Posted by aklobi > 2017-05-31 19:39 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian.. how do we know the amount of stocks left to be sold by kenanga? If we can't know, then I believe that buying at different prices is a better strategy than waiting until Friday as they might have sold most of their shares..

Posted by suregain > 2017-05-31 19:43 | Report Abuse

Haha, never ending droping

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-05-31 19:56 | Report Abuse

aklobi, maximum Kenanga has is 4 million. But they may have less or they might hold the balance longer term. Check the volume since Monday, I think more than 2 million sold already. I'm just playing safe to wait until Friday. There's a bit of good news : RHB and AmBank shares suspended, likely merger announcement. Hopefully this will impact Affin favorably because analysts will start pointing out Affin is way below NTA.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-05-31 22:20 | Report Abuse

RHB-AmBank proposed merger will act as pressure to other banks, especially Affin to also merge with one another. In any merger involving Affin it will be valued at least one time book value which is around RM4.50 with the possibility of a cash exit option for minority shareholders. Hahaha, don't take what I say too seriously.

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-01 01:59 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian.. As I said previously.. I'm in love with Affin.. I view any fall in the price as an opportunity to buy.. my traget this time is above 3.3.. unless there is a tune we can dance to that can take it even higher as you've just suggested. i don't see Affin going above 4 impossible in 2017-18, it can do it with the right circumstances.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-01 07:00 | Report Abuse

Right circumstance will be a takeover or merger.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-01 09:57 | Report Abuse

LAST FEW DAYS THE SELLING PRESSURE SEEN IN THE AFTERNOON SESSION.
LIKELY KENANGA SELLING ITS 4M SHARES IN THE AFTERNOON
AFFIN CW EXPIRY NEXT TUESDAY

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-01 10:09 | Report Abuse

Affin-CU expires, not Affin-CW.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-01 10:18 | Report Abuse

YEAH. THANKS FOR THE CORRECTION.
MAY ALSO DO DOLLAR AVERAGING TOMORROW N NEXT MONDAY

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-01 10:49 | Report Abuse

Kenanga might continue to sell until Monday.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-01 17:25 | Report Abuse

Looks like selling has been well absorbed today perhaps due to RHB-AmBank merger.

Posted by aklobi > 2017-06-01 18:00 | Report Abuse

Yep.. seems like the bargain hunting has ended.. now only full price shopping! Pity as I wanted to buy more at lower prices

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-06-01 19:24 | Report Abuse

Hope no more dropping

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-02 08:23 | Report Abuse

EARNINGS RECOVERY HAD SLOWED DOWN A LOT DUE TO SPIKED GROSS IMPAIRED/BAD LOANS AND HIGHER OPERATING EXPENSES/COSTS AS SEEN IN THE LATEST Q RESULTS

Posted by Mittens > 2017-06-02 13:29 | Report Abuse

Good NTA . Bank stock no worries can leep

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-02 17:05 | Report Abuse

Gross impairment is actually sort of a reserve set aside, not a real loss.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-02 18:15 | Report Abuse

NOT COMPLETELY CORRECT. THE LOANS QUALITY MUST ALREADY BEING CLASSIFIED DOUBTFUL E.G FELL INTO 3 INSTALMENTS ARREARS , WHICH THEN REQUIRE PROVISIONS FOR BAD & DOUBTFUL DEBTS. SUCH IMPAIRMENTS ARE REAL N HAD ALREADY NEGATIVELY IMPACTED AFFINS PROFITS FOR 1Q RESULTS. OF COURSE IF SUCH IMPAIRED LOANS IMPROVED LATER THERE WILL BE WRITE BACKS.
BUT UNTIL THAT HAPPENS SUCH GILs WILL HIT THE BOTTOM LINE . THATS WHY I OBSERVED AFFINS EARNINGS RECOVERY HAD BEEN SET BACK BY GILs IN ITS 1Q COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS Qs.

Posted by Koh Wee Kiat > 2017-06-05 13:26 | Report Abuse

All banking share up like rocket except affin

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-05 15:16 | Report Abuse

TODAY I IS LIKELY THE TAIL END OF ANY SALES OF THIS STOCK BY KENANGA (ITS CALL WARRANTS ALREADY EXPIRED.)

ALSO EPF HAD REDUCED ITS SALES. ITS LAST REPORTED SALE WAS ON 24 APRIL 2017.
MAYBE THEY WILL NOW HOLD THEIR STOCK BALANCE FOR LONG TERM CORE HOLDINGS

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-05 15:22 | Report Abuse

ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT KENANGA HAD ALREADY FULLY DISPOSED ITS HOLDINGS BY NOW

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-06-05 16:58 | Report Abuse

Last minute , close green

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-05 17:24 | Report Abuse

Selling by Kenanga ends today.

Posted by Equityengineer > 2017-06-05 17:26 | Report Abuse

thanks for the info guys ...

Posted by Koh Wee Kiat > 2017-06-05 18:55 | Report Abuse

First time i heard the investment bank can fully dispose the warrant instead of helping affin bank to issue the warrant.

Posted by Mittens > 2017-06-07 17:36 | Report Abuse

No movement yet

Posted by msgpic2003 > 2017-06-07 19:29 | Report Abuse

What happen? Still remain same

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-08 16:54 | Report Abuse

Decided to buy some Affin-CV today.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-09 08:29 | Report Abuse

REVIEW & RE-ASSESS
==================
AFIN'S SHARE PRICE TOUCHED A RECENT HIGH OF 3.00 N RETRACED DOWN TO 2.68 YESTERDAY.
REASONS :
--------------
ALTHO 2016'S PROFIT OF 123.2M WAS 6.6% HIGHER YoY, ITS 1Q 2017 PROFIT GROWTH SLOWED DOWN DUE TO (1) HIGHER STAFF N OPERATING COSTS FOR ITS AFFINITY & BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMS TO BOOST EFFICIENCY AND PROFITABILITY.
EXPECT HIGHER PROFITS IN THE COMING QUARTERS/YEARS. (2) ITS NPL INCREASED BUT IT WAS CONFIRMED THAT IT WAS DUE TO ONE REALTY AC LOAN OF 200M. FULLY SECURED AND STILL PERFORMING BUT BCOS IT IS BEING RESTRUCTURED & RESCHEDULED (R&R) ITS A PROCEDURE TO MAKE A PROVISION AND TO WRITE IT BACK TO PROFITS UPON ITS COMPLETION.
(ACTUALLY AFFIN'S 1Q 2017 PROFIT WILL HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD IF NOT FOR THESE 2 REASONS. BUT THERE ARE POSITIVE ASPECTS IN THEM)

HENCE AFFIN'S PROFITS WILL JUMP UP IN THE COMING QUARTERS DUE TO (1) AND (2) ABOVE.

(PLSE REFER TO THE ABOVE HEADLINES/RESEARCH AND PRICE TARGETS BY INVESTMENT BANKS PROVIDED FROM 29/5 TO 30 MAY)

WELL, IMAGINE AN ESTABLISHED COMMERCIAL BANK WITH A GOOD ISLAMIC BANKING DIVISION WITH EPS OF 29.2 SEN AND A HIGH/SOLID NTA OF 4.54 ( SELLING NOW AT 2.68)

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-09 08:41 | Report Abuse

REFER TO VARIOUS RESEARCH/PRICE TARGETS BY INVESTMENTS BANKS IN THIS i3FORUM :-

MIDF TARGET 3.30 (CHANGE IN FOCUS BEARING FRUIT)
KENANGA 2.90 (ANOTHER ROUND OF SURGING FEE INCOMES)
HLG 2.80 (CLEAR THE AIR ON ASSET QUALITY)

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2017-06-09 14:14 | Report Abuse

Good. Good!

Posted by Koh Wee Kiat > 2017-06-09 18:28 | Report Abuse

Roughly run through the interim... Wages almost 20% and commision increase almost 100%. And profesional fee don know what is tat .. If this figure sustain in another quarter that means they need to find more business. Reason behind of dropping of share price i estimate bcs of increase in this three cost but whether they can sustain another increase of sales until this level remain unknown.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-09 23:40 | Report Abuse

One day Maybank will be asked to take over Affin and when that day comes the takeover will be done at a price of at least one time book value of RM4.50. The three largest shareholders in Affin are Lembaga Tabung Angkatan Tentera (35%), Bank of East Asia Ltd of Hong Kong (23%) and Boustead Holdings Bhd (20%). Free float only 22%. Easy target for takeover.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-09 23:43 | Report Abuse

The safest investment is keeping money in the bank. The second safest investment is buying shares of a bank way, way below its net assets value.

Posted by titus > 2017-06-10 07:43 | Report Abuse

This past week volume is so low. I wanted to buy some and there is only 8 selling @2.70. Will monitor next week.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-10 08:30 | Report Abuse

Nobody aggressive buying after Kenanga sold down 4 million shares. Some people tried to play contra by scooping up the shares sold by Kenanga but had to sell on T+3 as they couldn't take up.

Posted by Koh Wee Kiat > 2017-06-10 08:49 | Report Abuse

I don forsee any chances merging maybank and affin bank as no synergy if take over them..

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-10 09:42 | Report Abuse

It's not for Maybank to decide, it's up to 1MO. Affin doesn't fit well with Alliance, Hong Leong or Public Bank. Since RHB is merging with AmBank there only leaves Maybank and CIMB.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-10 09:47 | Report Abuse

Affin has strong stockbrokering and unit trust/funds management units under Hwang-Affin which Maybank lacks.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-10 10:15 | Report Abuse

SAD SITUATION AS DESCRIBED BY VIEW POINTS ABOVE. BUT MAY HAVE TO AGREE WITH THEM. THESE REASONS COULD EXPLAIN THE UNDER-PERFORMANCE OF ITS SHARE PRICE DESPITE ITS NTA OF 4.54. THIS BRINGS INTO MY MIND A SIMILAR SAD SITUATION I HAD EXPERIENCED IN ANOTHER SHARE. I HAD REGRETTABLY INVESTED 70% OF MY FUNDS INTO TROPICANA WHICH HAD HIGH NTA (NOW 2.24)AND PAYING REGULAR DIVIDENDS. BUT IT DROPPED FROM 1.80 TWO YEARS AGO TO BECOME A PENNY STOCK AT 0.965 AND LANGUISHED BELOW PAR FOR A LONG TIME. EVERY TIME ITS PRICE REBOUND A BIT EVERYBODY THREW. LOST A LOT HERE. VERY FRUSTRATED WITH SHARES HAVING HIGH NTA BUT ITS SHARE PRICES REMAINED UNDERVALUED FOR THE LONGEST TIME. WITH MUCH OF MY FUNDS TIED DOWN LIKE THIS, I MISSED OTHER OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY OTHER SHARES WHICH HAD GONE UP A LOT. MANY WITH 100% TO 300%. HENCE I MAY HAVE TO FACE FACTS AND REALITY NOT TO HAVE TOO MUCH HOPE IN SHARES SELLING AT PRICES WELL BELOW THEIR NTAs.MY BITTER LESSON :- MUST AVOID VALUE TRAPS. MOVE ON TO OTHER COUNTERS

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-10 10:32 | Report Abuse

THE ABOVE SITUATION MAY ALSO EXPLAINED WHY ITS SHARES FAILED TO RALLY DESPITE THE BIG HEADLINES THAT FOREIGN FUNDS ARE BUYING INTO OUR BANKING SECTORS. BUT THEY ONLY BUY OTHER BANK SHARES LIKE MAYBANK PUBLIC BANK, CIMB RHB. AND WORST. EPF KEPT SELLING. FINALLY AND NOW AFTER DEEPER THOUGHTS, I MAY HAVE TO FOLLOW SUCH SMART MONEY FUND MANAGERS. SAD. ( ABOVE ALL MY PERSONAL VIEW POINTS AND MY OWN UNHAPPY INVESTING EXPERIENCES. JUST TO ILLUSTRATE THE IMPORTANT INVESTING PRINCIPLE WHICH I HAD JUST LEARNT AND HAVE TO ACCEPT: "AVOID VALUE TRAPS" )

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-10 12:12 | Report Abuse

Darrenliew, your problem is you appear to concentrate your investment on two or three counters. You need to diversify as different counters move at different timing.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-10 14:42 | Report Abuse

TRUE THAT MY OVER CONCENTRATION ON TOO FEW COUNTERS IS A BAD STRATEGY. BUT MANY ARE ATTRACTED TO UNDERVALUED SHARES PREMISED ON THEIR MARGIN OF SAFETY. HENCE EVEN IF I WERE TO DIVERSIFY N EXPAND MY PORTFOLIO TO 8 COUNTERS I CAN STILL BE BOGGED DOWN IF MY SELECTIONS INCLUDE MAINLY UNDERVALUED SHARES BASED ON THEIR CURRENT PRICES AGAINST THEIR NTAs.
HENCE FROM NOW ON I WILL NOT GIVE TOO MUCH IMPORTANCE TO NTAs. BESIDES ANALYSTS DO (AND THEY ARE RIGHT TO DO SO) ASSIGN BIGGER DISCOUNTS TO NTAs BASED ON THEIR KNOWLEDGE ON THEIR FACTUALLY POORER QUALITY OF THEIR NTAs i.e. SUCH NTAs COMPRISED LOW QUALITY ASSETS . NOW AFTER A FURTHER STUDY OF UOBKAYHIAN REPORT SHOWED THEY GAVE A PRICE TO BOOK RATIO (P/B) OF ONLY 0.55x TO AFFIN'S NTA TO ARRIVE AT ITS FAIR VALUE PRICE OF 2.55 FOR AFFIN.
HENCE ITS NOT A GIVEN THAT IN ANY BANK MERGERS OR TAKEOVERS (IF THIS EVER HAPPENS AT ALL AS KOH WEE KIAT HAD RIGHTLY OPINIONED ON ITS UNLIKELIHOOD DUE TO LACK OF FINANCIAL SYNERGIES) THAT A P/B OF 1x WILL BE USED. THIS IS A INVESTMENT PRINCIPLE I HAD NOW PICKED UP WHICH IS NOT TO TAKE ANY NTAs AS GOSPEL TRUTH. ALWAYS NEED TO APPLY APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT FACTOR.
IN PRACTICE NOT EASY TO TOTALLY AVOID "VALUE TRAP" COUNTERS. BUT MY LEARNING NOW IS THAT IF UNFORTUNATE TO BUY SUCH COUNTERS THEN ITS BETTER NOT TO CONTINUE TO HOLD THEM FOREVER. MY CASE IN POINT IS MY TROPICANA

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-06-10 15:08 | Report Abuse

GOOD INVESTMENT GURUS HAD ALWAYS ADVISED US TO REGULARLY REVIEW OUR PORTFOLIOS.TO ADJUST THEM AND TAKE HARD DECISIONS EARLY TO AVOID MORE PAIN LATER ON. I FAILED TO FOLLOW SUCH TEACHINGS AND I PAID HEAVILY FOR MY TROPICANA. ITS SHARE PRICE JUST FAILED TO RECOVER AT ALL EVEN IN THE MIDST OF OUR CURRENT STRONG BULLISH MARKETS

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-10 16:11 | Report Abuse

Tropicana will shoot up when you least expect it to. Trust me. Its turn will come. Last year I accumulated a lot of OSKVI shares at prices ranging from 45 down to 40 sen, ended up with an average cost of 43.2 sen. I think the high for last year was 46 sen. OSKVI was undervalued because the cash backing per share is already above 50 sen, and is debt free with NTA above 90 sen. Last month after impressive QR with EPS of 7,47 sen, the shares went gap up and hit 80 sen. I eventually sold at 78.5 sen for more than 80% gain, also received 2 sen dividend. OSKVI has not gone above 60 sen for over five years. Despite that I had faith in it because it was so undervalued at below 45 sen.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-10 23:47 | Report Abuse

TheContrarian, you seem to be present in many counters. You must have wide-ranging holdings in many stocks, I suppose.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 00:14 | Report Abuse

Only a dozen or so, I try to invest in at least a counter in every sector for diversification purpose. I have completely exited some like Malton(40% gain) PUC(60% gain) Ancom(40% gain) ,OSKVI(80% gain) Masteel (20% gain.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-11 00:26 | Report Abuse

But, it seems that your weightage on financial or related ones.
By the way, you are out of hospital now.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 07:00 | Report Abuse

When I liquidated the counters I listed above I used part of the proceeds to add on Affin-CV and Insas-WB when there were price corrections. Actually I did sell down 1/3 of my Affin-CV @ 77 sen. That morning I was in the hospital for a routine heart checkup.

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2017-06-11 08:09 | Report Abuse

From your easy going and generous sharing of investing views and comments, I take it that you must have been trading for many years and also well-versed with financial and economic systems.

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-06-11 10:22 | Report Abuse

Yes, since 1993 and for the past 17 years I have never lost in the stock market. This year's bull run is a once in a decade opportunity to make huge gains. That's why I don't sell in a hurry.