This fall is just a temporary knee-jerk reaction. With Chinese steel companies barred from exporting steel and Malaysia's infrastructure projects to go on to drive economic growth, stock price will normalise before resuming uptrend.
I dont think CSC is involved in mining. CSC is Taiwanese company. The share of mother company is quite bullish. Hot rolled steel is more used in manufacturing (example, car body). Q1 2021 Malaysia TIV double digit growth y o y so steel demand should be high but I'm not sure if CSC benefit from direct order from local car maker. Its GI plate is also can be used to make structures for warehouse racking system. Warehousing should be booming thanks to the rapid growth of online business and trade. Therefore local demand should be robust.
Pardon lack of my knowledge in commodity stock. If China barred their companies from exporting their steel and to my knowledge they only import iron ore, wouldn't that mean the whole world has less steel source and hence higher price? we know china is the main producer of steel. I failed to comprehend why the sudden drop.
I think the sudden drop is more likely due to dented investors' mood when our government announced MCO 3.0 and there's a possibility to tighten the control. China is not barring their factories from exporting but imposing an export duty. Some of the economist in China believe this is a step to transfer the iron ore price hike pressure to the US as the US is the largest importer of steel. This will create inflation pressure to the US and increase the cost of Biden's plan to build infrastructure. This is because China does not have negotiation power on iron ore prices so the best thing China could do is to transfer that pressure to the US who has a greater political influence to Australia. Also China is trying to consolidate and merge the steel mills in China in order to gain a better price negotiation power for raw material. One of the strategic objective from this move is to increase the profit margin. Therefore, China is planning for a structural change in this industry. On the other hand, India being a steel exporter that owns 5% world market share back in 2019 is now suffering serious Covid pandemic which has a great impact to their steel factories. Many of the factory operation is negatively impacted as the oxygen needed for the furnace operation is diverted to support lives in hospitals. This will further creates the shortage of steel supply during this period and strengthen the commodity price. Expansion of steel mill capacity takes years so this loss of supply cannot be replenish quickly by mills in other countries except China. Unless China lifted the export duty, I don't expect steel price to be drastically softened in near future.
China is not likely to change the policy as they have words from their president Xi Jin Ping to curb capacity to reduce CO2 emission. U turn is not likely to happen in that country in a short term.
That means less supply & higher carbon & export tax on steel by china, thus the higher price of steel can be sustained mah!
Posted by Sardin > May 18, 2021 12:12 PM | Report Abuse
China is not likely to change the policy as they have words from their president Xi Jin Ping to curb capacity to reduce CO2 emission. U turn is not likely to happen in that country in a short term.
The present high price of steel are due to China (world biggest producer} curtailment of export & production of steel & this is beside high iron ore prices and high standard of environment protection impose by china govt.
Consequently msia downstream producers sit on inventory gains plus ability to pass the cost increase to consumers due to less competition from china mah!
Posted by Sslee > May 18, 2021 12:18 PM | Report Abuse
If you are in the downstream and your raw material price keep increasing do you think you can pass down the increase price to your customers?
Hi Stockraider, it will be depending on the commercial agreement between the supplier and customer. In recent CSCStel report it did mention they benefit from the steel price hike because they could export at higher prices.
After reading the report more carefully, most of the CSC product are for local market. However, I am expecting next quarter EPS should be a lot better than the last quarter. It doesn't surprise if the EPS double q-o-q. Look at Choo Bee's latest quarter report.
Date of change 31 Dec 2020 Name MR CHEN, CHIEN-TU Age 48 Gender Male Nationality Taiwan, Province of China Designation Executive Director Directorate Executive
Type of change Resignation
Reason Mr. Chen, Chien-Tu had tendered his resignation as Director of the Company with effect from 31 December 2020 as he has been assigned to take up a new role within China Steel Corporation Group. Details of any disagreement that he/she has with the Board of Directors No
TRANSACTIONS (CHAPTER 10 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS) : RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS Disposal of 20% equity interest in Hanwa Steel Centre (M) Sdn. Bhd. CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD
THE STRATEGY IS TO REFOCUS ON THE CORE COMPETENCE OF CSC MAH!
EMPTY LAND NOT USE IN PENANG IS NOT PRODUCTIVE & A WASTE MAH!
SO DISPOSE LOH!
Posted by Mikecyc > May 23, 2021 11:45 AM | Report Abuse
HAHa why a cash rich n no debt company is selling its property land for RM 43.5 million in current market sentiments ...company cash n balances got more than RM 300 million .. no enough for working capital ke ..
Posted by Mikecyc > May 23, 2021 11:46 AM | Report Abuse
Group managing director Yin Shou-Kang said in the company’s 2020 annual report that CSC Steel will continue to strengthen its competitiveness amid the uncertainties that the Malaysian steel industry is facing following the Covid-19 outbreak and trade wars in 2020.
PETALING JAYA: CSC Steel Holdings Bhdhas unlocked some value through the disposal of two parcels of industrial land in Perai, Penang, for RM43.5mil cash and intends to use the proceeds for working capital.
Very simple mah....by selling the empty land...Csc have more cash by rm 42m mah!
That means its balance sheet already strengthen by Rm 42m...whether steel price up or down mah!
Posted by Mikecyc > May 23, 2021 12:25 PM | Report Abuse
re steel prices going up in 2021? Will steel prices go down in 2021? Steel prices are extreme and should decline from late second quarter through the end of 2021. Locking now will mean over-paying over the second half of the year.
Thanks to the rare convergence of these 2 important catalyst factors of this particular stock,
the clock is ticking down for you.
ALCOM GROUP BERHAD / 2674 has these 2 important catalyst factors, namely
ALCOM manufacture, supply :
Aluminium interrelated products Aluminium commodity price is USD 2,156.25 per metric ton as at 21 Feb 2021 Aluminium commodity price is USD 2,305.00 per metric ton as at 24 May 2021 Historical high price now, as per May 2021 period , comparing to April 2020 ,then was USD 1,460.00 per metric ton
Recent good announcement by Alcom / 2674 on 23 Feb 2021 On the financial quarter with revenue RM 109,633,000.00 Record profit -for this financial quarter RM 10,074,000.00 *** EPS : 7.50 *** = record
Recent good announcement by Alcom / 2674 on 25 May 2021 On the financial quarter with record revenue for this quarter RM 139,828,000.00 *** Consistent profit -for this financial quarter RM 7,398,000.00 EPS : 5.51 *** = record
Amazing Earning per financial quarter = 7.50 + 5.51 + 5.51 + 5.51 = 24.03 cents, on the assumptions same for the coming quarters =24.03 Annualised per year 24.03 cents x 10 PER (price earning ratio ) Intrinsic value RM 2.40 less 30 % discount, Final mid term target price RM 1.68
surge to limit up For Alcom / 2674 --- 27 May 2021 / Thursday = RM 1.19 ( RM 0.30 )
Another metal stock similar in the making like Choo Bee Metal Industries Bhd., /5797 as per recent good financial announcement 21 May 2021 --
surge to limit up Choo Bee / 5797 on 21 May 2021 = RM 1.64 (closed) Choo Bee /5797 on 24 May 2021 = RM 2.13 ( closed - limit up +30 % = + RM 0.49 )
Steel counters especially Choo Bee, Ann Joo will provide uptrend momentum for steel, aluminum sectors, Plus Alcom /2674 will also help in aluminum sector for positive price uptrend.
My estimation is based on average iron ore, coal, limestone in Apr & May. I'm taking HRC selling price for reference because I don't have CRC reference price. CRC price should be higher than HRC so I think my estimation is conservative. Assumption is based on 128,933 metric tonne output / sales in Q2.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Sardin
838 posts
Posted by Sardin > 2021-05-17 09:40 | Report Abuse
http://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/Hotrolledcoils/