Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-18 17:09 | Report Abuse

paper: you are talking about cloud computing not CLOUD STORAGE, both very different things.
it is not replacing existing computers but replacing existing local data storage for consumers and businesses with remote cloud based storage which is located in a data centre within shared infrastructure. The consumer and businesses will no longer need to buy HDD if they can store everything on the cloud e.g. dropbox, box etc. Also the data centres use special Internal Operating System and software to compress your data so fewer HDD are required. Let me teach you something, what do you think are the 2 most expensive operating cost for a data centre? let me answer that for you, power and cooling. and what consumes alot of power and generate a lot of heat? correct HDD! Why? because HDD have a lot of mechanical moving parts which spin around all day long and need a lot of power and generate a lot of heat with a high failure rate. Let me teach you a second thing, what doesn't use a lot of power and doesn't generate much heat and have very small failure rate? correct SDD solid state drive. Only a matter of time before SSD will replace HDD, the SSD price is already coming down lot and both WD and seagate have already started selling hybrid drive with a combination of SSD and HDD. This is a reason why both companies have been buying out smaller SSD companies like there is no tomorrow (research yourself).

cloud and game console is old news story for JCY 2 years now yet earnings cannot grow much. if you look at last quarter, the forex gain was about 25m and real sales profit was only 25m. half of the reported earnings was attributed to forex gain! the ringgit will not weaken forever and the USD will not appreciate forever. improved earnings based on forex gains alone are not unsustainable.

sense maker: your article is old. have a look at this one:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/01/29/western-digital-posts-mixed-results-as-unit-shipments-stagnate/

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 17:12 | Report Abuse

Yes. SSD better. but SSD is x10 expensive than HDD. So you think corp will replace meh??

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-18 17:23 | Report Abuse

10X? I think you are 2 years behind. It is only about 4 -5 times higher now and the long term savings in operating costs (power/cooling) for SSD for data centres makes its more viable in the long term. Not to mention the longer self life due to lower failure rate of SSD.

500 gig SSD - $299
http://www.pccasegear.com/index.php?main_page=product_info&products_id=30658&cPath=909&utm_source=googlebase&utm_medium=cse&utm_campaign=export_feed&gclid=COT5itTIscQCFUVwvAodrHAAnQ#googlebase

500 gig HDD - $75

http://www.mwave.com.au/product/seagate-st1000dm003-1tb-barracuda-desktop-hdd-35-7200rpm-sata3-hard-drive-aa19741?gclid=CJSdxP_IscQCFUsDvAodpC8AAw

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-18 19:54 | Report Abuse

I guess HDD industry is stabilizing now, thus JCY's revenue will at least sustain if not increase. Couple with the weak RM, JCY's subsequent earning will be very likely greater than last qtr. Most importantly I think div will be declared each qtr just as few years back when JCY was making profit.

You are right that SSD is the biggest thread to HDD, thus I treat JCY a short to medium term investment only when the impact of SSD is not too obvious. Longer term, any futher technological breakthrough on SSD can kill HDD and thus JCY.

Good luck

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-18 19:57 | Report Abuse

If not because of work, I personally like SSD much more than HDD where I can turn on Ipad immediately but take few minutes to switch on lap top.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 21:02 | Report Abuse

HDD is still cheapest mean of storage

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-18 21:14 | Report Abuse

I think the price difference is 5 times between SSD and HDD now, with SSD available mainly in smaller capacity. The price gap may or may not be bridged fully as many hybrid solutions will be adopted to meet the speed, price and capacity requirements of users in coming years. Positives for JCY may include the fact that ultra-thin HDD reduces the relative disadvantage of thickness of HDD which fit into many ultra-books and laptops; and many gadgets may use a combination of both SSD and HDD simultaneous demands for speed and storage. With demand for storage rising by 40% annually as measured in gigabyte, there should be space and niche for both SSD and HDD. Of course, the best is to ask JCY directors in coming AGM end of this month on whether they have any plan to ensure the relevance of JCY's biz model by say investing in SSD when the technology around SSD matures in coming years. JCY is currently priced by market at 5.5 times of FCF, which assumes the latest quarterly results are unsustainable. Time will tell.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-18 21:45 | Report Abuse

If you read back. Jcy boss said he don't even bother abt ssd. He must have know something. Maybe improvement or twist of certain tech will improve HDD. Thus making no sense to switch to ssd?

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-18 22:25 | Report Abuse

This video is 1 year old which I find informative too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQEjGKYXjw8

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-18 22:57 | Report Abuse

Special tanks to sense, ray and paper for the valuable info and discussion.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-19 07:29 | Report Abuse

Obvious that many here do not understand the industry or JCY at all. JCY is a precision mechanical manufacturing company which uses CNC machining to make HDD components like base plate, actuator etc. These components have no electronic circuitry and JCY therefore does not fall under the the semi conductor industry. A semi conductor company makes electronic parts, e.g. circuit boards, silicon chips which require different electronic machining NOT CNC machines like JCY. With CNC machine you can make many precision mechanical parts other then HDD component like for example the steering wheel on a car or a door handle but you CANNOT use CNC machine to make electronic circuitry like the circuit boards or silicon chips in the computer of a car. SSD is a circuit board/silicon chip which JCY will never be able to make unless it spends billions on setting up a new semi conductor business. You might say they might in the future, but this will not happen because WD and seagate already buying out all the SSD makers and producing ssd for themselves so who will JCY supply SSD to in the future? This is why the owner cannot even consider SSD even though he know it is the future because the cost of entry is so high and WD seagate already producing it themselves. If the prospect for JCY/HDD are so good, the owner will already privatise it back in 2012 during the thai flood at .43 or last year when the share price was .50. You think he is a nice businessman to share the opportunity with you all. How do I know all of this? I work for a large US data centre solution company and guess what all the clients are replacing their HDD disk array and servers with when a HDD fails now? You guessed it SSD. The reason for this is simple. You only need to compare the size of a waffle of SSD to a HDD drive. within a data centre, a customer pays for rack space which houses all their servers and disk arrays and other cloud infrastructure etc. This is abit like leasing a space in shop. So if you can fit in more storage and infrastructure within a rack using SSD, why would you use a bulky HDD drive with high failure rate and long outage recovery time? On the surface it appears SSD is 5 x more expensive, but when you factor in operating cost like rack space, electricity, cooling, downtime, recovery time, performance, it actually makes more sense to go with SSD. This is why companies are starting to prefer SDD and why the price of SSD has fallen alot over the last few years because demand has grown so much that it can be produced more which accelerate the price drop even further. and this is why WD and seagate have started buying out all the SSD makers because they know what is coming and its not looking good for HDD which is why they too have not come in to take over JCY when the share price was .43 in 2012 and .50 last year. They are just buying bit of time until HDD completely dies and by then they can produce SDD themselves and do not need a third party like JCY to make component for them anymore. JCY earnings only look good in short term because it is dressed up by the forex gains but takeaway the forex gain and it is clear the company is in a decline which is a mirror of what is happening in the HDD/SSD industry. It is monopolising some of the HDD components because most of their competitors can no longer survive and sooner or later it too will become extinct. Anyone vested in this company is very brave or have alot of money to burn either way a sitting duck waiting to be shot. Its your money, good luck.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2015-03-19 07:38 | Report Abuse

lamken resurface as raymondtang kikikiki

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-19 07:49 | Report Abuse

who the hell is lamkan?

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2015-03-19 07:52 | Report Abuse

lamken is the legend of jcy that brought a lots of people to holland.

hey wat ups lamken? kikikiki

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2015-03-19 08:03 | Report Abuse

nonononononono... no la, its just dat lamken used to write very long and very compact reply and he is a huge promoter of jcy 3 years ago, your reply remind me of him, kikiki

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-19 22:48 | Report Abuse

Owner of JCY already know HDD is sunset business.... Which is why he listed at very high price and selling high. When he hold too much share. He is slowly disposing to meet Bursa requirement and make as much as possible. When price drop, he collect back and sell at higher price. When JCY makes money, he takes away the profit as investment to increase capacity. In the name of increasing capacity in a sunset business is just taking money out. Not giving back to shareholders. That is why even after Thai flood when JCY had the most share and profit, their price never could hit above IPO price. All the profit is not returned to shareholders. This is not a counter you can trust

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-19 22:51 | Report Abuse

If there is a way to poll how many people got stuck between 0.75 to 1.35, you will all be very surprised.....

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 00:29 | Report Abuse

SSD manufacturing capacity today is limited and cannot meet the current storage demand. Big data centres today are still buying HDDs. In fact this is the major growth area. Laptops are moving to SSD but desktops and servers are still majority HDD. Some data centres are buying SSD for data centers but this is really small. Why ? because HDD still has value in terms of low cost / GB and reasonable performance. Some data centres are trying to differentiate themselves by using SSD for faster performance. But the capex is tremendously high and ROI is low and also their available capacity is also low. HDD will still be around for another 10 years or more. Remember that tape was suppose to disappear when HDD came around but tape is still growing at 2% YOY due to their lowest cost of storage for cold storage. So if tape cannot be replaced by HDD, do you think HDD can be replaced by SSD ?

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 00:36 | Report Abuse

So HDD although is sunset, still has a long run way. The investors in US already understand this which is why Seagate and WD shares has gone up YOY after the Thai flood. Why JCY share price did not follow Seagate or WD trend ? JCY will never be able to follow WD and Seagate price trends as long as the JCY owner still hold 75% of JCY shares

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 00:42 | Report Abuse

By the way, if anyone has the annual report of a SSD company that shows they are earning a lot of money, pls share. I have not seen one. As I have not seen one, I can only assume all SSD companies today don't really earn a decent profit... How much Seagate and WD earns in their annual reports... Each of them earn a net profit of close to USD800mil to USD1Bil per year. So go figure if HDD is profitable or not compared to SSD.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 00:43 | Report Abuse

My money is with Seagate and WD but not JCY

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-20 01:10 | Report Abuse

For discussion purpose, lets assume HDD is going out of biz in 5 years and do a rough theoretical break-up value calculation in an extreme scenario:

Net asset per share of JCY as at 31.12.2014 was 57sen. All are realizable into cash except plant and machinery and equipment worth 20sen per share which will be fully depreciated 5 years from now and will have to be thrown away. Revaluation of land and buildings should fetch at least a surplus of 10sen per share.

JCY is set to make at least 13sen free cash flow per share in 2015. If we assume the performance to stay flat for 5 years and then HDD suddenly turns obsolete in year 6 and JCY closes shop soon after, JCY will have 47sen + 13 sen* 5 years = RM1.12 per share to return back to its shareholders if it will not distribute any dividend to its shareholders in the next 5 years. So your return will be 39sen/73sen = 53% in 5 years, not at all disastrous.

When storage needs grow at 40% annually and items requiring big storage like CCTV and video will only grow in next 5 years and into future, and that HDD continues to offer declining cost per GB each year over the preceding year, as well as the long-standing rapport between JCY and WD and SG, it is reasonable to expect JCY to continually adjust to technological changes and piggyback on the growth of WD and SG through pure HDD mechanical contribution or venturing into a new form of technology for continued relevance.

The spotlight for now is whether JCY can achieve RM65m PAT or RM80m FCF in the coming quarter. The better the result, the stronger evidence that HDD remains the mainstay of data storage for at least 5 years.

Good luck.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-20 05:53 | Report Abuse

I like thread of JCY as most of its forumers are knowledgeable and sharing great info from multiple perspective. Thks

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 06:58 | Report Abuse

Flash writing on the wall for HDD makers

* SanDisk sales are booming, based on its NAND foundry integration and well-executed move into enterprise storage.

* Record second quarter revenue of $1.63bn was 11 per cent up year-on-year. Net income was £274m, 4.6 per cent more than a year ago – with revenues growing faster than profits.

* There was a 97 per cent y-on-y increase in total SSD revenue.

* SanDisk reported a 2x y/y and +30 per cent sequential growth in enterprise SSDs.
(A 230% percent growth in Enterprise SSD storage!)

* 3D NAND pilot production in second half of 2015 and general production building up in 2016 into 2017. (3D NAND allows cells to be stacked on top of each other on the same SSD chip allowing the storage capacity to double/triple the amount of storage on a single waffle of SSD. This will have major implications for SSD pricing since producers can start to double/triple storage on the same SSD chip without a large increase in production cost. = Big fall in
SSD pricing coming.)


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/07/17/sandisk_ssd_sales_soar/

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 07:15 | Report Abuse

ITworld | November 23, 2014

Intel and Micron are going to kill the hard disk drive.

Massive advances in NAND flash storage could eventually render the old spinning drive obsolete.

For too long, it looked like SSD capacity would always lag well behind hard disk drives, which were pushing into the 6TB and 8TB territory while SSDs were primarily 256GB to 512GB.
big data risks

That seems to be ending. Not long after Samsung announced a 3.2TB SSD drive, Intel announced its alliance with Micron Technology will yield enormous capacity SSD drives.

During an investor webcast last week, Intel announced it will begin offering 3D NAND drives in the second half of next year as part of its joint flash venture with Micron. It stacks 32 planar layers of NAND memory with 3 bits per cell for 32GB of storage in a single MLC die. Pack a bunch of those chips onto an SSD drive or PCI Express card and capacities will easily break the multiple terabyte barrier.

Rob Crooke, senior vice president and general manager of Intel's non-volatile memory group, said this will allow for 10TB SSDs within the next couple of years, or high capacity storage in tiny form factors. He said the 3D stacking would allow for 1TB of storage on a form factor two millimeters thick. In other words, thumb drives 1TB in capacity.

Intel hasn't decided which market segment will get this "breakthrough" technology first. SSD started out on the consumer side and worked its way into the data center slowly, because it had to prove its reliability and stability for the data center market, which has very little patience or tolerance for data loss.

http://www.itworld.com/article/2851057/intel-and-micron-are-going-to-kill-the-hard-disk-drive.html

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-20 07:40 | Report Abuse

I have not make profit from JCY. Now you are telling so much risk on HDD which I have to admit that I have the same view albeit it is not in the same magnitude and same speed as yours. You had made me nervous with facts.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 09:34 | Report Abuse

I have spoken to Intel engineers in their SSD division. 3bits per cell or TLC SSD is the cheapest SSD solution today BUT it has a life of only 1,000 rewrites. Meaning life is going to be short. 1bit per cell or SLC is the most expensive, most reliable SSD with lowest capacity BUT 100,000 rewrites. SSD companies are now mixing TLC to increase capacity to make SSD more affordable but the risk is it has limited life. Cloud servers changes data regularly and if TLC is employed, risk of data loss will be high. Sandisk's main profit drivers are still coming from SD cards using TLC. You will realise your SD cards used in your digital camera typically fails after 2 years. This is due to TLC limitation. Will need to check how much ada disk actually sells their SSD as SSD and not actually SD card sales

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 09:47 | Report Abuse

Paste facts with links and evidence here please. No second hand information with he said she said. I have a digital camera with a flash card that's over 12 years old and the flash card still working fine. I can send it to you to have a look. I also have a smart phone over 5 years old with no issues with the flash storage. If what you are saying is true every digital camera and smartphone storage should fail every 2 years. Do you have any friends or family that experience this abscene rate of failure? Apple and Samsung will be out of business by now.

Posted by lohman > 2015-03-20 10:27 | Report Abuse

"The news of my death is greatly exaggerated..." so replied American author Mark Twain when news of his supposed death reached him. So it is with HDD. It's not dying anytime soon though the technology, like any other man made technology, can be replaced with more efficient SSD or NAND or hybrids or whatever, when breakthroughs in technologies or costs make it feasible. For total replacement of all HDDs by other storage devices, the economics must make eminent sense, especially in cost conscious and emergent markets, for products such as low priced desk tops, laptops and servers. It also takes much time and effort.

I believe sense maker's view of JCY's future prospects is more balanced. Five years more, ten years, who knows? The days of fat profit margins may be past but there's still some money to be made supplying components to HDD manufacturers WD and Seagate this year, and the next, and the next......hopefully.

I keep track of WD's and Seagate's corporate developments as well just to make sure there are no undue surprises. Their share prices are holding up well, so the market does not think HDD is going extinct tomorrow.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-20 10:52 | Report Abuse

mY sAMSUNG PHONE CRASH within 2 years loh. But my old time WD hard disk external still working find loh.

HDD still the cheapest and safest way of storage. Yes, SSD drive much electric efficient or more environment friendly. but it is costly. And I see it maintain costly for long!

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 11:27 | Report Abuse

12 years ago MLC or TLC not commercialized yet laa... TLC is the technology driving larger capacity and lower cost for SSD today. TLC only commercialized 4 years ago. My SD cards have failed after 2 years. My dad's SD card can record but he pictures disappear. And this is like after 1.5 years. And he is a heavy user as he travels a lot and takes lots of pictures and transfers a lot between his computer and digital camera.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 11:29 | Report Abuse

My take... HDD is not going away... SSD will also be around where performance is required. Seagate and WD shares will continue to stabilize and grow. But JCY, good luck to all who still hope it will fly

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 11:35 | Report Abuse

Wow so precise after 2 years. Let me guess it conveniently failed due to the flash card failing. If this were even true I think you would be 1 in how many millions of smartphones Samsung sells each year? If I do a search for Samsung smart phone product recalls , am I going to sell millions of device recalls due to failed ssd flash card in the last 2 years? No.

The price gap is obviously Not an issue anymore for ssd enterprise segment to grow 230%. As the price of ssd goes down more with the release of 3D nand in the coming months, the percentage is only going to skyrocket more. Cost WAS a factor for ssd but it will not be th case anymore for long.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-20 11:44 | Report Abuse

SSD widely used due to tablets and smart phone. But for storage wise, ppl still use HDD. And how long can tablets growth? Someday it will stagnant once everyone use smart phones and tablets.

But HDD still growing due to data storage and cloud requirement.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 11:49 | Report Abuse

Lohman the only exaggeration here is the same tune you have been playing for years from reading your previous comments. Have you conveniently forgotten last year when the price was .74 you promoting Jcy heavily asking everyone to buy, you even made up stories and exaggerate to say you bought billions of Jcy yet the price drop to .47 shortly after? Do you know how many people lost money because of your ignorance. Yet you can still have face come back here to comment. You like quote, just think about the scene from titanic when the band keep playing like nothing is wrong yet the ship is sinking and all eventually go down with the ship.

You know why WD and Seagate shares are well supported? Because they venturing into ssd.
By buying out all the ssd makers. There is no relationship between WD and Seagate share price and Jcy. Both U.S. companies shares have doubled in the last 2 years. Jcy drop to a low of .47 last year.

Posted by duatlai > 2015-03-20 11:58 | Report Abuse

Price retreating again, what's the near future of JCY?

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-20 12:24 | Report Abuse

I think Ringgit weakness, which looks set to continue will be a boost to JCY in near future. Besides, consolidation of the market means fewer competitors for JCY. At 71.5sen, the dividend yield is 7% if JCY can maintain 5 sen dividend a year. The price should be well supported by dividend yield as price drop means dividend yield increase. Maybe, JCY's business will drop or change after 5 years but within the next 5 years, its results should be good. If results stay flat for 5 years, you will have made 55% gain in 5 years if JCY closes shop and give you back all net assets. If JCY continues, all FCF beyond that is free. I think any weakness in price is an opportunity to buy. Just my view.

Posted by duatlai > 2015-03-20 12:33 | Report Abuse

Thank you very much, Thank you very much again@ sense maker

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 12:36 | Report Abuse

I agree any weakness in price is opportunity to buy. But never keep. Dividend is tempting but have seen how JCY prices can waterfall. It's a risky counter. So be on guard if you are holding JCY shares

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 12:40 | Report Abuse

BTW, when 3D Nand commercializes, the HAMR technology for HDD will also commercialize. HAMR is a technology that can enable between 10TB to 100TB per HDD. When this comes out, the cost of HDD per GB will be like USD0.01/GB from current USD0.08/GB... The competition continues....

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 13:39 | Report Abuse

Hamr is at least 10 years awaybefore it can even be commercialized. 3D nand is coming out mid this year. 3D nand will destroy hamr/hdd before it even gets a chance to make it to market. Watch Jcy fall like a rock when 3d nand flash is release in next few months. The price gap between ssd and hdd will be closed. The game changer is coming. Hold onto Jcy if you think Iam wrong.

http://www.computerworld.com/article/2852233/want-a-100tb-disk-drive-youll-have-to-wait-til-2025.html

Posted by lohman > 2015-03-20 14:20 | Report Abuse

I made decent money from JCY over the past year buying initially at 71 sen but averaging my cost lower over the last few months with some trading profits. As a longer term investor, am not allowing myself to be intimidated by scaremongers. But if you are unduly worried, do cash out. 'Sense maker' continues to make sensible comments.

As an aside, MD Tan Shih Leng holds 7 million shares at average cost 64/65 sen. He is a professional and has been with JCY since 1997, first as GM, then ED in 2011 and is currently MD. He is the JCY insider whose trades I will follow closely.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 14:39 | Report Abuse

And you also followed him last year when he bought at .75 before it dropped to .47. Even all the director insiders who took out the Esos at .61 also die at the time. Everything I have presented here is backed with facts and evidence unlikely some who are still in fairy land making up stories of buying billions in Jcy. You can continue to be in denial and use your made up billions to buy Jcy again now at .74 since md tan last bought at .74 last week. I have never asked anyone to buy or sell but if you want my opinion I think Jcy price collapse to under .30 once 3D nand is released and price gap between hdd and ssd is bridged. I will say this will happen around June/ July. WD and Seagate share price will not be impacted as they have already positioned themself well in ssd. They have bought out many ssd makers.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-20 14:48 | Report Abuse

have to drop more....0.70 will nice.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-20 14:51 | Report Abuse

6.3% DY is no good enough, make it 10% please.

Posted by lohman > 2015-03-20 14:52 | Report Abuse

Sigh; some people don't read carefully or understand well, or exaggerate selectively, or take umbrage unnecessarily. Billions in Rupiah, millions of JCY stock, entry 70/71 sen and so on. Please exchange differing views with lightheartedness, not animosity.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-20 14:54 | Report Abuse

ya, johnny, lohman makes the point clear. You know why JCY can bounce so fast from 0.50 back to 0.70. As most shares hold by top holders. YOu can talk kok over SSD, HDD bla bla, it is giving great dividens amidst good result. It proof that it is still doing ok if not doing well.

Thus I did not see any threat as of today from SSD

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-20 15:01 | Report Abuse

I don't care about SSD, HDD or what. What care is they result and div payout. Higher DY lower share price I bought, I will enjoy more upstream profit.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-20 15:02 | Report Abuse

Well, with JCY scale, they can anytime ventures into SSD components as well. I do not see much problems here

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-20 15:05 | Report Abuse

Currently they bought so many machine... but I don't know is for what propose...they refuse to tell me what kind of new product....
maybe ask the Director on next week meeting.