This stock is definitely not for contra players as past trends show that buyers are not many. There seems to be some very patient collection at lower prices.
Wow so many justification by Terry and this one from Thestar. I would really like to see if the long haul claim from the horses mouth against Saturn short haul claim and who is correct.
I think I&P will sapu all and Sime is just getting their money back paid in premium before the offer and treating the three years ago transaction as a business which they made 60cents times 110 Milliion shares equal to RM66. Million profit over 3 years.
And now they will show a gain of additional RM 66. Million for their closing June coming August result as guaranteed and push up their own shares and The take over will have to pay premium for Sime Properties as well.
E&O is now awaiting Penang state government’s endorsement for STP2 land use master plan which was submitted on 21 Apr 2014.
Reclamation works for phase 2A involving 384 acres (131 acres Gurney Drive foreshore for state gov) could begin by 4QCY14/early CY15. Assuming RM150psf reclamation cost,
it could cost RM2.5bn, and we understand that E&O is in the midst of exploring various financing schemes. We estimate that STP2 land bank valuation will comprise 36% (RM1.60/share) of our RNAV.
( Result Snapshot Eastern & Oriental 29.05.2014 ))
Stellar 4QFY14 • 4QFY14 result beat expectations • RM900m unbilled sales to underpin near-term visibility • 3 sen first and final DPS declared • Maintain Buy with RM3.10 TP
Strong 4QFY14. Excluding RM5.7m exceptional gains, E&O reported 4QFY14 core profit of RM44.9m, taking FY14 core earnings to RM82.8m.
The stronger-than-expected 4Q was largely due to the progressive billings of its on-going projects (The Mews, Andaman Tower 1 & 2) as property development EBIT surged by 177% q-o-q and 35% y-o-y to RM90.1m.
Had it not been for the RM21.5m operating loss from the hospitality segment, E&O would have capped a much stronger result.
Provisions and restructuring cost have been charged during the quarter as E&O downsized the Delicious Group operations which could suggest better performance going forward.
Strong earnings visibility. 1. Unbilled sales stand at RM900m (2.4x FY14 property revenue) as at Mar14 which will underpin its near-term earnings visibility.
2. E&O has targeted RM1.2bn sales for FY15 (vs RM730m achieved in FY14), of which Avira@Medini and Andaman condos@STP1 will account for 40% and 32%, respectively.
3. Understand that 1st phase for 208 units of Avira terraces (~RM1.3/unit) have been 70% taken up which will pave the way for subsequent launches. Meanwhile, Andaman 18 East (RM600m GDV@RM1,500psf) is likely to see robust sales given its prime seafronting location within STP1.
According to the analysis experts in the industry and one who knows Terry, says for him to play this at 61 years old to gamble RM319 Million ( One Third of a Billion) he must have an upside of at least 30% to take that kind of risk as a seasoned businessman. That's how the TP RM3.90 was worked out.
First Exchange Sime bought when price was 1.45 they bought bulk at 2.30 ie 85cents premium - 60% Second Exchange Terry bought at RM 2.90 when he sold at RM2.30 ie 60cents premium - 26% Third Exhange will happen after the STP 2 work starts, anytime after January 2015. With the current PE standing at 20.55 (approx) upon the go ahead and re-value, it should go below 10 pending on the price then. Even at RM3 the PE is already below 10 on technical scale.
The above information was related by an analyst fren. The figure of RM319 Million is from 110 Million Shares times RM2.90/shrs. If I tie back to information provided by Saturn being that it will be a short haul rather than a long haul as mentioned by Terry himself (short haul = 1 year or so) The reason is because the interest on RM 319Million if left in the bank assuming 3.15% per annul would have been RM10Million Terry will lose each year it stays below RM2.90. So if it takes even 2 years to wait for above RM3, Terry will lose interest payment of RM 20. Million. I believe Saturn's short haul should be right and my other analyst fren also got a good point
Rem DAIMAN this stock ? few months ago, the price stand at below rm3.00, but 3 weeks ago, Daiman hit 3 times to the higher price to rm3.50 above. Ofcos now have some correction price.
1.E&O this stock as good as Daiman. 2.Penang state gov soon wil approve the STP1 project bcos of Demand in property in Penang. 3. Population increased in penang. 4. FDI increased, jobs had bern created, demand of properties increase as well.
ceo buying back nearly 10 % of issued capital @ 2.9,seems like a no brainer this stock will rise,DOE assessment positive means federal also approve STP2...Penang govt also got a good deal as they are being given more than a hundred acres for free....everyone wins..only some fishes and marine lives lost.
Do u all think ceo ( Terry Tham) will let the price run below Rm2.90? If so, u are incorrect here. in June 2014, E&O price will exceed rm2.90 for sure!
Eh, ktan, I cant get what u mean here? One point here is that If I am Terry Tham or others small shareholders , I will collect E&O share below rm2.90 as fast as, as much as I can begin June 2014.
The answer is simple....if you already have a house would you rent your second and third house and continue to buy your fourth at a lower price while waiting for your second and third hse to appreciate in value?
The analogy is simple, Terry has already secured the 10% from Sime, meaning, he only has to find a way to pay for the shrs. It would be Lu Lu of Terry to take all the shares and pay with self funding because he can get it cheaper from the market at this point. On avg day E&0 can do 1 Million shares easily with queue potential of up to 3 to 4 Million if buyers are willing to commit to sellers price. So if Terry commit to sellers price daily, he can do 10 Million shares every 3 days making up almost 10% of the offered 110 Million shrs. Of course he cannot do it consequetively otherwise the share price will shoot beyond the 2.90 too early. Technically if he continues to buy daily, he will achieve his 110 Million shares over 40 trading days.
I think you get my drift. Hence the 110Million shares offered as buy back to Terry may really only interest him partially similar to the example I shared on hse rental whereby he would buy in from market between now till it's 2.90 and take a portion of the 110 Million shrs offered only, while the balance can be shared with partners. He will do his math early (anyway he graduated with actuarial science and his math SHLD be good) while he buy thru market and rile up the share price.....
If I assume a delay of starting the reclamation to Feb/Mar 2015from the targeted January, the should have a beautiful figure running up from approval to reclamation start date. I have already mentioned my TP and the run up will be interesting
We met E&O’s management to seek clarification on Sime Darby’s Wednesday announcement that it had sold a 9.9% stake in E&O to Datuk Terry Tham for RM319m cash.
We view this vote of confidence by Datuk Terry positively, as the purchase price is at a 22% premium to E&O’s Wednesday closing price. The strong commitment shown could help accelerate the approval process for Seri Tanjung Pinang Phase 2 (STP2), which should catalyse E&O’s share price further.
We make no changes to our EPS, Add rating or target basis (30% discount to RNAV), though we raise our target price after lifting RNAV by 9% to RM4.28 to factor in an imminent start to STP2 reclamation work.
We met E&O's Deputy MD, Mr Eric Chan, yesterday to seek clarification on a recent announcement that MD Datuk Terry had acquired 110m shares for a 9.9% stake in E&O from Sime Darby at RM2.90/share. The reasons for Datuk Terry’s purchase were:
1. His 3-year MD contract will expire in Aug and there were discussions with Sime on whether he would take a bigger/smaller role when that happens.
2. After selling out three years ago, Datuk Terry realised that E&O is still very much undervalued and provides the best platform to embark on big projects.
3. Datuk Terry intends to rope in E&O’s management to participate in the 10% stake and will structure it in such a way as to make it attractive to management, with a view to gaining its commitment to the company’s long-term growth.
We view the acquisition and likely senior-management participation positively, as it shows strong conviction in and commitment to E&O.
Also, with Datuk Terry's higher stake in the company, the Penang government should draw greater comfort that the landmark STP2 project will be carried out with E&O’s management fully on board and hopefully approve the project's master plan sooner.
Also, to justify the premium he paid, Datuk Terry will be spending more time in Malaysia and is likely to drive the group harder. What You Should Do
Continue to accumulate E&O, with this 9.9% stake purchase and positive newsflow on the STP2 project as key catalysts.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
samsung555
478 posts
Posted by samsung555 > 2014-05-30 10:32 | Report Abuse
This stock is definitely not for contra players as past trends show that buyers are not many. There seems to be some very patient collection at lower prices.