Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 14:57 | Report Abuse

Quote by Warren Buffett :

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 14:58 | Report Abuse

So this is wonderful company not. Can find underwear not.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-21 15:00 | Report Abuse

Be calm....
Be rational.....
Be courageous (dare to lose)
Know what is right to do and do it without hesitation

You will never learn the true value of success if you have not failed first

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 15:01 | Report Abuse

Quote by Warren Buffett :

"We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."

Posted by neotang > 2017-06-21 15:04 | Report Abuse

low crude oil price is going to impact petronm earning right?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 15:08 | Report Abuse

Neotang, I believe you not blind, since you type here. Go help yourself please. Don't ask stupid questions

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-21 15:14 | Report Abuse

Newmaster,

What WB said is only applied or true for great companies. If you apply that for pariah company then it is not WB say, it is your own say .
Petronm is the great company that meets the prerequisite conditions of such wisdom

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 15:35 | Report Abuse

@ aseng, so just tell us if you add at this level given the prerequisite conditions?

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-21 15:36 | Report Abuse

ah seng still not pk meh? i heard ah seng keep buying at 8++

Posted by Newbie7229 > 2017-06-21 15:39 | Report Abuse

Where is orbit?
Gone and disappeared?

Posted by superstrong > 2017-06-21 16:28 | Report Abuse

as i say i will buy below 7 , still waiting

Posted by fattmoney > 2017-06-21 18:40 | Report Abuse

http://nexttrade.blogspot.my/2017/06/refinery-stocks-coming-under-selling.html

Can anyone comment why the blogger above is saying that the crack spread is dropping?

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-06-21 18:44 | Report Abuse

https://paultan.org/2017/06/21/caltex-petrol-station-closures-chevron-responds/

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 18:46 | Report Abuse

Alex is a jokers!

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 19:29 | Report Abuse

crack spread is difference between price of crude oil and petroleum products selling price. If crude oil price drop, retail selling price will also be revised, and now is on weekly petrol pump price mechanism.

Not sure is whether due to following erase the profits.
1) When crude oil price is in a downtrend - crude oil purchased at higher cost will be processed thru refinery process to separate petrol and other components for other petroleum products and sent to storage tanker and then sent to retail petrol station tanker. Retail petrol station think normally will reimburse in weekly basis for inventory. This whole process may take about couple of weeks for inventory to be consumed by retailers. So inventory holding cost will be higher whereby retail price will be reflected to market rate. (So this need to be hedged against the crude oil price fluctuation).

2) When crude oil price is in a downtrend, fixed cost for refinery process, transportation, storage, tools & maintenance, depreciation is not affected by oil price fluctuation and when petroleum selling price is downward adjusted due to crude oil price heading down, margin think will be affected. So Company might have thin profit if crude oil price continue to move downward.

3) Besides, inventory holding losses when crude oil price is downward at the end of the quarter compared with the beginning of holding period.

Just nonsense talk only since did not go into details.

Just nonsense talk.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 19:37 | Report Abuse

Anyway, just be cautious when trading, if not wrong, next month end will be call warrant expiry date, and plus negative market sentiment after June (after last push up by fund managers for that portfolio), it might not look good for Petronm or the price will be stagnant at certain price range. You may re-visit when right time is come.

Just nonsense sharing.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 19:41 | Report Abuse

yup many non-sense will acquire confidence when price comes down

people can even relate crude price with refinery margin...all you need is a graph taken from somewhere with the word gas or oil in it and with a trend going down..and link it with refinery margin...

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-21 19:42 | Report Abuse

newmaster,

for your information, i manage to get some below market average price
what is more exciting than getting a stock that meet all your selection criterias at pasar malam price, now waiting to get more at lelong price

posted by Newmaster > Jun 10, 2017 08:13 PM | Report Abuse

@ aseng, so just tell us if you add at this level given the prerequisite conditions?

Posted by Kenji Peeh Kean Beng > 2017-06-21 19:45 | Report Abuse

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.gulfoilandgas.com/webpro1/main/mainnews.asp%3Fid%3D59914&ved=0ahUKEwiR0N7d7c7UAhXCqI8KHfRrBLYQFggxMAY&usg=AFQjCNFogSZDAsnsTXhvjcDF4Xbjf8mvSw&sig2=Qg9T5J3rGJYw1OZcrHun8w

Posted by Jay > 2017-06-21 19:47 | Report Abuse

I suspect the selldown is because people are speculating that petron might earn lesser compared to last quarter as the oil price is on a downtrend, but definitely overreacting. it's all about expectations, if you are expecting 40c eps every quarter, you are bound to get disappointed, if not next quarter then the quarter after next. but if you look at the longer term, each year RM1-1.20 eps, excellent cashflow and balance sheet, then you won't panic when price come down.

this drop is nothing compared to not long ago when petron-cb dropped from more than 50c to 25c, hehe

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 19:56 | Report Abuse

2Q17 vs 1Q17 vs 4Q16

Tapis: 8.50/8.47/6.78

Minas:11.95/11.95/11.03

Gulf: 12.91/11.96/10.61

Northwest: 11.59/9.50/9.42

wondering why the refinery margins is not triple x 3 of above values when crude was at 120USD/brl..

anyone can answer?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-21 20:01 | Report Abuse

suregain,

if you have money to buy more 8.++ is not expensive
if you got no money to buy more 7.++ is too expensive

can't understand or think I am talking rubbish ?
then see what is the highest price KYY paid for JAKS

understand ?

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 20:03 | Report Abuse

Just be careful when playing warrant, don't let this burn your hand. Holding mother in long term should be alright.

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-21 20:07 | Report Abuse

Kyy jump klcc, u beter folow him fast fast

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-21 20:08 | Report Abuse

Ron 95 drop 3.5% to 1.91. u all don't wait till the next results and see gap down lah.

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-06-21 20:18 | Report Abuse

arab control american 100% refinary now. so what next? woll arab listen opec?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-21 20:49 | Report Abuse

suregain,

my sifu told me ,
to win big , you must dare to lose big first
my sifu also told me,
if you think petronm is good, then buy more when it is selling at pasar malam price but do not forget that there are still many people out there want to sell you at the lelong price after that.

I asked my sifu,
what should i do if the price still drop like no tomorrow?

my sifu said,
come to i3 to see what other people say

I asked my sifu ,
who's advice should I follow ?

my sifu said ,
any sifu here, but NOT suregain sifu, he always asks people to jump from KLCC





Posted by suregain > Jun 21, 2017 08:07 PM | Report Abuse

Kyy jump klcc, u beter folow him fast fast

Posted by mamatede > 2017-06-21 20:56 | Report Abuse

why this counter drop so jia lat? global crude price drop not good meh?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-21 20:57 | Report Abuse

Too many jokers thinking they are experte

Posted by neotang > 2017-06-21 20:58 | Report Abuse

the unexpected oil price crash will impact petronm earning momentum, how bad it is, not sure.

Posted by mamatede > 2017-06-21 21:03 | Report Abuse

If drop below RM7 will consider for entrance

Posted by neotang > 2017-06-21 21:05 | Report Abuse

http://nexttrade.blogspot.my/2017/06/refinery-stocks-coming-under-selling.html

"Now, crack spread is again dropping. The smart money is again selling these stocks since they have rallied so sharply in May. If you have good paper profit sitting in these stocks, you should consider SELLING INTO STRENGTH."

Posted by neotang > 2017-06-21 21:06 | Report Abuse

where to find this crack spread data?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-21 21:12 | Report Abuse

2Q earning should not be badly affected as this lower crude price was only recent given another few more days to end the 2Q

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 21:21 | Report Abuse

https://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS/CME_RM1-RBOB-Gasoline-Crack-Spread-Futures-Continuous-Contract-1-RM1-Front-Month

the above graph presented by Alex has no whatsoever correlation with actual LOCAL refinery margins...

Check out the graph average figures during 2014, 2015 and 2016 with reported crack spread CCS margin of HRC in their Annual reports.

even more evident is the qtr ending 31ec16 (see its average from 1st oct till end dec 16, it was only 12, but PetronM reported EPS obove 40 cents).

the graph has only data till 5th Mar17 and the average is 17 plus for Jan & Feb 17...meaning 50% higher than qtr ending Dec15.

It has no basis / correlations to predict Jun17 refinery margins in SEA ..especially Malaysia.

Posted by Alex > 2017-06-21 21:27 | Report Abuse

sry my fault, pls forgiv me

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 21:30 | Report Abuse

Probability, this one you post is gasoline one, do you have oil crack spread ?

Besides, what is the currency base ? USD ?

Crack spread is only difference between cost of crude oil and sales price of petroleum products ? does this include or exclude other costs, like fixed costs ? Company EPS is this crack spread less out other costs like COGS and non-production costs ?

Think this need to confirm before coming into conclusion. Wait for your answer.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 21:36 | Report Abuse

Probability, understand different might have different base for crack spread depending on retail and cost price but the trend line I think should be same that is either in upward or downward trend.

Besides, whether EPS = crack spread or EPS = crack spread - costs for production and non production ? I think crack spread need to minus out certain cost to arrive EPS, if wrong please correct me. But EPS all depend on company cost efficiency and technique used and any other considerations.

Wait for your answer since I did not study details for this.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 21:48 | Report Abuse

windcloud..i am talking about some stupid graph presented by Neotang from mextrade blog.

major factor refinery margin is just supply and demand...the greatest factor now contributing to it is 'the refinery capacity in vicinity'

no matter how much crude you have...you need refinery to process it to produce the refined products...if their capacity nearby is full...you need to source it from a distant location incurring transportation costs, insurance etc.. so the neighbouring refinery will have an advantage by increasing their margins (due to buyer willing to pay a higher price to convince seller to sell it to them).

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 21:50 | Report Abuse

Who can supply Pertamina from Malaysia?


SINGAPORE: Asian gasoline profit margins have recently surged to overtake diesel and jet fuel margins as upcoming refinery maintenance in Indonesia and Vietnam will cut supply in the region.

Gasoline's premium to benchmark Dubai crude oil averaged $11.22 a barrel in May, outpacing the May average premiums for jet fuel at $10.50 and gasoil at $10.08, according to Reuters calculations using data on Thomson Reuters Eikon.

The strength in gasoline should continue at least until the middle of the third quarter, said oil analyst Nevyn Nah of consultancy Energy Aspects.

This is due to the refinery maintenance in Indonesia and Vietnam, Asia's two largest gasoline importers, as well as the prolonged shutdown of a gasoline unit in Ruwais refinery in United Arab Emirates (UAE) after a fire in January.

As a result of Ruwais shutdown, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) had to seek more than 1.5 million tonnes of gasoline for March to December delivery to plug the supply gap.

"Gasoline is the strongest product now in Asia in terms of crack and timespreads. After lacklustre Indonesian buying in second-quarter, they are back for June spot barrels," said oil analyst Nevyn Nah of consulting firm Energy Aspects.

Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina is seeking 280,000 barrels of 88-octane and 98-octane grade gasoline for June loading from Singapore or Malaysia.

This came shortly after it had concluded a term deal for up to 6.25 million barrels of 88-octane gasoline per month for July to December delivery.

Gasoline may rise and fall relative to its oil product peers but it should perform well overall for refiners for the next few years.

"We expect Asian demand (gasoline) growth to continue with higher grades of motorisation, in particular in key countries such as China and India, while refineries will struggle to cope with the demand growth," said Cuneyt Kazokoglu, Head of Oil Demand at consulting firm FGE.

"Until 2022, we expect total Asian gasoline consumption to rise by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) while refinery production will grow by about 700,000 bpd only."

"By 2025, Asia will be net short of 1 million bpd (of gasoline)," he added.

Posted by tapdance > 2017-06-21 21:56 | Report Abuse

To whittle down the surplus weighing on the domestic market, analysts expect China to export refined product, putting more pressure on a well supplied global markets.

"China will have to export product... onto Asian markets, which given demand conditions regionally does not appear particularly constructive," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity strategy at French bank BNP Paribas.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-demand-analysis-idUSKBN19C168?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=US%20Reuters%20News%20Now%202017-06-21&utm_term=US%20Reuters%20News%20Now

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 22:00 | Report Abuse

thats precisely the reason why there will be significant demand for refinery locally.

posted by probability > Jun 17, 2017 10:31 PM | Report Abuse X

http://www.hyshjt.com/English/ShowArticle.aspx?id=362

last paragraph:

Current once processing capacity of Shell Malaysia was 7.8 million tons/year, while Shandong Hengyuan was 5 million tons/year. Li Li, Director of ICIS told the journalist that the current capacity of Shandong Hengyuan would be reduced from 5 million tons to 3 million tons after getting the export and use licenses of crude oil. The M&A was an important measure to expand capacity.


HRC is going to operate like a monster....

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 22:02 | Report Abuse

Probability, I think you don't straight go into conclusion nexttrade blog showed wrong chart and said stupid graph. Nexttrade blog sometimes also is a good reference for me since long times ago.

Please looked at the chart from nexttrade blog and the chart you showed gasoline crackspread chart, almost the same in shape and price also is around there. So, don't simply said stupid chart and never look at the graph. If both of your chart same, then this mean your chart also stupid chart (I don't have any intention to scold you).

This is the open market, willing buyer and willing seller. Remember last time when at Taan forum, you mentioned Taan will reach 5.00 and above and palm oil price will move towards 3,500 - 4,000 and wont drop to 2,800. Now palm oil stand less than 2,500 and Taan price from 4.xx dropped to 3.5x. Sometimes commodity price do affect the Company share price and not sure market correction will come in following month or not. Anyway, money is on the hand of all of you, whether to buy or sell or average down or to sell and buy back later, you all should have a strategy on it. Anyway all the best to you Probability since I trust your capability. I am not a good trader, but I already sold and exited when price near RM8.00 and may buy back if got fund once fall below 7.00.

Posted by tapdance > 2017-06-21 22:05 | Report Abuse

Not saying it will affect local refinery margin; but would be one of the things to keep an eye on.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 22:07 | Report Abuse

windcloud...thats not my graph(i dont have any graph to show refinery margins)...i took from his blog..saying its a stupid graph meant to mislead people...

no issues...i am ok with anything you want to say...im no angry :)

Posted by windcloud > 2017-06-21 22:07 | Report Abuse

ok noted, anyway, as a friend, hope you the best and trade with cautious since market might not be stable in following months. Wish you earn fruitfully in coming 2nd half of 2017.

Got to go. Thanks for chatting with you.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 22:08 | Report Abuse

yes windcloud..i understand..

Posted by TakeProfits > 2017-06-21 22:21 | Report Abuse

Trade and tread carefully. Don't put all your monies in 1 basket. Cheers eeveryone. As many unknowns. Longer term depends on many factors. All.investing has risks. Tread carefully

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 22:35 | Report Abuse

care for us...or care for the price?
risky at crude price of 55USD or risky at 40USD?

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-21 22:49 | Report Abuse

the nexttrade blog got show comparison and correlation very high what. u dont fall in love w the stock lah. facts already so obvious still can say no correlation. denial dy.