Yeah quite so. Every time someone tells me a business is cyclical, i have to ask. Find me a business that is not cyclical.
Even coca cola sales also drop in a recession. What is cyclical and what is not?
The question is not if the company is cyclical anot. But the economic characteristics of the company.
Having said that some companies do tie alot tighter with economic outlook, and coupled with high debts. Becomes EXTREMELY volatile. In bear, go down to hell. In bull, go to heaven.
Caltex CTX Australia...CTX similar like Petron M traded high A$37 and low of A$24 last 52 weeks. And its PE is 8.75. Check.it out at Bloomberg. Caltex Australia also have its own petrol stations. 3 years ago it was 17, I thought it was too high. Well in hindsight I should have bought...Well...it's gone but another chance cos it's trading at around 25A$ now. So if you were an investor you would have made. Everyday you guys look at few cents up and down...having your heart rate go up and down.....then berak in jamban...hahaha..LOL. Let me explain some years back I bought 20k a stock average A$2...waited some years and recently nearly sold all at above A$7 over. Mind you this stock went as high as a$8.50.... Oay mamatede...You I think a nice lady, I am sure petron and hengyuan long term you will make money. Depends on how much you buy...If you buy 100shares..nothing I can say. AT THESE PRICES BUY AND HANG ON. Depends on your risk appetite ...Sure you decide with all the US/China thing, trade wars and US rates going up and fears of lesser growth.
Hey trulyinvest ...what do you expect ...bear immediately become bull arh..Haha. This is OPPORTUNITY time for me....Time will be out friend. Future geopolitical concerns etc...
I am hearing that big time gamblers have to sell.assets to clear off their stock.lossess. Really pity how people can get sucked in ammo badly. For me, it's good time to slowly accumulate
Good luck Jaya if 6 comes. Well some people bought a bit higher and that's ok for the long term horizon. No one knows the lows buy at these prices and slightly higher it's just to have a position in it. Good luck to you getting at 6 and below. It will benefit is all of it goes lower.
I would agree with Sheldon with C. We seen a drastic drop in crude oil price the past month. It would hit profits for sure. D might be a bit too optimistic. Hopefully next quater it would achieve D.
sheldon Based on the feedback on profits so far then we could expect a healthy dividends of > 25 cent per share? 03/01/2019 22:53
FY2017 has been quite a good year for petronm but management have conservatively declared only 25cents div that time, so my guess div for FY2018 minimum div would be 25cents, should there be any increase of div i guess it would also be very minimal perhaps a 0.01 or 0.02cents increased only... anyway we can know the answer already in next month report...
Remain calm, not sure lah bro on the profit margin. Apparently refinery margin is the worst for the past 7 years. Googling about refinery margin and found this article.
Fundamentals in the Asian gasoline market are likely to remain weak in 2019 despite being supported by the Middle East, as South Asia searches for fresh regional demand while nursing a hangover from 2018's supply glut, sources said.
China has awarded the first round of gasoline export quotas for 2019 at 5.19 million mt, down 20.8% year on year. Despite the lower quota in the first round, supply is set to rise as new refineries Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical come online in Q1 and Q2 2019, respectively. Quotas are expected to rise in future rounds as part of the Chinese government's continued efforts to ease a bloated domestic market. Both refineries will add a total of 800,000 b/d to Chinese output.
Outside China, new projects such as Malaysia's 300,000 b/d RAPID refinery coming online in H1 2019 will add 98,000 b/d of gasoline to the market. This, coupled with steady run rates from refineries in North Asia, adds to mounting concerns of supply.
Uncertainty prevails on whether South Korea's tax reduction on auto fuels will provide any noteworthy support to gasoline markets. Although lower pump prices may help raise demand, many believe that any significant rebound in gasoline demand will only be seen at the start of the driving season in mid-2019.
There is little new regional demand that could help absorb the Asian surplus.
Indonesia's purchasing power for refined oil products has been severely circumscribed by a depreciating rupiah, market sources said. The government's efforts to reduce the country's current account deficit and lower its import bills will also put a ceiling on any fresh demand from Southeast Asia's largest importer of gasoline.
On a bright note, demand from Africa, Pakistan and India is likely to remain strong while supply is expected to tighten as Middle Eastern refineries go on turnaround in H1 2019. Middle Eastern producers are also collectively expected to cut the usage of lighter grade crude oil due to low refining margins, which will further tighten supply of gasoline within the Persian Gulf.
Despite gasoline margins under pressure, in Malaysia there's some lagging in the adjustment of prices. The govt does consult the petrol station operators to ensure that they earn a decent margin before deciding on the retail prices.
I feel given that the 3 quarters cumulative profit already amounts to 250m+ with reserves 1.5b+ and 25 sen dividend is only 59m+, they could and should easily pay 30 sen.
Vincent, refinery margin in asia weakest since 7 years. Oversupply and demand slowdown from china mainly. Not sure if malaysia refinery same thing or not.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
RainT
8,448 posts
Posted by RainT > 2018-12-19 00:01 | Report Abuse
was many sifus is taking chance to buy in PETRONM