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Last Price

4.48

Today's Change

+0.16 (3.70%)

Day's Change

4.33 - 4.52

Trading Volume

307,000


10 people like this.

19,326 comment(s). Last comment by allaboutvalue 2 weeks ago

stocknanmy

105 posts

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-08 16:51 | Report Abuse

August 8, 2017
MEDIA RELEASE
FOR PUBLICATION & BROADCAST


PETRON POSTS P8.2 BILLION NET INCOME FOR FIRST HALF OF 2017

Petron Corporation, the Philippines’ leading oil refining and marketing company, ended the
first half of 2017 strong, hitting a consolidated net income of P8.2 billion, up 56% from the P5.3
billion posted over the same period last year, despite crude oil inventory losses and a 45-day
scheduled maintenance shutdown of its refinery as part of its 10-year inspection program.
The solid performance was driven by the company’s deliberate focus on more profitable
segments and improved refinery production yields, while sustaining sales volumes coming
from a record-breaking year in 2016.
“With our upgraded refining capabilities, we derived more value and produced more profitable
products. This is strongly complemented by our extensive expansion efforts in both our
logistics and retail businesses,” Petron President and CEO Ramon S. Ang said.
During the period, total sales volumes for both Malaysia and the Philippines reached 52.9
million barrels, slightly higher than the previous record of 52.6 million from 2016.
Petrochemical sales also surged 78% year-on-year.
Consolidated sales revenues increased by 28% to P207 billion in the first six months of the year
from P161.9 billion over the same period in 2016.
Operating income stood at P14.6 billion, a 27% improvement from the previous year’s P11.5
billion.
The company remains confident about its prospects for the year underpinned by the country’s
strong economic performance.
(continues)
“With the country’s economy growing at a rapid pace, we are expanding our facilities not just
for the needs of today but also to ensure a reliable and continuous supply of quality fuels for
tomorrow. Our expansion projects mean more employment opportunities and economic
activity, which help in nation-building,” Mr. Ang continued.
Currently, Petron has a combined retail network of almost 2,900 service stations, more than a
fifth of which are in Malaysia. Since 2012, the Company has rebranded and built an extensive
retail network of nearly 600 stations in Malaysia. Petron has dozens of service stations in
various stages of development in both countries.
Recently, Petron’s Petron Blaze 100 Euro 6 was recognized as the best fuel in the Philippines by
leading global experts. Produced and formulated locally at Petron’s Bataan refinery, Blaze 100
guarantees better engine protection, better mileage, and better power. It is the first and only
Euro 6 fuel in the country that conforms to the world’s most advanced and environmental
standards.

stocknanmy

105 posts

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-08 16:52 | Report Abuse

Cepat sapu oh, nanti miss BiG boat.

Kena naik sampan je la kalau miss lagi......

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 16:54 | Report Abuse

damn, no breakdown this time! lets see if can proportion back

investor77

805 posts

Posted by investor77 > 2017-08-08 16:54 | Report Abuse

why price down despite good result?

stocknanmy

105 posts

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-08 16:54 | Report Abuse

Esok you tengok ada naik kua tak !

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 16:55 | Report Abuse

overall got more than 20% growth. wonder if same in Malaysia operation?
if 20% improve, EPS around 0.48 for Q2?

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 16:56 | Report Abuse

0.40+0.48+0.48+0.40=1.76 full yr?

RM17.60 xpe 10???

stocknanmy

105 posts

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-08 16:56 | Report Abuse

Meraka sudah pandai, tak ade leakage ini kali.

Tak pa, janji ada profit besar..........

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 17:06 | Report Abuse

yalor............sudah panlai, knowing ppl can front running.

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 17:06 | Report Abuse

report said sales volume improve etc....should be very bullish eh

Newmaster

485 posts

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-08 17:07 | Report Abuse

Profit can be very good as Malaysian operations always contributing significant bulk of the consolidated figures

Posted by Joblessrich > 2017-08-08 17:08 | Report Abuse

1/2 year income is P8.2 Billion
last qtr income is P5.6 Billion
Therefore, this qtr income is P2.6 Billion !!
Is my calculation correct ?

Trouble ?

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-08 17:16 | Report Abuse

Petron Corp went through 45 days refinery plant shut down during 2nd Qtr, hence Petron Corp operating income will be affected quite substantially for 2Q 2017.

The positive figures highlighted is the sales volume which worked out to be 26.7 millions barrels as compared to 26.2 millions barrels last Qtr, up about 500K barrels ; malaysia operation is about 30% of the total operation hence about 150K barrels increased.

The report also mentioned about stock loss which Malaysia operation might suffer too, hence conservatively I think EPS of 32/33 cents will be a safer bet.

Just personall opinion only.

Newmaster

485 posts

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-08 17:19 | Report Abuse

Bro 逍遥子, thank you again for this invaluable input......happy making money cheers !!

fattmoney

62 posts

Posted by fattmoney > 2017-08-08 17:25 | Report Abuse

逍遥子 can I check where do you get the info to confirm that the 45-day shut down is coming from Petron Corp (Philippines) side? Thanks in advance ya!

Newmaster

485 posts

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-08 17:27 | Report Abuse

Looks like this qtr income of P2.6 Billion mainly from Petronm since almost half the entire 2q of Petron Corp's plant is shut, so should be extremely good result from M'sia.

Any comments ?

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-08 17:35 | Report Abuse

It stated on the press released statement of Petrol Corp

http://edge.pse.com.ph/companyDisclosures/form.do?cmpy_id=136

Posted by Joblessrich > 2017-08-08 17:36 | Report Abuse

45 days shutdown, where did they get the supplies for The Philipines stations ? Does that means, They will do the refinery in Port Dickson and transport the petrol to The Philipines ?
So Port Dickson plant has to be at max capacity.
Does that make Petronm profit fly to the sky ?

Newmaster

485 posts

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-08 17:37 | Report Abuse

Yes, of course. Very smart Jobless but Rich

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 17:38 | Report Abuse

probability is calculating now I guess? HEHE

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 17:38 | Report Abuse

Malaysia only got 80Kbpd not meh? ....hmmmm

Posted by stockranger > 2017-08-08 17:43 | Report Abuse

Petronm party is getting hotter now.........superbullish as 45 days shutdown will help lift M'sia's profit a lot more than anyone expected.

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-08 17:59 | Report Abuse

Personally i do not think they will ship the refined product from Malaysia to Philippine due to costing. I guess for that 45 days they are just buy & sell from other Philippine's refinery.

Anyway I m just guessing only.

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:01 | Report Abuse

hehe. if 45days maintenance, then the growth must be overall from Malaysia right? so higher EPS?

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:02 | Report Abuse

EPS 1.76 X PE-7=12.32

SO the range is 12.00-17.60 loh.

George888

425 posts

Posted by George888 > 2017-08-08 18:05 | Report Abuse

The report didn't state which refinery plant underwent a maintenance shutdown. Is it just the Philippines? Or Malaysia as well?

Posted by stockranger > 2017-08-08 18:06 | Report Abuse

pang72
Petron :-
1/2 year income is P8.2 Billion
last qtr income is P5.6 Billion
Therefore, this qtr income is P2.6 Billion !! for 45days (45days in schedule countenance)
so, if 90days operation will be P2.6*2 = P5.2 ----very close to quarter 1 results..
So, assume no change on Malaysia business , q2 = P1.5b too.
08/08/2017 17:39

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-08 18:09 | Report Abuse

No lah...Msia Petron refinery where got shutdown in 2017 ?

The shutdown of Petron refinery for 1 mth, will be in 2018 for schedule maintenance mah....!!

stocknanmy

105 posts

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-08 18:09 | Report Abuse

Macam macam cakap pun ade sekarang.

Tak apa, esok kita akan kuat tarik naik, murah lagi dan ada untung cukup besar !

KYYMachai

140 posts

Posted by KYYMachai > 2017-08-08 18:12 | Report Abuse

Hehehe, already collected quite a lot of mother and CD especially lor.

Tomorrow all traders from CIMB will jump in gao gao, just wait and see la

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:18 | Report Abuse

from previous quarter, Malaysia is 26% of overall profit. If same apply, YTD 14.6bil Pesso x0.26x84.93/1000=320mil

320mil/270mil shares=1.18 EPS.

Q1=0.402
Q2=?? 1.185-0.402=0.78?? so high?? cant be true i guess.....petrochemical sales mainly from Philippines?

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:27 | Report Abuse

ah above is operating income, not net income. wrong figures......recalculated below..

P8.2bil, x0.26x84/1000=179mil
179mil/270mil=0.66 EPS
so low at? 0.258?
8.2bil according report is even after inventory losses and 45-day schedules

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:29 | Report Abuse

someone need to calculate back xxbpd of Philippines for 45 days losses....also inventory loss estimation. kinda complicated.

probability

14,490 posts

Posted by probability > 2017-08-08 18:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Aug 8, 2017 06:25 PM | Report Abuse X

Pang, actually their 45 days effect is even more as there will be shut down and start up time of at least 15 days + the 'uncovered overhead costs of these 60 days' that will eat through the Gross profit generated during the beneficial operation days of just 30 days.

Q2 of PetronM would be definitely way way higher than what you had put here.

Posted by pang72 > Aug 8, 2017 05:39 PM | Report Abuse

Petron :-
1/2 year income is P8.2 Billion
last qtr income is P5.6 Billion
Therefore, this qtr income is P2.6 Billion !! for 45days (45days in schedule countenance)
so, if 90days operation will be P2.6*2 = P5.2 ----very close to quarter 1 results..
So, assume no change on Malaysia business , q2 = P1.5b too.

probability

14,490 posts

Posted by probability > 2017-08-08 18:30 | Report Abuse

its like Petron Corp refinery were operating only one third of their quarter (1/3)....as such the earnings reported is simply amazing.

Posted by Newbie7229 > 2017-08-08 18:31 | Report Abuse

2.6 billion peso net profit for Q2.
The ratio of net profit for Q1 (26.8 % MAS, 72.2% PHI)
for malaysia segment, 85% petronm, 15% sister company.

Assumption:
Profit contribution of PHI halved due to 45 days shutdown (73.2/2=36.6)

Hence, 2.6 bil x(26.8/(36.6+26.8)) x 0.85 x 11.78 =0.0793 B = RM 79.3 M

Net profit = 79.3 M. I think this the maximum expected profit. Should be lower than that. So, q2 max eps 29.4 sen

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-08 18:36 | Report Abuse

If Eps Rm 0.294 for Q2 2017 compare Rm 0.228 for Q2 2016 up 28% Petron share can fly or not ? or profit increase fully discounted from the increase in share price recently leh ??

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:36 | Report Abuse

ah. got the 85%, 15% breakdown, forgot about this part too...

paperplane

21,644 posts

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-08 18:36 | Report Abuse

2.6 billion peso net profit for Q2.
The ratio of net profit for Q1 (26.8 % MAS, 72.2% PHI)
for malaysia segment, 85% petronm, 15% sister company.

Assumption:
Profit contribution of PHI halved due to 45 days shutdown (73.2/2=36.6)

Hence, 2.6 bil x(26.8/(36.6+26.8)) x 0.85 x 11.78 =0.0793 B = RM 79.3 M

Net profit = 79.3 M. I think this the maximum expected profit. Should be lower than that. So, q2 max eps 29.4 sen

too simplied way.

Posted by Joblessrich > 2017-08-08 18:39 | Report Abuse

Q1'17 income = P4.1B
less 45 days (50%) = P2.05B
Assume (consevatively) other overhead, fix cost, etc takes up 50% of the income
Philipines income for Q2 estimate is P1.025B

Therefore I think, Petronm income will be at least = P2.6B -P1.025B =P1.575 Billion (at least)

meistsk3134

2,368 posts

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-08-08 18:45 | Report Abuse

crude oil start drop.... share will drop

Newmaster

485 posts

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-08 18:51 | Report Abuse

Need Sumato88 to come and estimate too.

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-08 18:54 | Report Abuse

The valuation of Petron share price tricky loh...!!

Lets take the conservative EPS Rm 0.294 Petron of Q2 which is lower than Q1 this yr.

Eps Rm 0.294 x 4 to annualised = Rm 1.176 per share.

Refinery contribute 70% and Retail mkt contribute 30%.

Refinery share of eps rm 1.176 x 70% = 0.823
Retail mkt share of eps rm 1.176 x 30% = 0.353

Thus valuation of Petron
Refinery PE 6x = 6 x 0.823 = Rm 4.94
Retail Mkt pe 16x = 16 x 0.353 = rm 5.65

Raider estimate Petron conservative share price Rm 10.59

Newmaster

485 posts

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-08-08 18:57 | Report Abuse

Joblessrich, I like your computation a lot.

Why ? It's so conservative and yet still good result. So 2morrow sure fly up sky high.

Q1'17 income = P4.1B
less 45 days (50%) = P2.05B
Assume (consevatively) other overhead, fix cost, etc takes up 50% of the income
Philipines income for Q2 estimate is P1.025B

Therefore I think, Petronm income will be at least = P2.6B -P1.025B =P1.575 Billion (at least)

InsiderR

70 posts

Posted by InsiderR > 2017-08-08 19:05 | Report Abuse

Only refinery in Ph shut down 45days or 0.5 qtr. But all petrol stations still in operation.
How come earning drop half?
All Petron refineries and petrol stations in Ph n PD closed shop for 45days? Lol
Could somebody split the earnings for each segments then only make conclusion?
Also, Ang's statement earlier this yr said planned TA is 30 to 35days only, 45days means delay?!

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-08 19:06 | Report Abuse

Not done by Newmaster dd

Posted by Gaybird Lim > 2017-08-08 19:08 | Report Abuse

haha. sorry. should ask newbie7229,

(26.8/(36.6+26.8)) <--- is this is the new ratio of q2 earning for PetronM?

Posted by Newbie7229 > 2017-08-08 19:17 | Report Abuse

Yup

Posted by Newbie7229 > 2017-08-08 19:17 | Report Abuse

Estimated one

J Trader

112 posts

Posted by J Trader > 2017-08-08 19:28 | Report Abuse

My understand very simple, as long as Petron Malaysia able to post MYR 2B revenue, bottom line will not lesser than MYR 80mil..

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