AngTayKor analyzed & computed what may be requiresd - RM600M net profit - as a catalyst & stimulus to drive up GB's price towards RM5.
@AngTayKor is the First and Original source of this RM600M net profit calculation.
No doubt, he does his math, FA, TA, charting, price action reading, mkt & stk assessment, etc. to access & assess in complete detail in arriving at an answer.
Hahaha why sifu can get mad easily. Immature leh.. 😜 I believe in Sifu ATK for TAURX I believe in Sifu Dragon for Genting as their comments are really precise. I am buying genting using my handsome profit from both Mbsb and Ksl. Okay lah partly is believe in Sifu michael, our no. 1 promoter. We are in line. We are family. I do believe what @Sifu Dragon commented is accurate and just need some time. @Sifu Dragon... May our wish come true and Huat together. 👍👍
lkt says since he's the highest-paid ceo that means he must hv done a stellar job, meeting all his kpi, and so he doesn't understand why u guys keep complaining abt him!
@keyman, I am not the sifu, ATK and Michael Chan are the sifu here.
I have tried to promote Genting and Genm since Jan 2023, taking it as ones of the key beneficiaries of post-COVID recovery plays. But due to various reasons, the share price has not moved up much due to negative market perception of the following: 1) Genting Singapore expanded capex for Sentosa 2.0 from S$4.5b to S$6.8b announced last year, which made the investment public skeptical of returns from such big investments and lower dividend payouts
2) the long process for TauRx in getting necessary conditional approval for its Alzheimer's treatment drug
3) injection of another US$100 million by Genm into US Empire Resorts
4) Closure of Hard Rock Hotel at Sentosa for renovation
5) bigger than expected provision for deferred charges in Dec 2023 quarterly result of Genting Singapore
Most of the issues above have been resolved or are beyond the management control:
1) The expanded capex is for a bigger development at the Waterfront project at Sentosa and will add 700+ hotel rooms, a large shopping mall and exhibition hall. This will help to propel the improvement in non-gaming revenue towards 40% of revenue, from 28% in FY2022 and 32% in FY2023. Genting Singapore registered operating cashflows of about S$900 million in FY2023 and is expected to achieve over S$1.0 billion of operating cashflows a year from FY2024. Furthermore it had S$3.6 billion of net cash as of 31 Dec 2023. Hence GS should have no issue to fund the balance capex of S$4.3 billion (it has already spent some S$2.5b as in mid 2023), i.e. S$800 million a year of capex from FY2024-2028. Total operating cashflows will exceed S$5.0 billion over the period of 2024-2028, plus the S$3.6b cash, GS should be able to fund the remaining capex of S$4.3b + S$2.4b of dividend payouts (4.0 sen each year) over the same period.
2) As for TauRx and based on regular updates from ATK, it looks promising for it to get conditional approval by end 2025 (correct me if wrong)
3) The injection of US$100m into US Empire Resorts was seen by many as an infavourable related party transaction, but I view it differently. As I explained in my previous article on Genm on 1 Mar 2024, the equity injection will increase Genm's equity stakes in Empire Resorts to 90%. Empire Resorts are expected to break even very soon, in fact it was already EBITDA positive since 2023. It should be able to register positive cashflows of US$50million by 2027
4) Hard Rock Hotel was closed for renovation and is scheduled to re-open its doors in early 2025
5) The large deferred tax provision in Dec 2023 did not recur in Mar 2024
Could up to 600 IF Lkt doesnt dump the rubbish. Then will this momentum keep on to the next quarter or two? Or it just like roller coaster... Up down up down.....
Please don’t compare Genting with other companies as it run by monoliths, legacy mindset with low appetite for governance and business ethics. If Empire was such good investment Genting should have bought directly and not through LKT private investment vehicle! It does not make sense! Yet folks here think that’s perfectly ok! Nobody on the Board questioned the ethics of this and at what price the investments were sold…..? I bet you at profit to private entity! This is the issue whether we like it or not.
LKT meets his KPI, someone suggested? What KpI, in particular? Maxims cash flows, maximise sales , revenue, return on capital, EPS, distribution of growth / dividends to Shareholders? I would say none of these!
Well @Choysun, quite simple as an investor I want to make profit and I think Genting is materially undervalued. There is of course no guarantee that the valuation gap will shrink nor that past owner behaviour improves along with investor sentiment in Genting. Let’s hope and pray!
I am just waiting for AGM soon. Minority shareholders, pls register and join full force to question the poor management on the poor performance of Genting which result in its price dropping. Remember Empire !!!
If QR above 600 mil , Genting at least 10 percent up for first day , the day Genting singpoare announed ,Genting first day already up 5 percent closing , now Genting sendiri QR , maximum 15 percent up for first day
International tourism is experiencing a rapid recovery in Asia and the Pacific where arrivals reached 82% of pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2024, after recovering 65% in the year 2023. Asia still a laggard than international, therefore potential recovery is huge.
so much selling pressure GenB, looks like everyone try to sell before QR results out. Hope LKT make GenB great again the darling stocks for foreign investors...
If I were to estimate the net profit of Genting for this Q1 FY2024, I would use its previous Q4 FY2023 result as the base - net profit of RM150 million (including the extraordinary impairment at Genting Singapore).
I would expect Genm to report slightly better results in Q1 FY24 than the RM183m core net profit in Q4 FY23, perhaps touching RM230 million. So the additional earnings contribution to Genting would be (230-183)x 47.1% = RM22 million
Genting Singapore already reported a substantially higher net profit of S$247.4m in Q1 FY24, more than double of net profit of S$118.6m in Q4 FY23. So the additional earnings contribution to Genting would be (247.4 - 118.6) x 3.50 x 52.6% = RM237 million.
Assuming the same earnings from other divisions (oil & gas, power & plantation and Las Vegas) of Genting, I would expect Genting to report a net profit of RM150m +22m +237m = RM409 million.
It may look lower than what many have expected, but it would be 4 times higher than Q1 FY2023 net profit of RM98 million.
Anyway Hong Leong analyst projects a net profit of RM1,763 million for FY2024, and Maybank projects higher net profit of RM2,110 million for FY2024, averaged at RM440m to RM527m per quarter.
I would be happy for Genting to beat my estimate above.
Hi Dragon. I am happy you are now seriously analysing Genting & GENM. Thank you. I also have Genting & GENM in my portfolio (for around two years now). But its share price really sulks! I obviously would have done better if that allocation had been placed instead in the YTL/YTLPower as you already know in our YTLPower forum. But I kept the rule on not “putting all your eggs in one basket” My displeasure with Genting is that I feel the management should prioritise their shareholders more than themselves and not do anything that is perceived to selfishly benefit its main shareholders. One example is two AGMs ago, the CEO passed the microphone to his COO who explained in great detail how much TauRx will potentially bring in, but he failed to tell shareholders that it may be years down the road. And while the share price spiked up, the CEO was quietly selling millions of share! I clearly remembered feeling let down and disgusted! The other needless example is the injection of tons of money into once privately owned US Empire Resort into GENM over many years now. Anyway I hope you are right! Hopefully Empire may start contributing profits. Hoping a better future share price of GENM and Genting.
No selling pressure , this all Ikan bilis share play , Ikan bilis can” t push up quickly , 600 mil net profit gurantee attract local n foreign fund jump in buy
@cktay, I can understand your frustration, same over here. I have been holding Genting shares for more than 2 years but I accumulated some early during Covid times so my entry cost is around RM4.00.
Genting share price has been affected by negative perception of its related party transactions and top management corporate governance issues. But I think as long as the company fundamentals are intact with growing earnings outlook, the market will eventually give it a fair re-rating. Patience is needed to reap this reward.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Michaelchan2024
1,174 posts
Posted by Michaelchan2024 > 2024-05-21 10:10 | Report Abuse
Agreed, better avoid. Inilah Lao Ko Ko biz..