Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-15 10:33 | Report Abuse

2016 is a disaster year for Mudajaya, one write off, one impairment n loss contributed from India power plants. Write off n impairment loss might be write back in future, India power plants loss mostly caused by depreciation which was paper loss but actual asset still there, it still able to generate electricity for 25years n make profit started in 2nd April 2017. The worst is over for Mudajaya, management try to clear all the bad things in 2016 so they can make sure 2017 is a profitable financial year tru the following ways :

1. claim to marcipex still in progress, there is possible of write back.

2. claim to insurance company still ongoing, there is possible of write back.

3. cash on hand increase from 6xx MIL to 3xxxmil.

4. This is the game changing point, after waiting for 10 years India power plants finally started selling power to UTTAR PRADESH at 5.088rs or rm0.34 per kwhr on 2nd April 2017.Many ppl claimed that India projects overran n become unprofitable, let me show you that is not true.

original plants cost = rm5.0bil
Actual cost = rm8. 4bil for 1440MW ( Vietnam 1200MW cost 8.2bil)
cost overran = (8.4-5)/5*100= 68%

Old tarrif = 2.7rs
revised tariff =5.088rs
revenue increase =(5.088-2.7)/2.7=88%

Old coal cost = us25
new coal cost = us30
coal cost increase =(30-25)/25*100=20%

so the most important thing is new tariff up 88%, India power plants actually contributed more profit margin because power plants is one off cost n the overran % less 20% compared with tarrif increase %. If compare coal cost and new tariff, profit margin increase 68%.

let me show the calculations as below :

latest annual report shows that rkm POWERGEN loss rm508mil in 2016 because of depreciation,
loan interest , labour cost, etc .

cea daily generation report dated 12th April 2017 show that 6.44MU sold to UTTAR PRADESH equal to rm2,189,600

Revenue per annum for 6.44MU daily Or 268.3MW per hour= 6.44*0.34*365=rm799.2mil

Coal cost = 4500ton*268.3*us30*rm4.4=rm159.4mil

Profit at 268.3MW level = 799.2mil-508mil-159.4mil=rm131.8mil

268.3MW is 34% higher than first 200MW agreed by UTTAR PRADESH, this show that Mudajaya can supply 34% more than 350MW once the new transmission testing done within days.

Anyway, I will calculate based on 350MW as per PPA signed last year :

Revenue per annum for 350MW = 350MW*24hrs*365days*rm0.34=rm1.042bil=1042mil

Coal cost = 4500ton*350MW*US30*rm4.4=207.9mil

profit per annum for 350MW = 1042-508-207.9=rm328.5mil

26% stake profit = rm85mil per annum contribute from India power plants

Now we can see that no more bleeding from India power plants, but huge profits is generated everyday from India power plants. When all 4 units starts operation, you can imagine how much profit Mudajaya can get from RKM POWERGEN.

here, I would like to thanks kyy because I learn the coal usage formula from him.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-15 10:41 | Report Abuse

Don't give up, huge reward and good day ahead, let's fight n HUAT together.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-15 10:50 | Report Abuse

beside india power plants, 49MW solar power plants in Perak , 10mw solar power plants in Pahang , 2X7MW Power plants in Indonesia, plenty of projects like Pan Borneo highway, mrt n lrt n 800mil Penang road will contribute positively to financial year 2017 onwards.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-15 11:02 | Report Abuse

Don't forget India President Mr. Modi want to let power supply to all houses by 2025 n this is benefiting RKM POWERGEN N MUDAJAYA.

Posted by lazycat > 2017-04-15 12:08 | Report Abuse

kyy 老懵懂 + 老猫烧须

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-15 13:58 | Report Abuse

Ehl1964 I knee down and pray you.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-15 13:59 | Report Abuse

Brothet Ehl1964 I knee down and pray you.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-15 14:00 | Report Abuse

Kawan Ehl1964 I knee down and pray you.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-15 14:02 | Report Abuse

1964.i knee down and pray you.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-15 14:03 | Report Abuse

I knee down and pray you Ehl1964

Posted by lazycat > 2017-04-15 14:04 | Report Abuse

kneel down and sack deak

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 00:58 | Report Abuse

horse mouth
---------------------
1 unit of 200mw will start supply this month @ inr 4.35 kwh not usd
2 unit of 150mw still pending approval take 2-3mths @ inr3.5 kwh not usd
3 & 4 expecting to be complete by end 2017 pending funding and ppa
Interest for 3 & 4 cost RM10 million per month
Still a lot outstanding issues in the company
cost overruns in mrt line
manjung power plant disputes

analyst said
--------------------
Indian ipp project cost 5 billion exceeded original budget

As per edge week 1158 (dd 17-23 April 2017)

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 01:13 | Report Abuse

I predict monday will hit below rm 1.00 because:-
the article read as " mudajaya Indian ipp commences sales but uncertainties remain"
forex loss due inr weak currency in region.
more impairment assets from Indian and Manila.
lower margin in current job due to high cost of steel and cement.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 01:15 | Report Abuse

MFB and Jaks got ppa signed before construction.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 09:24 | Report Abuse

Someone sell all his mudajya share n plan to buy back below 1.00 so make use of kyy to scare investor to sell cheap to him.

The data I used for my calculations all based on PPA n latest annual report not like kyy simply said tariff for Vietnam power plants is rm0. 50 ( actual is us0. 07=rm0.308) to lure investors to push up share price. Someone dare not to point out kyy mistake but gave fake data to scare ppl to sell cheap to him.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 09:34 | Report Abuse

what is the purpose kyy gave fake data if jaks so good?
what is the purpose heave123 give fake data? Why he stay here if he looks bad mudajya???

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 09:54 | Report Abuse

Mudajya cost rm8.4 BIL for 1440MW (latest annual report), jaks cost rm8.2bil for 1200MW. That means jaks project cost higher than Mudajaya at planning stage.
tariff for mudajya is inr5. 088(refer PPA) =rm0.348( latest exchange rate)
tariff for jaks is us0.07 = rm0.309
coal price for mudajya = us30
coal price for jaks = >us40
Mudajaya started selling power on 2nd April 2017
when jaks can sell power only God can decide.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:04 | Report Abuse

Those data given by Mudajaya MD Mr. James Wong to The edge. You can obtain the papers from any book store or newspapers stand at road side just cost @ RM 5.80.
First unit PPA in INR not USD. That very damaging remark.
This guy mentioned took them 12 years but still can't complete the ipp.
They have to review the true from cash rich company into full of debts.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:07 | Report Abuse

1 billion got now need to restructure debts.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:17 | Report Abuse

The fact now surface and public can access them self.
Nothing to do buy cheap, perhaps next two years still can't complete the remaining two units and hold by the gunpoint to sell cheap power rate to indian.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:21 | Report Abuse

We can't deny what Mr. James Wong try to be honour from this interview.
At least he come clean and be gentlemen.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:24 | Report Abuse

He putting the fact on table and future buy at your risk that what I be waiting for many years.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:27 | Report Abuse

Big headache for mudajaya how to service the debts many big holes.
Many delay projects with cost overruns .

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:32 | Report Abuse

Mission complete... 40523.
You are great guy but forgotten a lot of problems arise from ipp and project issues.
Forex exchange next hinder to the group profit.
Operation cost ipp next few also ada impact.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:36 | Report Abuse

If tomorrow can't hold @1.0 the next level is 80 sen this is bad to those who bought @ 1.20 and 1.1 0. This is worst situation and hope this will not happen.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 10:58 | Report Abuse

Today is great day.

Thank You 40523.

We both loss money here at peak of 4.0 - 5.00 for same reason of ipp before KYY.

History repeats again but this time Mr. James Wong come clean.

40523 we still can make money for other counters...God willings.

Buy good management stock i.e. maybank

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 11:41 | Report Abuse

remember that Jaks team up with big giant of Chinese with great cash flow and support of one belt nation xi ji peng unlike Indian partner depend to bank for support which 3&4 still waiting to be rescued by banks.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 11:43 | Report Abuse

Jaks will complete with shorter time with minimum cost overruns unlike mudajaya 5 billion. How to repay bank with those principles and interest.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 11:45 | Report Abuse

Dont matter what rate how to recruit those overruns cost and repay bank.

Posted by idiotbuster > 2017-04-16 11:51 | Report Abuse

heaven123 you are a damn idiot.want to hard sell jaks.
a bird in hand is much better than many bards on the tree lah.
There are so many risk factors in Jaks and not even Ang LH can
garantee everything will be on track without any hassle.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-04-16 11:59 | Report Abuse

Jaks got oldman's power..nothing to do with ipp etc...without rm180m it will b back to below rm1.00..

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-04-16 12:00 | Report Abuse

110% goreng stock

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 12:10 | Report Abuse

You also can blow and goreng mudajaya to 3.0. We all happy.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-04-16 12:11 | Report Abuse

I also happy if koon can goreng jaks to rm3...

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-16 12:15 | Report Abuse

Get you group to goreng, I can make some .

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-04-16 12:17 | Report Abuse

I no group...not 30 top shareholder..no rm500m margin facility..i tumpang oldman to make some money only..u think got so many rich fellow so free to stay in i3 everyday like oldman meh

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 12:30 | Report Abuse

I'm not sure the data you provide can believe or not because James Wong should report all details to Bursa first b4 he interviewed by edge weekly, sc will take action against him because of manipulation of stock.

Why James Wong not mentioned about RKM POWERGEN selling 268.3MW to UTTAR PRADESH on
12th April 2017???
Something very fishy behind this.

268.3MW means UTTAR PRADESH requested to deliver more electricity because they need the power badly. 34% huger than 200MW.

Even the tariff is revised down to 4.35Inr(not sure because not annouced to Bursa), mudajya still can get profit as calculate below:

4.35inr=us0.0675=rm0.297

revenue for 268.3MW= 268.3*24hr*365day*0.297=rm 698mil



let say tarrif data for next 150MW is Inr3. 5:

3.5Inr=rm0.24

coal usage = 150MW*4500ton*US30*RM4.41=RM89.3MIL

revenue for 150MW =150MW*24*365*0.24=rm315mil

TOTAL REVENUE for 268.3MW+150MW= 698+315=rm1013mil

Total coal usage=(268.3+150)4500*us30*rm4.4=rm249mil

Total expenses (included depreciation, interest, labour cost, etc as mentioned in latest annual report )=rm508mil

so profit for 268.3MW+150MW=1013-249-508=RM256MIL

26% stake = RM66. 56MIL

at least mudajya still can get rm66.56mil net profit from India every year.

Pls teach me if I make mistakes.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 12:39 | Report Abuse

Syndicates are geng up to press down the share price so they can cheat retailer to sell cheap. James Wong actions is abnormal n we should lodge complain to Bursa take actions against him because insiders n the edge workers already know the news before retailer.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 12:57 | Report Abuse

someone tried to scare retailers to create panic selling tomorrow so they can buy cheap.

Now India power plants already started selling power n generate profit n cash flow . Syndicates will use all dirty methods to scare retailers to sell cheap to them.

The worst is over for mudajya. Rm1. 05 is too cheap to ignore. Hold tight don't panic. Unit1n2 already can make profit more than rm66 per annum. If unit3n4 complete, total profit for 4 units will over rm100mil.

Don't forget India President Mr Modi want to supply power to all houses in India by 2025. Don't cheated by heartless syndicates, they want your shares to get rich.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 13:07 | Report Abuse

Actually now only unit1 running at 268.3MW already can make profit n I believe UTTAR PRADESH need more electricity n total deliver will excess 350MW for sure. Unit 1n2 can make even more profit if UTTAR PRADESH requested for more than 268.3MW+150MW because RKM still have balance capacity.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 13:37 | Report Abuse

Mudajya already made provision as much as Rm98mil for Manjung power plant dispute n claimed to Marcipex still ongoing. So current price already factored in the disputed.If Mudajya success claim back some portion then the amount will be write back as gain.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 14:28 | Report Abuse

don't forget rm508mil expenses including depreciation, that means actual cash flow for RKM POWERGEN is net profit plus depreciation amount , it would be more than rm450mil per year. This amount enough for funding unit3n4 .

According to the latest annual report, asset for RKM POWERGEN PLANTS is about rm7.5bil and total cost for 4 units is rm8.4bil, short of Rm900mil only, so internal funding should be no problem plus recently India government provide low interest loan to help power plants to complete their projects, this benefiting rkm POWERGEN a lot.

If rkm POWERGEN use the depreciation amount to pay the pricinpal loan, then interest charge to them will reduce every year.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 15:01 | Report Abuse

If interest reduce every year then the overall expenses (rm508mil in 2016) will reduce every year n profit keep increasing every year.
If this company is hopeless, Mr. Wee Teck Man not only sell 20k on 5th April n others substantial shareholders like dataran Sentral, Mulpha n Fairfax still holding without any move.
Be calm n be careful when you make decisions otherwise you will lose everything to the no good intentions groups.

Posted by Ehl1964 > 2017-04-16 15:22 | Report Abuse

Anyway buy or sell or hold on your own risk .Above informations for your reference to make better decisions only.

Posted by imokurok > 2017-04-16 16:56 | Report Abuse

Based on my TA reading looks like a potential buy?

Posted by Seong Zhi Lam > 2017-04-16 17:33 | Report Abuse

rkm powergen will benefit by recent indian policy, part of the loan amount will be take by indian government from bank, which mean loan interest rate will be reduced significantly.

Posted by firehawk > 2017-04-17 14:49 | Report Abuse

still drops ...

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-17 15:20 | Report Abuse

Next quarter results will be out next month.
Let see any impairment assets from Ipp and Manila.
Or surprises.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-17 15:23 | Report Abuse

Operation cost for both turbine 2 and 3 cost million per month already few months without taker.

Posted by heaven123 > 2017-04-17 15:23 | Report Abuse

This all are expenses my take into consideration.