Posted by ejsaham > 2015-01-14 13:09 | Report Abuse

JCY look strong...but careful guy its time to take your profit..anytime can drop...correction is good for long journey...i will see you guys back at 64 or 62

Posted by musashi69 > 2015-01-14 13:43 | Report Abuse

correction doesnt mean it will drop back to 64 or 62...it can also go sideways 70+ cents region....(if there is any pause)

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-14 18:31 | Report Abuse

Pinewood, you are back. So how much you think jcy can go before cny.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-14 18:40 | Report Abuse

Many have bought during 0.70, if can break i think can further go to near rm1

Posted by xiaoji > 2015-01-14 18:43 | Report Abuse

for tech stock, PE should be below 10 coz we didn;t know after 10 years this company still exist...

Posted by NewCaster > 2015-01-14 19:01 | Report Abuse

paperplane.. i assume, if many ppl bought during 0.7 which mean that 0.7 is resistance point because they will sell at 0.7++. Psychologically, when people get stuck at certain level, the longer period, the more they feel anxiety on the situation, so , once reach 0.7, they will definitely sell to secure their capital. lol.

Posted by musashi69 > 2015-01-14 19:13 | Report Abuse

PE only for fundamentalist....for people with technical analysis background..they dont care about PE..as long trending is there, no worries

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-01-14 19:30 | Report Abuse

We saw twice resistance turn into support. There is something there. I think the weak ringgit has contributed positively well for JCY

Posted by fourier > 2015-01-14 22:08 | Report Abuse

Weak ringgit will not be forever. Future prospect need more visibility to get the value go higher.

Posted by bankertan > 2015-01-15 07:40 | Report Abuse

CHINA January 12 2015 1:35 PM

SHANGHAI (SMM): Spot aluminium in China could crash through 12,000 yuan ($1,957) per ton in Q1 2015, pressured by worsening supply glut and potential fall in alumina prices, Shanghai Metals Market foresees.

China’s monthly aluminum output is expected to continue rising in Q1. Aluminum consumption, however, might weaken further as processors begin to close heading into the Chinese New Year. Both factors will cause aluminum stocks to mount.

SMM spot aluminum price slumped to 12,730 yuan per ton January 8. This has left 42% or 12.71 million tons of China’s aluminum capacities in losses in cash costs.

Posted by bankertan > 2015-01-15 07:43 | Report Abuse

http://www.scrapregister.com/news/6316/chinese-spot-aluminium-prices-may-drop-in-q1-2015

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2015-01-15 09:51 | Report Abuse

Q1 (ending 31 Dec) is the strongest. 13Q1 GP 49M - FX 8.6M - Admin 10M etc = around 30M. 14Q1 results coming out next month will be a lot better!! Assume the same GP + FX gain 20M - Admin etc, will be at least 60M. (double!) Management hinted they do a lot better and GP could be a lot higher.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-15 10:17 | Report Abuse

All written here just your imagination. Pls be rational. I think rm1 reasonable.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-01-15 10:31 | Report Abuse

break 0.70 first, cannot break all talking cock.

Posted by bankertan > 2015-01-15 10:53 | Report Abuse

Cock can talk meh? I never seen before.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-01-15 11:18 | Report Abuse

I agree with Johnnys. Get through 0.70 first. Once through, all who got caught already cashed out, then even cock can fly

Posted by musashi69 > 2015-01-15 12:41 | Report Abuse

Not to worry... check MFI & CMF indicators..already in positive..meaning smart money already on the attack .0.70 will be gone sooner or later..unless global sentiment will pull it down.

Posted by sense maker > 2015-01-15 13:22 | Report Abuse

JCY's appeal lies in its free cash flow as its annual depreciation is large (close to net profit), making EPS relevant mainly for estimate of dividend potential per share.

In FYE 2014, its FCF was RM180m (=220m from operation - roughly estimated required capex of 40m a year - roughly estimated annual income tax of 15m). It has income tax exemption in certain subsidiaries and some remaining tax losses to utilize against future taxable profits given its high capital allowance from capex investment. So, I think 15m is a rather fair annual estimate in next few years.

For prudence's sake, we use 2.067b enlarged share base (including all dilutive ESOS). This will translate into 8 sen FCF per share. At 68.5sen, this will translate into 8.6 FCF multiple.

HDD (mechanical parts) industry consolidation has taken place 1 year back and it is unclear how much JCF may be able to improve it FCF in FYE 2015. If it improves by say 15% (aided by USD strength), FCF per share will improve to 9.2sen per share.

For a company that produces the bulk of all HDD (mechanical parts) in the world, I think a FCF multiple of 10 is inexpensive. This then translates into a fair value of 92sen per share.

Other favourable factors are its big net cash position which is set to increase every year given the strong FCF (provided capex and acquisition of potential biz is well managed and not overly done). This then makes it possible to declare most or all its current earnings as dividend. I think it is reasonable to expect a dividend of 5sen a share in FYE 2015, which is 7.2% dividend yield at current price- very high.

All the best.

Posted by musashi69 > 2015-01-15 14:32 | Report Abuse

thanx sense maker...which research hse's note is this?

Posted by sense maker > 2015-01-15 14:34 | Report Abuse

It is written by me lah. Good luck.

Posted by musashi69 > 2015-01-15 14:39 | Report Abuse

salute sense maker..very nice presentation

Posted by sense maker > 2015-01-15 18:39 | Report Abuse

Typo error is corrected from 180m to 165m of maintainable yearly FCF:

JCY's appeal lies in its free cash flow as its annual depreciation is large (close to net profit), making EPS relevant mainly for estimate of dividend potential per share.

In FYE 2014, its FCF was RM165m (=220m from operation - roughly estimated required capex of 40m a year - roughly estimated annual income tax of 15m). It has income tax exemption in certain subsidiaries and some remaining tax losses to utilize against future taxable profits given its high capital allowance from capex investment. So, I think 15m is a rather fair annual estimate in next few years.

For prudence's sake, we use 2.067b enlarged share base (including all dilutive ESOS). This will translate into 8 sen FCF per share. At 68.5sen, this will translate into 8.6 FCF multiple.

HDD (mechanical parts) industry consolidation has taken place 1 year back and it is unclear how much JCF may be able to improve it FCF in FYE 2015. If it improves by say 15% (aided by USD strength), FCF per share will improve to 9.2sen per share.

For a company that produces the bulk of all HDD (mechanical parts) in the world, I think a FCF multiple of 10 is inexpensive. This then translates into a fair value of 92sen per share.

Other favourable factors are its big net cash position which is set to increase every year given the strong FCF (provided capex and acquisition of potential biz is well managed and not overly done). This then makes it possible to declare most or all its current earnings as dividend. I think it is reasonable to expect a dividend of 5sen a share in FYE 2015, which is 7.2% dividend yield at current price- very high.

All the best.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-15 18:56 | Report Abuse

Sense maker, you also notice this great fcf? Other stocks i notice also from otb pick.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-01-15 19:50 | Report Abuse

what is FCF?

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2015-01-15 20:21 | Report Abuse

Sense maker, great analysis! 92 cents is a conservative estimate, you also notice there are other favourable factors which could push it up further. (There are at least three, based on what i have read in previous discussions) Even if it flies, many people may choose to hold because there are just too few safe choices around this time.
Johnnys, free cashflow.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2015-01-15 20:23 | Report Abuse

JCF should be JCY, right?

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-01-15 21:02 | Report Abuse

any one here start buying loosing $$ company Notion?

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-01-16 08:55 | Report Abuse

Nope. Between Notion and JCY, I prefer to stick my money where I can get some dividend

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-01-16 08:58 | Report Abuse

Interesting how in Notion chat, people are still harping about SSD while in this JCY chat, no one has mentioned SSD. I guess people in this chat is more knowledgeable and understands that HDD is still the lowest cost of data storage and is here to stay

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-01-16 08:59 | Report Abuse

Fund managers in US knows also which is why both WD and Seagate shares never stopped climbing

Posted by cutie > 2015-01-16 10:55 | Report Abuse

Is notion worth buying? All counters dealing with HDD went up so much except this Notion. Thailand flood is ok now .

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-01-16 17:53 | Report Abuse

I think JCY use theedge news to push over 0.70,
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/stocks-momentum-jcy-international

Posted by slampdung > 2015-01-16 19:43 | Report Abuse

Unfortunately they failed today. Next week ?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-17 08:09 | Report Abuse

They dun need anyone help you see. They hold more than 76% now. Even ask bursa exclusion for low % 8n piblic spread. It means price will be volatile. But also meant price easy u and down. You see it can go down near 0.50, also mean it can go as high as rm1. As only few ppl holding. So take median is 0.75. Thts why if normal time it stay near 0.70. Now fav usd, myr environment can go up to rm1.

Posted by slampdung > 2015-01-17 10:10 | Report Abuse

So that means the public control the price which depends on the sentiment. There is no point for them to pump up the price unless they received take over bid.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-18 17:09 | Report Abuse

You are true also. Unless big holders have some plan , if not it can hardly move up until they give out some holding to pulic

Posted by NewCaster > 2015-01-19 00:31 | Report Abuse

By calculating the dividend, is it current price got 7-6% annual if refer to 2014 annual div paid out consistently in 2015.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-19 08:03 | Report Abuse

Yup. If can continue current div payment, it will attract more 8investors with its defensive biz.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-19 10:07 | Report Abuse

Think will break 0.70 today

Posted by fourier > 2015-01-19 12:17 | Report Abuse

Ppl are cashing out after reading friday news?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-19 13:21 | Report Abuse

What news.

Posted by ignasio > 2015-01-19 16:33 | Report Abuse

hold?

Posted by Ejsaham > 2015-01-19 17:11 | Report Abuse

im waiting at 62....

Posted by musashi69 > 2015-01-19 21:11 | Report Abuse

On JCY chart/tech analysis - near resistance , doji , overbought..
of course chartist will bail out.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-20 07:52 | Report Abuse

ased on the Record of Depositors as at 15 October 2014, the Company's public shareholding spread as at 15 October 2014 is 24.32% and hence, the Company's Public Shareholding Spread has reduced from its Approved PSS of 24.97%.

Posted by slampdung > 2015-01-20 16:16 | Report Abuse

What does it mean then?

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2015-01-21 09:03 | Report Abuse

USD:MYR crossed 3.62 already, more troubles for the economy. Export your way out of the problem, that's probably what the government should do also.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-21 11:42 | Report Abuse

AGREE! BUY EXPORTS

Posted by paperplane > 2015-01-21 15:12 | Report Abuse

hehe, next month quarter result damn good, so? Panic buying soon. Heard bonus issue coming loh to address the low public spread issue

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-01-21 20:24 | Report Abuse

bonus issue will only let big share holder become bigger, how to solve the low pb spread issue?