Posted by AhJee > 2014-08-07 13:29 | Report Abuse

be alert the resistance at 0.74, once break thru should have a how.
anyhow it still under value

Posted by peterchia > 2014-08-07 13:50 | Report Abuse

Need to hv more volume.

Posted by AhJee > 2014-08-14 09:50 | Report Abuse

this counter no ooommm.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-08-14 21:56 | Report Abuse

So many new Notion-ers suddenly.. hahaha. I'll just drop by to put my 2cents.

I'm one of the longer holders of notion, all the while trying to give a neutral position while everyone was screaming sell back then. But eventually, I did cash all out during the recent rise, missed the peak by a lot too...I must sadly admit. Those who follow this thread, should remember me ba.

I'm not someone who follows emotions, rather like to believe in numbers.
The numbers don't really look good near term.

If it's not for the forex, it'll be another Q of lost for notion.

Now, just recently, someone was saying the Thoo Chow Fah is buying, but at the same time I did try to offer a counter opinion that, the other directors were selling too... In my mind, if the other directors are selling so near this Q's results, surely they know it's not going to be good.

And it's not too good to be honest.

QoQ wise, I'll expect the same results next quarter.
HDD, 22m (+2 qoq)
Camera, 20m (+5 qoq)
Automotive, 20m (+3 qoq)
Silver, -2.5m
Forex, 0 (no more forex gains, unless USD dips below 3? as current favourable exchange rate already booked for all outstanding loans, more forex gain is only possible if USD continues weaken)

All in, abt 5m better vs this q. My figures here is very very optimistic already, showing reasonable growth across all 3 core sectors.

Assuming even if the glass business is confirmed for 2015, it's a bit of a disappointment, initially, I was hoping it's related to the metal aluminium body, as I believe that's the real good margins...

If it's machining glass, the glass should come preordered from sony or lg or etc.. and notion's part should just be on grinding the edges to smooth things out and to get the rounded edges, which may not be able to contribute big margins... **I could be wrong. assuming a RM1-2 net profit per piece, at 1.5million pieces per q, the initial contribution from machining of glasses may not be that much.. Mmm. However, if they can grow it to 4 or 5 million per q, then there'll be some good money in it, that's definitely possible.

Another thing that I'm a bit uncomfortable, is previously I take it as their management to be honest in their reporting, however, I'm a bit worried on some signs where what's reported didn't turn up well. For example, their fire insurance claims, they keep saying it'll be paid in the next quarter, for too long already... a bit of a red flag there.
Or the special dividend which was hinted, as another example. It may still come, in the future.

Let's see how the shareprice reacts.

*Final disclaimer, all in, I still think it's can be re-bought back at a lower price. If it drops to ard 55-60, maybe i'll jump back in.

Posted by usry > 2014-08-14 21:56 | Report Abuse

Although it record of loss for YoY however Notion was turn in black when it register of RM1.26million profit for Q3 2014 compare with nett loss RM7.37 million record on Q2 2014 on March 2014.
Look like we can put this share on our portfolio list for next year if this company really involves in smart phone component.

Posted by ryan_och > 2014-08-19 13:59 | Report Abuse

If cannot hold 0.64, will be another droptrend.

Posted by kkkua > 2014-08-21 11:14 | Report Abuse

how low to enter...now or later...

Posted by AhJee > 2014-08-21 15:29 | Report Abuse

no show

Posted by Kukuman > 2014-08-21 15:32 | Report Abuse

This company is in a sunset industry. The computer industry has changed so much and the company has to do something to revive its fortune

Posted by Angel_Investor > 2014-08-23 17:33 | Report Abuse

Well say Val-Elta! Let's wait at lower range of 0.55 - 0.60

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-08-28 11:45 | Report Abuse

I wont say the company didn't change... they changed from HDD to SLR and now they're changing to Automotive. Problem is, there seems to be, maybe just maybe some divergence between top management? You think so easy to change and to get into a new industry/segment which already have their own established suppliers?

Seems to have strong support at 60 cents, and not much sellers too.
I got 8 lots matched yesterday at 59 :S haha

Off topic a bit, anyone of you ever worries about the 'us stock bubble'?

Posted by Snowden > 2014-08-28 23:38 | Report Abuse

Hopeless owners. No hope cut loss

Posted by Weiyi Yap > 2014-09-16 09:24 | Report Abuse

I bought 0.69 should i sell or hold, pls advice

Posted by lloydlim > 2014-09-16 10:02 | Report Abuse

Weiyi Yap, definitely hold!

Posted by amason > 2014-09-16 10:02 | Report Abuse

Weiyi sell half and hold half

Posted by Weiyi Yap > 2014-09-16 10:14 | Report Abuse

Potential counter?
im newbie in share market..

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-09-16 23:03 | Report Abuse

If Notion has potential or not, I dare not to comment as share mkt is not predictable where lemon can sometimes become diamond.

But what I can tell you is that if you have bought Notion in 2010 and 2011 and hold it until today(me lol), you would have lost 40% in average plus opportunity cost. Pls do not misunderstand that I chosed high in 2010 and 2011. You can choose average price of 2012, 2013 or 2014 and check if it is still a negative game.

On the other hand, if you have bought Mahsing on 30/6/2010 and 30/6/2011 and hold it till now, you would have earned at least 100% and 25% respectively.

So I were you, I would not buy Notion. It is my 2 cents only. If somebody fries up Notion, I rest my case.

Posted by trincylim > 2014-09-17 12:21 | Report Abuse

Bought in 300,000 units at 0.62 and still holding, and still praying hard. When can we see a turnaround?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-09-18 11:16 | Report Abuse

Mmm.. if you buy, and have to pray hard. You're buying for the wrong reasons really... trincylim, what made you buy notion in the 1st place?

I can't say for those who buy at 69/62 what can they do...
But from my personal experience, everytime you cut loss, your loss is someone else's gains.. For myself, I've jumped back in, average price 0.5784


Let's assume you're buying in at 69 cents. What's your exit strategy(target)? How long do you expect to hold to reach that exit point(time)? What's your risk from now until that time(risks)? Worst case scenario, can you survive(holding power)?

For me, since my entrance is lower. Strategy could be something like this
Exit at 0.64 for 10% gain
Time, 3-6 months. There's no news at all that's gonna drive the share up until the next Q result is released. (except if got goreng)
Risks... US stock bubble crash. If no crash, I think in 6 months notion's turn around should be complete.
Worst case scenario, I'm prepared for notion to drop to 54 cents. But, I don't think they will though. Even without any positive news, your share is still supported by Notion's NAPS as the baseline.

In the longer term PRO.
Notion's huge amount of CNC machines can turn in a lot of money... (IF, they can get them all running!) Assuming utilization now is at 60% and it won't get worst (no/minimal downside risks) there's still a possibility of them increasing their revenue by 33% more (60% utilization to 80%) and this is what I'm targeting as their Q results churns out as they move along. As long as revenue is increasing, utilization increasing, that's your fundamental reason for buying notion.


In the longer term CONS.
I'm a bit concerned on the senior managements.. this is all speculative feeling, that's not back by any proof.. so do take note.
Feels like there's some 'cracks' among them? Power struggle? Others directors not happy with the chairman's alcyone mistake?
The chairman is buying the shares up, while the others are dumping.
It seems like the other directors may continue dump too, if the price is good. **again all speculative talk.. gut feeling.. take it with a grain of salt**

Posted by lloydlim > 2014-09-30 21:25 | Report Abuse

What's happening? Heavy selling pressure!

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-10-02 15:55 | Report Abuse

Thoo Chow Fah sold 2mill at 55-56 cents.
Mmmm.. interesting.

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-02 15:58 | Report Abuse

Yet another 52 Weeks low, RM0.545. I'm only going in at RM0.485

Posted by no_idea > 2014-10-02 20:53 | Report Abuse

Last time when other directors disposed, Thoo Chow Fah still collecting. Now .. something must happen behind. I am trapped, too conficent with Notion ignored the Aug selling moment.

Posted by lloydlim > 2014-10-03 23:07 | Report Abuse

Now already closed at 52 weeks low!

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-07 07:02 | Report Abuse

Buying Notion Vtec now(above 0.50) is like "Catching A Falling Knife". Maybe 45 cents then it's ok to enter.

Posted by Angel_Investor > 2014-10-07 12:53 | Report Abuse

Low can become lower! Be cautious guys!

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-07 13:55 | Report Abuse

Thanks Angel. Another record low!! 0.52

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-08 12:36 | Report Abuse

http://www.wkrb13.com/markets/387489/nikon-corp-downgraded-by-goldman-sachs-to-sell-ninoy/

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-08 12:43 | Report Abuse

Goldman Sachs cut shares of Nikon Corp (NASDAQ:NINOY) from a neutral rating to a SELL rating in a research note issued to investors on Monday(6th Oct).

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-09 23:14 | Report Abuse

More bad news : Samsung wants to kill hard drives with new high-efficiency SSDs
http://www.engadget.com/2014/10/09/samsung-tlc-v-nand-ssd/

Posted by Weiyi Yap > 2014-10-11 20:20 | Report Abuse

haiz.. i thk i will sell off all

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-13 14:37 | Report Abuse

Notion in now considered a 'Penny stock'. Under 50 cents = 'JUNK STOCK'. So hopefully Mr Thoo & Choo could protect the 50 cents level. If not, the next support level gonna be 45 cents(OMG!)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-10-13 17:35 | Report Abuse

Hi Unduk.. your Samsung news is more towards JCY I believe.
JCY is mainly on consumer HDDs..

Back then I'm not sure when already, read up my older post here in Notion vs JCY.

While JCY was receiving good revenue increases, I tried to compare and see if there's any correlation between them, but there's NONE. JCY n Notion's HDD business seems to be on a completely different segment.

The way to explain it is, Notion's HDD is more focused (90-100%?) on the enterprise HDD sector, which is not related to JCY's gains in the Desktop/Consumer HDD sector.

I could be wrong though... TBH. Please advice if anyone can confirm otherwise..

Yes, share price drop is ugly, but it's a general market panic now. Tell me which share is still shooting up? There's a lot of good fundamental stocks that's taken a beating as well. Good opportunity to top up (not only notion).. plenty of fish on sales now.

Weiyi, may I ask why did you buy the stock in the first place? And at what price?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-10-13 17:59 | Report Abuse

*Totally off topic, and speculative gut feeling talk* Is there strategies where a company purposely drive their share price down and then to privatise it while it's down? Generally the consensus is to follow the directors' shareholding movement.
But, if you're following their movement and sell without any reasons, won't you be setting yourself into whatever their long terms plan maybe?

I just notices some strange trading patterns, which is later verified from the directors sales notification.... there was a point few weeks ago when 'someone' kept place a queue for 5000 lots at 0.56 (avg price at that time was 57-58), and I was wondering who would sell to him. He kept queue at that price for a few days, to 1 week I think, until finally 56 hits. Any others Notion watchers noticed this 5000lots Q at 56 cents?

Later only I found out that when his 56 cents Q is matched, that's also the time a director sold.

Again, it's just gut feeling discussions based on what I saw in the market. Not suggesting anything. It could be just a coincidence only.

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-13 23:20 | Report Abuse

Val-Elta : Seriously, I now think you could be right, that Notion will/could be taken private by Mr Thoo & Choo. Honestly, that would be very sad, as I always like Notion Vtec. I sold all my shares to purchased a Condo at KK Loft. I only recently re-study Notion as I got a bit cash from disposal of another Condo Investment. To my surprised, Notion was 62 cents. I sold my Notion back in 2012 at over RM1.90. Now I definitely would shy away from Notion. Thanks

Posted by invester > 2014-10-14 11:03 | Report Abuse

My personal opinion is, the privatization will not happen. The reason is, to privatise a company, it needs a lot of cash on hands. At this moment, Notion does not have much cash on hands (after they invested in silver milling company). They might be selling their lands to get some cash in and privatise the company. But I don't think the management or the owner will do so as the lands will be more valuable than the company now.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-10-14 11:46 | Report Abuse

Market cap is 132m, assuming the directors have abt 30% in total now? Didn't check for real actual holding % still need abt 90 mil, which does seems a bit far off.

Selling seems to have slowed down a bit though, we're still talking about a NAPS company of Rm1.19, at this point I think the selling is becoming ridiculous, and since it's 52++ weeks low, the sellers at this point is totally selling at a loss I guess. Don't understand their mentality at times. While the director is selling, as I mentioned above, it seems someone was waiting for him to sell on the other hand of the Q. *or it could be a coincidence...

Mmm, Nikon's new cameras is a hit at least among the enthusiasts/pros with the 810, 750.. will need to see nikon's next Q results to see if there's any improvements.
HDD, expect same revenue.
Camera, can't be lower than last Q's 15mill right(iirc)
Automotive, (should still be higher)
Forex, closed at 3.29, so will have some forex lost as Mark to Market rule, is higher than last Q's forex exchange.
Silver... Now.. this is something else I want to discuss. Is the share of loss of associate a recurring theme (that will continue drain abt 2.x mill per quarter forever), or are they writing off their initial investment on a quarterly basis? I dont seem to see Notion valuing their Shares in Alcyone in their quarterly/AL.. need to dig back and have a look.

Posted by undukngadau > 2014-10-15 09:57 | Report Abuse

Which is more likely? Notion Vtec (A) falling to 45cents(-3.5cents) or (B) rising to 51cents(+2.5cents)? Somehow, I personally choose (A). Please give me your thoughts

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-10-16 16:35 | Report Abuse

Now is super bear correction time, gonna drop la of course, but it's more because of fear rather than anything else. All drop, no matter which sector which company u buy.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2014-10-16 16:38 | Report Abuse

in a bear market... all benchmarks and target price go out the window... whats left is NTA, hope and pray price does not dip this floor... :-(

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-10-17 11:54 | Report Abuse

I'm so sure today's(@ 11:20) gain of 1.5cents will be short-lived!

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-10-17 22:12 | Report Abuse

Timing the market? :P Dow's pretty green now... hard to say.. One thing's for sure, those who cut loss, just made someone elses gain

Posted by bohmiah > 2014-11-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

yes computer sales may be down but corp are starting to store more customer's data hence should more data storage is required?

Posted by undukngadau > 2014-11-10 16:10 | Report Abuse

http://nikonrumors.com/2014/11/08/nikon-announced-q22015-financial-results.aspx/

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-19 11:03 | Report Abuse

Bohmiah, computer sales are not directly related to notion's business somehow... I did try to track notion's sales vs jcy's about 9?-12 months ago, when JCY got a big increase in sales. Notion's HDD sales remains the same. There's no correlation. There's actually an anti correlation in some quarters where JCY sales up, notion's HDD sales went down. I'll say they serve differenet segments. Notion, on enterprise disks, like SAS in servers I guess.
Good news is, enterprise storage is still growing, and will continue growth with the cloud buzzword now.
Also, in consumer HDD, assuming Notion can benefit, Win10 is showing some good promise, for those who want to consider this as good news. (HDD Neutral, it's been a steady revenue stream for a lot of quarters now. No up, no down, no surprise here)


SLR sales, well, for once, Nikon's not cutting their forecast anymore! So, that's a good news in its own I guess. (Neutral-sunset for now, with some potential moving forward. Depends on how Nikon positions themselves actually. One potential that unfortunately Nikon dont seem to be tapping or slowly try tapping, is 4k video recording. They will need this feature in their SLRs to give an edge vs phones.)

Automotive.
This is Notion's sunrise business, from their aggressive growth in the past few quarters. The industry trend for automotive is active safety measures now in Europe/US. So, definitely a lot of potential growth, if Notion serve their customer well. see how fast they can grow their automotive business.

Silver.
No surprise there for now, expect continuous writedown of ~2mil per Q over the next 4 Qs until the investment value in alcyone is approximately valued at ~RM5 mill. One surprising thing is, actually, if you exclude the silver investment writedown, IIRC, notion's FY2014 is actually profitable/very very small loss.

Again, if you're an investor, you will want to buy a company that can turn around, instead of getting stuck and dying when their business fundamental changed.
With Notion, I think up to now, it's fair to say we can see from HDD > SLR and now > Automotive.

I'm being passive in my assessment here, and purposely exclude their handphone/oil&gas business.

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-19 12:01 | Report Abuse

Thks for the good assessment and comments

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-11-19 13:26 | Report Abuse

Val-Elta : Thank you too

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-25 17:33 | Report Abuse

Whens the Q report coming out.....

Posted by undukngadau > 2014-11-25 18:17 | Report Abuse

Which is more likely? Notion Vtec (A) falling to 44cents(-4.5cents) or (B) rising to 52cents(+3.5cents)? Please give me your thoughts

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-25 19:50 | Report Abuse

Q results is out. The silver investment is written off d, at least that won't keep bleeding their next Q results.
Silver writeoff 9.8 mill partially offset by insurance gains of 3.7mil

If you say up or down is likely I'll say definitely down, since surely, there will be people who cut loss.

Still, now that the silver thingy is off the books, the net assets figures of 1.10 is still nice. Revenue is increasing to 55million per Q. Considering the year end net loss of Notion is 16million, you can actually see that IF NOT for the 15 million silver investment, Notion actually lost just 1 million. Of topic, but if the directors of notion also can get scammed from investment in 'shares'.... ahem. This just goes to show how dangerous it is. Any wonder why most of us lose money in the share market?


Ok, moving on. Shares is about forward looking right?
Assuming revenue of 55mil per q can be maintained for the next 4 Qs in 2015. And assuming their costs can be brought back down to the average ~sub 50mil per month. (I'm interested to know the sharp jump in Cost of Sales for this Q vs prior Qs..)
Assuming again their handphone business is talk for fun only.
Potential earnings for FY 2015, should be at least about 10 million. Around 3.5-4 cent EPS.

Forex is at an all time high of 3.35 to 1USD. I think there's only one way for the forex to go in the future, which is down. Or at worst, USD to RM ratio should stay at 3.35. Think overall their hedge position is for the USD to weaken right. So, a lower USD will be beneficial as they go along.

Short term, I'll see people will still sell. But if you look at the longer term, I think there's opportunity to make a buck here.

Again Unduk, at which point you think people are really crazy to sell? I'll be honest my AVG price is at abt 55 cents, but I'll be more than happy to buy more as it drops, which I believe, as most people dont have holding power, will definitely happen. However, I still believe that sellers are 'making' their paper loss into real loss. Might as well keep the shares at this rate, which is approaching the 'ridiculous' to sell price.