breakeven already in 2nd Q itself. Maybe kitchen sinking, to book all costs in to 2nd Q. 3rd Q result gonna be exciting I hope!
And please... don't buy the handphones!! Surprisingly, as much as I want to findout more about their smartphone, I CANT... not in facebook, not in google. If they're actively marketing it, they're doing a bad job. Let's just hope it means they cancelled their whole smartphone idea completely...
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Unbeatable Nick
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Posted by Unbeatable Nick > 2015-03-23 15:15 | Report Abuse
why launching smartphone?? Can compete meh??