Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 22:59 | Report Abuse

Google "size of vape market in Malaysia".

From Code Blue:

"KUALA LUMPUR, August 21 – The retail value for Malaysia’s vape market grew by 53 per cent from RM2.27 billion in 2019 to RM3.48 billion in 2023, according to an industry report.

The Malaysian Vape Industry Study 2023 by the Malaysian Vape Chamber of Commerce (MVCC) also revealed that the number of adult vape or e-cigarette users in Malaysia increased by 27 per cent from 1.1 million in 2019 to 1.4 million in 2022."

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:00 | Report Abuse

Google "size of cigarette market in Malaysia"

See Global data site:

"The Malaysia cigarettes market size was MYR4.89 billion ($1,182.4 million) in 2021 and is expected to decrease at a CAGR of more than 1% during 2021-2026. The tobacco business in Malaysia does not appear to have promising futures as total volumes are predicted to drop from 2021 to 2026. The industry is expected to post value growth which can be attributed to price increases majorly driven by increases in taxes on tobacco products."

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:02 | Report Abuse

Google "what is BAT share of cigarrette market in Malaysia" - you will realize BAT owns 52.4% of Malaysia cigarrette market and this market is declining.

You will also see BAT management keen to convert its cigarette smokers into Vape, not realizing that whilst the same customers are sticky on cigarettes, once they convert to Vape, they will have hundreds of other choices in Vape.

The Vape market is very, very different than cigarettes market.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:04 | Report Abuse

So, these are my thesis. In cigarettes, BAT commands 52.4% of a declining market. In vape, BAT's a nobody, based on my research. I'm willing to monitor for a year to see if my thesis is right or not. Looking for people to provide counter examples to improve my learnings.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:10 | Report Abuse

https://www.globaldata.com/store/report/malaysia-cigarettes-market-analysis/ - a good report. BAT is the market leader in cigarettes. Dunhill is the more recognized brand by BAT. The best thing is for BAT to protect its cigarette segment as it is a cash cow. The question is - is BAT Board and Management willing to hunker down, or will they follow ASTRO to be aggressive and die faster?

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:12 | Report Abuse

My experience with senior management and Board members is that they typically don't like to do nothing when market share is declining. They always want to do something. Especially when they are paid handsome fees - see the Annual Reports.

Because of this human nature, more likely than not, they will make mistakes and run the company to the ground. Because of this realization, I sold and exited.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:15 | Report Abuse

It is human nature - Board and senior management nature - that when revenues decline, they will eventually sack the CEO. And replace the CEO with someone more aggressive. Then the CEO takes big bets, spend a lot, and basically run the company to the ground. Like new ASTRO CEO. Took on big debts to be aggressive and then, realize that it can no longer afford to pay high dividends because Finance costs that comes from big loans is unable to generate enough cash and so, they had to cut dividends drastically.

So far, based on what I've seen on BAT management, I haven't see they cut Directors fees by 20% yet. Like to see that before I go back in. For now, I have a feeling Director fees and CEO salaries will rise rather than cut 20%.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:19 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett is famous for saying this - "“When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.”"

In BAT's case, its business reputation (declining cigarette revenues) is likely to remain intact, no matter how good BAT management is. That's my thesis.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:21 | Report Abuse

Someone once posted past 10 years of BAT EPS. My own tabulation showed me that past 8 years, its EPS has been declining. I don't think this is due to Management mistake, but cigarettes have a reputation for bad economics these recent years and I don't think this trend is going to do a U turn ... it's one of those macro trends that is likely to persist.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:31 | Report Abuse

Looking at price action .. chart wise .. I think it's too early to try to catch the bottom. It is only starting its downtrend. My thesis is it needs to do what it did during Jul to Nov 2022 i.e. drop more, find a bottom, build a base, test the downtrend again and again ... and when it finally has built a base and couldn't go down anymore, then, that's the time to buy anticipating the next path is up. But that could take several months and meanwhile, I think we'll continue to see lower prices.

I'm willing to be wrong here and not lose, and being too early to catch a falling knife.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:41 | Report Abuse

To be honest, in a long term down trend like BAT, I am only about 33% confident of winning the trade on the long side. So, I really need to see strong technical signal that the bottom is really in, it has been basing, it has been testing lower lows and fails.

Without this technical signal, I will prefer to miss the opportunity to win from the long side.

But you could be right ... maybe I should stop monitoring BAT and move on. Why trade from the long side in a downtrend ... maybe because I'm looking for the same opportunity that existed in Nov 2022 where BAT has a fast and nice run up - the trader side of me is "hooked" to try to find the right technical setup. Hence, I linger here to stay in touch with the market. I doubt anyone's comments here will move markets, as i3 is just one site.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:48 | Report Abuse

What I find interesting is one of the commentators mentioned candlesticks. My experience with candlesticks is that it is random. E.g. last Friday, we have a bullish engulfing pattern, which is bullish. However, today's pattern negate that i.e. this is now a bullish reversal failure - indicating more lower prices to come. However, I think my view here is "random" i.e. 50/50 chance that this view will be wrong or right.

I've seen this randomness in candlesticks for many, many years (nearly 2 decades). I don't have an edge.

My edge comes in fundamental analysis (and combined with timing and technical patterns). Without fundamental analysis, my technical results is just 50/50. I'm willing to illustrate with BAT over time how random techical / candlestick trading really is.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-25 23:50 | Report Abuse

Benjamin Graham is one of my favorite authors.

"In The Intelligent Investor, Benjamin Graham famously writes that: “Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.” Graham viewed any purchase of a stock or bond as an investment in a business, rather than the purchase of just a piece of paper."

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-26 00:05 | Report Abuse

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/MYS/malaysia/smoking-rate-statistics

The % of Malaysians who smokes (legal and illegal cigarettes) has declined. GEG (Generation End Game), global trends and vaping/alternatives are likely to cause this % to continue to fall in future years.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-26 00:10 | Report Abuse

Another reason to exit BAT is that if I am not mistaken, it is part of Bursa Malaysia Top 100 companies.

However, if BAT keeps declining, it will fall out of the Top 100 eventually.

That's when institutions will further dump this stock.

Just be aware that DCA this stock is probably not a good idea.
If you can't bring yourself to sell a losing stock, at least, don't throw good monies after bad investment.

I know how hard it is to sell at a loss.

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-09-26 00:15 | Report Abuse

For many of you who are long BAT for a long time and sitting at a loss and wondering what to do, I've been in this situation many times before and the only advice I have is - be a good trader.

If you want to do a DCA, be a good trader.
Know when market signals a price bottom.
Then, buy anticipating selling at higher price, regardless of prior average holding.
This way, you might lower your average cost from gains from trading.

However, this is easier said than done, even for very good traders who trades against the trend.

Much easier to cut loss and move on to new trades. Start with a clean slate.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-26 12:00 | Report Abuse

Thanks everybody for great inputs. It's a forum to share their thoughts whether positive or negative...
I jumped off at 13 and on sideline and not sure timing to maybe, maybe only get in. So many currents affecting this counter.
Anyway good luck 😀🤞 evrryone

Posted by TakeProfits > 2023-09-26 12:01 | Report Abuse

Thanks dividendguy 67....great thoughts

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-26 12:56 | Report Abuse

Smoking-related addiction is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-09-26 13:01 | Report Abuse

I want to buy Vuse. But a quick google search and I have no idea where to buy. How.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-26 13:20 | Report Abuse

Smoking-related addiction is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-09-26 13:44 | Report Abuse

BAT's Vuse is rank #1 with ~41% vape addicts globally and has just been launched on 31 July, 2023 recently in Malaysia so the verdict about its popularity is still not determine yet however I anticipate or don't discard this product to gain traction in the next couple of months.
BAT Global Headquarters must begin to push for Vuse to be regarded as an exclusive brand akin to Dunhill perhaps exclusiveNameforVapeProducthill can do the trick.
Research and experiments must be done to find a secret ingredient for exclusiveNameforVapeProducthill to ensure success in the luxury tier.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-26 13:46 | Report Abuse

Vaping and Popcorn Lung: Diacetyl is frequently added to flavored e-liquid to enhance the taste. Inhaling diacetyl causes inflammation and may lead to permanent scarring in the smallest branches of the airways — popcorn lung — which makes breathing difficult. Popcorn lung has no lasting treatment.

Vaping is bad for lungs. Smoking-related addiction, after all, is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-26 16:13 | Report Abuse

Vuse is new to the market, give BAT time to promote the products

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2023-09-26 20:09 | Report Abuse

This forum if can get input by those long time investors will push up the standard of the retail investors in Malaysia, anyway thanks for inputs n thoughts by Dividendguy even though had sold out most of the BAT. BAT facing declining profits in last few quarters, I entered into BAT in 2020 ( roughly that time), entry time it looked like BAT ngam ngam reached the bottom level at that time....My average cost is not that high if compare to those buying this counter since 2016-17. BAT is an international company n the top management should put effort to catch up the market share at Vape market ( even though they were late to get in ). As U said, it is not correct or wrong to foresee the near future profit level for one counter, some find it is attractive at this below 9.80 level , some think the quarterly profit will keep falling, worth less than 9.00. Thanks MOBAjob for his views as well....

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-26 20:58 | Report Abuse

Vaping and Popcorn Lung: Diacetyl is frequently added to flavored e-liquid to enhance the taste. Inhaling diacetyl causes inflammation and may lead to permanent scarring in the smallest branches of the airways — popcorn lung — which makes breathing difficult. Popcorn lung has no lasting treatment.

Vaping is bad for lungs. Smoking-related addiction, after all, is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-09-27 17:17 | Report Abuse

Where can I buy Vuse?

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-27 17:33 | Report Abuse

@UncleFollower. You can buy online:

https://www.vuse.com/gb/en/

Posted by Investman1981 > 2023-09-27 19:27 | Report Abuse

Can buy vuse at 7-11 outlets. I saw it already

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-28 06:18 | Report Abuse

Say "NO and stay away from it. Diacetyl is frequently added to flavored e-liquid to enhance the taste. Inhaling diacetyl causes inflammation and may lead to permanent scarring in the smallest branches of the airways — popcorn lung — which makes breathing difficult. Popcorn lung has no lasting treatment.

Vaping is bad for lungs. Smoking-related addiction, after all, is bad habit of the past. The new trend is social media addiction for the younger generations

Posted by Amazonboy > 2023-09-29 12:28 | Report Abuse

Vuse RM22/ 1500 puffs...d liquid is made in USA & approved by FDA...much better than China vape flooding d market

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-09-29 15:24 | Report Abuse

Vuse will gain popularity in one day

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-09-29 18:26 | Report Abuse

Be careful. Don't mention strawberry - it's RED colour (OMG)

Posted by bachnorton > 2023-10-01 17:37 | Report Abuse

Its scary to see some individuals have very biased view about this stock and have 100% confidence that investing to BAT is a right investment decision and should all in to this stock.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-10-01 17:54 | Report Abuse

If can fall from over RM60 to less than RM10, might down all the way to below RM6

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-10-01 21:24 | Report Abuse

Sometimes in stock, accumulating less is more wealth

Posted by MOBAjobg > 2023-10-02 09:42 | Report Abuse

@EngineeringProfit
A Vuse eLiquid does not contain Acetoin, Diacetyl, Methyl Eugneol, Oils containing THC or Vitamin E Acetate and 2,3 Pentadione.

Posted by teknikal > 2023-10-02 11:12 | Report Abuse

Downtrend intact, price below MA20, 50 and 200.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-10-02 12:26 | Report Abuse

Thank you I will try 7-11

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-10-02 15:42 | Report Abuse

It will rebound after this massive oversold

Posted by Kevin Tam > 2023-10-03 13:33 | Report Abuse

BAT is quite cheap n high dividend yield at the price range of 9.10-9.50, n believe the cigarrete giant will grab back vape market that they entered in a bit late. Hopefully, coming quarter, the quarterly profit is about 57-60 million....

Posted by tnang > 2023-10-03 14:38 | Report Abuse

9.22 [ecah. cu at support 9

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-10-03 15:17 | Report Abuse

See u there

Posted by DividendGuy67 > 2023-10-03 16:31 | Report Abuse

Downtrend intact. New low 9.19. No upside yet.

Posted by ks55 > 2023-10-03 16:45 | Report Abuse

BAT is a sunset industry. No tangible asset. If company decided to cash out, buyer will not offer good value for its listing status.

Goodwill merely due to the brand. Market shrinking, profit shrinking, dividend also shrinking.

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-10-03 16:48 | Report Abuse

gg

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-10-04 10:18 | Report Abuse

...If got extra cash flow, apply DCA on it. 52 weeks low alrdy

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2023-10-04 22:18 | Report Abuse

BATman returns kah?

Huat huat

Posted by BradonOoi > 2023-10-05 11:42 | Report Abuse

This time It really rebounds after massive oversold 😀

Posted by UncleFollower > 2023-10-05 17:24 | Report Abuse

Finally bought Vuse...must say, good product. Good enough to kill off their own Dunhill actually 😂