Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 11:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 11:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:13 | Report Abuse

They already started siphoning mah....from gain of Rm 1.1b....now it is a loss of more than Rm 1.1b mah!

Do u know....more than Rm 2.2b....has just disappear ah from 2020 to 2022 todate now leh ?

Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider if HRC wanted to con you they can just siphon out realised fair value gain on derivative financial instruments of RM 1,124,316,000 in year 2020

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 12:24 | Report Abuse

PetronM should be ok for next few handful years
unless Mike Cheat You Crazy or Dragon are appointed as CFO [Chief Fcuk Officer]

Shell stations are progressing rapidly to EV charging and other costume jewellery like RFID payments
if you are in a rush Shell RFID payment is very convenient

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:36 | Report Abuse

Correctloh....culmulative eps of Rm 6.64 from 2017 to 2022 v div Rm 0.16 loh!

Thus just earnings from 2017 to 2022 net off dividend is Rm 6.54 per share mah!
This exclude its existing nta of Rm 3.36 per share in 31-12-2016
If u include this 2016 figure.....it will be Rm 9.9 per share loh!

The current NTA of Hengyuan per share is only rm 5.25 per share mah!
Compare to Rm 9.90 per share above loh!

That means Rm 9.90 minus Rm 5.25 per share = Rm 4.65 per share in which a big part of this is due to suspect siphoning from derivative in the form of derivative losses loh!

Posted by CharlesT > 4 minutes ago | Report Abuse

HY's past year EPS

FY 2017 EPS RM3+
FY 2018 EPS Rm0.10+
FY 2019 EPS RM0.11+
FY 2020 EPS RM0.80+
FY 2021 EPS RM0.25+
FY 2022 (FH) EPS RM2.38+

VS

Div so far RM0.16

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:40 | Report Abuse

Petron reported a positive position after flowing thru its hedging losses to the P&L top line, this should be what hedging operation should be all about by smoothing out its profitability but not in hengyuan case with losses run into billions ?

But hengyuan do not loh! It keep the hedging loss as no impact to EPS loh!

If we standardised the treatment like Petron....Hengyuan will be reporting huge losses loh!

Rightfully Hedging losses should flow thru P&L mah!

Thus Hengyuan performance appear very bad compare to Petron loh!

The most danger question is the hedging instrument is completely unrelated to business hedging but it is a device instrument to siphon money from hengyuan loh!

The red flags can be seen by;

1. Many qtr of hedging losses loh!
2. Very suspicious long dated of the hedging instrument loh!
3. Extremely large hedging value has been contracted mah!
4. Extremely Huge hedging losses incurred todate loh!

If the above suspicion is proven true.....then hengyuan will eventually be worthless just like Serba loh!

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 12:42 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BobAxelrod > 2022-09-03 12:44 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by i3lurker > 2022-09-03 12:49 | Report Abuse

Raider dun mind coz Raider is at home wearing his expensive Armani "Birthday Suit"
when he goes out of his house, he robs a sarong from next door punya baby girl.
and goes out with just sarong and his between legs spaghetti stick just swinging free.

poor baby girl then instead of bouncing up and down happily just sleeps on floor crying.


Posted by BobAxelrod > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

It's slanderous to accuse a company of not reporting/hiding Losses.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 12:56 | Report Abuse

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to its usual average of 5.7 USD/brl (currently its about 4.5 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 5.7) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 90 million USD or gain of MYR 395,000,000

When its a loss, COHR only shows the 'greater opportunity lost' compared to smaller opportunity gained by hedging - by locking down the margin.

When its a gain, COHR only shows the 'benefit of opportunity locked' compared to if you had not locked the opportunity available earlier.

As such, we can see why the above is not reported in P&L statement. It really does not matter - as what Rabbit2 said it becomes zero on maturity.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 12:57 | Report Abuse

Yes if this is spend on capex....this will appear in the balance sheet & the nta per share will not disappear from Rm 9.90 per share to Rm 5.25 per share now mah!

It is likely disappear due to hedging losses loh!

Posted by Sslee > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Stockraider know how much Capex is needed to upgrade refinery to produce:
EURO 4M Petrol
EURO 5 DIESEL

Both Petron and HRC already done the Capex for upgrading and this year onward will have more cash for dividend.

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-03 13:01 | Report Abuse

The fear is still high risk of siphoning money thru derivative loh!

Posted by PureBULL ... > 2022-09-03 13:16 | Report Abuse

Crude OIL Refinery is a superb challenging biz


i.e. the core REASON WHY,
Shell sold away HY at fire sale of rm1.80 n
Esso sold away Petron.,.

Refiner has 3 components:
Inventory profit or LOSS + Refinery profit + Retailing profit.

msia exports OIL more than imports = that means prices that petrol stations r fully controlled by gov.,.
= meaning the retailers can't super enjoy by fixing its own prices at the pumps according to mkt forces, like in the U.S.

refining profit is pretty std.
can U create more profits by simply shouting high crack spread?

ONLY driver to HUGE profits due to its super huge QR revenue, is

1. increasing OIL price in a straight line = pow.chia CRAZZZY profit.
Refinery is best at this rare opportune time. but the good times r over.

2. decreasing OIL price in a straight line like now = decreasing ASP by the weeks
= only perfect hedging can protect the next QR PAT ending Sep 2022 from huge losses.,.

this is OIL prices by QR.
U can do a rough average prices per QR. then compare the ASP vs the QR:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oF35VyZG/

NB: every stock player can easily guess the ASP for this current QR vs the best QR i.e. last QR ended June 30th 2022, .,.

Posted by BLee > 2022-09-03 13:30 | Report Abuse

@PureBULL: ...Crude OIL Refinery is a superb challenging biz

i.e. the core REASON WHY,
Shell sold away HY at fire sale of rm1.80 n
Esso sold away Petron.,.

Refiner has 3 components:
Inventory profit Refinery profit Retailing profit

BLee: Hi @PureBULL, agreed on challenging, especially for both SRC (HRC) PD and EMB (Petron) PD of more than 60 years old refineries.
Both sold their refinery almost at the same time during the EURO5 requirements, which requires very extensive capital investment. Details in link: https://paultan.org/2016/02/02/shell-sells-malaysian-refining-unit-to-chinese-company/

1) A statement from the oil major said that it is MHIL’s intention for SRC to invest in the upgrades needed to meet the Euro 4M and Euro 5 requirements.
2) Shell has been exploring options for SRC including the sale of the Port Dickson refinery or converting it to a storage terminal since at least January 2015.
What will be the ROI with their very stringent specification of BS/European, American and Petronas PTS? I believed with the new owners, will installed own countries cheaper components.
On hedging, usually companies will hedge on the feedstock and not on the products?? I might be wrong on this very hotly debatable subject..
The 3 components for Petron and 2 for HRC (excluding retailers) is also very challenging as prices fluctuate with a very wide band…
The data for petrochemical consumption at link: Handbook Malaysia Energy Statistics
https://meih.st.gov.my/documents/10620/bcce78a2-5d54-49ae-b0dc-549dcacf93ae

Happy Trading and TradeAtYourOwnRisk

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:36 | Report Abuse

HY refinery margin update - 2/09/22 (DIESEL CRACK BLASTED ABOVE 50$/brl!)
...........

Diesel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet Fuel: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

From above:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Gasoline Mogas 95 at 35% yield, cracks USD (4.07 + 3.71) / bbl
4. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.35 x 7.77)+ (0.12 x 7.77)
= 23.18 + 2.70 + 2.72 + 0.93
= US $ 29.5 / brl
.................

Gross Profit at above derived present refining margin

= (10.7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $29.5/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.404 Billion MYR
...................

Posted by miracle_trader > 2022-09-03 13:48 | Report Abuse

is it better to buy Petron or Hengyuan

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 13:55 | Report Abuse

Now lets see what happens, when Gasoline crack drops to ZERO (currently its about 7.8 USD/brl)

Unrealized Cost of Hedging Reserve (COHR):
= (12.7 - 0) USD/brl x 18 million barrels
= 228 million USD or gain of MYR 1,000,005

GAIN of 1 BILLION on Cost of hedging reserve in Q2

But those who understand the above, they know it does not matter and that for gasoline their earnings is always going to be at 12.7 USD/brl.....

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-09-03 19:03 | Report Abuse

Since June 2022, a group of Agents coordinated malicious attacks on HY with ulterior motives. The Agents have been spamming days and nights with all sorts of disinformation, half truth stories and baseless assumptions , ultimately driving good stock to far lower that its fair value.

The Agents are capitalizing on the fragile market sentiment and serious lack of market liquidity to drive away whatever little buying interest and caused fearful and weaker retailers to dump their shares at huge discounts. The modus operandi of the agents is very obvious, trade manipulations is obvious.

Just beware that the Agents are not angels to safeguard small and retail investors’ interest. They are instead preying on unsuspecting retailers.

The Agents and the bosses behind are now collecting cheap shares again.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-03 23:28 | Report Abuse

No going back to reliance on Russian gas from here

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62779909

This is no coincidence. Russia's state-controlled gas giant announced an indefinite extension to a three-day maintenance halt to flows of gas through the continent's key energy artery, hours after leading western finance ministers vowed to escalate sanctions on Russian oil.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 09:05 | Report Abuse

Why General Raider says Sifu Sslee analysis on Hengyuan is dangerous flawed ?

1. Looking at the balance sheet HRC hedging losses as at 30-6-2022 amounted to rm Rm 1,329M of this sum of losses Rm 1189m or 90% are contributed by just 6 mths of operation result for the latest 30-6-2022 Financial result loh!

2. HRC derivative outstanding liabilities todate is Rm 1,781M whereas is derivative assets is Rm 261m, meaning net derivative negative exposure is Rm 1,520M.....meaning the counter party should be able received payment of Rm 1,520M from Hengyuan, it is just like your share margin losses loh!

3. Then why counterparty did not ask for margin call , since HRC has a huge negative equity of Rm 1520M leh ? Yes the counter party did ask for margin top up and hengyuan already paid, this can be seen from other receivable & prepayment payout increases by Rm 1,542M for the 6 mths mah!

In otherwords, Hengyuan 6 mths operating cashflow b4 working capital changes should be Rm 939m, after less Rm 1542M derivative top up amounting to negative cashflow of Rm 603M mah!

The route to potential financial collapse of Hengyuan, are written all there in the Derivative mah!

Do not get into this trap loh! Despite Hengyuan generated record positive operation cash flow of Rm 939m, its negative cashflow from derivative losses is rm 1,542m ( which already payout as other prepayment} thus HRC negative cashflow is Rm 603M.

Most importantly, Hengyuan borrowing & derivative liabilities had ballooned to Rm 3285M from just Rm 705m as at 31-12-2021 which a staggering increase of Rm 2580M, just within 6 mths and of this sum Rm 1542M is due to margin top up of derivative losses in the form of prepayment mah!

Lu tau boh ? The rot of Hengyuan has intensified alot loh!
Be very careful mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 09:08 | Report Abuse

All these Hengyuan info Raider presented is supported by fact & figures mah!

U can check it for yourself, since Raider had given direction where to Check Mah!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by miracle_trader > 2022-09-04 11:27 | Report Abuse

what about petron financial? good? or a lot of debt

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 11:57 | Report Abuse

The reasons why Raider need to uncovered the hidden truth about hengyuan bcos;

1. Innocent party like Ahfah son (Now gainfully employ as Technology System Analyst} has started to be interested of Hengyuan bcos of the huge EPS of Rm 2.22 reported in Q2 mah!
Just imagine a learned person like Ahfah son started to be greedy & interested n willing to accept in gambling on bad corporate governance stock like Hengyuan, what about the rest of laymen down the road leh ?
Alot of damage to their financial health will be coming to these people loh!

2. Also Raider trying hard to save Sifu SSLEE from damaging his prestigious reputation by acting as a fool in promoting Hengyuan loh....!
U see raider has soft spot for SSLEE, he is really kind gentleman & he is trying to do great services to the Society loh!
However Hengyuan which its magic reporting & highly complicated manipulative high finance is very complicated for Sifu SSLEE (general financial knowledge) to comprehend, in addition he has been mislead by people like Probability with his droves of fake duplicated IDS followers & supporters painting a fine picture on HRC, despite its core are roting loh!

It is a relieve for General Raider to hear Sifu SSLEE has a very small exposure on Hengyuan, thus Raider suggest he completely dispose it & switch quickly to Petron for better night sleep loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:01 | Report Abuse

U can do the same checking on Petron mah!

Petron is prudently financial manage loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 12:21 | Report Abuse

It matter alot if u invested in Petron, but not when u invested in Kon Hengyuan bcos they will siphon your money anyhow, whether crack spread are high or low loh!

In other words....do not buy kon companies loh!

Posted by UlarSawa > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

Crackspread up n down. Does it matter. Company earned but loss on hedging. Also loss mah. Haiyoh. Correct?


Sslee

Just go and look up Q2 is for quarter end 30/06/2022.
What is crack spread at that time?

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:18 | Report Abuse

Yes Hengyuan can hedge....but they should do it modestly like Petron, even after netting the hedging losses, net effect is still positive profit for Petron...this is what a hedging should be...smoothing the profit every qtr loh

But what Hengyuan is doing is big gambling & siphoning money loh!

Lu tau boh ?

Posted by Sslee > 6 minutes ago | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Only probability/sslee think HY hedging always perfect/profitable
Dunno whether they blind or what - never see HY soo many prev QR got losses

MM can you read english?
If you can that don't put your word into my mouth and read again and again :

What I say is to be objective and look into Q2 result.
Page 8
The profit/(loss) before taxation is arrived at after crediting)/charging
Fair value loss on derivative financial instruments:
Q2: RM 438,758,000. Cumulative RM 870,964,000
Page 5
Operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000

So in H1 the realised fair value loss on derivative is RM 870,964,000 and HRC still able to make an operating profit before changes in working capital RM 939,171,000.

Hence should you be very afraid of the unrealised losses RM1,079.600,000 marked to market (as on 31/06/22 when the crack spread was at the peak) outstanding derivatives till proclaims that HRC will have cash flow problems and going to bankrupt like Serba or AAX or CapitalA.

In other word if HRC do not do hedged by now H1 sale volume of about 21 million barrels should have gave them a super fat profit before tax of RM RM 870,964,000 + RM 982,535,000
Or a profit before tax of about USD 20 per barrel.

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:26 | Report Abuse

they hedge about 18 million barrels for a period of 24 months, about 20% of their sales throughput. 80% is free to capture market margin. The Cost of hedging reserve indicates what will be the implication to this hedged 18 million barrels if the phenomenally high margin of gasoline at 32 USD/brl at end of June 22' persist indefinitely. Its mark to market hedging loss/gain. We can expect the figure to reverse, when gasoline reverts to normal level by end of Sept 22'. Currently Gasoline crack spread is below hedged margin of 12.7 USD/brl at 7.8 USD/brl.

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:33 | Report Abuse

Raider asklah....how could embargo on Russia....help Hengyuan & Petron....to make more money leh ??

The impact is remote mah!

Also Msia is not exporting diesel & gasoline to Europe mah!

This probability very panlai spin mah!

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 13:37 | Report Abuse

u forgot how hurrcane harvey in US helped looks like

Posted by stockraider > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Raider asklah....how could embargo on Russia....help Hengyuan & Petron....to make more money leh ??

The impact is remote mah!

Also Msia is not exporting diesel & gasoline to Europe mah!

This probability very panlai spin mah!

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:38 | Report Abuse

I suspect the derivative trader is done between the owner macai & hengyuan mah!
Not thru an official exchange lah!

Do not be silly loh!

Posted by i3lurker > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

silly feller NYSE start 9:30 and do oil trading NYSE

Posted by i3lurker > 26 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Crude Oil can be traded via 3 main channels,
[still got others its called dll, not a bad word its => dan lain lain]

1) Oil Physicals & Futures
2) NYSE ETFs
3) OTC swaps

Posted by BLee > 2022-09-04 13:48 | Report Abuse

I have not taken any investment position in these two PD refineries, only have read some of their Invitation To Bid (ITB) dossier and site visiting. That is my only interest for sharing…no malaise intended and to follow some of the jargon to stay in tune.

Ideally, production and consumption of hydrocarbons shall match. IMHO, any over hedging and interruption of supply & demand will upset the equilibrium of prices/crack spread. Below are comparison of Gasoline vs Diesel vs Jet Fuel usage in year 2019 and 2020 (figure in million litres)

Gasoline (Carbon chain C5 to C10)
2019 - 18,400 and 2020 - 15,919

Diesel (Carbon chain C14 to C20)
2019 - 11,287 and 2020 - 10,059

Jet Fuel (Carbon chain C10 to C16)
2019 - 4,526 and 2020 - 2,549

Link: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078403/malaysia-fuel-use-by-type-of-fuel/

Gasoline Mogas 95
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

Diesel
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

Jet fuel
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

WTI Crude Oil
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-CL1%21/

Brent Oil
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CURRENCYCOM-OIL_BRENT/

Crack spread surfed details:
- 3 barrels of WTI crude oil produce 2 barrels of reformulated gasoline blend-stock for oxygen blending (RBOB) and 1 barrel of heating oil.
Crack spread = 2 * RBOB + 1 * HO - 3 * WTI

- Crack spread usually leads crude oil price by 1 month.

- Crack spread widens when demand for gas or heating oil increases. Because refineries need to buy more crude oil to increase production to meet demand. Crack spread narrows when gas or heating oil inventories are high.

- What is the 3 2 1 crack spread?
3:2:1 crack spreads — three crude oil futures contracts versus two gasoline futures contracts and one ULSD diesel futures contract. Further, professional traders may consider using diversified crack spreads as a directional trade as part of their overall portfolio.

- How do you calculate crack spread?
The 3:2:1 crack spread is calculated by subtracting the price of 3 barrels of oil from the price of 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of distillate. Additional ratios used for multiple-product crack spreads include 5:3:2 and 2:1:1

- The WTI-Brent spread is the difference between the prices of two types of crude oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the long side and Brent Crude (Brent) on the short side.

- What are derivative losses?
Basis: losses from adverse movement in the differential between two reference assets that are related but not perfectly fungible. Mishedging is a frequent source of losses in the derivatives market, particularly among active derivative intermediaries that deal in complex products.
Food for Thought..

Reference:
Handbook Malaysia Energy Statistics
https://meih.st.gov.my/documents/10620/bcce78a2-5d54-49ae-b0dc-549dcacf93ae

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/19/mm-oil-price/4376/crude-oil-cracking-spread-vs-wti

https://investingmalaysia.com/brent-crack-spread/

Happy trading and TradeAtYourOwnRisk

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 13:50 | Report Abuse

Blee,

My advice to u is stay very clear of Hengyuan loh!

Posted by BLee > 2022-09-04 14:00 | Report Abuse

@stockraider: Blee, My advice to u is stay very clear of Hengyuan loh!

BLee: Hi @stockraider, thanks for the advice. Things alway change with time. I believe in equilibrium, yesterday's price and tomorrow's price will make a lot of difference in investment strategy.
Happy Trading and TradeAtYourOwnRisk

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 14:05 | Report Abuse

@raider for you query above:
Among the two possibility below derived by sslee, only gasoline fits the hedged crack value as found in 2021 annual report page 130 where the max margin was around 12 USD/brl.

The lowest crack spread closing on 30 June 2022 is only for gasoline around 31USD/brl (others like Diesel & Jet Fuel is way higher).
Only using the lowest mark to market crack spread end of June 22, you can derived the low value hedged crack spread as per annual report of about 12 USD/brl.
Using gasoline the hedged barrels is 18 millions as derived by sslee.
As such, you need to be good in maths to understand how these are deduced.

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2022 8:59 AM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,
The outstanding Refining margin swap contract as on 30/06/2022
Notional amount: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM 1,751,332,000
Hence unrealized loss RM (1,751,332,000-261,065,000) = RM 1,490,267,000

On 30/06/2022:
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Diesel crack spread: USD 56.125
Average of the two USD (31.578+56.125)/2= USD43.85
USD to MYR: 4.397

V: Volume of outstanding refining margin swap contract (Barrels)
A: Average outstanding margin per barrel hedged (USD)

Equation:
from notional amount: V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
from unrealized loss: V x (43.85 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (43.85 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
9,951,538,250= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 9,951,538,250/565,873,133
A= 17.586
V=226,945,000/17.586
V=12,904,746

If you use only Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.58
Equation:
V x A=226,945,000 or V=226,945,000/A
V x (31.58 – A) = 1,490,267,000/4.397

226,945,000 x (31.58 – A) = 338,928,133 x A
7,166,923,100= (338,928,113 + 226,945,000) x A
A= 7,166,923,100/565,873,133
A= 12.665
V=226,945,000/12.665
V= 17,918,718

Posted by stockraider > 2022-09-04 14:29 | Report Abuse

Thats why i say....u cannot inferred from SSLEE simply guessing by trying very to fit into the margin for gasoline loh!

Dynamic can or has change mah!
Like type of crude, processes of refinery and management intention to churn type of product mix etc loh!

Any misuse of assumption & data will derail this SSLEE very crude model mah!

The possibility of SSLEE model is highly inaccurate is possible mah!

Lu tau boh ??

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 16:03 | Report Abuse

Just want to inform all readers,

For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products.

Further, this will discourage simple refiners who produce mainly gasoline and fuel oil from increasing output and even shutting down their operation - reducing further diesel availability on the market.

HY which had hedged significant amount of gasoline (at about 20% of their sales volume - basically all their gasoline yield ) will be the greatest beneficiary among all regional refineries.

All the information are there, research carefully to gain an edge to make fantastic investment decision of a lifetime.
Good luck..

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-09-04 18:19 | Report Abuse

Dear probability,

Thank you for your research on Hengyuan and its hedging...

Do you think Petron will benefit from high diesel spread? How many % of diesel petron is producing? Thanks

Posted by probability > 2022-09-04 18:30 | Report Abuse

see the Cut volume, % on the first line of the pdf

Posted by probability > Aug 29, 2022 11:08 PM | Report Abuse X

@sslee, ok got it. Its exactly matching the yield they mentioned on the Q&A...thanks

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/crude-oils/Tapis/Crude_Oil_Tapis_assay_pdf_new.pdf


Posted by ValueInvestor888 > Sep 4, 2022 6:19 PM | Report Abuse

Dear probability,

Thank you for your research on Hengyuan and its hedging...

Do you think Petron will benefit from high diesel spread? How many % of diesel petron is producing? Thanks

Posted by investor77 > 2022-09-05 00:10 | Report Abuse

Probability and SsLee has done a great job to educate retailers about Hedging/ Derivative losses. Due to Ukraine-Russia war demand for Diesel will increase and thus widen crack spread. Though Gasoline crack has gone down, HYuan has hedged 18 mil barrels at USD 12 !!. So in coming Q3 for Petron and HYuan, both will still get good profit as Europe faces tight supply of Gas which is replaced by Diesel. Nowhere in KLSE is found a share that will have massive EPS for the year , 3 months already 2.22 !!

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:16 | Report Abuse

Probability where do you check the gasoline margin and any links or charts to it?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-05 02:21 | Report Abuse

1. Diesel (or Gasoil): https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GOC1!/

2. Jet fuel (or Kerosene): https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/

3. Gasoline:

Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:34 | Report Abuse

Hi probability, i have been tracing alot on the links attached by you and sslee. I just wonder here.

When you said this "For HY refinery its actually good if the gasoline margin stays low, as the lower it is the higher the Diesel & Jet fuel crack will go since refinery try to compensate their loss in gasoline with higher margins on other refined products."

When you mentioned gasoline margin stays low means the price they purchased the crude oil or the price of the crack spread that they are selling?

I do know that every 3 crude oil produces 2 gasoline and 1 diesel. So are you referring to this on the gasoline margin.

Or the price difference between the past and present crack spread.

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:35 | Report Abuse

Thanks to all the link on the crack spread prices on the Gasoline, Diesel and Jet fuel(naptha or kerosone).

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:42 | Report Abuse

Honestly speaking, i am clueless. How could the Gasoline margin be low and the rest of Diesel and Jet fuel spike up where as they are distilling heated crude oil in the refinery and produces equally the diesel oil--> Jet oil --> lastly the gasoline oil.

Basically, it is just a process going through the funnel and output it accordingly. How could the margin gasoline or the crack spread gasoline go lower?

Posted by probability > 2022-09-05 02:43 | Report Abuse

the crack - margin itself

this is because european refiners diesel yield is very low with high fuel oil yield

these refiners will stop refining if their margins are too low

Posted by King_trader_shadow > Sep 5, 2022 2:34 AM | Report Abuse

When you mentioned gasoline margin stays low means the price they purchased the crude oil or the price of the crack spread that they are selling?

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:43 | Report Abuse

The jet fuel refers to paraffin or kerosone in other word!~

Posted by probability > 2022-09-05 02:45 | Report Abuse

different product has different selling price on the market based on demand

their yields are different

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/2017/2022-09-02-story-h1627801128-HENGYUAN_How_to_calculate_its_refinery_margin_Why_share_price_hesitatin.jsp

Posted by King_trader_shadow > Sep 5, 2022 2:42 AM | Report Abuse

Honestly speaking, i am clueless. How could the Gasoline margin be low and the rest of Diesel and Jet fuel spike up where as they are distilling heated crude oil in the refinery and produces equally the diesel oil--> Jet oil --> lastly the gasoline oil.

Basically, it is just a process going through the funnel and output it accordingly. How could the margin gasoline or the crack spread gasoline go lower?

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:46 | Report Abuse

Beautifully explained, now it make sense. I miss out the point on the European refiners yield is more on fuel rather than diesel and HY will benefits from this.

Appreciate your explanation at this late night!

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:47 | Report Abuse

One more question, why i can't find the hedging losses done in Q1 not bring forward to Q2? or it is already accumulated as in the box (i hope you get what i'm trying to say)

Posted by King_trader_shadow > 2022-09-05 02:48 | Report Abuse

One more question, why i can't find the hedging losses done in Q1 not bring forward to Q2? or it is already accumulated as in the box (i hope you get what i'm trying to say) in the page 2 of 17.