Posted by Undilah_DAP > 2019-01-11 15:50 | Report Abuse

Ron95 tomorrow down?

Posted by chickenputih > 2019-01-11 16:08 | Report Abuse

little bit movement ..

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-12 23:03 | Report Abuse

This has close to zero impact on the long term economics of the business.

There is however, one very key risk. Which applies to the petrol retail industry of malaysia, including petdag etc. And this is my main worry. If not for the very cheap valuation, i would not be as keen.

Try studying the economics of the petroleum retailing business globally, and then go and read up on the recent disposal of the petroleum retail arm by Husky Energy in the US.

Then you'll know what i mean.

=====
johnbrooks Vincent, refinery margin in asia weakest since 7 years. Oversupply and demand slowdown from china mainly. Not sure if malaysia refinery same thing or not.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL4N1YA2PV
10/01/2019 11:13

Posted by johnbrooks > 2019-01-13 15:11 | Report Abuse

Choivo, why do you say the refinery margin is not important? Shouldn't it be the most important thing for the company's profit? I mean the refinery margin is what determine the gross profit margin right?

The way u say it, u think that the profit won't be affected even if the refinery margins go down. I'm not saying the retail business is not important but the biggest weight to the company profit should still be the refinery profit.

Posted by chickenputih > 2019-01-14 10:50 | Report Abuse

memang cross cross cross ..

Posted by ohy2012 > 2019-01-14 10:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by WangLingxin > 2019-01-14 10:54 | Report Abuse

good to buy in on petron?

Posted by chickenputih > 2019-01-14 10:56 | Report Abuse

today not good .. index frop 7points and ppls rush to sell whatever they have .. :P :P

Posted by chickenputih > 2019-01-14 10:58 | Report Abuse

but in one hour chart , a doji there is interesting ..

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-14 11:19 | Report Abuse

Yes.

I can't answer your question properly, as i like this company at this price very much for myself and my investors.

Its not in my interest to potentially increase my purchase cost by explaining to others on a public forum. Its already up 5% this year, and it had just cost me an additional few thousand this year when i buy more.

However, i wrote something on the economics of refinery business.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/an-estimate-on-the-real-refinery-earnings-of-hengyuan/
https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/lessons-from-hengyuan-petronm-and-other-oil-gas-related-companies/

I believe the above two articles, as well as a brief study on husky energy and other petrol retailing or refinery companies around the world, will provide you an answer.

Email me once you've finished your research. We can talk further then.

=====
johnbrooks Choivo, why do you say the refinery margin is not important? Shouldn't it be the most important thing for the company's profit? I mean the refinery margin is what determine the gross profit margin right?

The way u say it, u think that the profit won't be affected even if the refinery margins go down. I'm not saying the retail business is not important but the biggest weight to the company profit should still be the refinery profit.
13/01/2019 15:11

Posted by sheldon > 2019-01-14 11:41 | Report Abuse

Come on Choivo & Johnbrooks & others - we're playing the "Guessing Game" - what do you speculate will be the profit for the last 2018 quarter?

A - Loss
B - 0 - 50m
C - 51m - 100m
D - > 100m

As stated earlier - Simonlee76 & i guess C; Remain Calm B & Chickenputih D - what's your guess?.

Posted by sheldon > 2019-01-14 11:54 | Report Abuse

Choivo - I went through your analysis of Hengyuan - pretty remarkable in your derivation of "real refinery earnings" - I think I'm a relative guru in finance but I humbly say that I've learnt something from you - TQVM

Posted by Jaya > 2019-01-15 12:43 | Report Abuse

Johnbrooks
Yeh gkent fly today brother
Very happy la

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-01-15 14:23 | Report Abuse

petronm seems not bad..

Posted by Jaya > 2019-01-15 14:54 | Report Abuse

Cheap bought in

Posted by sheldon > 2019-01-15 19:40 | Report Abuse

A main factor holding down our market (including Petron) is political uncertainties on especially succession - useless bums!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-01-15 19:45 | Report Abuse

Emotion have a weird way of complicating things, most people, including those who will be long term net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance.

These people resemble a car driver who rejoices after the price of petrol increases, simply because his tank contains a week's supply.

Bro. This is called chance. No political (among other kinds) uncertainty, where got chance to buy cheap.

======
Posted by sheldon > Jan 15, 2019 07:40 PM | Report Abuse

A main factor holding down our market (including Petron) is political uncertainties on especially succession - useless bums!

Posted by Jaya > 2019-01-16 04:19 | Report Abuse

Choivo
I invest now for CNY ang pow

Posted by Jaya > 2019-01-16 04:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by sheldon > 2019-01-16 11:21 | Report Abuse

As long as the share price is below RM7.50, I look forward to only dividends

Posted by stingray_ea > 2019-01-16 11:34 | Report Abuse

opp..

Posted by stingray_ea > 2019-01-16 16:17 | Report Abuse

wow

Posted by stingray_ea > 2019-01-16 22:35 | Report Abuse

can buy small unit by stages

Posted by Jaya > 2019-01-21 10:53 | Report Abuse

Buy and keep brothers

Posted by MCA_ > 2019-01-21 13:53 | Report Abuse

“They promised to set the price of petrol at RM1.50 per litre. Now, it’s more like RM1 for half a litre. The price has just gone up by six sen.
Read more at https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2019/01/21/fulfil-promises-pakatan-told/#AsI9GH2JrLFqrXr3.99

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-01-22 10:36 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/190935.jsp

Posted by LouiseS > 2019-01-26 12:55 | Report Abuse

The EPS increased significantly by 118% in last five years, the PE ratio at quite low level of 5, the ROE at 20% and dividend yield at 3.82, worth to investigate further.

https://louisesinvesting.blogspot.com/2019/01/preliminary-screening-of-counters-with_25.html

Posted by sheldon > 2019-01-28 11:43 | Report Abuse

I feel a minor erection

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-01-30 10:57 | Report Abuse

moving..

Posted by Foxxxxxx > 2019-01-30 14:16 | Report Abuse

As readers would know that ever since I posted my buy recommendation on Carimin, it has shot through the sky like an unstoppable rocket.
Many of my followers have asked me what is my target price.
Yesterday Carimin shot up 11.5 sen from 60 sen, 19 percent in 1day with 22.3 million shares changed hands. This huge volume shows that many well-informed institutional investors are buying so aggressively.
Many of my followers asked me what is my target price. Just based on its 1 quarter eps 5 sen X 4 q equal 20 sen.
Conservatively my target price is Rm 2, selling at PE 10.
I can imagine those smart investors can easily foresee that it can easily earn 20 sen per year. By the end of February when it's 2nd quarter profit is announced, investors can easily foresee its future and chase to buy up to 1.95 which is my immediate target price.
I am obliged to inform you that Carimin is my major investment and I do not need you to buy to support the price because there are many institutional buyers. That is why the daily volume exceed 20 million shares and the price continues to move higher and higher.

Posted by 東风 > 2019-02-01 10:32 | Report Abuse

Need money to spend for CNY

Posted by Parttimer > 2019-02-04 09:35 | Report Abuse

why drop again ?

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-02-05 16:10 | Report Abuse

for u to collect..

Posted by sheldon > 2019-02-11 15:48 | Report Abuse

There's a rumble in the jungle

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-02-12 10:36 | Report Abuse

rumble...

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2019-02-12 11:12 | Report Abuse

Ya gogogo petronm

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-12 11:38 | Report Abuse

.... Wanted to buy my last batch, but was still thinking, at 6.5. Aih . A little bit irritated.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2019-02-12 14:16 | Report Abuse

Nah, we all don't know...lar. If it goes to 7 next week, we wished we bought some at 7. Petron is good stock. Let it cross 10 first. Haha. Kikikki

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-12 14:34 | Report Abuse

I know what its worth. Haha

Posted by Parttimer > 2019-02-12 16:37 | Report Abuse

why up?

Posted by sheldon > 2019-02-12 20:09 | Report Abuse

Parttimer - results about to be released. I'm hoping & I think that there's a general consensus that there'll be no earnings surprises a dividend of about 25 sen

Posted by TakeProfits > 2019-02-12 22:00 | Report Abuse

Sure Jon, we all have placed values on this one. Let's hope all of us win by selling close to our values. Well main thing is we make decent out of this one. Haha. Someone is playing with our emotions, up they sell, down they buy. These raokors, taikors..haha

Posted by 430204813832245 > 2019-02-13 10:06 | Report Abuse

7.35 no problem

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-02-13 10:34 | Report Abuse

keeep..

Posted by sheldon > 2019-02-13 11:30 | Report Abuse

If the price hits 20, you might see me in the Forbes List - somewhere between Teh Hong Piau & Vincent Tan

Posted by RainT > 2019-02-13 12:41 | Report Abuse

can reach RM20? dont dream

with the unstable oil price dont think can reach RM10 also

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-02-13 15:05 | Report Abuse

Oil price does not really matter for PetronM. Its not the main money maker.

Posted by chshzhd > 2019-02-13 15:24 | Report Abuse

agree..

Posted by yesyesyes > 2019-02-13 15:57 | Report Abuse

sui sui liao .. get set , GO !!!

Posted by RainT > 2019-02-13 16:36 | Report Abuse

so what is the main money maker for PETRONM?

can share ? hehe