Maybank put a target price of RM10.10 on Yinson. If you compare the PER of Yinson and Coastal, Coastal should be RM8. So, wait for the re-rating by broking houses on Coastal in the next few days after its quarterly report is out.
Yinson has 5 FPSO compare to Coastal 1 jack-up rig, the Mokhzani factor plus share split and bonus issue in the pipeline help push Yinson to new high, for Coastal the rig contract already factored into the recent price hike, plus the dividend news out, what more to push this share?
Price drop because of private placement proposal? the retail and contra player will panic and desperate sell like no tomorrow, the coastal is net cash company without much debts but still need huge money to working on coming huge project, strongly believed the management will pushed share price to new higher level before price define, also this will allow company no to bearing interest from bank which good for long term investment.
Yinson also doing private placement before, look at current price and appreciation.
News Yesterday, Coastal Contracts (COASTAL) announced it is proposing a private placement of up to 10% of its issued and paid-up capital.
The exercise is expected to be completed before 3Q14.
The rationale for the private placement is: (i) to raise funds and avoid interest expense for future expansion by not having to revert to loans, (ii) strengthening the financial position and (iii) enhancing the liquidity and marketability of the shares.
Comments The maximum scenario will raise 54.4m shares and expand share base by 23.8% to 598.0m shares (from current base of 483.3m shares).
Based on an indicative price of RM3.81 per share, the maximum scenario will raise RM207.1m in gross proceeds of which a major portion will be utilised for working capital.
Under the maximum scenario assumption, EPS dilution will be c.19.2% for FY14-15, but we believe new earnings (from jack-up rig and jack-up rig compression unit) will absorb the dilutions.
As it is currently in a net cash position, the exercise will further strengthen its balance sheet.
Outlook The shipbuilding division is currently riding on a cyclical uptrend with order book standing at c.RM1.2-1.3b. Although net margins have normalised at 15-25% from FY12 onwards, they are still lucrative, in our books.
COASTAL's maiden jack-up rig is due to be delivered in mid-14, which will spearhead its move into an assetownership model versus the previous build-and-sell model. According to our channel checks, there are >40 jack-up rig contracts in South-east Asia that are expiring from mid-2013 to 2015, which implies abundant opportunities on the horizon. Moreover, there could be cross-selling opportunities with its entry into Mexico.
COASTAL’s long-term jack-up rig compression unit earnings will kick-start in FY15.
Forecast No change to FY13-14 EPS until the private placement is completed.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM
Valuation We maintain our target price of RM5.76 based on an unchanged target CY15 PER of 14x.
Assuming a maximum scenario for the private placement, our target price will be revised to RM4.65/share; which still provides a hefty upside from the current share price.
Whilst this PER valuation is above the stock’s historical average +2 standard deviation PER of 11.9x, we believe this is justifiable as it is moving into asset ownership (versus just depending on vessel sales).
Risks to Our Call (i) Lower-than-expected margins and vessel sales; (ii) Inability to secure contracts for maiden jack-up rig; and (iii) delay or cancellation of jack-up rig gas compression unit.
The price retreat should end soon and rebound any time on coming week. The management need raising fund with reasonable price and they will push back the price to next higher before offer price define. the beautiful balance sheet and huge order book will easily regain back those diluted portion of EPS, also the new O&G contract and coming completion of jack-up rig will bring company to next level..I rather accumulating now but not chasing high later when price rebound back.
very encouraged these two days, congrats to all value investor of Coastal and warrant holder.
Note: the Ukraine issue might caused market slump in short while, but long run is good for Malaysia in term of oil price/foreign fund stop pulling out.
Anyone know when the management fix d placement shares price.if at rm3.81 n 5 days everage market price is to be taken into account.then d share will come down again before d fixi d price unless the placement lrice us raised to hjgher price.
chinesetea,i think they get the average of a certain no. of days,say 5 or 10 days prior to the fixing date,then they put a discount to it.I will have to refer back to get the exact formula :). So the higher they push,the higher will be the fixed price but of course have to be backed by the fundamentals.
My thinking is the higher they pushed, the more fund they can get from pp.The price they decide will become a major support price because they will unlikely to sell below that. Short term it will cause the price drop a bit but long term still in tact. Am I right rchi?
chinesetea,given the tapering issue,i think they will try to get the exercise over as soon as possible.Afterall O&G ctrs r on fire now,so use the sentiment to their best benefit.So i dun think it will drop much,tp shud be around 6.00.
The issue price of the Placement Shares will be determined and fixed by the Board at a later date after receipt of all relevant approvals for the Proposed Private Placement (“Price-Fixing Date”). Based on Paragraph 6.04(a) of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”) (“Listing Requirements”), the Placement Shares may be issued based on a discount of not more than ten percent (10%) to the five (5)-day volume weighted average market price (“VWAP”) of Coastal Shares immediately preceding the Price-Fixing Date. The key is the fixing date that has not been determined. So prepare for price movement soon.
rchi, thanks for all the updates. Will do some digging up on the topic of private placements but briefly would like to know : companies do that to get more funds. Who takes up the 10% and why would they pay a higher price (if it is being pushed up) and how would these parties benefit by picking up the PP. Hope my questions are relevant.
siva,it is usually funds that believe in this co and its management that will subscribe as it is not easy to buy such a big block in the open mkt.Why they subscribed?I think management must have painted them a rosy outlook for this co and they also buy their their story and dun mind paying a higher price for a block of shares. :)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
KahYong Tan
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Posted by KahYong Tan > 2014-02-20 16:16 | Report Abuse
u all earn money secretly enough..hehe..don let so many ppl know 1st..slowly accumulating~~waiting good result released!!