Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 22:54 | Report Abuse

your eyesight cacat kah? March till September 2015 the figures hitting 25-30...what was PetronM earnings then? 60 cents/qtr??

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-21 23:26 | Report Abuse

then u slowly hold lah. rmb to hold woh .

Posted by probability > 2017-06-21 23:30 | Report Abuse

i hold or sell..the price move up or down...does it matter?

i am concerned on the underlying mechanism which determines the price movement...if you can elaborate on that..i am interested to listen, discuss and brainstorm...if not i see everything else is just a waste of forum space.

Posted by Warga Smka > 2017-06-21 23:41 | Report Abuse

High risk this counter

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-06-22 01:12 | Report Abuse

Walao, brent crude slump !!!

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 01:31 | Report Abuse

coming quarter sure cannot beat 40 eps already.

and the next quarter after that lagi lower cuz now oil is finding a lower base.

so u need 2 wait 2 more quarterly result gap downs.

and then finally it might stabilize. whether go up or not depend if oil climbs. that one also need 3-6 months more. u all get ready hold 1 year to breakeven again lah.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2017-06-22 03:46 | Report Abuse

Good advise Skyea! Market is controlled by sentiments, big institutions and many players. Cannot think as a simpleton. Many many factors to consider. We do not know what's round the short term corner. Longer term who knows...

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-22 05:07 | Report Abuse

No eye c

Posted by invest turtle > 2017-06-22 07:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by leechen88 > 2017-06-22 08:45 | Report Abuse

Sell lah sell lah .....I will buy more

Posted by kkteng70 > 2017-06-22 09:02 | Report Abuse

perhaps everyone forgot how Petronm making money . what about the other segment ? gas station revenue ( trading ). so is not far if you compare to shell ! is no apple to apple .

Posted by pitbull > 2017-06-22 09:17 | Report Abuse

Don't against the trend...

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 09:18 | Report Abuse

Anyone managed to get the email address of Petronm's CFO during AGM ? Perhaps can share it here as need to check with her the degree of impact against such drop of crude oil price

Posted by popo92 > 2017-06-22 09:20 | Report Abuse

drop also good, let others take profit.

Posted by Investor_King > 2017-06-22 09:23 | Report Abuse

stuck at rm8 ZZZZZZZ

Posted by Jay > 2017-06-22 09:27 | Report Abuse

haha some jokers spreading rumours that crack spread is falling, in fact it's expanding based on the data my friend just sent me. anyone with a bloomberg machine can corroborate it

I can excuse someone who does not know which crack spread to use since there are so many in the market (that's why I show a few usually as reference) but like what probability rightly point out, the chart the joker use shows the spread highest in 1Q16 and much lower in 4Q16 when petron and hengyuan clearly shows the opposite, that shows the blogger is either lazy or has a sinister motive

it's true that when crude oil drop, the time lag could be a drag in its profit (assuming refining margin stays the same), that is a fair point. but to mislead with a clearly wrong crack spread chart is inexcusable

Posted by Jay > 2017-06-22 09:40 | Report Abuse

as I have pointed out many time, 40c eps a quarter is a bonus, not a staple. do you really expect to buy a company earning RM1.60 eps a year at RM8?

assuming a benchmark PE of 10 times (actually with petron strong cashflow, I think it deserves higher), current market is pricing in an eps of around 70c, which means 2Q-4Q average 10c per quarter, up to you if you think it's fair.

as the sentiment turns more bearish, petron is not your stock if you need to make quick money by next week or next month.
will crude oil stay low or go down further? maybe, but don't forget Aramco listing is coming up soon and the guy who promotes Aramco listing just became crown prince of Saudi Arabia. it's essential for crude price to be higher to get a good IPO valuation

as the price goes lower, the potential reward to risk just gets higher. those who have a stronger risk appetite and stomach can consider collecting batch by batch. who knows there may be more people who are willing to throw at lower price, haha

Posted by charles_cty > 2017-06-22 09:48 | Report Abuse

the price enter to oversold condition...and panic sell...good earning company shouldn't drop so much in few days...market is over react to the crude oil price....

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-22 09:51 | Report Abuse

bought 7.11

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-22 09:51 | Report Abuse

oversold la..

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-06-22 10:13 | Report Abuse

In fact Asia region refinery margin had been climbing despite the oil price thumble.

I just look at facts & figures !

http://m.timesofindia.com/business/international-business/asia-pacific-crude-august-malaysian-vietnamese-premiums-continue-rise/articleshow/59252494.cms

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 10:19 | Report Abuse

@逍遥子,Jay & probability, thank you all for the monitoring and update.

Posted by Pol Boon Tat > 2017-06-22 10:21 | Report Abuse

@逍遥子,thank for your information.

Posted by lloydlim > 2017-06-22 10:22 | Report Abuse

Time to accumulate!

Posted by kkteng70 > 2017-06-22 10:23 | Report Abuse

if u sell above 8, good decision but if you sell at this price 715 bit low. expert has been saying that cost of shale oil price is around 18 usd. Keep in mind that is cost. Shale oil company do have huge debt during doing r&D. they need margin profit to pay debt. if you believe in Alex Lu write up (nexttrade) cruel oil drop follow by petronm share drop

Posted by fattmoney > 2017-06-22 10:23 | Report Abuse

Thank you Probability, Jay and 逍遥子 for the clarification on the crack spreads!

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-22 10:41 | Report Abuse

where r all the sifus? all licking wounds ka??

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 10:49 | Report Abuse

Those that still holding u all wait August gap down. Inventory loss kaokao. The cost curve has already caught up. Even u think priced in, jonker w press down ur price ,follow by 3 black candle. U champion u don't sell. 9 mths later u breakeven. Other ppl 9 mths later make 50% profit. U champion..

Posted by sheldon > 2017-06-22 10:49 | Report Abuse

I bought at 7.19. I sure hope that your optimism is on a solid basis.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-22 10:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by neotang > 2017-06-22 10:55 | Report Abuse

oil can drop again and again if opec give up, they are losing the battle now. technology keep improving, the US oil is here to stay.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 10:57 | Report Abuse

U all don't forget oil down impact on earnings is only the beginning. Ringgit later go to 4.50 due to election uncertainty, oil plunge, 1 mdb,( u choose ur poison), r u ready for another leg down in earnings?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 10:59 | Report Abuse

But don't undervalue OPEC's influence as US oil represents only a fraction of world output. More US producers are getting squeezed too in return if price continues to go lower and lower until they become bankrupt

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 11:06 | Report Abuse

7 support didn't even stand a chance. From the way it caved

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-22 11:09 | Report Abuse

luckily contra sold...

Posted by Embrace Belief > 2017-06-22 11:14 | Report Abuse

Talk east, talk west, talk cock

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 11:18 | Report Abuse

别用自己的面子而跟自己的钱作对。很傻。

Posted by invest turtle > 2017-06-22 11:22 | Report Abuse

Bought some at 7.05

Posted by Jay > 2017-06-22 11:29 | Report Abuse

@cpng how about share your expert view on global strategy, world oil market and to what extent it will affect petron earnings in the next 12 months? while you are at it, maybe also share by what measure petron is overvalued now? that would help a lot of people

Posted by Jay > 2017-06-22 11:33 | Report Abuse

for a good company, if you can sell at high and buy back at low, that's the most ideal investing strategy. over the years, however I realise the returns I miss is much higher than trying to time the market this way. but that's just me, there are a lot of young genius nowadays, maybe they can time it correctly that's up to them

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 11:45 | Report Abuse

Rights issue then u gg. In the AGM Ramon said equity financing is possible. And they initially plan to privatize back in 2012 w MGO. Right issue w just give them more control of the company like they initially wanted, just apply a waiver for share float if necessary. By then EPS also dilute. Placement of 30% to San Miguel also dilute. Ur 25 eps not steady lah. Mgo at rm 5 then u know. Market won't even let it go above 5 by then

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-22 11:47 | Report Abuse

So much uncertainty u all no need to discount one ah.

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 11:48 | Report Abuse

painful to see petronm dropped. TA indicates support at 6.5....for now it's a free fall =(

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-22 11:56 | Report Abuse

can refer pg 12 in latest quarterly report. PetronM states that as the oil price rallied, so does the margin improve.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-22 11:57 | Report Abuse

cpng, since your comments are quite making sense, would appreciate you share some deep thought view with us here for which the share is considered overpriced based on FCF and earnings, would you ??

Still awaiting for your expert's comments. Thanks in advance.

Posted by popo92 > 2017-06-22 12:21 | Report Abuse

Cpng, prices of stock isn't much a issue for me anyway. I emphasis more on earning, can you elaborate how you derive petronm' earning will crash given that crude oil as commodity price is dropping?

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-22 12:32 | Report Abuse

ah seng suda pk... paperplne oso go hiding

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-22 13:07 | Report Abuse

Let it drop pls

Posted by George888 > 2017-06-22 13:18 | Report Abuse

Relax, crude oil will hit $50 one day, just hold and collect dividends. The company is still expanding with additional service stations, high margin products, higher commercial sales.

Posted by cpng > 2017-06-22 13:35 | Report Abuse

油盟减产这样大利好消息，支撑油价过去一年半来的反弹，特别是美国油每次下跌到USD45，就马上反弹上去，但是我们看到过去48小时，美国油连破$44&$43，油盟减产大利多都不能涨，不用火箭科技计算机，问问阿贵就知道，油价短期来看完蛋了，连跌落$40也是指日可待的。

这就是我们讲的大环境，要跟大环境对抗？Swim against the current?