Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-10 14:58 | Report Abuse

@Ogopogo i disagree, u can bet on stock market too. u can refer to Nassim Nicholas Taleb's black-swan strategy.. he will buy an out-of-money option, and betting on that event will turn into 1 big return if that unexpected/black swan event occur.

Posted by stevenckheng > 2021-06-10 15:02 | Report Abuse

china come liao, want to eat all the port in malaysia

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-10 15:19 | Report Abuse

@emsvsi exactly, same can be said to RM1.8 sellers too, it is just RM0.11 higher after all, still Rm0.20 below RM2, great discount.

@joshua can be the boss himself afterall, he offered to buy ALL at RM2, got people want sell RM1.81-1.82 of course he will take it. but of course let's hope for more good news, nothing to lose at all this, all needed is a little more patience

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-10 15:27 | Report Abuse

@JoshuaMS7 what good newws??? dont la give hope liddat..

Posted by emsvsi > 2021-06-10 15:55 | Report Abuse

In a few years (or maybe even next year 2022) the Port will be IPO

It will have an enterprise value of at least RM16 bil

If it is a strategic stake sale etc to China, then it would be double that at an EV/EBITDA = 20. MMC's ports straddle the most important maritime route in the world - Asia-Europe and in addition, the Straits of Malacca / Singapore is a highly strategic region for China's ambition (see One Belt One Road). The Chinese are major players and have been very active in port M&A's

For example of port M&A's and EV/EBITDA multiples and China's role, see https://port.today/drewry-chinese-port-investments/

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-06-10 16:06 | Report Abuse

Ride...all...the...way....UPPPPP!!!

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-10 16:13 | Report Abuse

no point talking about mmc's potential now. its all gonna be belongs to TS soon. wats important now is the price now.. hopefully sellers stop selling at 1.80 but higher hehehe

Posted by Ogopogo > 2021-06-10 16:24 | Report Abuse

Bet is when u buy and hope it goes up, invest when you know it will go up. Just my opinion. I don't bet

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-10 16:25 | Report Abuse

@Ogopogo ;) yes.. hence some ppl bet some ppl invest

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-10 16:32 | Report Abuse

I don't bet too, I buy below RM2 because I know the boss will buy back at the end with RM2 at least, that is also if the market price itself still don't up by then

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-10 16:42 | Report Abuse

China got involved in ECRL project, bought a substantial stake in Kuantan Port, given a chance, will grap a big stake in MMC ports or Westport, if given a chance. Their l one road one belt and South China Seas strategic plan n positioning. Personally, think SM will see thru this SCR.

Posted by WenJun > 2021-06-10 16:46 | Report Abuse

They are making sure the closing price to be pushed back down to around 1.80 at closing, so that tomorrow they can buy around 1.80. Some people are being flushed out by these tactics

Posted by sunnyleong > 2021-06-10 17:12 | Report Abuse

1.30 and below buy called invest in my point of view. Buy at 1.80 above, is it called invest? Quite many got a few of this share at below 1.30, but more at 1.83 above.

If weigh out, gain little or not much, or even average out turns out to be losses. The true gainer, u think urself la.

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-10 17:32 | Report Abuse

in case anyone forgot or missed it

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3163886

The Board of MMC (“Board”) wishes to announce that the Company has today received a letter from its controlling shareholder, Seaport Terminal (Johore) Sdn Bhd (“STJSB” or “Offeror”), requesting the Company to undertake a selective capital reduction and repayment exercise pursuant to Section 116 of the Companies Act 2016 (“SCR Offer Letter”).

The Proposed SCR entails a selective capital reduction and a corresponding capital repayment of a proposed cash amount of RM2.00 for each ordinary share in MMC held by all shareholders of MMC (other than STJSB and persons acting in concert with them) whose names appear in the Record of Depositors of MMC as at the close of business on an entitlement date to be determined and announced later by the Board.

The Board, save for Sharifah Sofia Syed Mokhtar Shah who is an interested director, will deliberate on the Proposed SCR and decide on the next course of action. Accordingly, a further announcement will be made in due course after the Board’s deliberation.

Please refer to the SCR Offer Letter for further details on the Proposed SCR.

This announcement is dated 3 June 2021.

Posted by Investor48 > 2021-06-10 19:13 | Report Abuse

I like to bet..
I bet here & win liaw..

Hehe...

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-10 20:58 | Report Abuse

@Investor48 :):):)

Posted by Bullbursa > 2021-06-10 20:59 | Report Abuse

Boss happily buying at 1.80 to save him .20

Posted by Nurimran87 > 2021-06-11 09:30 | Report Abuse

Should we topup at this price coz the privatisation price is at RM 2.00. 10% discount rite?

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-11 09:43 | Report Abuse

@Nurimran87 it depends how much you believe the privatization will be success, are you willing to take the risk in between to earn that 10% discount?

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-11 09:45 | Report Abuse

I would against anyone to go all in this counter at this point by the way, since there are also many other opportunities out there, and no matter how small the risk is, it still doesn't worth for anyone to go all in, not to mention invest with borrowed money that you can't afford to lose

Posted by Redsea > 2021-06-11 10:16 | Report Abuse

I all in already, should i dispose now.

Posted by Nurimran87 > 2021-06-11 10:25 | Report Abuse

Thank You SincereStock for the advised. Really appreciate it. Look like the price stable range 1.80. will see next week how.

Posted by Bullbursa > 2021-06-11 10:28 | Report Abuse

safe to wait..my opinion. It's SM not somebody else.

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-11 10:36 | Report Abuse

@Redsea really hard to decide for you, but at least that is not borrowed money right?

minimal risk, great reward promised IF everything goes as planned. invest at own risk

Posted by Redsea > 2021-06-11 11:32 | Report Abuse

Yes, no margin nor borrowing, all hard earned money :) thanks for your advise and i shall continue hold then.

Posted by rr88 > 2021-06-11 11:38 | Report Abuse

A fund manager is buying everyday at 1.81/1.82. Returns = (2.00 - 1.81) / 1.81 = 10.5%.

A knockout returns 600% better than fd, 300% better than best performing unit trust, considering holding it for less than 6 months.

Posted by iyin666 > 2021-06-11 11:56 | Report Abuse

UBS , CS r collecting at 1.810 n 1.82. Surprise that EPF is not buying as return is about 10.5% for period of less than 6 months.

Posted by beluga > 2021-06-11 13:00 | Report Abuse

This Scheme of Arrangement takes time. Just be patient. If you cannot wait just sell your shares. The shares will still trade on Bursa until the day of the EGM (don’t know when yet). Let’s just say about 3 months (estimate early Sep 2021) to the D-Day (EGM), shareholders voting day.
In one week time or sooner or later, the Company will tell you which financial advisor (FA) they will be engaging to advise on behalf of the company. Then wait for maybe another month for the IFA to issue a Circular to advise the minority shareholders. Etc etc. It takes time to do a valuation on such a big holding company.

At this early stage, there are still risks (that the takeover fail) or few possibilities that can still happen from now until the EGM, although some of them is quite rare or never happened in Malaysia or I think is unlikely.

1) Will PNB being the 20% shareholder find this offer undervalued the company? Will PNB negotiate a higher price? Or reject offer? Or they simply will just accept this offer? This is not the first time PNB deal with the Offeror. MMC bought Northport from PNB and many other transactions. Anyway no news or rumours about where PNB stand regarding this proposed offer yet.

2) The directors exercise an independent business judgment rule with reasonable care, skill and diligence will reject this offer outright. The directors have all the power vested to them by Malaysia company law to throw out the proposed offer regardless what other people (expert or non expert) think if they feel the offer is not in the best interest of the minority shareholders. Then you will see Corporate Governance at its FINEST. Board of directors is given exclusive powers to manage the company then neither individual shareholders nor the general meeting may intervene in or dictate the exercise of that power. They only way if some shareholders do not agree with the directors decision is by voting them out from the board or seek relief through the Court. While they are still the directors, there is nothing anyone can do.

3)Some other shareholder/s or fund/s (known or unknown) accumulate the shares and have enough numbers (either by headcounts or share values) to block the deal. Recently this happened to CCB Bhd , MAA Bhd. This is a more probable scenario. Or they simply just want to arbitrage on the offer price vs market price, which currently at 10% profit. You won’t know unless they made known their intention or have a reliable insider source. If not, is all guessing.

4)Competing bid, a general offer by other local or foreign company. But most likely they will wait until the Directors already issued their recommendation. It is tactical. Because if let’s say Company XYZ really want to buy a strategic stakes in MMC (it is unlikely because at best they can only own maximum 48% which is non-controlling) and offer a competing bid, they will wait until the period where the Directors already issued their opinion and recommendation to the minority shareholders but no choice to present this alternate offer to shareholders. If a hostile bid happen, then just buy popcorn and watch this Greatest Takeover Show ever in Malaysia. Probability is near zero.

5)Regulatory roadblock. It is all hypothetical. Let’s say the government thinks SM alone controls too much of Malaysia businesses… and want to remove some of his monopoly of Malaysia. They may find some ways to block this (ie. Competition law? etc). I am not familiar with the Malaysia regulatory in terms of seaports/airports, afterall these are national interest asset. Example; Malaysia now has a legislation that prohibit any individual to control any bank except those existing one (exemptions to those existing Godfathers).

6)Some minority shareholder/s seek court relief (ie injunction )

Although I think it is unlikely for MMC case, I have seen all sorts of surprises, sometimes the unexpected do happen in the finance investment world. I am also guessing. Nothing is certain. Just be patient, good luck everyone and enjoy the journey.


"There are two types of people: those who try to win and those who try to win arguments. They are never the same."

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-11 15:36 | Report Abuse

@beluga, thank you for presenting the various possibilities for all to think about . I seriously believe SM has already done all necessary ground works which include BOD's support, regulatory support and support from some of the big institutional funds before making the offer. Bear in mind he is a season corporate raiders who has taken so many strategic companies private without any hiccups. He is also very well connect with people in power. The only hurdle he has to clear is minorities' support at EGM.

Posted by beluga > 2021-06-11 16:10 | Report Abuse

7) Miraculously, the IFA may issue a Circular that says the offer is " not fair and not reasonable". Then the directors do not recommend the proposed offer. But we all guess what the IFA opinion is going to be already even without any due diligence done. This is the loophole major shareholder is taking advantage of in almost all of Selective Capital Reduction takeovers in Malaysia. Singapore has already close this legislative loophole few years ago by making any exit offer must be fair AND reasonable to protect the interest of the minority. Malaysia still do not want to close this loophole. It is solely under the prerogative of Securities Commission to change/improve the takeover guidelines. Currently, the "not fair but reasonable" opinion by IFA can fly through our law. We all know this convoluted opinion does not make sense at all and benefit only the major shareholder whose interests were unfairly protected.

8)The resolution fail to meet all the three conditions during the EGM for the privatisation to take place (many shareholders by headcount OR shareholding values vote against the deal).

9)The Offeror may increase or sweeten its offer price to entice shareholders approval (vote) before the EGM if their army sense many going to vote against the resolution. The stake is really high. In my opinion, I think the Offeror really want to privatise MMC by all means because the ports market valuation is going to be sky high if they manage to list it. Currently with MMC is also a listed company, and most of MMC profits derived from its ports division, I think they meet some hurdles to spin off the ports arm through IPO under the Bursa chain listing rule.

The list of possibilities is not exhaustive. But like I said, in my opinion, so far for now, those mentioned possibilities is unlikely. I agree with @Johnzhang. But at the same time we cannot be so certain too. Just like election, it will get more exciting as nearer to the date (EGM) as we get more information. Regardless, this is an interesting high profile takeover case to watch.

Posted by aliyusof > 2021-06-11 16:30 | Report Abuse

Wonderful analysis by Beluga above! TQVM

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-11 16:42 | Report Abuse

The new comers to the stock market can benefit a lot from the knowledge and information presented by @beluga.

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-11 18:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mmc-likely-undertake-shiptoship-transfer-business-yan

"In mid-March last year, MMC hit a multi-year low of 48 sen, leaving many to speculate that Syed Mokhtar and Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB), which via its various units has a 20.97% stake in MMC, would take the company private."

so ppl already speculated this since last year.. TS would already belakang2 kaw tim with PNB kotttt.. and maybe he janji port listing u will get the first right of refusal

Posted by beluga > 2021-06-11 20:33 | Report Abuse

@Inv3st0r69 NO WAY!!! I DISAGREE WITH YOU COMPLETELY !!! (Too bad I can’t insert emoji here!!)

It is illegal to have any side deals. Offeror cannot have a favourable deals with selected shareholders unless otherwise approve by Securities Commission. PNB will not do such thing.

PNB is managing millions of Bumiputeras and Malaysians savings. MILLIONS of naive, innocent, inexperience Malaysian entrusted their savings to PNB to manage and create value. PNB's mandate is crystal clear. PNB will NEVER EVER compromise on integrity in safeguarding the wealth of its unit holders (millions of Malaysians). I believe PNB will fulfil its duty to enhance and create value to all its unit holders. I believe PNB will negotiate for higher offer because they are in the position to do so and will "strive to enrich the lives of Bumiputeras and all Malaysians for the prosperity of the nation."

The question you should ask : Why is PNB not part of the party acting in concert together with the Offeror to takeover?

Happy weekends!

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-11 21:03 | Report Abuse

huhu oh well, lets just wait n see then..

Posted by Good2harvest > 2021-06-11 22:09 | Report Abuse

STJSB already hold 52% (100-52 = 48%) SCR needs 75% from the balance 48%
PNB+EPF+TABUNG HAJI Hold 23-25% equal to 50% vote share
Market currently trade about 180 million shares (from 08 -11/6) I assume before EGM reach to 300mil shares equal to 20% whatever extra are take it as recycle trade. Balance 5% need to cross over is from existing institutions and retails. Therefor, very much likely the vote will go through.
STJSB sure has talked to PNB to get consent before launch the SCR, of course not officially
Otherwise they wont simply launch the SCR). Base on the research reports, highest is AMINVEST RM1.68,lowest is RM1.05 Kenanga. Average is RM1.32. Offer RM2.00 is considered a jackpot to share holders especially in current market. The most uncertain issue is the time to complete. Base on MTDACPI is 6M (7DEC2020-10MAY2021) consider very good. PPG still pending high court reply (02 OCT2020 -until ??) Amprop 07May until ??

Posted by Good2harvest > 2021-06-11 22:19 | Report Abuse

Sometimes cant' just use NTA as reference to judge the offer price whether it is fair or not? PPG NTA is 1.00 they just offer 0.365 still able to gather more than 95% vote during the EGM. Many aspects need to take consideration, like market sentiment, recently years share price performance. For me, I never expected to get offer at RM2.00.

Posted by tatwaiwong > 2021-06-12 00:49 | Report Abuse

4月制造业销售按年飙72.5%
2021年06月11日
（吉隆坡11日讯）今年4月大马制造业销售额，按年飙升72.5%至1306亿令吉，主要幕后功臣为涨332.4%的运输设备和其他制造品。

大马统计局周五发文告指出，4月电子和电器产品销售涨80.2%；石油、化工、橡胶和塑料品则增长49.1%

若按月相比，大马制造业销售则上扬2.9%。

另一方面，今年4月的制造业总雇员人数，按年增加3%至223万5004人；已支付薪资也按年增长8.2%或5亿6020万令吉，至73亿8560万令吉。

同时，每雇员平均销售价值也按年大涨67.4%，至5万8454令吉；每雇员平均薪资则是3304令吉。

Posted by tatwaiwong > 2021-06-12 00:53 | Report Abuse

制造业强势带动 4月IPI大涨50.1%
2021年06月11日
（吉隆坡11日讯）在制造业指数强势增长68%的推波助澜下，今年4月大马工业生产指数（IPI），按年飙涨50.1%。

4月IPI年增幅，也明显高于3月的9.3%。

大马统计局周五发文告指出，除制造业指数外，4月的IPI也受到电力指数和矿业指数的提振，后两者分别按年上升22.9%及14.3%。

制造业指数有此佳绩，归功于运输设备和其他制造业飙涨275.2%；非金属矿产品、基本金属和金属制品增长141%；电子和电器产品涨70.1%。

按年和按月比较，电子和电器产品均取得增长，得益于全球高科技消费品领域，对半导体的需求强劲。

同时，制造业指数里的出口和内需导向领域，也分别增长52.8%及110.9%。

“制造业的增长，也归功于产能利用率，尤其在电子和电器产品、石油、化工、橡胶和塑料产品子行业。”

另一边厢，4月矿业指数实现了今年2月以来的首次正增长，这主要得益于天然气指数涨23.9%、原油和凝析油指数上升2.7%。

未来数月料放缓

穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）周五发文告指出，今年4月IPI如此亮眼，归因于去年同期萎缩32.10%的低基数效应。

同时，穆迪也担忧，横亘早前的不确定因素和下行风险，将阻碍我国复苏步伐。

“考量到政府落实全面封锁措施，导致产能受限，我们估计未来数个月的IPI增长，将有所放缓。”

“我们关注的问题，是将劳动力限制在60%的政策，会对工业生产带来多大不利影响。”

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-12 06:53 | Report Abuse

@Good2harvest,, you have overlooked one condition for a successful SCR ie there must not be 10% or more of the disinterested shareholders voted against. The disinterested portion is 48%. 10% of the 48% is merely 4.8% of the total issued share is enough to stifle the plan or to bargain for better deal.
On the offer price vs NTA, you are correct to say that NTA can not be the sole basis to judge . The quality of the NTA or asset matters a lot more. In MMC's case, the quality of the NTA is very high and the RNAV is much higher.

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-12 09:38 | Report Abuse

@Johnzhang that is the reason to vote against on paper.

but in reality, the reason to vote against is only to hope for higher offer from the boss, while the reason to not vote against is to avoid cancelation of the privatization all together, and the market price fall back to before announcement.

beside, no matter how high it is the quality of NTA, market price has been trading low for long time, it is very contradict we say that the boss should offer to buy at higher price while the market as a whole is unwilling to buy more than RM1.30 for such a long period. let say if PNB want to reject for this reason, why they have no increases their stack by buying from the market all this long, this would have pushes up he price to it's fair value.

anyway, I am just talking as 1 of the bilis that will vote for the privatization at RM2, earning profit more than 90% if the privatization success

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-12 09:45 | Report Abuse

Most of the time, when we value investors, will buy a share that we think worth RM3 at the price of RM1, but do we really only sell it at RM3? in reallity most of us would already sold it before it even reaches RM2, jump to other more undervalued stock, or come back to this stock again in case it's price drop again, from the price we sold previously. That is how we earn money as bilis. we usually don't earn a share to it's full value.

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-12 10:12 | Report Abuse

@SincereStock,. Under normal circumstances what you said make sense. But under special circumstance, we as minorities can take different approach. In this case, it is a matter of who need who most. If SM has a grand plan for MMC's great assets that he can profit substantially, he need enough minorities to to vote for it. Consequently, he will have to pay the price palatable to most minorities. On the contrary, if there is NO benefit for him after paying higher than $2 ( say $2.50), he will abort the plan. My feeling is he has to make sure the privatisation go thru. Simply because he can eventually monetization all the assets one by one after gaining 100% control and the sum afds up substantially more than. SM must share the gains.
@simcereStock, you are very happy to receive $2. Bear in mind that many other long term investors has cost higher the $2 . No reason for thiese investors to give in easily for the benefit of SM solely.

Posted by Inv3st0r69 > 2021-06-12 10:13 | Report Abuse

with the conglomerate discount, the analyst will never value this company like how they value westport. and the discount can be very ridiculous.. so if the shareholders reject this, yeah like what sincerestock said, the price will go back to pre-announcement. another thing is to note, no matter how good the quality of the NTA, there has never been SCR above the NTA, at least since 20118. most of the SCR since 2018 has been not fair but reasonable, and the reasonableness is because the historical has always been below NTA. trust me, IA would tell them to ACCEPT.

Regarding the timeline, assuming no extension sought from TS, after the deliberation by the boad on 15 july, the T will kickstart, and the circular will be out by 35th day, and egm 21 days after that. the issue on the timing is on the application to court and when the company plan to pay the shareholders as they can drag the lodgment of the order too. court process can take long too, can be as fast as 1 month to 3 months. Like pelangi case, the solicitors only made the application to the court long after egm but in mtd, the application was done right after. u can check bursa announcement on this.

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-12 10:26 | Report Abuse

@johnzhang for those who bought above RM2 above and still holding until now, that is investment loss, even us who bought RM2 or even RM1 below is never guaranteed to make profit, anything goes as we can never predict the market. We bilis are all at the same boat now, disregard of our respective entry price, if the privatization fail, we all loss, that's it. but of course, if the boss offered higher price after we vote against RM2, then we all gain.

so back to what I say earlier, the reason to vote against is only to hope for higher offer from the boss, while the reason to not vote against is to avoid cancelation of the privatization all together, and the market price fall back to before announcement. to vote against at this point, it is all betting on the boss next move

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-12 10:32 | Report Abuse

another thing to think for, if the price continue to trade around RM1.80 to RM1.82 until the eventual EGM, not getting higher, then possibly we can conclude that the overall sentiment is to vote for

Posted by stockraider > 2021-06-12 10:33 | Report Abuse

Totally agreed loh....!!

Put it this way they are great consolation mah....now with the privatization in progress at Rm 2.00 loh...!!

Do not forget MMC has stagnant at the range of Rm 0.40 to Rm 1.40 b4 the privatization kick in mah!

The only solution is for PNB trying their luck requesting additional 20 sen from syed mokhtar...but this will cost alot of monies to the takeover party mah!

Posted by SincereStock > Jun 12, 2021 10:26 AM | Report Abuse

@johnzhang for those who bought above RM2 above and still holding until now, that is investment loss, even us who bought RM2 or even RM1 below is never guaranteed to make profit, anything goes as we can never predict the market. We bilis are all at the same boat now, disregard of our respective entry price, if the privatization fail, we all loss, that's it. but of course, if the boss offered higher price after we vote against RM2, then we all gain.

so back to what I say earlier, the reason to vote against is only to hope for higher offer from the boss, while the reason to not vote against is to avoid cancelation of the privatization all together, and the market price fall back to before announcement. to vote against at this point, it is all betting on the boss next move

Posted by Johnzhang > 2021-06-12 10:43 | Report Abuse

@SincereStock,. There is no right or wrong in the approach. It's just how you read and assess the development and what cost position you are in. Although my cost is $0.72, I will vote against it if the offer is lower than $2.50 The same go for investors who held on the share at much higher cost . I think in the context of minorities rights in general. Minorities in Malaysia have been taken for a ride by controlling shareholders for too long . It's shameful and shakeninvestors's confidence in Bursa . That lead to poor performance of Malaysian stock market we see today.

Posted by ykyew11 > 2021-06-12 10:51 | Report Abuse

Same boat here, I have slightly above 500,000 shares and will vote against the current offer.

Posted by SincereStock > 2021-06-12 10:51 | Report Abuse

here is an example of privatization that minorities will all cooperate to vote against

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/chart/5105.jsp

as for mmc, I agree there is no right or wrong, everyone entitled to their own opinions and every share holders that still holding during EGM has the right to vote with their own will, cheers and best of luck to all of us that still holding this shares