Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-05 16:45 | Report Abuse

Why so selfish?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-05 17:04 | Report Abuse

Solid closing for Maybulk

As more people under a cyclical like Maybulk they will start nibbling

Once good results out due to enhanced profits as indicated by spirally baltic dry index they will start buying in earnest like buying into Dayang, carimin, naim, penergy and Uzma. All in cyclical uptrend now

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-05 17:06 | Report Abuse

To understand a cyclical stock like Maybulk all should go read up Sifu Peter Lynch or Howard Marks on mastering the cyclical

Posted by yangxi > 2019-09-05 20:47 | Report Abuse

Maybulk( sinapore pacc offshore) will benefit also.. last yr 88 sen a share got some :)

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-09-05 21:45 | Report Abuse

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 5, 2019 5:06 PM | Report Abuse 

To understand a cyclical stock like Maybulk all should go read up Sifu Peter Lynch or Howard Marks on mastering the cyclical

ME : i dont even read any book for the past 1 year.
How to overcome this ?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-05 22:51 | Report Abuse

How to overcome?

Easy lah

Get inside a room with attached bath and 4 weeks provision of food enough for one month

NO TV and handphone allowed but only these 5 books

1. The Intelligent investor by Ben Graham

2. One up on wall street. Peter Lynch

3. Beating the Street. Peter lynch

4. Mastering the cyclical. Howard Marks

5. John Neff on investments

Sure to read then

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-05 22:52 | Report Abuse

And someone please lock the room from outside. And throw away the keys

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-09-06 00:54 | Report Abuse

Hahaha!

This is military way ?
Thanks for the ways.

Probably it will works.

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-09-06 00:55 | Report Abuse

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 5, 2019 10:51 PM | Report Abuse 

How to overcome? 

Easy lah 

Get inside a room with attached bath and 4 weeks provision of food enough for one month 

NO TV and handphone allowed but only these 5 books 

1. The Intelligent investor by Ben Graham 

2. One up on wall street. Peter Lynch 

3. Beating the Street. Peter lynch 

4. Mastering the cyclical. Howard Marks 

5. John Neff on investments 

Sure to read then



ME : GOD, LOTS OF BOOKS TO READ...

Posted by FamousAmos > 2019-09-06 00:58 | Report Abuse

Read more so you don’t end up as such a lousy stock picker

Posted by No right Nor wrong Only to Win > 2019-09-06 03:00 | Report Abuse

Why cloud & judge peoples? 
While u dont even trade a real trade before . 

U shud feel shamed .

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-06 03:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by calvintaneng > Sep 6, 2019 3:30 AM | Report Abuse X

supperman 888 calvintaneng, can't say like this lah. If baltic dry index rise will benefit maybulk, then gold index rise will benefit poh kong, then oil index rise will benefit petronas loh. You see petronas, poh kong got benefit or not? Can not say like this mah. Must see eps got up or no up. Maybulk eps never up, so no benefit loh.



calvintaneng THERE IS A CO-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE

1) COCOA PRICE RISE BENEFITS GUAN CHONG

2) NICKEL PRICE RISE BENEFITS TONG HERR

3) SO BALTIC DRY INDEX RISE WILL BENEFIT MAYBULK
05/09/2019 8:27 PM



THE ANSWERS ARE CLEAR AND OBVIOUS


Check it out for yourself


Poh Kong anticipates better profit on higher gold price

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2019/01/14/poh-kong-anticipates-better...


High oil price boosts Petronas’ 3Q net profit to RM14.3b

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2018/11/28/high-oil-price-boosts-petro...

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-06 04:20 | Report Abuse

PAST HISTORICAL RECORD OF MAYBULK ALSO SHOWED BALTIC INDEX RISE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RISE OF MAYBULK SHARE PRICE


SEE YEAR 2004 REPORT (15 YEARS AGO NEWS)

Maybulk's share price has been on the uptrend since August in tandem with the rise
in the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI), which measures dry bulk charter rates.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2004/11/24/maybulk--shares-rise-on-strong--third-quarter-results

Posted by Nepo > 2019-09-06 08:46 | Report Abuse

Just add more, the price is nearly at historical low but with better prospect now.

Posted by Shootup > 2019-09-06 09:47 | Report Abuse

expected not last long, spike up due to ships are under maintenance to comply low Sulphur emission, they all will be back and no more tight in supply, actually china demand for coal and commodities reduced abt 4%, this wont bode well for shipment rates

Posted by graynoize > 2019-09-06 09:48 | Report Abuse

Sudah layu.

Posted by Zhuge_Lin > 2019-09-06 13:00 | Report Abuse

BDI dropping.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-06 13:11 | Report Abuse

BDI pullback slightly ok

TIDES DO NOT COME STRAIGHT

THEY COME IN WAVES

THREE FEET FORWARD THEN TWO FEET PULLBACK

BUT IT PROGRESSES BY WAVE AFTER WAVE

SO KEEP THE FAITH.

DON'T MEASURE IT BY FOOT TO FOOT

GIVE IT TIME AND SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES

AS FOR THE ELEVATED BDI FOR JUNE TO AUGUST 2019 THE PROFITS ALREADY SECURED & LOCKED IN FOR NOV 2019 RESULTS

ALL WE KNOW IS - JUNE, JULY & AUGUST WERE GREAT MONTHS OF FEVERISH UPTREND FOR BDI INDEX

SO THE RESULT FOR NOV 2019 IS CERTAIN AND FIXED

NOW FOR SEPT TO NOV 2019 = THE RESULTS WILL COME OUT FOR FEB 2020

Posted by Shootup > 2019-09-06 15:35 | Report Abuse

Nov 2019 result will be for jul, aug, sep, NOT include jun. Obviously u have miscalculated, the BDI up is because temporarily ships taken for scrubber installation, affecting shipment supply, they will somehow back on sea. analysts view bdi below 2000, because china demand contracted. NTA is half the share price, be careful

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-06 18:29 | Report Abuse

All that I checked and double checked already

Correct.

Nov 2019 result will include July, August and Sept months

Bdi up is due to 2 reasons

1. Not enough ships due to old ships taken off

A) For scrapping as it is no longer worthwhile as installing scrubber costs Usd3 millions to usd4 millions. So not viable
This shows that many ships will be svrapped due to stringent requirement for low sulphur fuel

B) Those that got scrubber installed will now charge more to recoup high cost incurred
So bdi index will still go up as added costs will be borne by shipping. So with the new ruling starting in year 2020...shipping bulk goods cost will remain elevated

As for Maybulk it has wisely sold off old ships and bought never and more fuel efficient ships

This is a twin windfall

1. No down time like others
2. Fuel efficient save costs in time of high fuel cost

As cost pressure increased due to increased demand coupled with dwindling supply of ships the daily rate has skyrocketed from
Usd10,000 per day to Usd30,000 per day

This is like a whirlwind of Fortune to Maybulk

Baltic dry index expected to power over 3000 point index first and maybulk share price shall play catch-up

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-06 18:37 | Report Abuse

Thanks to the foresight of Maybulk management

They kept updating the bulk ships to newer more fuel efficient ships

They say luck is when preparation meets opportunity

So this sudden windfall of having newer fuel efficient ships with pricing power due to huge shortfall of available bulk ships will propel earnings of Maybulk in coming quarterly reports

It was the fantastic results of Naim and dayang that awakened these oil stocks into multi year highs

So the upcoming fantastic results of Maybulk will see a bull run like those years of 2004 - 2008 once more

Maybulk - a bulk carrier stock whose time has time

Better don't miss this superbull

Get on board early before it crosses Rm1.00

Posted by freddiehero > 2019-09-06 19:25 | Report Abuse

yes it very good

Posted by freddiehero > 2019-09-06 19:25 | Report Abuse

but hope get more discount kakkaka...

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-06 20:16 | Report Abuse

Discount?

in boom times Maybulk was over Rm5.00

Anything below Rm1.00 already cheap

Posted by Nepo > 2019-09-06 20:47 | Report Abuse

Good analysis, calvintaneng, u has done a very good job and share this info with us.tq

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-07 00:32 | Report Abuse

Hi guys

I just did a very simple calculation on the Baltic Dry Index from 1st April to 30th June

Adding lowest point to highest point and divides by 2 = 1226 points average figure

Then taking July 1st index points about 1750 points to latest index point at 2462 and divides by 2 = 2106 points

So index rose to 2106 points from 1226 index is already a gain of 71% in revenue if Baltic dry index remain at status quo of today

That means that Maybulk will report a 4 sen profit by November 2019

If BDI Index should rise to cross 3,000 index?

Then the growth will be very exceptional

Easily register a 6 sen to 7 sen profit for Maybulk in November 2019

Of course as we are only into 6th of September there are 25 more days to go

Come what may the Results will range from

1) Good

2) Great

3) Fantastic

From here we expect Maybulk to trade at least 80 sen to over Rm1.00 by Nov 2019 & Feb 2020

Regards

Calvin Tan

Posted by Huat1 > 2019-09-07 10:32 | Report Abuse

Okay, BDI goes up profitability increase for Maybulk.

So what about business volume?
If trade slow down, business affected. Revenue will be affected too. Right?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-07 12:12 | Report Abuse

Huat1

For Maybulk if you check the records of past quarterly reports it has been building new bulk ships and sold off old ones

This is a great foresight as by Jan 1st 2020 very stringent standard will be applied for bulk shipping

They must have low sulphur content in their fuel which maybulk has already prepared ahead of time very wisely.

For those old ships that burn high sulphur fuel they must now install scrubbers to clean up sulphur waste before releasing it. And the cost is prohibitive...from Usd3 millions or more each

So a large numbers of bulk carriers that find it not economical to comply have been scrapped for it's iron for recycling

Now with so many taken off for scrapping and retrofitting of scrubbers there is not enough ships to meet the sudden rise of demand when Vale resumed it's iron ore delivery

So Maybulk being proactive in management has the Right Bulk carriers at the most opportune time to reap a bounty

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-07 12:14 | Report Abuse

Maybulk is very lucky?

Luck is preparation meeting opportunity!

Posted by Nepo > 2019-09-07 15:53 | Report Abuse

But we don't know how many bulk ships out of 17 are IMO 2020 low sulphur compliance?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-07 16:15 | Report Abuse

Nepo

All the details can be found in Maybulk Annual Report

They retrofitted all Vessels and sold off those that did not comply

Also 3 Brand New Bulk Carriers were built in 2018/19

See http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/6116021

Posted by Nepo > 2019-09-07 18:58 | Report Abuse

However, there is a possibility that most countries will ignore IMO 2020, for instant, China which is the world largest importer of raw material. If it happens, then the shipping companies which don't install smoke emission scrubbers can offer cheaper bulk rates because they don't incur such installation cost at first.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-07 19:55 | Report Abuse

Surprisingly, China is among the 1st few countries that want cleaner fuel for ships. In Shenzhen all buses now run on electricity

See China on IMO2020

https://www.todayonline.com/world/chinas-stricter-rules-shipping-emissions-boon-imo-2020-compliance-woodmac

Posted by chngmenghui > 2019-09-07 21:05 | Report Abuse

Can we go for syscorp instead?any opinion frm u all?

Posted by ming > 2019-09-07 23:50 | Report Abuse

China will complies with the rules.. oni u.s yang degil

Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > 2019-09-08 07:18 | Report Abuse

For once Calvin ta n has made good research on Baltic index and it's effects on shipping companies. However as usual he doesn't dig deep enough and get the right companies to invest in.

Either that or he has a smokescreen going.

We ask know maybulk is not the main proxy to bulk carriers. They only have handyman and supermax and a few old panamax.

But 70% of index is dominated by the biggest ships the capesize with huge dwt of more than 100k tonnes. Those are the ones enjoying the huge profit margins recently

As usual we need to understand the shipping industry clearly.

1. The best companies are those with good long term contracts. In these case charters from vales iron ore mine startup in South America sending to China bypassing Panama canal.
2. The bigger the ship, the lower the costs of delivery and operational expenses. It is true there has been a huge consolidation and selloff of old ships to comply with new rules and just general building of the newer more efficient ships.
3. Maybulk is a non profitable bulk carrier company. It is true that it will make some money from the rise and the supply increase from commodities, but that is just a temporary short term action.
4. We should look to the wonderful drybulk shipping company that has been profitable even through the lean years, with superior management, good profit margin, fantastic locations and charters. That is what we should be buying with the recent increase in the Baltic dry index.

I am sure Calvin tan knows which company I am talking about.

Thanks Calvin for sharing this idea, even a broken clock can be right twice a day. I have just added to my portfolio a new non bursa stock.

Posted by soojinhou > 2019-09-08 07:46 | Report Abuse

Or, buy a dirt cheap shipbuilder specialising in bulk carriers trading at net cash level, yields 5% in dividends, and have consistently been profitable even through the leanest of years. A company that is the the most profitable shipyard in the world, even when state backed yards in Korea, Singapore and Japan and bleeding red ink. And it's an STI constituent stock.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-08 18:49 | Report Abuse

Good, at least Philip much better than the incorrigible 3iii whose mind is closed to new ideas

As for Maybulk it might not have capesize but it has post panamax and supramax bulk carriers. Prices also moving up in tandem

As Baltic index rises it will lift up all bulk carriers share prices as a whole

When the tide comes in all huge bulk carriers well prepared ahead of time shall reap the benefits

And Maybulk just commissioned 3 brand new bulk carriers lately just in time for the new upsurge in demand and in prices

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-08 18:56 | Report Abuse

3 New Kamsarmax bulk carriers are of 82,000 dead weight tonnage

They command high prices now

These 3 brand new additions arriving just in time will greatly boost Maybulk profits of

Nov 2019
Feb 2020
May 2020


Just like the turn of OGSE fortunes like Carimin, dayang, penergy and Uzma by high Brent crude prices ...

Now the rise of Baltic dry index rates will be the turning point for Maybulk

Posted by sich > 2019-09-08 19:31 | Report Abuse

Can share what stock is it ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thanks Calvin for sharing this idea, even a broken clock can be right twice a day. I have just added to my portfolio a new non bursa stock.
08/09/2019 7:18 AM

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-08 19:53 | Report Abuse

‘Sizzling’ bulkers hit near nine-year high
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 07/09/2019

You wouldn’t know it from the performance of dry bulk stocks, but bulk shipping rates are on fire and reaching new heights well beyond levels seen in June and July when optimism toward the sector first flared.

On Sept. 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks rates of bulkers in multiple segments, hit 2,518 points, its highest level since November 2010, almost nine years ago. Shares in the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping exchange-traded fund (NYSE: BDRY), which purchases freight futures to mimic the BDI, are up 127% since April.

Gains are largely being driven by bulkers in the larger Capesize category (with capacities of 100,000 deadweight tons, DWT, or more) but also by Panamaxes (65,000-90,000 DWT). The Baltic Capesize Index rose to its highest level since June 2010 – in other words, its highest level since the global financial crisis.

“Dry bulk shipping markets continue to sizzle, with spot rates at near decade highs, while the time-charter market continues to push higher,” said Deutsche Bank transportation analyst Amit Mehrotra.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities, Capesize rates reached $37,500 per day on Sept. 4, up 21% week-on-week and up 46% month-on-month. Panamax rates were $19,900 per day, up 2% week-on-week and 32% month-on-month.

During the quarterly conference call with analysts held by Safe Bulkers on Sept. 4, executives pointed to much higher levels of Brazilian iron-ore exports to China driving Capesizes and strong grain exports to Asia out of the east coast of South America driving Panamaxes.

While stocks have been waylaid by investor fears over the U.S.-China trade war, these tensions offer several potential silver linings for dry bulk.

In the agricultural sector, the cessation of Chinese buying of U.S. exports has been largely considered a negative for shipping, but this is not necessarily the case.

To the extent U.S. exports are replaced by exports from Brazil and Argentina and do not decrease in overall volume, it is a positive for shipping demand. Panamaxes picking up cargoes in South America use the eastward Cape of Good Hope route to Asia, which is moderately longer than the westward route between the U.S. Gulf and Asia via the Panama Canal. Longer average distances are a positive for freight rates because longer voyages soak up more vessel capacity.

In the iron-ore sector that drives Capesize rates, a weaker economic outlook has historically spurred stimulus plans in China – plans that favor construction and consequently iron-ore imports for steel production.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities managing director of research Frode Mørkedal, “Looking at the ferocious dry bulk rally, with spot rates now at the highest [levels] since before the financial crisis, we ask ourselves if China already pushed the stimulus button.

“While there are several reasons for the recovery since June, such as increased Brazilian iron ore driving ton-miles higher and scrubber retrofits taking ships out of service, it is not just Capesizes performing, but Panamaxes and Supramaxes as well, indicating a possible broad-based demand recovery behind the strong rates. Several indicators like steel production and housing starts are supportive [of the Chinese stimulus theory]. It is reasonable to assume that a [Chinese] stimulus program would be good news for all shipping, in particular dry bulk,” noted Mørkedal.

The counterargument is that the recent spike in dry bulk rates is not sustainable. If so, it makes sense that Wall Street investors have shied away from buying the stocks.

Randy Giveans, shipping analyst at Jefferies, said that he expects second-half rates to be “much better” than first-half rates due to higher Brazilian exports and less fleet availability due to scrubber installations (the IMO 2020 rule effective Jan. 1 requires the use of ultra-low-sulfur fuel unless ships have exhaust-gas scrubbers installed). However, Giveans said that he does not “expect rates to remain at these [currently] elevated levels for the rest of the year.”

Ben Nolan, shipping analyst at Stifel, went further, opining that “most of that rate increase [in dry bulk rates] is due to scrubber installations reducing supply,” which he believes will be “ultimately transitory in nature.”
Source: Freight Waves

Posted by Nepo > 2019-09-09 20:16 | Report Abuse

So conclusion? Still buyable?

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-10 12:55 | Report Abuse

How long will scrubber installation take? 3 months??? 6 months? Does that means after 6 months the BDI will come crashing down??

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-10 13:12 | Report Abuse

Just saw BDI rate and it down again? Continuously down for 3 days????

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-10 13:28 | Report Abuse

Scrubber installation takes less than 2 weeks

See
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrIlTaUnC9w

But old bulk carriers won't install as prices are prohibitive at USD3 Millions to USD4 Millions (Rm12 millions to Rm16 millions

So more ships will be scrapped leaving smaller pool of players

And after installing scrubbers bulk ship carrier rates will go up to recoup cost and added profits

SO EVEN AFTER ALL SHIPS HAVE SCRUBBERS INSTALLED BY 1 JAN 2020 BDI INDEX EXPECTED TO GO UP

BDI INDEX ALREADY UP BY OVER 400% FROM 595 POINTS TO 2501 POINTS. SO A LITTLE RETRACEMENT AS LONG AS IT IS STILL ABOVE 2,000 POINTS

http://www.indexq.org/index/BDI.php

Posted by Titan > 2019-09-10 13:55 | Report Abuse

anyway, if BDI can stay above 2400, then maybulk quarterly eps can be between 2.5c to 3c. Because revenue will increase 3 fold but all overhead remains the same. SO Maybulk might worth 1.00 to 1.20. The question is can BDI stays above 2400 or not??? if only for 3 to 6 months and then come back down, then no point loh.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-10 14:25 | Report Abuse

Titanic

Check carefully

Maybulk Nov 2019 results will be for

July
August
September

Of 2019

Bdi index already surged past 2000 points to 2051 from 1000 points last year quarter

So July, August quarter already very good
September 10th today already 1/3 of Sept bdi still above 2400 points

With so many bulk ships waylaid due to high cost of retrofitting plus those that gone into the baptism of added costs of Rm12 millions to Rm14 millions

Imo2020 will be a game changer to higher prices for all

I don't see any imminent downtrend

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-10 14:27 | Report Abuse

In front ahead I SEE more demand for commodities

With swine fever in China wiped out so many pigs the Chinese are rebuilding hog population

So expect more soya beans import from Brazil and later Argentina

This will be good for Maybulk panamax and supramax

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-10 14:29 | Report Abuse

As trade war caused exports of finished goods to dwindle many countries will turn inward for growth stimulation

China will go into more internal infrar projects to pumprime it's economy

Posted by calvintaneng > 2019-09-10 14:30 | Report Abuse

For USA don't forget Trump promise of a USD1 Trillions infrar projects for rail, road, airports, Bridges and crumbling old ports

USD1 trillions equal to Rm4.15 Trillions
How much iron ore will be needed