Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 21:35 | Report Abuse

ok help me choose. i need to decide to commit to either HengYuan or PetronM. which one?

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 21:36 | Report Abuse

PetronM PE higher than Hengyuan, also PetronM's nearly net cash position than HRC's debt-ridden balance sheet.....

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 21:42 | Report Abuse

and CCS margin wise, PetronM lagging behind HSC's as per @probability's calculation.

I asked around, general sentiment is people like PetronM for car fuel, haha. They say more mileage oh.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-22 21:44 | Report Abuse

Both are fantastic lor...

if your foresee the refinery margin doing extremely well (HRC)
if your foresee refinery margin will be so so..the PetronM lor..
PetronM has retail business with guaranteed Earnings. You can see from Jay's posting how much retail is contributing...these are very secured steady growing business.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-22 21:46 | Report Abuse

If you ask me, I rather trust mahathir than China man

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 21:47 | Report Abuse

Sifu probability, thanks for the clarifications. You are too well versed in this highly specialized biz. Should help us run Petronm biz one day to boost its eps to its max......who knows !

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-22 21:49 | Report Abuse

For the first time, I feel next yr I can make a double return for this. I better plan now.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-22 21:51 | Report Abuse

on this management factor i would like to leave it out of the equation especially for refinery...

you can think about management if its a business which you will like to grow..where its dependent on the 'brain' of the management..
its a little applicable for retail..

but for refinery...its super straightforward.
Just decide what you think the local refinery margin would be...and based on the throughput (refinery capacity), its easy to see how much cash you will generate. There is nothing the management can bullshit here or influence.

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 22:33 | Report Abuse

ya...just to return some good to our former PM. Ok la i suppork mahathir la, after all i also drive proton, bangga =D

but i support morally, i will go for HSC because of greater PE rising multiplier (i foresee PE from 3 to 10, that's power gila) vs PetronM PE from 7 to 10.

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 22:33 | Report Abuse

thanks sifus for guiding ikan bilis, i huat liao must belanja you all icecream ok?

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 22:34 | Report Abuse

or maybe splitting fund....hmm....decision decision!

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 22:34 | Report Abuse

Free cash flow is derived from PBT. Coming quarter PBT will be dismal. So Ur fcf calculation is about to change very drastically. Just hold till August . U will be surprised by the cost curve

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 22:34 | Report Abuse

thanks sifu paper and sifu probability =)

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 22:41 | Report Abuse

U all see what's going on or not, petron share price is pricing in the future. Whereas all the supporters r giving u historical stuff. Dun be behind the curve lah.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 23:00 | Report Abuse

U guys dun have to take my word for it . Just look at what the jonker is doing to this stock will do. To actually think that a 7-9 ringgit stock can be pushed up and down by idiot retailers is so naive. This is a stock only jonker can manage to push ok.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 23:03 | Report Abuse

Am adding more to take advantage of bashed down level as well as seeing stronger balance sheet with excellent FCF. Just hold till end of the year.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-22 23:04 | Report Abuse

jonker, up, down, push, history, future, stuff, curve

is that artificial intelligence trying to communicate to us mere humans?

sad its beyond my comprehension...

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 23:09 | Report Abuse

I'm prepared to lose big ! Hard to come by company like this, therefore just not willing to let go.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-22 23:10 | Report Abuse

Alex, you are purely generalist. How you so sure pe all must go 10? Mkt give higher pe to pteronm and petdag not without reasons one. Petdag got big bro behind,won't die. Petronm got cash and little debts. Hengyuan, although generating good cashflows, but outflows also huge servicing debts, some more plan aggressive capes when book gearing so high.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-22 23:13 | Report Abuse

Still, jokers said look ahead! Oil price down petronm die. Hahaha. Come lah, sell it below 7. I am waiting some jokers to panic sell lah.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-22 23:43 | Report Abuse

Singapore gasoline margins to Dubai crude contracted by around 17 percent and diesel margins shrank by about 7 percent this year.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-22 23:46 | Report Abuse

Summarised from link in below:

http://m.timesofindia.com/business/international-business/asia-fuel-oil-bullish-fundamentals-lift-cracks-higher-singapore-stocks-climb/articleshow/59269394.cms

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-22 23:49 | Report Abuse

Fuel oil margin is doing well so far this year but not for gasoline and diesel

Posted by TakeProfits > 2017-06-23 00:15 | Report Abuse

Skyea, you are writing as a seasoned investor. Good ones from you. Yes pricing in future as seen in current prices. Skyea you are a realist. How can small timers move share prices!! If those Yonkers come and push up then good. If they push down for whatever reasons or selling, cos we don't know their intentions and why. Good on you skyea for being real.

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-06-23 08:00 | Report Abuse

crude start to rebound, is a BUY call today...

Posted by kyaputencom > 2017-06-23 08:19 | Report Abuse

technical rebound is expected after selling pressure soon.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-23 08:22 | Report Abuse

Below is the link shared by few i3 investors in before for sharing on upbeat for cracking margin.

Those upbeat is referred Fuel Oil like 180CSt, 380cst which used in Oven, furnace, broiler and bunker. It has nothing to do with gasoline and diesel. Gasoline and diesel is another product of crude oil which is totally different from fuel oil. As shared in above, Gasoline and diesel cracking margin have in fact shrank for around 17 percent and 7 percent respectively this year. What is major refined product of Petronm? Most of us know it.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asia-fuel-oil-cracks-jump-to-2-12-year-high-as-inventories-dive/

Posted by Lee Yih Yeong > 2017-06-23 08:26 | Report Abuse

OOMMGG....... really good sharing... thanks

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-23 08:28 | Report Abuse

Sorry l'm not against sifus here as l think further clarification is required to correct the entire picture of cracking margin for gasoline and diesel.

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-23 08:42 | Report Abuse

@paper

tq paper sifu for teaching. I will study more =)

Posted by invest turtle > 2017-06-23 09:26 | Report Abuse

Last chance to buy before price back to rm8

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-23 09:28 | Report Abuse

So fast ?? No yet, still accumulating

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-23 10:11 | Report Abuse

Good, then add more since prepared to lose big and switching from Carlsberg and AEONCr

Posted by Jay > 2017-06-23 10:15 | Report Abuse

@OOMMGG seems like you have some industry knowledge, do you mind sharing your source of shrinking of gasoline and diesel cracking margin? any news or links that we can refer to?

meanwhile, below is the Singapore gasoline crack spread, which seems to be going up instead of down. is this a rough guide we can rely on as reference?
http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=JUN_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=M7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM

Posted by wltan22 > 2017-06-23 10:48 | Report Abuse

@OOMMGG, thanks for your generous sharing, learning something new today, look forward of your sharing since me and maybe most of us not in this O&G downstream business, the more we can get is from annual and financial reports, some extra industrial knowledge and inputs are very much needed, thanks again

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-06-23 11:32 | Report Abuse

@ OOMMGG, thanks to pointing out my mistakes.

Cheers

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-23 11:39 | Report Abuse

逍遥子, not totally your fault. You are just trying to help all of us here. Keep up the good research. Cheers

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 11:42 | Report Abuse

when u see ron 95 dropping mad, already knowing about FIFO accounting, already attended petron AGM and was told that oil up, margins expand, you refuse to assess what this does to petron's margins specifically, and still stubbornly find some random article that contains headlines with "higher crack margins" in the internet to back your claim up(talking about another country other than malaysia, conveniently ignoring the ringgit) . finally was clearly told by Ramon himself, earnings is sustainable only if oil is stable. thats puzzling, got pay attention in the AGM or not? or just listening to what u like to hear only?

finally the share price indicating it is not as rosy as your "research" claims it to be also dont want to listen. the problem is not the share price being mispriced , problem is the shareholder himself.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-06-23 11:44 | Report Abuse

Ha ha.... experts come out again !!

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-23 11:50 | Report Abuse

Guess he must have lost some money. Otherwise, why wasting time here despite not in favor of the counter.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 11:53 | Report Abuse

these info is in the annual report, agm, and can see at your petrol station everyday. does it really take an expert to know this? really?

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 12:02 | Report Abuse

i already sold after i was dissapointed with the lack of information heard during the AGM, the same day itself, in fact the chairman had no respect for minority shareholders and walked out during the meeting. i bought at 4.24 in nov last year.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-23 12:13 | Report Abuse

The chairman went to toilet lah, can't tahan anymore. Bumped into him inside the loo. Hahahahahaha

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 12:15 | Report Abuse

is that why u are holding the stock?

Posted by 778899 > 2017-06-23 12:16 | Report Abuse

@skyea can you elaborate more on the AGM part, what information that you expecting but didn't get ?

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 12:30 | Report Abuse

diid u notice when hengyuan reported stellar results, the share price gap up and closed lower? after that petron itself reported 40eps, and everyone here was cheering and congratulating, but share price again did the same gap up and closed lower? if all the retailers here are cheering, then who's selling? the jonker lah obviously. thats already your first signal. then u saw gross margins decline in the report, rather drastically, and people are cheering over derivative gains, seriously...its not even core earnings. finally the only hope left is surprises on upgrade and bonus issue, which AGM the chairman said no plans at all on shareholding structure and refuse to entertain questions on upgrade. no institution fund mgrs were seen, only retailers. ron 95 and oil already dropping at the time. I REALLY DIDNT SEE A NEED TO HOLD anymore. undervalued? comeon, it was undervalued long time ago when it spiked to 7, at 7PE...it can drop to 3.50 after that....some of the shareholders here have already sat that same roller coaster. should have wisen up by now.

Posted by TrippleZ > 2017-06-23 12:32 | Report Abuse

TP RM14.50. Is it possible? We talk next week. Happy holidays guys

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 12:55 | Report Abuse

u all dont forget the mandatory turnaround is next year also, 2018. oil climb also u wont benefit immediately. oil stable also u have to wait 3 months for bad earnings and another 3 months to confirm recovery. u all slowly wait lah. at the end of the day, breakeven, congratulations. all this issues no need to discount into the price ah...by then cashflow how? without information on financing the upgrade, whats the point of calculating cashflow using past data. no doubt petron is growing customers, but saying its mispriced ur research is right is crazy.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 13:15 | Report Abuse

So far have u seen me calculating cash flow and margins etc in this forum? Keep it simple. Investing is simple. Doing all this margin calculation on something as volatile as oil and currency (need I mention hedging?), despite a 5 sen buffer granted by the government. Is that very smart? FA weakness is inaccuracy in estimation u shd have learned that in a basic investing course. Bare in mind 5 sen is a buffer. Not a profit guarantee. A spike can screw that buffer. U r wrongly treating it as fixed profit each quarter. So u r approaching this very wrongly. Earnings visibility is not as clear as u think it is. This is already a big hint.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-23 13:25 | Report Abuse

did u have a point because as far as investing goes, anybody who says he can predict oil and currency with certainty is in buffett's words, playing a fool's game. which is what u are trying to do. fact is oil is not stable now, so the earnings will not be stable. is that so hard to accept that u must predict? u need to handle the truth