Insert Insert Genetec Technology Bhd 2QFY23: Record-breaking quarter ■ 1HFY3/23 net profit beat our expectations at 58% of FY23F core NP due to stronger-than-expected net margin in 2QFY23, but in line with consensus. ■ We expect Genetec to record stronger yoy results in 2HFY23F, backed by its robust order book in EV & ES and favourable forex movements. ■ We raise FY23-25F EPS by 3-7%. Reiterate Add with a higher RM4.60 TP. 2QFY3/23 net profit rose 35% qoq; beat expectations 2QFY3/23 revenue declined 3.5% qoq due to a delay in automation line delivery for its hard disk drive (HDD) segment from Sep 22 to Oct 22 amounting to about RM5m. Despite the lower sales, EBITDA margin expanded by 13.2% pts qoq to 42.1% in 2QFY23 due to 1) a better sales mix coming from higher engineering change request (ECR) service related to electric vehicle (EV) & energy storage (ES) segment, which offers higher margins than production line segment, and 2) favourable forex movement. Overall, 2QFY3/23 net profit surged 35% qoq to RM25.1m, despite a higher effective tax rate of 8.2% (+4.1% pts qoq). Note that this was the highest quarterly net profit in the company’s history since its listing. 1HFY23: driven by higher HDD and EV & ES contribution On a cumulative basis, 1HFY3/23 revenue and net profit rose 44.5% and 78%, respectively. The group attributed the stronger performance to: i) higher contribution from HDD (+5.6x yoy) and EV & ES (+6% yoy) segments, ii) a better sales mix and iii) favourable forex movements from the depreciation in Ringgit against US$. 1HFY23 EBITDA margin rose 6.8% pts yoy to 35.4%. Overall, 1HFY23 net profit jumped 78% yoy to RM43.5m. Strong growth prospects backed by RM256m order book Genetec’s order book stood at RM256.4m as at end-Sep 2022, out of which 98% are related to the EV & ES segment. We gathered from the management that Genetec added c.RM79m worth of new orders in the quarter mainly in the EV & ES segment, including a second formation line from its US EV customer. In addition, the group is also tendering for additional formation, regenerative braking system and electronic control unit (ECU) lines for FY3/24F. Genetec’s tender book stood at c.RM237m as of end-Sep 22. Moreover, we also learnt that Genetec is working on developing its in-house battery energy storage system (BESS) as part of its new growth strategy. The group plans to complete the BESS prototype by end-2022 and begin pilot run deployment in CY23F. Reiterate Add; TP raised to RM4.60 We raise our FY23-25F EPS by 3-7% to account for: i) higher sales from HDD and EV & ES segments, ii) a more profitable sales mix and iii) favourable forex. Accordingly, our TP rises from RM4.30 to RM4.60, based on a lower 31x CY24F P/E, in line with the Malaysian automated test equipment (ATE) sector’s 5-year mean P/E, (vs. 35x previously; 0.5 s.d. above Malaysian ATE sector mean), in view of the weak sentiment in the global technology sector. We also roll over our valuation to end-2023F - CgsCimb 29 Nov 2022
Tq i know is on 30/11/22.typing error.why i free some tips here because of money wise collecting 5 figures in total.the stock broking in i3 also benefit.
Genetec is in the right industry and growing business. Should go back to it's ATH eventually. Always good to pick up some every time Nasdaq and tech crash..
Tesla drop 70% year to date and this Genetec A Baby step just need one of his customer reject the equipment and refuse payment to send this company to bankrupcy.
All this company profit is in trade receivable: RM 176,769,000. Other receivable: RM 23,047,000. Inventories: RM 43,908,000.
"Elon Musk has a pathological problem with the truth," said Gordon Johnson, one of the largest critics of Tesla among analysts. "When people say he's a genius and innovator, it's based on all his promises he never lives up to."
Johnson said Tesla shares will have a much steeper fall ahead, once it starts being priced like other automakers rather than on its promises. He said that for Tesla to hit its growth targets it needs to be building new plants almost every year, but that new factories in Germany and Texas that opened in spring are still not operating at full capacity. And he said that its plant in China has had to scale back production due to weak sales in the market in the face of the Covid restrictions.
"Demand in the US has collapsed," he said. "Two months ago, your wait time was two or three months. Now you can get one immediately. They're going to build more cars than they sell for a third straight quarter. It's the definition of excess capacity."
I read this wisdom writing from a top article in i3investor
2. Long Term Investing is Hard
The biggest reasons more people do not practice long term investing are that –
It flies in the face of anything taught in business schools – that is, short termism – where most influencers/experts come from, It requires a painful degree of patience because it is only over long periods of time that the market eventually gravitates toward value, Life spans of businesses and their competitive advantage periods, on an average, are shortening, Our attention spans and holding periods are shrinking, and Noise is magnifying.
Given all of this, long term investing has become an increasingly difficult and contrarian endeavour. And so, not many investors have the ability or the wherewithal to practice it.
In fact, most people participating in the stock market don’t even understand what they are doing. This is especially when making money gets quick and easy, and they are doing great at it.
Like Aesop’s wolf in sheep’s clothing, they play a role contrary to their real character, which often leads them to the slaughterhouse.
However, the lack of patience of such people to invest with a long-term horizon creates the opportunity for the few committed to long-term holding periods.
In the battle between impatience and patience, the latter wins.
With over nineteen years of practicing long term investing with sincerity and with decent success (purely based on personal standards of success), and seeing a lot of my fellow investors drop out due to their disbelief in its continuity and now ruing their decisions, I can vouch for this powerful idea.
Long term investing is certainly hard, but if you know how to deal well with its hardness, it’s totally worth it.
A trader is making a peanut profit and the trader will not last in a bear market. Mid to longer term investor will perform well. According to research, 90% of the traders are losing money. Think hard on this theory, 90% of the traders are losing money.
In the US, most of the analysts recommended the target price of Tesla is averaging USD250. The present share price is USD112.71. There is still 100% upside for this stock. The sell down on the share price of Tesla on 27/12/2022 is unjustified.
The share price of Genetec is related to EV sector, hence the target price of Genetec at 4.60 recommended by CIMB is still reasonable. The sell down on the share price of Genetec yesterday is unjustified. Do your research and decide yourself.
The general question of the relation of intrinsic value to the market quotation may be made clearer by the following chart, which traces the various steps culminating in the market price. It will be evident from the chart that the influence of what we call analytical factors over the market price is both partial and indirect — partial, because it frequently competes with purely speculative factors which influence the price in the opposite direction; and indirect, because it acts through the intermediary of people’s sentiments and decisions. In other words, the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Rather should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.
If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices?
These questions, of course, answer themselves.
But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period?
Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall.
In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the ‘hamburgers’ they will soon be buying! This reaction makes no sense.
Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.
Source: Warren Buffett, 1997 letter to shareholders
…is almost always more profitable than investing when everything seems certain.
Investors, like most people going about their daily lives, don’t like doubts and uncertainties – like the Covid-19 pandemic, or the Russia-Ukraine crisis. So, we would anything we can to avoid it.
Of course, it’s a good idea to avoid entirely what you can’t totally get your mind around, successful investing is largely about dealing well with uncertainties.
In fact, uncertainties are the most fundamental condition of the investing world.
Seth Klarman wrote in Margin of Safety –
Most investors strive fruitlessly for certainty and precision, avoiding situations in which information is difficult to obtain. Yet high uncertainty is frequently accompanied by low prices. By the time the uncertainty is resolved, prices are likely to have risen.
Investors frequently benefit from making investment decisions with less than perfect knowledge and are well rewarded for bearing the risk of uncertainty. The time other investors spend delving into the last unanswered detail may cost them the chance to buy in at prices so low that they offer a margin of safety despite the incomplete information.
What Klarman suggests is that if you need reassurance and certainty, you’re giving up quite a bit to get it. Like high fees to experts who would predict the future (which you falsely believe as certainty, which it isn’t), or expensive prices for stocks (because everyone knows their future is clear, which often isn’t).
On the other hand, if you can get in the habit of seeking out uncertainty, you’ll have developed a great instinct. Plus, in the long term, it’s highly profitable.
EV sector is not slowing down, it is still a strong growth sector for the next 8 years. Tesla projected to build 20 million EV annually by 2030 (F), I do not think that EV sector will be slowing down. The poor market sentiment in the US is affecting the share price of Tesla. The share price of Tesla is undervalued now, it had dropped 70% from the peak.
In the US, most of the analysts recommended the target price of Tesla is averaging USD250. The present share price is USD112.71. There is still 100% upside for this stock. The selldown on 27/12/2022 is overdone. The EPS of Tesla projected to be 1.25 in Q4 2022 compared against EPS of 1.00 in Q3 2022. There is still a growth of 25% in Q4 2022.
Let us watch for a few days, the share price of Tesla should rebound soon.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,679 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-11-30 15:52 |
Post removed.Why?