Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-25 06:56 | Report Abuse

Petronm NOSH 270 million.
Petron Corp controlling shareholder hold 198, 179,063 units (73.4%).
The minority shareholders hold 26.6 % (71,820,937 units)

Free float is small, hence just need a few good quarter results and some deep pocket investors to do the magic on its share price.

Q1: Petron Q2 EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan Q2 EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Q2: Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Q3: Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-08-25 07:40 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-08-25 09:52 | Report Abuse

petron results should be out today or tomo...

Posted by AzlanIshtiqal > 2022-08-25 09:56 | Report Abuse

Harga minyak masih akan meningkat kerana kesusutan inventori minyak US

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/oil-holds-gains-after-report-points-to-shrinking-us-stockpiles

Posted by param1 > 2022-08-25 10:27 | Report Abuse

MY PET IS BACK

Posted by Diamond7 > 2022-08-25 10:35 | Report Abuse

Petronm
30.09.21. NTA 7.05. EPS 12.2
31.12.21. NTA 7.29. EPS 22.4
31.03.22 NTA 7.68. EPS 39.4

Look at its excellent growth!!!
Well managed company with good dividend yield!!!

Coming quarterly report will be excellent!!!

5 STARS!!!

Currently undervalue!
Will go back to fundamentals!!!

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-25 11:19 | Report Abuse

Prefer steady move up, mop up selling pressure in each level, built up flooring support at each level ahead of Q result release

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-25 11:55 | Report Abuse

Upcoming hatching egg outcome --darkness snake or golden dragon, soon to known, nothing to hide

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 12:30 | Report Abuse

sslee, I totally get your point of calculating the EPS from the earning amount and NOSH but why this formula is needed to get a fraction from the non- control interest profit.

100/22.6 x revenue = expected revenue
TOTAL nOSH / minority share holder x revenue = exepected revenue

I just wanted to get the formula right.

Totally appreciate your kind explanation here.

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 12:36 | Report Abuse

Petron is fighting close at the supply around RM5.90, if big candle lies on that price we would see huge amount money flow into this stock already.

FIBO
R1: RM5.9
R2: RM6.3
R3: RM6.81

S1: RM5.54
S2:RM5.10

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-25 14:00 | Report Abuse

Posted by King_trader_shadow > Aug 25, 2022 12:30 PM | Report Abuse

sslee, I totally get your point of calculating the EPS from the earning amount and NOSH but why this formula is needed to get a fraction from the non- control interest profit.

Answer: Petronm is 73.4% subsidiary company of Petron Corp.
Hence Petronm account is consolidated into Petron Corp account.

From Petron Corp December 31, 2021 annual report
NVRC: PMRMB
Non-controlling Interests Percentage 14.45%: 26.60%
NVRC did not contribute much to Petron crop profit.

Q2 Net income after tax attributable to:
Equity holders of parent company Peso 3,513 million
Non controlling interest Peso 595 million

If the non-controlling interest is fully from Petron Malaysia then Petronm net profit after tax is Peso 595/0.266 million = Peso 2,237 million

Note: the non controlling interest of 26.60 % is refer to Petronm share not owned by Petron Corp.

Posted by hng33 > 2022-08-25 15:13 | Report Abuse

To retest break above RM 6.00 and stand above to set floor support at RM 6

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 15:16 | Report Abuse

I'm sorry Sslee, am trying to get the math and consolidate everything here.

Good info on the subsidiaries of the companie which are Petronm --> NVRC + PMRMB

Since you mention on the ratio of the NOSH here :
Petronm NOSH 270 million. ---> True
Petron Corp controlling shareholder hold 198, 179,063 units (73.4%). --> Okay as you said
The minority shareholders hold 26.6 % (71,820,937 units) --> Okay as you said

Does KLSE Petronm shares comprises of Petron Corp shares as well is it? . If that the case the floating shares in the KLSE market is only 71,820,937 unit which is 26.6% only. --> Please affirm this

For the math calculation: I still don’t get it why we need to divide even if it is the fraction of 26.6% then we should be times.

Scenario A : The net income for H1 is already 7.71billion peso from this we get non-controlling interest H1 is 945 then Q2 is 595million peso. I get it to this extend. This is already a net income for Petronm, so why do we still need to divide the 26.6% since the whole net profit already belong to PetronM.

Scenario B: Alright if A is untrue, we still need to do some accounts here because that net income isn’t solely full net profit. As you said it’s only 26.6% then we should be doing a multiplication than division.

26.6/100 * 595 = 158 million peso --> This is a fraction of partial pie from full pie of 100%
instead of
100./26.6 * 595 = 2237 million peso --> This is a fraction multiplication of full pie for 26.6% means we have 26.6 pies. Why do we need to do this when the net profit max is 595 million peso.

I just totally don’t get this though. I’m sorry for troubling you and accept my apology but would love to resonate this well.

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 15:17 | Report Abuse

Really appreciate if you could reply this Sslee bro!

Posted by TakeProfits > 2022-08-25 15:53 | Report Abuse

Dear sslee,
I kena sangkut this one. I want to get out at comfortable price...
What is a comfortable price according to your opinion. Of course Petron may do very well in future. Thank you very much. Prepared to wait a while more to get out.
Thank you sslee..

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-25 16:03 | Report Abuse

Petron crop is parent company of Petronm.
The parent company Petron Corp hold 73.4% of petronm.

Hence petron corp account included all the wholly owned companies in Philipine and subsidiary companies in Philipine and Malaysia.

Petron Corp in their 2021 annual report reported the two subsidiary companies is NVRC and PMRMB with Non-controlling Interests Percentage 14.45%: 26.60%

So in Q2 Petron Corp reported Net income after tax attributable to:
Equity holders of parent company Peso 3,513 million
Non controlling interest Peso 595 million

The Non controlling interest Peso 595 million refer to NPAT from 14.45% NVRC plus 26.60 % PetronM.

Hence if assume the 14.45 NBRC NPAT is zero then the
Peso 595 million is for 26.60% Petronm.
From this Petronm NPAT is Peso 595/ 0.266 = Peso 2,237 million.

Or in other word for minority interest of 26.6% petronm to earn Peso 550 million the total earning for Petronm is Peso 2,237 million.

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-25 16:20 | Report Abuse

I hold 50K petronm at cost of about RM5 and I intend to keep it for dividend.

Petrom business is in refinery + marketing (retail and commercial sales).

Unless the refining margin is poor and retail sales like what happen during covid time then no reason to sell at current price.

If want to sell most likely the fair price is 10-15 PE.

Posted by probability > 2022-08-25 17:09 | Report Abuse

Fantastic results of PetronM as predicted by Sslee... congrats!!

Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-08-25 17:09 | Report Abuse

Results out d, eps 68 cents !

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 17:09 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

Hence if assume the 14.45 NBRC NPAT is zero then the
Peso 595 million is for 26.60% Petronm.
From this Petronm NPAT is Peso 595/ 0.266 = Peso 2,237 million.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You already stated that Peso 595 million already refers to NPAT of (NVRC + PetrnonM) so why still need to do the calculation where it is already calculated bro.

Again you mentioned NBRC NPAT = 0 and Petronm = Peson 595 million and thats for the 26.60% . So why still need the division

Unless you are saying, the final NPAT is the every percent of the ownership is muliply with the NPAT value of non-controlling interest value

In other word :

Non-controlling interest = NPAT x Non-controlling interest percentage
595 = A x 0.266
A = Peso 2237 million

correct if i'm wrong

Posted by Investing_Bursa > 2022-08-25 17:09 | Report Abuse

Yes , sslee”s forecast so accurate

Posted by miracle_trader > 2022-08-25 17:10 | Report Abuse

pls pump your petrol at Petron stations, best performance fuel

Posted by probability > 2022-08-25 17:11 | Report Abuse

Kasi limit up tomorrow!

Posted by TakeProfits > 2022-08-25 17:14 | Report Abuse

Hey guys, what is fair value to sell Petron in the days to come . Or hold on to it ?? I really dunno ?

Posted by investor77 > 2022-08-25 17:15 | Report Abuse

SsLee, fantastic calculation !!! Eps of 68 cents. Means half year profit already over RM1 !! Since Refining and plus retail is more stable, present PE is less than 3x !! Rm6/2. Call Warrant CY is very undervalued at less than 10% as Expiry is end of 2022, still long time to go.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2022-08-25 17:15 | Report Abuse

Dear probability...if limit up does it mean i sell into the limit up!? Don't want to see too early. Just if I can make something decent...I want to cabut. So long I hold this one ,!!??

Posted by TakeProfits > 2022-08-25 17:17 | Report Abuse

Investor 77,=what is fair value of Petron /?

Posted by probability > 2022-08-25 17:18 | Report Abuse

@TakeProfits, i dont think it will limit up, but it may eventually go up higher than 30%....just keep it for sometime. Sell whenever you feel profit is good enough for you.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2022-08-25 17:19 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee, 10 to 15 PE is what share price.
Thank you very much sslee.
Sorry I am not good at PE's etc. I old man. Thanks

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 17:22 | Report Abuse

As Sslee mentioned, he would sell Petron at the PE of 10 to 15

PE 10 --> RM 6.8
PE 11--> RM 7.48
PE 12--> RM 8.16
PE 13 --> RM 8.84
PE14 --> RM 9.52
PE 15 --> RM 10. 2

So do you due diligence and sell accordingly.

cc : TakeProfits

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 17:26 | Report Abuse

Q1: Petron Q2 EPS 67sen vs. Petdagangan Q2 EPS 24sen -----> 2.8x higher profitability
Q2: Petron RM 5.6 vs. Petdagangan share price RM 22------>4x affordability
Q3: Petron forward PE 3x vs. Petdagangan forward PE 30x -----> 10x competitive

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-08-25 17:27 | Report Abuse

Good results with derivative loss about RM 370m+...

Posted by TakeProfits > 2022-08-25 17:28 | Report Abuse

Thanks very much toKing_trader_shadow...AND to sslee.
Please help old abeh make some not only teh Tarik but some nasi lemak with Ayam rendang ,!!
Thank you thank you to you all good experienced traders investors !!

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-08-25 17:29 | Report Abuse

Surprise me that this quarter they don't give dividends. I dont see anywhere they stated it.

Posted by miracle_trader > 2022-08-25 17:34 | Report Abuse

they only give dividend once a year

Posted by Eldon > 2022-08-25 17:38 | Report Abuse

Total EPS for latest 4 QR is 141 cents..if PE 10, this stock should trade at RM 14.10…not meh?

Posted by bsinvestor > 2022-08-25 17:53 | Report Abuse

Yes, wait until RM14.10 only sell. haha

Eldon

Total EPS for latest 4 QR is 141 cents..if PE 10, this stock should trade at RM 14.10…not meh?

8 minutes ago

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-25 17:54 | Report Abuse

i hold petron now and was there when petron was over rm10.. history has proven that refinery play wont go over pe10 since crack spread margin and oil is one of the highest volatility commodity.. the chart never lies and that explains why i would be correct
_______________________________________
As Sslee mentioned, he would sell Petron at the PE of 10 to 15

PE 10 --> RM 6.8
PE 11--> RM 7.48
PE 12--> RM 8.16
PE 13 --> RM 8.84
PE14 --> RM 9.52
PE 15 --> RM 10. 2

So do you due diligence and sell accordingly.

cc : TakeProfits

Posted by 888STOCK888 > 2022-08-25 17:59 | Report Abuse

Heng~

Ong~

Huatt ah~ =D





MAKE MONEY, MAKE LOVE, NOT WAR =D

Posted by Goldberg > 2022-08-25 18:02 | Report Abuse

Correct @ Eldonn - Trailing 4Qtrs EPS is 1.42 sen, therefore current PE based on RM5.80 is only 4.09 times.

A conservative PE of 8 is RM11.36.


Petron is undervalued to say the least.

Posted by kl_guy > 2022-08-25 18:06 | Report Abuse

hng33 , your calculation on eps ...cun cun 67-70sen. Really hit the target . TQ
Any expected tp for hengyuan after eps out ?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-25 18:21 | Report Abuse

Price for Brent was on steady rise from April to peak on June 8 at USD121. As brent was on uptrend for most part of the qtr, it resulted $268mil realised hedging loss and $167 mil temporary provision for hedging loss. I suspect quite some of the unrealised portion can be wtitten back to P&L in Q3 if crude feedstock does not scaled higher than the level in Q2.

Nevertheless, H1 2022 EPS of 107.40 sen is fantastic. The prospect of earning about $2 per share for FY2022 is bright.
If PE of 10x only, Petronm should fetch $20.
NTA is $8.16.

In contrast to Petronas Dagangan :
EPS 1H 2022 only 36 sen
NTA $5.67
Share price $22 !!

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-25 18:27 | Report Abuse

whoever comparing petdag eps with petron means he's a newbie, he was not there when the same equation brought in during refinery peak in 2016

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-25 18:28 | Report Abuse

stockraider, probability, sslee, knows better what im talking about

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-25 18:33 | Report Abuse

Sometime I wonder why Petronm Management is so afraid of sufferring inventories losses if cude oil market price sudden drop. They hedge the crude inventories and hence all the stock gain in crude inventories due to price increase is offset by commodity swap.

Q2 the derivatives realised loss is RM 207, 862,000 and unrealised loss RM 166,799,000.

Imagine if the managent in this crude oil price increasing trend and stop the commodity swap, Q2 will enjoy another RM 207, 862,000 inventories gain income.

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-25 18:42 | Report Abuse

its easier said than done, no one can predict what the oil and monetary derivatives would be even in the next couple of weeks, the only thing they can do is to balance the strategies as lowest risks possible

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-25 18:49 | Report Abuse

SuperPanda, newbie or not is not up to you to judge. We are just highlighting the huge disparities between the two . Understand?

Posted by Sslee > 2022-08-25 18:50 | Report Abuse

PureBULL ...

Crude OIL Refinery is a superb challenging biz.

i.e. the core REASON WHY,
Shell sold away HY n
Esso sold away Petron.,.

Refiner has 3 components:
Inventory profit + Refinery profit + Retailing profit.

Due to hedging mean any price increase the inventories gain will be offset by derivatives loss.
And any price decrease inventories loss will be off set by derivatives gain.

Hence Petronm retail sales profit depend on government fixed retail margin per litre X volume liter sold.

And refining profit depend of refining margin.(diesel, mogas, jet fuel and etc crack spread)..

What will be Q3 profit???

Posted by SuperPanda > 2022-08-25 18:56 | Report Abuse

why you cannot take the fact and learn from it? many has failed in this market due to ignorance and you might be one of them

Posted by Johnzhang > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

SuperPanda, newbie or not is not up to you to judge. We are just highlighting the huge disparities between the two . Understand?

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-25 19:06 | Report Abuse

Why can’t you be humble and respect other’s view and perspective? You have a lot to learn your manners. If you think it is ok to simply label other as you like you be prepared to accept how other label you ! I think you are an arrogant idi0t. Do you like it ?

Posted by SuperPanda > 40 minutes ago | Report Abuse

why you cannot take the fact and learn from it? many has failed in this market due to ignorance and you might be one of them