Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-25 20:06 | Report Abuse

How to say leh, if you're already an shareholder now. I don't understand the logic to sell at this rate. Which is definitely just realize your losses. Especially, if you're someone who have hold the share past all the Q of losses n stuffs. The final silver writeoff, is a kitchen sinking exercise, there will be no more 'share of loss of associate' in the future Qs reports... Forex is at its peak already for USD as well. If you're a holder of notion when their sales is 47, 44 million per Q, why would you sell when their revenue per Q is now back to a relatively healthy 55 mil per Q?

But sadly, I believe there will be seller as previously mentioned. A lot of the worst news is already over, to sell now, again, I believe is gonna be a severely misguided choice, unless you have a sure win buy elsewhere. Well, who can guarentee you won't buy another lemon? There's just no more bad news (I hope :P ) to continuosly propel the share price down anymore. Any significant drop, to me is a purchase at what I believe is the bottom already.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-25 20:15 | Report Abuse

If you value the share on NAPS, you're selling a 110 cent share for 48 or less cents.

If you value the share on a very humble/conservative earning of 4 cents for 2015, at 12X PE, it's still valued at 48 cents, if any quarter it manage to outperform, we're easily talking EPS of 5 or 6 cents at least, which at 10x PE, is worth 50-60 cents.

No matter which 'method' you wanna use to calculate the 'fair value' selling at below 48 is as I say, sure lose and makes no sense at all. But I ADMIT, strangely enough, some people will do sell! Good chance for me to buy I guess :P

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-11-25 21:56 | Report Abuse

notion wrote off investment on silver, I wrote off(paper only lah) my investment on notion. No eyes to see. I will write back the investment on notion only if it climbs up 150% which may take 15 years. ha! ha! What a silly bitter joke, my stupid "wrong" term investment on notion.
Anyway thanks for your very lengthy yet informative assessment. Appreciate your long term gate keeping on Notion. Thank you.

Posted by shareprofit > 2014-11-25 22:19 | Report Abuse

directors in charge of the silver investment in just should be fired...and investigated throughly...i suspect some huge commission changed hand for the purchase.

Posted by shareprofit > 2014-11-25 22:21 | Report Abuse

btw, insurance gain is NOT operating profit...unless ur expecting notion vote to burn down their factory every quarters..hahaha.

Posted by invester > 2014-11-26 09:27 | Report Abuse

I don't understand why the basic earning per share will increase since it is making lost for quarters. Anyone can help me to understand this? Thanks in advance.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-26 09:57 | Report Abuse

Disclaimer 1st and foremost. At this stage, if you're not in, better don't buy, and wait to see how it goes next Q.
If you're already owner, not much point selling your share too. Since it's pretty much bottom already. And you'll sell at steep discount, that any good quarter will shoot the share price.

Basic earning per share depends on revenue. Notion should be profitable if their quarterly revenue is at 52-55 million, by right this last Q operationally they should be profitable (But, their higher cost of sales is a serious question mark at the moment... Maybe they putting in the costs of the so called handphone business into this Q?)

Again, if you exclude the 15 million writeoff, notion's operational loss for this year is 1 million only. Operationally, they're not far off from breakeven, if you consider the 1st two quarter sales results were horrible average of 42 million per Q. Their last 2 Q results average about 52 million.

To me, the maths is quite simple, they project growth in HDD and Automotive in future Q. And assume camera is stagnant.

As a safety measure, I predict their HDD and Automotive and camera all 3 segment no growth. If they can just maintain this 55 million sales, they should be profitable already with EPS of 3-4 cents.

Any potential growth in sales, or their so called handphone glass business, that's a potential bonus.

However, yes... the senior management track record is not good already to me.
Bad decision on Alcyone, announcements of glass business starting and then announce it delayed, overall I'm a bit more cautious of them now, and will price in a negative management bias overall.

Let's see how it goes then, I'm already in the boat.. oh well.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-26 10:00 | Report Abuse

Up to now, there's still no panic sales. Only a small group sold at 45.5, this is expected I guess.

Posted by Angel_Investor > 2014-11-26 10:04 | Report Abuse

Should wait at 0.40?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-26 10:14 | Report Abuse

The Alcyone I did follow up on, from what I can see, functionally, there's just something wrong with their 'leaching' operation, whatever they mined, they can't extract the silver out. Maybe inexperience, or there's a serious design flaw in their extraction process.. Anyway, we would expect them a senior management with years of being in the 'shares' business to be more prudent especially with 15 million bucks.

I rather they buy physical gold with the 15 million as a hedge, at least it will still be there physically or something. Oh well, rant's over.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2014-11-26 10:54 | Report Abuse

You can slowly wait Angel, I q-d 44.5 last night too hoping for some panic sales. No luck until now :/

As I say, there's a point where it's RIDICULOUS to sell anymore. Selling below 48 is a ridiculous price, and a move that'll just make the seller lose $.

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-11-26 23:01 | Report Abuse

Thank you Guys

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2014-12-01 17:03 | Report Abuse

this is hopeless counter...

Posted by beso > 2014-12-01 17:11 | Report Abuse

bcos company continue making loss so hopeless

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-12-02 15:04 | Report Abuse

Now Notion look interesting. I'll go in at 38 cents.

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-12-05 22:40 | Report Abuse

Just another reason why Notion is bleeding :
Tests show modern SSDs can handle a thousand years of use : http://www.engadget.com/2014/12/05/ssd-2-petabytes-of-data/

Posted by tklim > 2014-12-07 17:49 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/65865.jsp

Posted by UndukNgadau > 2014-12-10 15:29 | Report Abuse

WOW! 40.5 cents, only 2.5cents to my target price. Keep the faith

Posted by bohmiah > 2014-12-14 09:05 | Report Abuse

hmmm ... getting interesting if the price keep dropping :)

Posted by undukngadau > 2015-01-05 12:51 | Report Abuse

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-30584123

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-07 10:32 | Report Abuse

for all the notion bashing going on here, anyone read the latest announcement? Tabung Haji buying in... :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-07 10:33 | Report Abuse

Like i always say, when you cut loss, you're making someone else gain...
I'm still holding on :P

Posted by invester > 2015-01-07 10:34 | Report Abuse

Yes. I also notice that Tabung Haji buying in end of last year.

Posted by invester > 2015-01-22 09:39 | Report Abuse

Val-Elta, how do you think about the propose share buy back which seeking the approval in coming AGM? The share buy back might be able to push up the price since recently the volume is small and seller is not hurry to sell out their shares with low price

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-22 14:15 | Report Abuse

No la, it's just a proposal.. I think proposal will normally be approved, but it doesn't mean they will buy back their shares.
Previously Notion did buy back A LOT of shares, but that was when they cash rich. The Silver ex-investment, can actually be better used doing share buy back... too late for that now. I think technology stock will have some news to push it up, with Win 10 gaining more attention. But, realistically, I think notion 2nd Q results only we will see the effect of their glass business?

1st Q result, since alcyone is completely written off, expect notion to return to profitability, but maybe not by much.

Posted by invester > 2015-01-22 14:27 | Report Abuse

Val-Elta, thanks for the response. Actually to my understanding, the glass business is also a target area for them to look into. However, there is no further announcement later where they have secured the business. So, it is still an un-known situation. But of course, I wish they can get this business.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-22 14:57 | Report Abuse

again, the glass business, don't expect too much from it. It's more like "since we have too many CNC machine sitting there doing nothing, might as well do some glass machining" I don't expect it to be on high margins, BUT...

Rather than having machines doing nothing, and workers idling, at least using them for 1% margin AND to cover depreciation of those assets will help a lot.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-22 14:59 | Report Abuse

TH buying in, maybe Notion management made some investors briefing to them. Who knows, something maybe cooking up. TH bought about 800,000 shares that's about 320k, small change to TH i guess, but it's still sizeable amount.

Posted by undukngadau > 2015-01-23 11:06 | Report Abuse

Wow. Notion got real POWER! with healthy volumes

Posted by Lee Wehc Taik > 2015-01-24 20:24 | Report Abuse

Actually, why technology sector can go up? Is it because USD strengthen?
According to annual report 2013, I am a bit shocked to see that USD strengthen by 5 % will decrease profit of Notion of about 6.4% (my calculation), With last year bad result. Do you all think notion can survive?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-26 14:14 | Report Abuse

Hi, Lee you will need to dig deeper for more info on that. It's because of their forex hedging when RM was stronger against USD like 2-1 years back. Back then they hedge USD to RM3.20 when RM was stronger.

HOWEVER... If you followed their Q reports, and do your own studies. They did made a contrary hedge last Q iirc, there's one Q which saw a spike in hedge amt, and it was profitable, suggesting they hedged the other way. And as the Kenanga report also states, their hedging position will only be fully exited in 3 -4 more months, assuming they didn't counter hedge again.

It's quite surprising people will jump into conclusions and I think your posting is very uninformed. It's not gonna be perfect for this Q and next, but it's not as bad as you say. YoY, and QoQ on a yearly basis, I'm quite certain Notion will be profitable, but as I always say, the 1st and maybe 2nd Q's result will only be slightly profitable.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-26 14:15 | Report Abuse

I always see people say Buy buy buy, or sell sell sell. Or die die die, or huat huat huat in the forums... makes me wonder how many % are actually klse gamblers, who don't make informed decisions...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-26 14:40 | Report Abuse

Disclaimer, I've been and still is Notion shareholder, so read it with bias :P

Overall, here's what my educated/informed guess is.
Assuming there's no external factor like, sudden big finance collapse like 08.

Year end result for 2014, Notion loss RM25,639m,
Please note the 25 million write off for their silver investment.......
If you take that off, notion only loss RM639 operationally, to put it in very very simplistic math.

So, assuming all things is equal, no growth from existing business (automative, HDD, [very unlikely SLR rebound]), no forex benefit (good USD to RM for 2nd half), no new business (glass), it's gonna be RM639 loss.

That's the worst case scenario I believe. So Lee, to answer you, Notion will survive.

A more likely one is

1st Q
Breakeven, or slightly profitable around 500k-1mil? This depends on if they counter hedge again or not to balance their existing RM3.20 to USD hedge, which I believe they did previously, although I must say this hedging thing is like betting that I don't like.

2nd Q
Shld be the same with 1st Q, maybe better as it goes along.

3rd Q.
If RM still same exchange rate, serious upside gonna happen here just from forex gains alone. Forex gain at least 8% can be expected? If not more.
Assuming their glass business kicks in, again as i suspect they are loosing money from idle machines through depreciation of CNC machines/workers salary. Even if their net profit margin on glass is low, most important is, able to cover the depreciation losses, and salary of workers. Overall, I think the profitable Msian operations is covering for the depreciation loss in their Thai operations which has their main Nikon assembly line, thus the RM629 loss. Even if the glass business is done at 0% net profit, if they are able to at least cover the depreciation, rental, workers etc of their Thai operations, that should be significant.

4th Q.
More of the same with 3rd Q.

Overall outlook.
Pros.
Potential to gain new HDD customer.
Windows 10 to bring excitement for PC industry?
Forex gain.
Automotive segment is growing nicely, being a new segment, trend will continue, as car gets more safety features.
They're in talk with another HDD customer, which is great news.
(unlikely >> some minor peanuts gain from alcyone? hehe.. just say for fun)

Cons.
My main concern as shareholder is still on a 08 type of financial crisis.
Otherwise, as long as notion management is actively seeking new customers to put the idle CNC machines to use, I do not see any issues.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-26 14:44 | Report Abuse

This is done for my personal review of my holdings of notion, and I believe is well balanced, supported with numbers, and also highlighting worst and best case scenario, I'm still accumulating and plan to continue accumulate during this 4x period. Selling now, is similar to selling at bottom, and you will only make other people gain money on the upside.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-01-27 07:44 | Report Abuse

Hi Val-Elta: thks for the great analysis again. Yours is more relevant to us as compared to those of Kenanga.

I am same with you, have been and still is the shareholder of Notion, not a negligible portion of my total portfolio. After many years of portfolio cleaning and switching, almost all old holdings in my portfolio are now in positive region even after the big correction last month, except this one which I descrbided it as my lemon stock. Ha, I just cannot understand why I do not switch it out as I did on many others but naively keep the lost from 1.20(or maybe 1.60, too long till cannot remember) to the current 0.46. I see myself just like “阿嬌：我太㣭，太天真”。Maybe sometimes, I just need to be naive to balance the exciting life in share market.

I do agree selling now is equal to selling at near bottom. Buy? It is too sour for me.

Cheers, and thks again for your consistent "gate-keeping" on notion.

Posted by invester > 2015-01-27 14:46 | Report Abuse

This is interesting "on the online smartphone-selling business (by sourcing mid-end models phones from Chinese Smartphone players with own-brands labelling; minimal capex are required), management noted that it is ready to kick start anytime soon. Management is targeting to sell 50,000 phones at the first year of launching"... quoted from Kenanga research

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-28 13:13 | Report Abuse

I'm not too fancy into their smartphone selling business. Again, they're going into a totally different segment which has its own headache. Actually, I'd rather if they cancel their intention to do that. It's NOT EASY, and I foresee a lot of headache over it. 1st of, which market segment you want to penetrate? Also, do you have the support lines for warranty, or the firmware update issues? A lot of challenges. I've personally been in a company who did rebranding/resale.. not good story.
Actually, I will email them to don't do it.. But I doubt they will listen.

On to better news. WD has just announced their Q results yesterday.
QoQ, their enterprise HDD sales increased from 7.763m to 8.041m abt 3.5% increase.
So with this info, we can safely say their HDD segment will at least maintain their sales, if not grow by 1-2%

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-01-28 13:46 | Report Abuse

I'd rather senior management/directors to spend their efforts on getting their CNC utilization up. I really believe their hp business will be a wasted effort. It's really really not easy. Even if each phones costs RM100, that'll be 5million.
And once your phones don't sell within 6 months, they're obsolete, and you have to write them off. I'm speaking from personal experience, and really don't feel good about their intentions on this. Risk reward is just not there.

Posted by invester > 2015-01-28 14:32 | Report Abuse

This is something that make me really worry about Notion. Selling own branded smartphone business might be another mistake after silver. I rather them to provide parts to smartphone maker than putting their own brand to sell it.

Posted by bohmiah > 2015-01-29 19:07 | Report Abuse

agreed with you guys on the smartphone business ... is Notion able to challenge XiaoMi, Lenovo and Samsung, Apple??? Dont think they have the capability to fight with the giants ... look at nokia and blackberry

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-02-03 23:13 | Report Abuse

Interesting... seems like they did hedge the other way now... USD gain, means they gain more, page 84. The figures on the right is for 2013

If this is true, they'll gain a lot from the forex then.. we can only confirm by end of Feb when they release their 1st Q result.

United States Dollar:
- strengthened by 5% 869 (965)
- weakened by 5% (869) 965

Posted by invester > 2015-02-04 10:47 | Report Abuse

I think this is true only after the USD currency hedging position at RM3.20/USD to expire in mid-2015

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-02-05 13:15 | Report Abuse

But the AL says their current forex position as of Sept 2014, so I'm also not sure.
But somewhere in the last 2 Q results, I don't know which d, even when USD keep rising, that quarter they did made forex gain from their hedging.. which means they hedge the other way already. Anyway, will we c their Q result b4 or after CNY?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-02-13 14:22 | Report Abuse

Electricity tariff reduction will make for an interesting march-june Q report.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-02-25 19:30 | Report Abuse

Q result is out, supposed to be profitable 10 million, but the forex lost 17 million, overall 1st Q lost 5 million.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-02-25 20:00 | Report Abuse

hopeless, better switch to JCY

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-02-25 20:23 | Report Abuse

Forex rate from 30/09 RM3.28 (Outstanding hedging contracts, RM369,976,000)
Forex rate 31st December RM3.49/USD (Outstanding hedging contracts, RM216,469,000)
Forex increase of 21 cents, from previous close = -17million losses.

Assume all things equal, guessing Notion's next Q results.

Now forex at 3.60, 11 cent increase but outstanding position reduced by 1/3.
If March 31st RM close at 3.60 = (Half the forex loss 11cent vs 21cent, * 2/3 outstanding position) = forex losses of 5.28 million, profit of 10million = net profit 4.7million

March 31st RM close at 3.70 = (Loss 21cent, * 2/3 outstanding position) = forex losses of 11.28 million. 10-11.28m = net loss of 1million

Where the forex goes, notion goes.... the most ironic part of it all is, if RM strengthen after March/June... :S

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-03-22 21:47 | Report Abuse

.....tomorrow NAIK banyak sikit ar......................

Kita goreng sama dia!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by AyamJahat > 2015-03-23 12:59 | Report Abuse

I suggest you privatize it, may be a GO of 55 sen, or even 50 sen will be enough.

Then switch to GLOTEC (?) to recover losses (?) Ayam Tua said it.

Posted by tnt88 > 2015-03-23 15:08 | Report Abuse

Notion VTec to launch smartphone in May
KLANG (Mar 23): Notion VTec Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), a hard-disk drive component maker, plans to launch its own smartphone brand "Trendi" by May this year.

Executive chairman Thoo Chow Fah said the launch, scheduled by the first week of May, aimed to create a new revenue stream for the Notion VTec (fundamental: 1.55; valuation: 1.2).

"The group will sell about 1,000 units of its new budget smartphone. We intend to price it below RM500.

"It will depend on how the market respond to it to decide whether further investment is required," Thoo told reporters after the Notion VTec's annual general meeting today.

Thoo did not disclose the identity of Notion VTec's business partners for the development of the smartphone, merely saying the product would be sourced and assembled in China.

"If the market response is good, we are targeting to sell 50,000 to 100,000 units a year moving forward," he said.

Meanwhile, Thoo expects Notion VTec's financials to improve in current financial year ending Sept 30, 2015 (FY15). He said a weaker ringgit against the US dollar augured well for the export-based company.

Thoo said he expected Notion VTec to post a narrower net loss for FY15.

"I believe we will see a smaller loss for FY15 because our foreign currency hedges are expiring in April, May, and June," he said.

Thoo conceded that Notion VTec did not expect the ringgit to weaken to current levels when the company hedged the local currency against the US dollar at 3.20 about a year ago.

Today, the ringgit was traded at 3.6845 versus the US dollar compared to 3.2230 in September last year.

At current rates, Thoo said Notion VTec could enjoy higher income when it exports its products and was confident to turn the group’s bottom line around by FY16.

In FY14, Notion VTec recorded a net loss of RM27.74 million compared with a net profit of RM20.09 million in FY13.

Today, Notion VTec shares settled flat at 38 sen at 12.30pm for a market capitalisation of RM101.9 million.

The stock had fallen 16% this year, underperforming the FBM KLCI's 3% rise.

(Note: The Edge Research's fundamental score reflects a company’s profitability and balance sheet strength, calculated based on historical numbers. The valuation score determines if a stock is attractively valued or not, also based on historical numbers. A score of 3 suggests strong fundamentals and attractive valuations.)