Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2016-02-14 12:35 | Report Abuse

yoo val-elta bro, diversified in which sector?

Posted by master_tan > 2016-02-16 21:27 | Report Abuse

When QR coming out ?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-17 13:15 | Report Abuse

been busy~ maybe I'll do a more detailed writeup in a couple days if I can find some time for it :) 19th-24th should be Q result time.
Healthy accumulation happening now though

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-02-18 08:49 | Report Abuse

Yes, the same

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2016-02-18 20:03 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5003137
EPS 1.16 cent, tomorrow goreng!!!

Posted by ImCK > 2016-02-18 20:28 | Report Abuse

hdd demand increasing next is genetec?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-18 20:29 | Report Abuse

Q result just out. Profit of 3.1m/1.16 EPS. Nothing to shout at I guess, below my expectations.

Some items of note.
Front loaded items.
*Taxation is much higher at 3.6million for this Q. Reversal from the tax gain provision when derivatives losing money. Moving on, this item should stabilize and reduce a lot in future without additional wild swing in the forex.

Without this tax item(which will be reduced next month) actual profit should be closer to 5m for 2 EPS.

-Negative points
*Opex is higher at 16m, need further clarification on the items here (bonus, factory relocation from sold factory to own factory costs?) need to see this going down in next Q, otherwise, it'll be a problem. From past year results, 4Q's average OPEX is at 10m... so it's definitely on the high side here.


-Positive points
Overall sales is stabilizing around 60m per Q at sub 4.2X to USD.
Automotive segment is growing
Inventory write off has been reduced.
With factory relocation completed, future will have savings from factory rental.

Posted by sherlock > 2016-02-19 02:18 | Report Abuse

1st Q profit was "hidden" by factory relocation cost,part of production line down temporary for relocation,inventory write off and abnormal tax provision.

kenanga will issue their analysis report soon,but i think their will continue to write bad comment.their never read and analyze operational statistic comprehensively,simply used headline figure to create the whole story.

so far,i strong believe Val-Elta is fair and the best analyst for notion.

Posted by sherlock > 2016-02-19 10:44 | Report Abuse

bingo..as i guess..kenanga said notion will incur 2.4m losses this year due to FOREX LOSSES.what a funny comment,i am wondering do their analyst know how to calculate P/L of FOREX HEDGING correctly?

Val-Elta,probably u should write a more comprehensive report on notion.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-19 11:37 | Report Abuse

Ah.. just read Kenanga's report.. sorry a bit late on finding that.

Posted by Fam_Jenny_Tua > 2016-02-19 19:58 | Report Abuse

who are you?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-20 18:24 | Report Abuse

Anyway, having digested things a bit more, it's not all that doom n gloom. Dissapointment is because of too high expectations, not entirely becaused of the reaults. While the prospect of waiting another q is definitely not fun and testing, at least it's a positive step in the correct direction. Based on past quarters, Notion 1st Q is considered as a weaker quarter, so if a weak quarter already 60m++ in revenues, a good quarter can even break 70m.
While it certainly seems like a lot of reasons to justify their higher costs.
Derivative losses, machine n inventory write offs, n now deferred tax and bonus payment for the opex. The next q should b an accurate indicator for their performance moving on...

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-02-20 19:13 | Report Abuse

A little too much excuses. I'll be coming to the annual general meeting

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-20 20:31 | Report Abuse

@@ give them highly paid directors a good goreng ya

Posted by chriswang > 2016-02-21 16:06 | Report Abuse

yaya, write to Nikon 9.44%, Lembaga Tabung Haji 7.21%, EPF 1.73%, Yayasan Sarawak 1.09%. ask them join in to vote against the remuneration. many shareholders are not happy with the performance and fed up with the long waiting also i think. voice out and i think sure they will kena goreng gao gao. hehe and actually the main directors are not holding a lot of shares. got chance if the remainders vote against.

there is smth like Ordinance Against Excessive Remuneration too. work it out.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2016-02-21 18:52 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/anonymousinvestor/91559.jsp

Posted by GoodNew > 2016-02-22 17:43 | Report Abuse

Please

Posted by Evan Looi > 2016-02-23 17:32 | Report Abuse

investor's behavior

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-23 21:10 | Report Abuse

Just wondering who sold at this low level of pricing and still can make profit ....?????

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-23 23:31 | Report Abuse

If they r trader/gambler/speculator they may want to sell and hope to buy lower.
If they are loaded on margin, they may want to take profit, or sell on margin call when dropping.
If they are t+7 buyers, they have to sell after q result announced.

Previously I will try to calm the panic by posting info on why you shouldn't sell now, but I kinda give up on that d... Lol

As I always say, if you cut loss, someone else will gain.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-23 23:40 | Report Abuse

The fear is there because of uncertainty in the profitability. But whose information do you base to come to that conclusion? If you base your buy n sell decision on analyst calls, then good luck to you.
I'm not gonna spoon-feed other forumers anymore, just try to understand the business, go deeper n try to predict their profitability.
You will see value in it.
Personally, my prediction is wrong because of two things.
1) I didn't calculate the impact of the deffered tax losses, the impact of last q's taxation gain being balanced with a higher taxation loss this Q.
2) bonus payout to employees in December? (To be confirmed, in AR/AGM)

Both items adds up to ard 5-7m in less profits....
I learn from this and will carry the knowledge to my next q prediction for notion which I won't say tok much anymore

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-23 23:42 | Report Abuse

I'm a FA investor, as long as it improves Q by Q, why sell?

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-24 10:23 | Report Abuse

Selling pressure dinimishing ... Good sign for Notion.

Posted by Ayat > 2016-02-24 17:18 | Report Abuse

Ayam Tua is great. He said buy PUC 8.5 sen, now already 10.0 sen. Up 18%...

Idiot... Val-Elta

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-24 17:45 | Report Abuse

Arr Ayat sincere PUC is so good then sale all your Notion shares and buy PUC lor ... What so big deal ?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-25 13:54 | Report Abuse

Poor val-elta have to buy some more :(

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-25 19:55 | Report Abuse

Tmr buy back 80% that I sold that day... I foreseen down side is limited as it approaching the 7 years low price .

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-25 20:07 | Report Abuse

Val - Elta why worry to buy more .... I think they want you to earn more ... Hahaha!

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-26 11:22 | Report Abuse

can see the selling pattern, is very very short sighted sellers exiting.
the seller cancel his Q at 395 and then add to sell 390. Totally no holding power, and I'm sure he's just selling at 390 without any profit, and lose the trading fees.

Short term gamblers selling to other short term gamblers, who has higher risk of cutting lost etc....

Waiting your buying power to buy back klse, to stabilize it :P

Now the sharks/buyers are waiting anymore ppl want to cut loss or not. Once all the short term sellers exit, any buying attempts will push it up fast again

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2016-02-26 20:19 | Report Abuse

Agm 23 March. Let's go.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-26 22:26 | Report Abuse

Think I'll drop by if I can take leave :)

Posted by Ayat > 2016-02-27 18:55 | Report Abuse

Sure, just treat it as a FD, go and have a holiday, and come back 2 years from now.

Posted by Ayat > 2016-02-29 18:07 | Report Abuse

Ayam Tua & Val-Elta, or you have insider news? hehheeeee....

appear to be collecting or SECRETLY selling?

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-29 21:26 | Report Abuse

Hahaha I have already finished collecting back 80% shares that I disposed that day, now just waiting for the share price to rebound... : )

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-02-29 21:29 | Report Abuse

Ayat Ayat ... Just look at your PUC already drop back to 8 cents only .

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-02-29 23:55 | Report Abuse

Stupid... Sell?? Dont make me laugh.

Posted by Evan Looi > 2016-03-01 15:24 | Report Abuse

holding

Posted by Ayat > 2016-03-01 15:59 | Report Abuse

Yayaya... let's sell notion and sell puc, ok Ayma Tua?

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-03-02 21:23 | Report Abuse

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1713342

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-03-03 12:20 | Report Abuse

Well, at least he's performing his 'IR' role now.... I think this could be a sign that something will happen, at least in quarterly result wise, or other developments. He's been very quiet for the past 6-9 months already.

Posted by klsefighter > 2016-03-04 21:56 | Report Abuse

Someone keep accumulating notion at current level ... Should have show next 1 - 2 weeks time .... Expect the share price will go above 50 cents ... Just my 2 cents ... Kikiki!

Posted by master_tan > 2016-03-07 13:56 | Report Abuse

hope coming qtr earning got surprise for us....been waiting for so long.....

Posted by cutie > 2016-03-07 16:34 | Report Abuse

the hedging of the US dollar...how is it? Will it be better results since the US dollar is going down.?

Posted by blacktulip > 2016-03-07 23:03 | Report Abuse

If the ringgit keeps strengthening till the end of march we shd be looking at some derivative gains. Even at 4.00 we can expect a few millions gains.

Posted by master_tan > 2016-03-07 23:06 | Report Abuse

yes, at early Jan, USD forex is at 4.40, and if end of Mar RM strengthening to 4.00, we can expect derivative gain of ~3mil.

Posted by cutie > 2016-03-12 21:07 | Report Abuse

so little ? 40 sen difference.

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-03-12 21:54 | Report Abuse

the hedges have already expired, not much remaining, also the latest quarter was 4.20 and not 4.40.

Posted by blackout87 > 2016-03-12 22:44 | Report Abuse

expired right at the wrong time, management should be re hedging now

Posted by Val-Elta > 2016-03-13 23:35 | Report Abuse

There is still 55m hedge outstanding. A 5% gain is still about 2.5m. Hedge to me is always a 50% 50%, the banks provide d hedge contract want to profit too right? They won't so stupid give hedge contract that they sure lose one...

Posted by cutie > 2016-03-18 11:26 | Report Abuse

ringgit is 405 now..Notion is going to gain a lot from the hedging, is it?