for the FYE 31 December 2013, the Group reported net operating cash flow of RM47m (positive, not negative). However, after accounting for changes in working capital (for example, they pay their trade creditors additional RM34m, while their debtors paid them RM6m, etc), they reported negative net operating cash flow of RM9.5m.
Unless I understand it incorrectly, changes in working capital itself is a neutral event from economics point of view (you neither gain nor loss by paying your creditors). Hence I would ignore the effect arising from that. In other words, the group reported net operating cash flow of RM47m in FY2013, contrary to the myth that they are always in negative cashflow.
I think I have been objective with my above analysis. To be fair, if before factoring in changes in working capital, they already reported negative operating cashflow, I would be frantically pressing my sell button now
(1) first of all, with due respect to sephiroth, your statement "ivory's receivables are very high at RM144.44m. Without drawdown of term loans and bridging loans of RM111m, cash balance would have been -RM84.2m" is not meaningful (my apology, I admit I am being a bit blunt here). No company in Malaysia operates without receivables. Everybody has receivables. So saying that they need to rely on term loan because they have receivable is......??? I dont know what is the meaning of that.....
(2) having said so, we still need to examine the receivables. Receivable is a problem if there are signs that it will turn into bad debts (long debtors' day). To have a better feel, I study the 2012 annual report. In 2012, they reported RM151m receivables (almost same as FY2013 RM144m).
Out of RM151m receivables, RM25m is due from associate companies (part of the group), RM33m are trade receivables, RM6.8m due from contract customers, accrued billings RM45m (not sure what this is ? suspect is unbilled sale, meaning amount payable by buyers ? if true, it should be backed by bank loan draw down by purchasers), RM25m other receivables (no further details), RM13m deposit and prepayment made to JV Co (meaning refundable in the future ?), RM3.8m share application money (sounds like something refundable).
based on the foregoing, out of RM151m, RM25m + RM13m + RM3.8m (total RM42m) are amoung owning by intra group (definitely no bad debt). RM45m accrued billing (back by bank loans by purchaser ?). the remaining RM50m + are trade and other receivables from external parties.
No matter how I look at it, doesnt seem that receivables are going to turn into a bad debt problem (1/3 intra group, 1/3 back by loans, 1/3 possibly naked exposure ?)
sephiroth let me share some insight about financing for property development. Usually the land value is sufficient to form the equity base for the debt financing (meaning not much cash injection by the owner of the property company). If your sale is strong, under certain circumstances, the property development company might not even need to borrow much from the bank, the sale proceeds itself will be sufficient to finance the development work.
In other words, if your property project is attractive (good location, correct product, correct pricing, etc), funding a property project is usually not a problem, contratry to your perception that Tropicnana Ivory will struggle to raise funding going forward.
will study and revert. Just to pre empt you, I dont expect a satisfactory answer. I admit they screwed up in 2013, which could be due to starting cost incurred to nurture Tropicanan Ivory
Up Down, in FY2012, they reported RM25m net profit. However, there was a gain of RM27m from "bargain purchase gain on acquisition of subsidiaries" and RM10m fair value gain. Stripped those off, FY2012 reported a lost of RM12m
As such, FY2013 net profit is actually higher than FY2012 (consistent with the higher revenue)
as correctly pointed out by you in your figures, their gearing was reasonable until 2011. There is a spike in 2012 to 230m and further to 277m in 2013. A lot of people are alarmed by this.
However, I suspect this is due to the gestation period for jump starting Penang World City. Before 2012, they are a healthy company (loan of RM155m, net profit of RM25m to RM30m consistently). However, they kicked start preparatory work for PWC in first half 2012 (the EGM for the JV and rights issue was held in February 2012, please refer to circular to shareholders). Since the increase in expenses is not matched by sale (which we only started to see now), the financial figures (both P&L and B/S) got truned upside down. This has created a negative perception that they are ineffcient, they mismanaged the company, negative cashflow, etc (which could be true, ha ha, I dont know, I am not the owner, I am just an armchair analyst).
this is my theory for ivory lah. I dont know whether I am correct or not.
As mentioned earlier, buy at own risk. Dont blame me. I am risking my own money also. ka ka
Turnover: " The revenue for the property development and management segment for the current financial quarter was mainly derived from City Mall and City Residence (“CMCR”) which commenced development towards the end of the financial year, The Wave - Penang Times Square Phase 3 (“PTS 3”), The Peak Residences (“PR”) and The Latitude (“LAT”) projects."
Profit before Tax: " Current year’s financial quarter ended 31 December 2013 recorded higher profit before tax of RM12.5 million as compared to RM0.5 million in the preceding year’s corresponding quarter as a result of contribution from CMCR, PTS 3, PR and LAT projects, where PR project was completed in current financial quarter. "
Icon8888.
Next quarter performance will be depend on the progress of: 1. City Mal and City Residence ( CMCR ) 2. The Wave - Penang Times Square Phase 3 (“PTS 3”) 3. The Latitude (“LAT”)
" Moving forward, the Group will continue with development of its on-going projects, namely CMCR, LAT and Taman Bukit Erskine. In addition, the Group anticipate active progress for PTS 3 and and the jointly development project, Penang World City - Phase 1A (“PWC 1A”) in the next financial year.
As for construction segment, pursuant to the Builder Agreement dated 30 December 2011, the Group was awarded the first builder contract of a whopping RM404.0 million by Tropicana Ivory SdnBhd, the joint venture company with Tropicana Corporation Berhad, for PWC 1A in the current financial year.
These projects coupled with the construction contract will gradually generate better revenue and profit for the Group in financial year 2014 "
Do you have the information of the projects: 1. Taman Bukit Erskine 2. Penang World City - Phase 1A (“PWC 1A”)
We would have a different view after analyzing the reasons for surge in borrowing. The main reason was due to purchase 3 piece of lands in year 2010 & 2012 & 2011 for future business growth.
Net Borrowing as at 31 Dec 13 : 277 million Less: Land acquired in year 2012: 53.9 million Less: Land acquired in year 2011: 49.7 million Net Borrowing : 173.4 million Less: Net Borrowing as at 31 Dec 11 : 155 million Borrowing for car park bay & land acquired (estimate) : 18.4 million
Land acquired: Year 2012 costs RM 53,906,000 - Size: 599,473 sqf - Residential and Commercial development Lot No. 141, Geran 12342, Mukim 18, Mt. Erskine, Tanjung Tokong, Daerah Timur Laut, Pulau Pinang.
Land acquired: Year 2011 costs RM 49,671,000 - Size: 100,805 sqf - Freehold Land held for future development - Lot Nos. 1599, 1602 and 1603, Geran Nos. 70644, 70647 and 70648, Seksyen 2, Bandar Tanjung Tokong, Daerah Timur Laut, Pulau Pinang.
Land acquired: Year 2008 & 2010 & 2011 & 2012 costs RM 48,408,000 - Freehold 1 - 4 Commercial with Car Parking Bays
Phase 1 & 2 of Penang Times Square Partial of Lot No. PT25, H.S.(D). 16561, Seksyen 10, Bandar George Town, Daerah Timur Laut, Pulau Pinang.
The net borrowing different of 65 million between year 2010 and 2011 is for working capital purpose. We can say that 122 million out of 187 million surged in net borrowing between year 2011 and 2013 is for acquiring 3 pieces of lands
Ivory made about 65 million of profit after tax between year 2011 & 2013. It has never declared any dividend for shareholders. This amount of money is for working capital purpose too. Right issues of 100 million exercised in year 2012 is for working capital purpose also. To double its turnover from 163 million (2010) to 305 million (2013), it required additional working capital of 165 million.
Up Down, I don't have the details of their respective projects (Penang Time Square, Wave, etc). When I invest in property development companies, I usually don't go into this kind of details. This is because there are too many moving parts (profit margin, take up rate, timing of billing, etc), which is so complicated that it is meaningless for investment decision making (for me).
For Penang World City, the economics are as per my earlier postings (RM10 bn x 45% x 15% net margin, divided by eight years). All other projects I put into a black box and as long as every year they churn out 20 to 30m net profit, I will breath a sigh of relieve.
RHB issued a one off report after GE13. They expected earnings to turn around in FY2014. We are now in 2014, time to buy ? (the report is dated May 2013, but the facts and concept remains the same and valid)
May 25, 2013Ivory Properties Group Berhad - Penang World City The Earnings Driver Price Target:0.92 Last Price:0.77
Penang World City The Earnings Driver
We value Ivory at MYR0.92, based on 45% discount to RNAV. The stock is currently trading at 0.88x P/B. Ivory’s earnings are expected to pick up from FY14 onwards, largely driven by the successful preview of PWC in 1Q13. The first four blocks have received an encouraging booking rate of 70-80%. We are hopeful that the JV co could bring in reputable players to add value to PWC.
- Penang World City (PWC) taking off. We visited PWC, which is a 55:45 JV project between Dijaya and Ivory. This project has a GDV of MYR9.8bn, and it forms more than 80% of Ivory’s total portfolio GDV. Apart from residences, it also comprises a retail mall, medical centre, international school, hotels, Grade A offices and convention centre. Since its soft launch in early 2013, the four residential blocks at Phase 1 (GDV of MYR610m) have achieved an average booking rate of 70-80% at an average price of MYR700 psf. The JV co is currently in talks with a few interested parties to jointly develop the retail mall with an estimated NLA of 1m sqf. Outright land sale is also possible if the price is attractive and /or the development can add value to PWC.
- Earnings impact will come from FY14 onwards. The JV co is expected to obtain the A&P license in Aug. Bookings will then be gradually converted into sales. We expect earnings to pick up only from FY14 onwards. Note that, earnings will come from two sources – property development and construction. Given Ivory’s 48% share of the GDV, this translates to construction revenue of MYR293m just for the first four blocks launched. Earnings in FY13 will be underpinned by ongoing projects such as The Peak Residence and The Latitude condo worth a total GDV of MYR439m. The recent preview of City Residence has also received an encouraging booking rate of 80%.
- Cheap, but lacks track record. Admittedly, Ivory is lacking solid earnings track record and balance sheet strength (net gearing 0.6x) that warrant a convincing re-rating. However, given the current buoyant sentiment on the sector, Ivory’s current valuations appear undemanding at 0.88x P/B. Land value on the Penang island is expected to rise further as IJMLD and E&O make announcements on their projects in 2H. ♦ Fair value at MYR0.92. The stock is not rated. We value Ivory at MYR0.92, based on 45% discount to RNAV.
actually, my first exposure in Ivory was immediately after GE13 : the dust had settled, I was looking for things to buy. Somebody briefly mentioned Ivory recently saw good take up rate for their new launches at good price of RM700 + psf. So I jumped in and bought some at 60+ sen. Hwoever, later on, RHB issued the above report. One thing that caught my eyes then was that earnings will only recover in FY2014. Since it was still almost 2, 3 quarters of lousy results away, I felt no point holding to the stock too early, hence sold it off at small profit. After that I moved my money to some other stocks (uzma, puncak, pjdev, etc).
However, recently I cashed out from PJDev. With some surplus cash, I looked around for things to buy. As I am that kind of investors who like to snake in earlier than everybody else, stocks like MKH, Tambun, Huayang, etc are too famous for my liking. After sniffing around, I found Ivory at this stage of earnings cycle looked interesting.
according to ICapital, they screwed up Penang Time Squares because of wrong marketing strategy. It is actually quite a well known fact, when I mentioned Ivory to my brother in law, he said "Their Penang Time Square no people go one" ha ha
- GDV 322 million - Year launched 2012 ( Completing 2016 )
- A mixed development by Ivory on a 2.42 arce prime freehold land in Tanjung Tokong. - The commercial segment (City Mall) will consists of 23 three-storey units ranging from 3,750 sq.ft. to 14,200 sq.ft. - The 202 residential units (City Residence) will feature studio apartments from the 7th to 10th floor as well as typical units and penthouses, ranging from 660 sq.ft. to 5,600 sq.ft. With facilities including a pool, gym room, sauna room, children’s playground and BBQ pit, the two 39-storey towers will appeal to your individuals and couples looking for trendy, cosmopolitan-style home.
2. The Wave - Penang Times Square Phase 3:
- GDV 263 million ( 1.58 billion Overall ) - Construction started in May 2013 ( completing 2017 ) - Jalan Dato' Keramat, George Town, Penang. - 312 units office suites take up rate 80% ( The Edge 24 Jan 2014 ) - Offer 10% discount & 5% cash rebate
- SCHEDULE Phase 1 - Completion Date: 2008 Phase 2 - Completion Date: 2011 Phase 3 - Estimated to commence in Mid of 2013 Phase 4 - In planning stage ( GDV 480 million - plan to start 1st half 2015 & completing 2019) Phase 5 - In planning stage
3. The Latitude
- GDV 195 million ( 498 million overall ) - Year launched 2012 ( Completing 2015 )
- Mount Erskine, a prestigious area of natural environment and appealing sea view. - The Latitude, just like its name, suggests the gravity-defying aura from the pinnacle. This masterpiece parades its 43-storey façade as one of the tallest residential buildings in the whole of Penang Island. Perched 500 feet above sea level, its elevated facilities level allows residents to enjoy the stunning cityscape of Penang. The Latitude is innovated to meet the needs of the market for mid-sized luxury condominiums that are affordably priced with living spaces ranging from 1,500 sq ft to 5,300 sq ft.
4. Taman Bukit Erskine
- GDV 58.5 million - Resumed construction year 2012 ( Completing 2014 ) - Mount Erskine, Tanjung Tokong - Comprising 554 units in its 38-storey apartment block, Taman Bukit Erskine is designed with three bedrooms, one bathroom and one washroom for each of the 654 sq ft unit. - Project was abandoned for 11 years due to the 1997 economic crisis and was revived when Ivory took up the project as a white knight in 2007.
5. Penang World City
- GDV 835 million ( Phase 1A ) - Launched 1 Feb 2013 ( Completing 2017 ) - 4 out of 6 towers sold 85% ( The edge 29 Nov 13 )
- JV Tropicana - Overall GDV 10 billion projects develop 8 to 10 years - The first phase, parcel 1A of the project comes with the design theme of The Valley Zone with five blocks of condominium (A, B, C, D and E). - 1 million sqft net lettable shopping mall will be built & inject into a closed-end fund or Special Purpose Vehicle with 2 other malls. - Strategically located within Bayan Mutiara, a new development hub located in the eastern part of the Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu Expressway and in the vicinity of Sungai Nibong. - Comprises four 22-storey residential tower, with condominium unit size ranging from 455 sq.ft onwards.
I am looking for a turnaround company too. It takes a lot of time to do research one by one. Sometimes, it depends on luck also. Any counter you believe would turnaround?
Can't tell now lah. Buying on Monday. But anyway, not very exciting counter. So don't expect hot band and firework, etc. Monday evening I reveal at this thread lah
Unlike ivory which I hope for 100% gain, the new counter probably 50% gain. Not very sexy.
The reason I am taking a look is because there are signs their earnings are moving from an old level (for many years) to a new level. Hence it is time to be kiasu by parking some $ there before a clear trend of earnings growth surface, by which time it would be too late to buy
The whole idea is to always try to move one step ahead of everybody
Dear Icon8888, You have to wait for a long time because the technical chart is very weak. I hear your story, I will not buy because I cannot afford to wait for too long. The price trend is side way. I will buy when the chart shows a breakout even the price is a bit higher. An up trending stock will run very fast. This is the advantage of Technical Analysis. I start to buy PJD-WC in Oct 2013 at 0.33, not a few years ago. This is my strategy to win big. Please do not mind my comment, I am not trying to brag that I am very good. I just share my strategy. Thank you for your understanding.
Dear OTB, don't worry, your comments won't upset me. I have witnessed first hand how u timed Pjdev-wc, and the timing is impeccable. So I know what you said is not bullshit. Having said so, I will stick to my own tried and tested way, which has served me well all this years. I hope one day I can learn from you the way to do TA. And then maybe there is a chance I can further boost my performance. As for Ivory, I am ok keeping it long term. So I am ok with weak technical signals. Thanks for your input. The fact that you bother to take a look at it has already made me very happy. Have a nce evening
Not that I am incessantly promoting Ivory. It is that since I have already have exposure in the stock, I am naturally interested in the Penang property market. Hence when I am free, I will google for related news and articles. The following is an article from www.propertyguru.sg dated 28 January 2014 about Penang property market. One of the reason I like Ivory is because they are in Penang Island. As mentioned in article below, land prices is holding well in Penang Island due to scarcity of land
Penang property prices booming
Jan 28, 2014
Property prices in Penang have significantly increased, especially in the capital Georgetown, based on the lack of prime land on the island as well as the skyrocketing land prices.
Notably, prices have increased by more than 500 percent on the island while Seberang Prai saw prices soar by 700 percent.
In a report, AmResearch Sdn Bhd (AmResearch) underlined that land prices in Georgetown have already hit rates between RM650 per sq ft and RM700 per sq ft.
“Interestingly, Penang’s residential property prices have been rising faster than its land value. Property prices have surged beyond RM1,000 per sq ft as evidenced by E&O’s project at Andaman Block 2. The project had set a new benchmark within Georgetown, with an average selling price of RM1,300 per sq ft,” the report noted.
The announcement of the second link project caused land prices at Batu Maung, which is situated on the island, to increase from between RM50 and RM60 per sq ft to between RM250 and RM600 per sq ft. Sebarang Prai witnessed prices increase from RM8-RM9 per sq ft to RM50-RM60 per sq ft.
Penang’s attractiveness would be boosted by IKEA’s entry into mainland Penang at Batu Kawan, in Seberang Perai Selatan.
“Being the second IKEA outlet in Malaysia, the ground work is expected to commence by end of the year or early 2015, and to be developed within five years. This is undertaken by Aspen to Ikano, a joint venture between Aspen Vision Land Sdn Bhd and Ikano,” explained AmResearch.
Moreover, the opening of the 24-km long Second Penang Bridge in February, which will connect Batu Kawan in the southern Seberang Prai and Batu Maung on Penang Island, is also expected to add to Penang’s vibrancy.
without a lot of people knowing it, Ivory has quietly gained exposure in the hot spot Seberang Prai area via its 49% owned associate company Aspen Vision Land Sdn Bhd (as mentioned in article above) which entered into a JV with Ikano recently
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Icon8888
18,659 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-28 10:22 | Report Abuse
for the FYE 31 December 2013, the Group reported net operating cash flow of RM47m (positive, not negative). However, after accounting for changes in working capital (for example, they pay their trade creditors additional RM34m, while their debtors paid them RM6m, etc), they reported negative net operating cash flow of RM9.5m.
Unless I understand it incorrectly, changes in working capital itself is a neutral event from economics point of view (you neither gain nor loss by paying your creditors). Hence I would ignore the effect arising from that. In other words, the group reported net operating cash flow of RM47m in FY2013, contrary to the myth that they are always in negative cashflow.
I think I have been objective with my above analysis. To be fair, if before factoring in changes in working capital, they already reported negative operating cashflow, I would be frantically pressing my sell button now