as EBITDA only 2x of market cap,and with sustainable profitability,notion vtec was deeply underestimated by the market.
my prediction is:
1.)Net profit of FY2016 should ended around RM13-15m,equal to EPS of 4.8-5.5cen,due 2nd half result should improve further after consolidate of business operation,stronger USD and elimination of hedging losses.
2.)Net profit of FY 2017 should improved further to RM 20-22m,equal to EPS of 7.4-8.2cen,due to depreciation charges reduce further after two consecutive year of low capex spending,pick up of automotive business and assume USD maintain at RM4.00-4.10 level.
3.)net cash position should improve to RM22m(8.2cen) at the end of FY 2016(after considering settlement of hedging losses),and RM52m(19.25cen) at the end of FY 2017(assuming 60% of EBITDA convert into cash,and without major investment activity.).so,dividend is highly possible at the end of FY2016.
if you are trying to bet on turnaround story.notion is a good choice.
bad result?not really,headline losses mainly due to inventory write off(rm3.6m),derivative settlement losses(rm3.2m) and deferred taxes provision(rm6.4m).
to evaluate notion's performance,EBITDA will be better indicator,which stood at RM10.9m even after deducted items above.
if share price drop to RM0.38-0.385 level due to current losses,i think that will be good chance to re-collect.
USD to RM 4.19 now, notion hedging is already finished 100% mid august. So for september month their earning should be fully at 4.10+ range.
USD to RM stronger reason is because china lowered their currency, this is not just a short term thing.. And yes, I'm still around, although I dont say much now :)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sherlock
306 posts
Posted by sherlock > 2016-05-26 00:24 | Report Abuse
as EBITDA only 2x of market cap,and with sustainable profitability,notion vtec was deeply underestimated by the market.
my prediction is:
1.)Net profit of FY2016 should ended around RM13-15m,equal to EPS of 4.8-5.5cen,due 2nd half result should improve further after consolidate of business operation,stronger USD and elimination of hedging losses.
2.)Net profit of FY 2017 should improved further to RM 20-22m,equal to EPS of 7.4-8.2cen,due to depreciation charges reduce further after two consecutive year of low capex spending,pick up of automotive business and assume USD maintain at RM4.00-4.10 level.
3.)net cash position should improve to RM22m(8.2cen) at the end of FY 2016(after considering settlement of hedging losses),and RM52m(19.25cen) at the end of FY 2017(assuming 60% of EBITDA convert into cash,and without major investment activity.).so,dividend is highly possible at the end of FY2016.
if you are trying to bet on turnaround story.notion is a good choice.