Posted by Mentor > 2015-02-25 16:52 | Report Abuse

A gain is a gain. U gonna miss the train if u hesitate further!

Posted by bankertan > 2015-02-25 19:26 | Report Abuse

Lohman - 3.2702 on 1/10/14, 3.3085 on 1/11/14, 3.4325 on 1/12/14 and 3.4977 on 31/12/14 = 3.37 average rate over 3 months and still trending up (weakening against USD) and currently 3.65. Whats the point you are trying to make? The appreciating USD and subsequent
forex gains are a bad thing for the company? Sounds like you are worried that you sold off too early. from reading through your previous posts, you have been caught with pants down before. You better be smarter this time and buy in again after the next result is announced when the share price is rm1+.

Posted by smartalex > 2015-02-25 21:15 | Report Abuse

I am forecasting a Q2 profit of RM60mil. This is how I arrive at that figure.
I am assuming the top line to increase by 5% , ie RM512mil. or USD150mil, if the rate for this
period is RM3.4 to USD1. If two thirds of the billing are in USD, the total billing in USD will
be USD100mil. If the forex gain per USD is 20sen, the gain will be RM20mil. This together
with a profit of RM40mil give the RM60mil. The dividend will be 1.25 or 1.5 sen.

Posted by Mentor > 2015-02-26 09:35 | Report Abuse

There will be road shows by JCY to spread their good result n more big fishes are expecting to take the bite. Stay tight!

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-02-26 10:39 | Report Abuse

Lots of positive sentiments but remember who has the biggest share and what was IPO price... When JCY made so much money during the flood, the price could not even exceed IPO price. Key point here. The biggest shark is the owner that owns 76% share of JCY. He is keen to keen to sell high and buy low. Careful guys....

Posted by bankertan > 2015-02-26 18:51 | Report Abuse

During the flood there were more then 8 call warrants against JCY with all the exercise prices well below the IPO price. There are currently no CW on JCY. The owner is bound by the Bursa listing requirements and if he buys/sells he must disclose this to bursa/public. If his holdings exceed or fall below the allowable share holding spread (75/25) bursa will issue him with a notice. This has never happened since JCY was listed 5 years ago.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-02-27 21:56 | Report Abuse

In JCY website, there were some press release clarifying about the spread. A few times they were above the 75%.

Posted by bankertan > 2015-02-28 15:53 | Report Abuse

Thats got nothing to do with the owners 75%. Its about the 25% public shareholding spread which may be slightly affected from time to time due to a number of reasons, eg company share buy backs which it has done previously etc. If YKK acquires or disposes any of his shares he must disclose this to bursa/public. Do you see any announcements over the last 5 years which advised YKK has sold any of his shares (75%). if so paste the link here.

Posted by bankertan > 2015-02-28 18:36 | Report Abuse

Positives
favorable forex in long term (USD/Ringitt), steady increase in sales, monopilization of the industry due to consilidation (now in a strategic position to be taken over by WD or seagate as they already supply more then 80% of components for both companies), stable earnings growth compared to the past, proven consistent dividend payer (attractive to funds), strong Q1 earnings with 3Q of earnings left for the year.

Risks
Sudden breakthrough in SSD technology to allow SSD price to match HDD (unlikely in the near term as significant $ is required to further develop SSD to make it cheaper). Sudden reversal of earnings into losses again (unlikely given the above positives). No more upside on the share price as the current price already factors in earnings for the next 3 Quarters (unlikely). Share price already had a run up from .50 to now 74 in the last 6 months and no more steam left? (unlikely as the price was originally about what it was now (.74) before it was sold down heavily to .50 due to factory fire and global october sell down (ebola etc). the price has simply recovered to what it was prior to these 2 events in september/october).

Based on the above, what is the risk of the current share price dropping? Unlikely. The potential for more upside on the price is high given the positives (while paying dividend at the same time). Risks are low and probablity of reward is high at current share price.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-02-28 19:27 | Report Abuse

Bankertan: thks for your inputs. A question: why is it to be taken by WD or seagate?

Posted by bankertan > 2015-02-28 22:24 | Report Abuse

Jcy is now the largest hdd component maker in the world with WD and Seagate getting 80% of their hdd components from Jcy. If Jcy were to suddenly disappear, both WD and seagate will be in trouble. You only have to look back at the floods to see how much hdd prices went up because of hdd component shortage. There are now few competitors left that have the size and scale to produce the quantities that WD and seagstr require and barriers to entry for new players are to high if you do not have economies of scale. Seagate and WD monopolise hdd, Jcy have monopolize hdd components. From a strategic point of view, Jcy is becoming very valuable for both seagate and WD and therefore it's only a question of time before it is bought out by either party to mitigate any risks to the supply of hdd components. The market cap for WD and segate means buying Jcy is like spending loose change. Medium term share price gain is great but it iis only a question of time before a bidding war takes place between seagate and WD to takeover Jcy.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-02-28 22:32 | Report Abuse

Thks for the explaination.

Posted by MillionaireHub > 2015-03-02 03:44 | Report Abuse

JCY and UNISEM both were standing at RM2 few years back , then when during loss making seasons, both drop back to leesser than RM 1 region, now UNISEM has been bouncing back to RM 2 level, while JCY still lagging behind with PE of 10.
What to wait bro ?
whack ma...

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-02 07:19 | Report Abuse

Already whacked.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-02 08:48 | Report Abuse

Most shrs in big holders hand, hard to move it............

Posted by camel > 2015-03-02 16:26 | Report Abuse

no reasons to dip.

Posted by camel > 2015-03-04 11:15 | Report Abuse

wait for east wind.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-05 21:25 | Report Abuse

who will attend the meeting?

Posted by thumxj > 2015-03-05 22:16 | Report Abuse

Hi bankertan, where could I find the information about "Jcy is now the largest hdd component maker in the world with WD and Seagate getting 80% of their hdd components from Jcy"?

Posted by bankertan > 2015-03-06 08:17 | Report Abuse

Supplier to big players such as WD and Seagate. JCY has maintained a good relationship with Western Digital (WD) since 1994 and Seagate since 2006. It has supplied WD with all its major components such as base plate, actuator arm, top cover and antidisc and it has also supplied Seagate with base plate since 2006 and antidisc since 2008. WD and Seagate are the world’s current top two players after the acquisition of Samsung by Seagate and Hitachi GST by WD. Both of them hold 85% of the HDD market share in terms of unit shipment in 1QCY12 from just 62% in 3QCY11 before the acquisitions. These big HDD OEMs nowadays rely on only two or three key suppliers and one or two secondary sources and this benefitted JCY since it is one of the key suppliers to these players.

http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2012/09/27/1477294014--1047081320.pdf

Posted by bankertan > 2015-03-06 08:23 | Report Abuse

"That would benefit the company as more than 80% of its total revenue is from WD and Seagate".

"Our company also has a strategic ‘two-way’ relationship with WD and Seagate. There are high barriers to enter to the HDD mechanical components manufacturing industry which puts us in a strategic position,” said Wong."

http://www.thestar.com.my/Story/?file=%2F2010%2F2%2F6%2Fbusiness%2F5618342

"Being one of the largest global hard disk component manufacturers, JCY benefits from the economies of scale."
http://www2.nst.com.my/business/bizbrief/jcy-back-in-the-black-with-q1-earnings-of-rm30m-1.489209

Posted by michaelwong > 2015-03-06 12:39 | Report Abuse

bankertan , thanks for your informations , do you have any idea with regards to the price target ? Thnks !

Posted by thumxj > 2015-03-07 00:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks for clarifying, I see what you mean here. I think JCY only has 25-30% of world market share for the HDD components they supply.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-09 09:54 | Report Abuse

Now myr3.65. This is really beneficial to jcy

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-09 13:07 | Report Abuse

Notable:

1) Aided by strong USD and continued shift away from PC segment to other new better-margin product classes, JCY reported a healthy net profit margin of 10.4% in the latest quarter.

2) Foreign exchange gain arose mainly from sales, purchase and maybe a bit on financing and so may be lumped together with working capital movement in terms of realization into cash, and working capital movement is temporary in nature and neutral to free cash flow over long run. This then gives a free cash flow of RM69m in the latest quarter.

3) Using a theoretical fully-expanded share base after ESOS, this means a RM1.48b market capitalization for JCY at current market price of RM0.72. As USD strengthened further and the HDD market is expected to expand moderately in coming years, maintainable FCF may be extrapolated at RM276m a year (=RM69*4 quarters). As a result, FCF multiple is a mere 5.4 times.

4) Market is currently pricing JCY on the assumption of unsustainability, which is highly unjustified. A more reasonable and still-cheap FCF multiple of 8 is more appropriate and this gives a fair value of RM1.07 a share for JCY.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-10 12:50 | Report Abuse

How is market for Cloud? look like is no popular yet

Posted by bankertan > 2015-03-11 06:19 | Report Abuse

Ringgit now 3.72 against usd and heading for 3.80+ as fed will likely increase interest rate in June. Big profit coming for jcy.


Dollar Rises to 12-Year High Amid European Bond-Buying, Fed Bets
by Lananh Nguyen
10:59 AM AEDT March 10, 2015

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar surged to the strongest level in almost 12 years as the specter of higher U.S. interest rates and the European Central Bank’s acceleration of its bond-buying program cascaded through global financial markets.
The U.S. currency rallied against 14 of its 16 major peers as national central banks in the euro region were said to have purchased sovereign debt for a second day in their quantitative-easing program. The dollar touched the highest in 7 1/2 years versus the yen and rose to a record against the Mexican peso.
“You could see another round of dollar strengthening on the back of people again realizing that a Fed rate hike could be imminent,” Thierry Albert Wizman, currencies strategist at Macquarie Capital USA Inc. in New York. “U.S. rates are going up, the U.S. economy is good and the rest of the world is not in as good shape.”

The Fed stands out among major central banks in accepting a higher exchange rate as a sign of economic strength. Peers from Tokyo to Frankfurt, Zurich and Sydney are cutting rates and buying government bonds to stimulate growth and, in the process, sometimes weakening their currencies.
The dollar appreciated 1.4 percent to $1.0698 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York and reached $1.0693, the strongest since April 2003. It touched 122.03 yen, a level unseen since July 2007, before trading little changed at 121.13 yen.
The greenback climbed to parity with Switzerland’s franc for the first time since the Swiss National Bank removed a currency cap against the euro in January.
Rate Speculation
Options traders see a 56 percent chance the Fed will raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2006 by September, up from 48 percent odds at the end of February.
The ECB and euro-region central banks began their 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.2 trillion), 19-month QE program on Monday.
U.S. Treasuries rose for a second day Tuesday as investors sought higher yields than they can get in Europe amid the bond-buying. Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 2.13 percent, while 10-year German bunds yielded a record-low 0.23 percent.
“The U.S. dollar is likely to continue grinding higher against other majors” if the Fed increases borrowing costs while other central banks ease, Sireen Harajli, a strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in New York, said in a note.
The U.S. central bank meets March 17-18. Chair Janet Yellen told Congress last month that the Fed’s pledge to be “patient” on starting to raise borrowing costs means an increase is unlikely for “at least the next couple” of meetings. She signaled that dropping the vow would mean rates could be raised at any meeting.
‘More Hawkish’
“The market has become a little more hawkish in terms of what to expect” on the pledge at the March meeting, said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank International in London.
Prospects of higher interest rates have helped the U.S. currency outperform most global peers in 2015 as central banks in Europe and Japan embrace stimulus to stoke growth. The dollar has rallied 6.9 percent this year, making it the top performer among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The yen has gained 5.6 percent, while the euro dropped 6.9 percent, the group’s worst performer.
The Russian ruble led declines among emerging markets on Tuesday, sliding 3.4 percent against the greenback.
Peso Slides
Mexico’s peso weakened on speculation U.S. interest-rate increases will diminish the appeal of higher-yielding emerging-market assets as the drop in oil prices dims the outlook for foreign investment.
The peso depreciated as much as 1.1 percent to 15.6468 per dollar, past the record set in March 2009 when a global recession throttled export demand, before closing at 15.6240, down 1 percent.
“It’s a stronger-U.S.-dollar story,” Peter Dragicevich, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in London, said by phone. “The general theme of the stronger dollar and markets positioning and looking to the Fed to raise rates later this year continues to come through.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Lananh Nguyen in New York at lnguyen35@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net Greg Storey, Kenneth.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/dollar-gains-as-fed-s-fisher-warns-against-delaying-rate-rise

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-12 09:43 | Report Abuse

I watch Bloomberg yesterday, all IT companies in US now expanding their Cloud as now USD stregthened!!!

BULLISH for JCY!!

Posted by Mentor > 2015-03-12 16:05 | Report Abuse

Just a reminder that tmr is ex div date

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-13 22:31 | Report Abuse

Director keepon buying

Posted by ignasio > 2015-03-16 09:48 | Report Abuse

good day :)

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-16 11:11 | Report Abuse

Soon to test 0.8 again, then rm1

Posted by Mentor > 2015-03-16 12:09 | Report Abuse

Don't bother to sell below 75cts cos the directors have just bought at 74 cts.

Posted by 3stan > 2015-03-16 14:48 | Report Abuse

...watch the price closely for breakout soon...

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-17 12:17 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1901985

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-17 12:17 | Report Abuse

Acquired 12/03/2015 500,000 0.740

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-18 07:53 | Report Abuse

be careful. the same directors also took out the Executive Share Options (ESOS) to buy 1 million shares at .61 the day before. This means their average price is about .65.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1900613
If add the dividend in as well, their cost price is actually about .64

Also Intel have lower profit guidance on lower then expected PC and tablet sales so expect JCY profit to fall in coming quarters. High risk counter.

http://www.oregonbusiness.com/must-reads/14773-intel-downgrades-q1-expectations-by-1b

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 08:08 | Report Abuse

Intel? It has nothing to do with ps4, cloud computing. Now US expanding their cloud loke crazy. Every big corporation doing it now due to str9nger USD which in turn is lower cost now!

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-18 08:33 | Report Abuse

Do some home work please and learn the relationship between Intel/PC and HDD. What happens when consumers, business and enterprise move all their data to the cloud??

THIS:

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/2363694/idc-hard-drive-market-is-shrinking-due-to-cloud-shift

How many data centres do you think there are in total around the world? Do you think there is a data centre in every home and business? The growth in cloud means you and I and the businesses around the world no longer have to buy HDD.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-18 08:54 | Report Abuse

Good discussion. Please go on.

Me: directors exercise esos and having low holding cost have nothing to do with the biz earning which is the main determinating factors on share price. Furthermore I do not think directors are interested in this kind of penny gain

Me: Intel's biz is very relevant to HDD and JCY. Whereas cloud computing can kill biz of JCY.

Me: JCY's price relies on good earning from core biz and weak RM. I expect better or at least sustainable earning in the upcoming qtr and div will be declared again. Its valuation is much cheaper than other semi con and export oriented counters. All these are attractive factors pulling me in.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 09:10 | Report Abuse

THe logic totally flaw!

Cloud is using HDD, and it is only beneficial to JCY as it almost monopoly in certain components.

It is just replacing individual or corp HDD with Cloud HDD control by service provders.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 09:11 | Report Abuse

Also, China open now for Xbox, PS4!!

HDD is needed for all these!!

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-18 09:13 | Report Abuse

where can get the news for china reopen Xbox and PS4?

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-18 09:36 | Report Abuse

Hi Paper: do u know how many current conventional HDD=One cloud HDD? Honestly I do not know the answer but I guess one cloud HDD can do the job of many conventional HDD. If my "guess" is correct, cloud HDD is a thread to JCY as its volume will reduce significantly then. What do u think?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 10:08 | Report Abuse

What? Let's go study how Cloud work ok??

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 10:13 | Report Abuse

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing

Cloud computing[3] relies on sharing of resources to achieve coherence and economies of scale, similar to a utility (like the electricity grid) over a network.[2] At the foundation of cloud computing is the broader concept of converged infrastructure and shared services.

Cloud computing, or in simpler shorthand just "the cloud", also focuses on maximizing the effectiveness of the shared resources. Cloud resources are usually not only shared by multiple users but are also dynamically reallocated per demand. This can work for allocating resources to users. For example, a cloud computer facility that serves European users during European business hours with a specific application (e.g., email) may reallocate the same resources to serve North American users during North America's business hours with a different application (e.g., a web server). This approach should maximize the use of computing power thus reducing environmental damage as well since less power, air conditioning, rack space, etc. are required for a variety of functions. With cloud computing, multiple users can access a single server to retrieve and update their data without purchasing licenses for different applications.

The term "moving to cloud" also refers to an organization moving away from a traditional CAPEX model (buy the dedicated hardware and depreciate it over a period of time) to the OPEX model (use a shared cloud infrastructure and pay as one uses it).

Proponents claim that cloud computing allows companies to avoid upfront infrastructure costs, and focus on projects that differentiate their businesses instead of on infrastructure.[4] Proponents also claim that cloud computing allows enterprises to get their applications up and running faster, with improved manageability and less maintenance, and enables IT to more rapidly adjust resources to meet fluctuating and unpredictable business demand.[4][5][6] Cloud providers typically use a "pay as you go" model. This can lead to unexpectedly high charges if administrators do not adapt to the cloud pricing model.[7]

The present availability of high-capacity networks, low-cost computers and storage devices as well as the widespread adoption of hardware virtualization, service-oriented architecture, and autonomic and utility computing have led to a growth in cloud computing.[8][9][10]

Cloud vendors are experiencing growth rates of 50% per annum

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 10:14 | Report Abuse

Cloud vendors are experiencing growth rates of 50% per annum

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 10:17 | Report Abuse

Cloud computing: a better way
With cloud computing, you eliminate those headaches because you’re not managing hardware and software—that’s the responsibility of an experienced vendor like salesforce.com. The shared infrastructure means it works like a utility: You only pay for what you need, upgrades are automatic, and scaling up or down is easy.

Cloud-based apps can be up and running in days or weeks, and they cost less. With a cloud app, you just open a browser, log in, customize the app, and start using it.

Businesses are running all kinds of apps in the cloud, like customer relationship management (CRM), HR, accounting, and much more. Some of the world’s largest companies moved their applications to the cloud with salesforce.com after rigorously testing the security and reliability of our infrastructure.

As cloud computing grows in popularity, thousands of companies are simply rebranding their non-cloud products and services as “cloud computing.” Always dig deeper when evaluating cloud offerings and keep in mind that if you have to buy and manage hardware and software, what you’re looking at isn’t really cloud computing but a false cloud.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 10:18 | Report Abuse

It is about linking everything in cloud! Not replacing existing computers! All you windows, softwares, apps in cloud linking to your devices. So it do help HDD ok

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-18 13:42 | Report Abuse

I find this link informative and reflective of what JCY comments on its performance and outlook.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomcoughlin/2014/10/29/magnetic-trends-driving-storage-and-future-memory-markets/