Is the spike up these 2 days, from traders who will pump and dump once they hit their target, or is it from longer term investor who will hold.. that's the question now...
i believe notion wil be one of the star performer in 2017,driven by significant improvement in profit,stronger free cash flow and higher dividend. but,as usual,i don suggest contra play.
Let's see how it goes, big volume can be destructive volume as well if those volumes are from weak hands. You make your buy n sell decisions based on your best decision, so let it be ba....
announced another 1 cen dividend,almost 100% payout in FY2016,with anticipated much better FY2017,notion should gradually transform into a high yield stock.good time ahead hopefully.
For those buying in at 63cent plus, mind to share why r u buying it and what TP u want to sell? Assume u want a 10% profit at least, ur sell price would b 70c, and assume the buyer at 70c also want a 10% profit, he would sell at 77cent. Is 77++ cent possible at this moment? I think it may have gotten overbought with the sudden interest in this share. Just my 2cent here
Stuck with old shares costing 71.13c average. So far, only received the 2013 dividend & waiting for the 2016 one. Will hold on for my personal target of 99c & will be paid another dividend while I wait.................................
at 64cen,notion's MARKET CAP/FY2016 EBITDA only stood at 3.3x,certainly one of the lowest in bursa.currently,the MARKET CAP/ EBITDA for a blue chips was between 10-20x(depends on sectors,some even higher),for small cap(manufacturers),we talk about 5-7x.
i do not know whether notion could continue going up within short term,but i do believe more upside to come in longer term,especially if 1st q 2017 result is good, or announce more dividend in coming quarters.
sherlock Where do u get "currently,the MARKET CAP/ EBITDA for a blue chips was between 10-20x(depends on sectors,some even higher),for small cap(manufacturers),we talk about 5-7x." Share pls.
king36,i calculated the valuation myself, i cant share all here cos the list is too long,so i just list down few company which is relevant here.
MARKET CAP(as at last friday)/ EBITDA:
inari=16x gtronic=22x(9m annualised) mpi=3.6x(not so accurate due to its EBITDA included big portion of minority interest,and future EBITDA is expected to fall) unisem=5.4x(9m annualised) jcy=11.5x dufu=3.66x(9m annualised) kobay=5.6x pohuat=6x(different industry) flbhd=7.09x(different industry) vs=7.65x notion=3.3x
as you can see,notion had the lowest MARKET CAP/ EBITDA even after recent rally,company which is comparable to notion are MPI and dufu,but bear in mind that the EBITDA of MPI included big part of minority interest which should be excluded,so the actual valuation should between 5-6x.
for dufu,even though the valuation is only 10% higher than notion,but the fact is notion's FCF is almost 100% higher than dufu,and most importantly,dufu had stop expand for years,it is quite difficult to maintain earning growth going forward unless USD keep appreciate,but for notion,even though it is also benefited from strong USD,but it just started a new plant in johor last month,decrease in depreciation charges and elimination of hedging losses and reduces inventory write-off will also boost future earning.
so,if we used foward 1 year EBITDA as indicator,valuation of notion should atless 30% discount to dufu based on last friday prices,i foresee notion to achieve EBITDA of RM62-65m in FY2017,and RM32-36m for dufu.
Heart pain sure got la well, but u all should know i've been talking abt notion when it's <40 cents.. I exited with 50% gain already... so it's still a good profit. Even if I didn't sold at 57, i would still have sold at 61 cent, so i'm quite sure I won't hit the 66.5 cent max which happened today.
You can't always get the bottom, and can't always get the top. Once u accepted this fact, there's no need to heart pain.
Anyway, just be careful for those coming in now. As I don't understand people who sold it < 40 cents all the past year, I don't quite understand why people is buying it above 60 cents at this moment, with what information we know. Unless the buyer have insider information la, then that's a different case.
The risk/reward is more like 50% 50% now.. you may gain 10%-20% but u can lose 10-20% as well.
A 20% gain from 60 cents is 72 cents price. 20% loss will send it back to 50 cents.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
cheer76
346 posts
Posted by cheer76 > 2017-01-03 23:20 | Report Abuse
paperlane, is notion a buy?