Posted by Gaybird Lim > 2017-08-08 19:32 | Report Abuse

ok. thanks. :)

Posted by George888 > 2017-08-08 19:46 | Report Abuse

Interesting to figure out Malaysia side of the profits.

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-08 19:57 | Report Abuse

Personally I think we can use sales revenue to estimate Petronm profit. 2Q total sales revenue is $101 billions peso, and from the historical data showed that Petronm sales revenue portion is 27.15%, and Petronm last Qtr net profit margin was 4.2% (of course this 2Q might be slightly lower due to stock losses)

This one might give some basic idea of the rough estimation.

Posted by InsiderR > 2017-08-08 20:06 | Report Abuse

"45days shutdown + 15days start up time"?!
Additional 15days for startup? Ridiculous.
45days=shutdown + start up?
If just a routine Turnaround for regulatory endorsement + minor work for equipment replacements + minor modifications etc., how significant cost do u expected?

Posted by swiftwind > 2017-08-08 21:17 | Report Abuse

Estimate via Sales Volume
Q1 2017 (Malaysia) 8,300,000 bbl
Q1 2017 (Overall) 26,200,000 bbl
Q2 2017 (est. Malaysia) 8,458,397 bbl (ratio accordingly)
Q2 2017 (Overall) 26,700,000 bbl
================================================================
Q1 Results
Est. Crack spread Q1 2017 5.01 USD/bbl
1 USD to MYR 4.4
Gross Estimated profit Q1 2017 182965200 MYR
Operating Expenses etc 74428200 MYR
Net Profit Q1 2017 108537000 MYR
Basics EPS (sen) 40.20

Est. Q2 Results
Est. Crack spread Q2 2017 5.26 USD/bbl (assuming 5% improve)
1 USD to MYR 4.30
Gross Estimated Profit Q2 191330208 MYR
Operating Expenses 74428200 MYR (assume same)
Estimated Stock Loss 21822664 MYR (18-days inventory)
Net Profit Q2 2017 95079344 MYR
Basic EPS (sen) 35.21

Posted by swiftwind > 2017-08-08 21:25 | Report Abuse

Feel free to comment. Do let me know if the assumptions are unreasonable so I can try and calculate again.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-08 21:30 | Report Abuse

Estimate via Sales Volume
Q1 2017 (Malaysia) 8,300,000 bbl
Q1 2017 (Overall) 26,200,000 bbl
Q2 2017 (est. Malaysia) 8,458,397 bbl (ratio accordingly)
Q2 2017 (Overall) 26,700,000 bbl
================================================================
Q1 Results
Est. Crack spread Q1 2017 5.01 USD/bbl
1 USD to MYR 4.4
Gross Estimated profit Q1 2017 182965200 MYR
Operating Expenses etc 74428200 MYR
Net Profit Q1 2017 108537000 MYR
Basics EPS (sen) 40.20

Est. Q2 Results
Est. Crack spread Q2 2017 5.26 USD/bbl (assuming 5% improve)
1 USD to MYR 4.30
Gross Estimated Profit Q2 191330208 MYR
Operating Expenses 74428200 MYR (assume same)
Estimated Stock Loss 21822664 MYR (18-days inventory)
Net Profit Q2 2017 95079344 MYR
Basic EPS (sen) 35.21

RAIDER COMMENT;

The only missing element here is did not factor in any impairment loss on inventory loh...!!

Raider think impairment loss on inventory is roughly 3% to 5% on inventory holding loh...!!

Posted by ravz > 2017-08-08 21:31 | Report Abuse

But y D stock price drop so low today

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-08 21:34 | Report Abuse

Some Forex gain is expected as RM was strengthened 2%+ against USD

Posted by Newbie7229 > 2017-08-08 21:36 | Report Abuse

If not mistaken, Q2/2017 net profit will exceed Q2/2017 but not Q1/2017. Depends whether market will satisfy or not, since many people expect eps 40 sen @@

Posted by XDL123 > 2017-08-08 21:45 | Report Abuse

I managed to buy CD .31-.33 today.....warned you all yesterday....GG kuat baru beli

Posted by swiftwind > 2017-08-08 21:49 | Report Abuse

Dear Raider,

Thank you for your comments. I did include another line for stock loss in Q2 2017 to account for ~3 USD drop in price and based on 18-days inventory. Is this not the impairment loss due to inventory?

Dear Khye Lock Tneoh,

I did not include forex appreciation due to difficulty estimating gains from forex. I will have a look and see if I can update to include later.

The calculation by sales volume serve as a conservative estimate only.

Posted by jebat > 2017-08-08 21:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing....

Posted by suregain > 2017-08-08 22:47 | Report Abuse

Hmmm.. market dun,like,within expectation result.. no more,surprise,from petronn. Be cautious

Posted by Victor Tan > 2017-08-08 23:04 | Report Abuse

gap up

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-08-08 23:15 | Report Abuse

swiftwind: (updated) Est. Q2 Results
Est. Crack spread Q2 2017 5.26 USD/bbl (assuming 5% improve)
1 USD to MYR 4.30
Gross Estimated Profit Q2 191330208 MYR
Operating Expenses 74428200 MYR (assume same)
Estimated Stock Loss 21822664 MYR (18-days inventory)
Net Profit Q2 2017 95079344 MYR
Basic EPS (sen) 35.21

This may not correct as its throughput is NOT run at full at 88kbpd. Also, u didnot consider its income from retails.

Posted by LogicTrading > 2017-08-08 23:48 | Report Abuse

Cd surely kena sapu first thing as result is good

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-09 05:24 | Report Abuse

Too many variables

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-09 05:43 | Report Abuse

In Q1,do we have one off , exceptional profit figures ?

Posted by ckyap17 > 2017-08-09 06:24 | Report Abuse

Q1 Sales Revenue Contribution
PetronCorp : 73%
Petronm : 27%

Q2 Sales Revenue Contribution
PetronCorp : 73%/2 = 36.5%(Reduced due to 45 days maintenance)
Petronm : 27% + (73%/2) = 63.5%

From layman explanation, we can expect the sales contribution ratio to be changed because petroncorp contributed less revenue however malaysia's revenue is not affected by the maintenance.

i think the estimated 5% improvement of crack spread and also there will improvement in retail sales will easily offset the inventory loss.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-09 06:43 | Report Abuse

Not necessary I think. Philippines got other products that they sell....It might be inventory etc. Even down for maintenance still can contribute to profit

Posted by ckyap17 > 2017-08-09 06:51 | Report Abuse

the sales generated from other products or oil refinery were used to offset maintenance cost?
therefore the sales contribution ratio by petron corp is reduced?

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-09 09:09 | Report Abuse

Mother so few sellers, good sign !

Should punt into CD, opportunities

Posted by hkck > 2017-08-09 09:11 | Report Abuse

why keep dropping...

Posted by Dragonpick > 2017-08-09 09:13 | Report Abuse

Pushed down intentionally................take note

Posted by KYYMachai > 2017-08-09 09:17 | Report Abuse

Smart RHB to kill those CD players who bought high..............But good time to collect more of both when not many selling mother.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-09 09:19 | Report Abuse

small volume sell down

Posted by dnn78 > 2017-08-09 09:19 | Report Abuse

Time to sapu lorrrrr, mother, cc, cd all sapu

Posted by KYYMachai > 2017-08-09 09:20 | Report Abuse

Yes yes..............but when down all run away far far..............hehehe

Posted by stocknanmy > 2017-08-09 09:26 | Report Abuse

Tak ramai yg jual. Agak jualan dah dekat kering.

Bila bila masa akan kita kuat tolakkan.

Peluang dah ada la sekarang.

Posted by Activeinvestor > 2017-08-09 09:29 | Report Abuse

Whacking of mother and CD is starting, sapu sapu

Posted by jebat > 2017-08-09 09:30 | Report Abuse

hengyuan up....hope petronm will follow......:D

Posted by dnn78 > 2017-08-09 09:35 | Report Abuse

later will follow,,,steadily surely..:P
hahahahha sapuuu sapu

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-09 09:36 | Report Abuse

RHB will do the necessary to recover the loss incurred in CB !!

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-09 09:39 | Report Abuse

Bro Khye Lock Tneoh, how RHB going to recover the loss incurred on CB ? Pls share some insights. Thanks in advance

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-09 09:41 | Report Abuse

Ha ha.... they push the price up last to sell CD at a inflated price, now pushing down the mother to collect back at a way lower price.

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-09 09:43 | Report Abuse

I mean last week

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-09 09:45 | Report Abuse

Can we sya that CD is low to buy loh ?

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-09 09:46 | Report Abuse

That I got no idea ! I only hold mother share and intend keep for long term. Call warrant I hardly play

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-09 09:47 | Report Abuse

Ok, thanks Bro. You are still the best who always share good info !

Posted by Khye Lock Tneoh > 2017-08-09 09:50 | Report Abuse

Just sharing info only, nothing much.

Cheers

Posted by sigmax > 2017-08-09 09:50 | Report Abuse

oh come on petron.

Posted by Good_stock > 2017-08-09 09:51 | Report Abuse

Guys, dun forget the TP above RM10 to RM12 was earlier set by RHB too.

Posted by suregain > 2017-08-09 10:13 | Report Abuse

poor result exxpected

Posted by LogicTrading > 2017-08-09 10:14 | Report Abuse

How is the result , good ??

Mother shares volume mainly Buy Sell from same RHB. Actual volume very thin now

Posted by ipodkaki > 2017-08-09 10:22 | Report Abuse

As a person works in a refinery as an engineer, I need to tell you guys that this is usual turnaround for a refinery in a 45 days period involving in certain units (For example, 3 days for cracking unit, 2 days for hydrogen unit, 5 days for diesel, 8 days for lubricant oil unit, 2 days for gasoil unit, 3 days for aromatic unit) and it is mainly for equipment like tanks, piping, pumps, dist column upgrade/changes/project MOC and etc...It is NOT entire plant shutdown.
Meanwhile the capacity of refinery will be affected but you do not expect it cut it half. I will say 20% is normal and max is 30% reduction of the capacity.
You all are being too optimistic here by assuming that implies to the huge reduction of Phillipines refinery income. Last quarter Phillipines: 73% vs Malaysia : 27% for income contribution.
Taking consideration of the 20% reduction of the capacity in 45 days, I will assume the income contribution will be about Philly:63% vs Msia: 37% of the 2.6 billion pesso profit.
Now 2.6 billion / 11.75 (Average exchange rate of ringgit vs peso) = 221.27 Mil ringgit.
PetronM income = RM 221.27 million * 37% = RM 81.7 Mil.
For malaysia segment, 85% petronm, 15% sister company., RM 88.5 * 85% = RM 69.6 Mil
Which is around RM 0.26 EPS. And to me this is still an optimistic scenario already.
Market is expecting something between RM 0.3-0.35 and this will be an under perform quarter to it. I am expecting the share price to drop down to RM 8+ in short term

Posted by LogicTrading > 2017-08-09 10:28 | Report Abuse

ipodkaki, you must be a real joker waiting to buy cheap

Posted by shidayea > 2017-08-09 10:32 | Report Abuse

I'm queuing BUY now..

Posted by mamatede > 2017-08-09 10:36 | Report Abuse

big selling..

Posted by LogicTrading > 2017-08-09 10:38 | Report Abuse

Not really big sell like what you thoght. RHB pushed down purposely