No buying appetite even with better Q1 results. Because investors know the better earnings is not sustainable, given the slipping BDI. Maybe as low as RM1.60
analysts are expecting stable economy will improve 2014 and 2015 BDI, it seems that investors believe their reports refering to the share price push up. I just connect maybulk with topglove, a few years back topglove was on its cyclic downtrend, its PE was damned worrying, but then after a while it kept up and up before its PE shows good valued investment.
Yes if you get in at tail end of a long cycle. No if you are in mid cycle and that will be a long wait. Important question is "Has the long cycle ended for Dry Bulk Carriers? Ïs upturn just around the corner?"
I would like to seek help to answer this,when I read 2013 MAYBULK annual report, it stated : "Share of results of an associate 48,646" , I think this is referring to POSH.
This 48,646(k) is POSH share earning for Maybulk ? or POSH profit x POSH share % hold by Maybulk? And more importantly, this amount is actually paper gain only, is it ? Thanks.
Hi Tribaleps, thanks for your reply, however forgive me I still not understand.... appreciate if you can elaborate further how this amount come from ? Thanks.
blackdove, since maybulk holds only 21% (less then 30%), POSH is a associate. Meaning, 21% of POSH net profit is reported as profit. If it were >30%, it will be a subsidiary.
Bone....Firstly, Maybulk does not have RM155m net cash - slightly below RM60m only as at end-Mar 2014 (you have not accounted for its borrowings). Secondly, the market value of its 10 dry bulk vessels (of which 4 partially owned) and 3 tankers is only about RM700m and not over RM2bn. Last but not least, Maybulk isn't gonna re-rate on POSH if POSH itself does not re-rate. Also, if investors can buy POSH for its strong growth at less than 10x one-year forward PE, why would people buy Maybulk at 17x?
first of all, i dont think they are stupid by not exercising the put option. now we are come to whether we trust the management people of maybulk or not? if we trust, we keep, if no trust, sell off. i will trust technical analysis.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tribaleps
23 posts
Posted by tribaleps > 2014-05-27 10:20 | Report Abuse
WSCAPITAL - FYI, Maybulk doesn't recognise revenue from POSH, only its share of profits from it ...and this was since 2009.