My back-of-envelope calculation of 2021 mine profit:
Tin-in-concentrates:
RHT output 2500t (2288t in 2019) SLT output 1200t*0.8 (80% stake of about 1200t p.a. when it ceased op in the 80s) Total output = 3460t assume 75% yield (70-75% average for SEA according to Britainica) from tin-in-concentrates to refined tin, Refined tin from own mines = 2595t
all-in-cost of own tin production = USD15k.
If price holds at USD23k on avg for 2021, mining profit alone wud be as follows:
2595 * (25000-15000) * 4 = RM83.0m b4 tax
Those who know the flaw of my assumptions, pls point out so that I can refine my calculations.
I don't know how to calculate the smelting operation's profit. Those who know pls show.
Those who know how to calculate the future property development profit from JV with Strait Trading on MSC's existing land pls enlighten us on that. My gut feel says it is going to be huge.
New plant capacity may not be adequate given more users leading to higher prices inducing higher mining n thus more refining. This means butterworth plant closure may be delayed
Back in 2008 the share price is traded at rm2.11. with the tin price increase so much I think the share price will not drop below rm2.14 which is recently low.
Avg daily production = (10500 + 200)kg or 10.7t Assume 300 days of mining a year, can expect 2021 annual tin-in-concentrates production of 3210t, which translates into 2407.5t of refined tin assuming 75% yield.
Assuming US$:RM exhange rate of 4.0 and avg refined tin px of US$23000/t (about 25,000 currently in terms of spot px) , mining profit alone would be 2407.5 * (23000 - 15000) * 4 or RM77.04m.
A sensitivity analysis can be easily carried out assuming different values of mining days and average spot px.
Smelting profit tends to be fatter on rising tin price presumably driven by inventory profit. I notice end-3Q 20 inventory was huge, meaning likely substantial inventory gain for smelting in the upcoming 4Q20 earnings announcement. 1Q21 smelting profit should be even fatter on accelerated tin price increase.
Malaysia Smelting Corporation is involved on almost all levels of the supply chain, they have better supply chain management and better understanding on product demand and supply
Highly experience management team: CEO Patrick Yong [He founded Sulfarid Technology in 2004 which is believed to be involved in developing and marketing electronic and electrical equipment. He was also the chief operating officer of Tai Kwang Yokohama which is an active player in the battery market. Although not explicitly quoted to him, I believe the company's perspective on the future of battery for EV industry is an idea of his. Similarly, the CFO has 25 years experience with MSC while COO Raveentiran has been in this industry for 25 years.]
The company have Impressive customer portfolio such as Toyota Corporation, Japan, Hanwha Corporation and LG International, Korean , Chemetall GmbH, JPMorgan Metals and a variety of other customers. The company's customer base primarily consists of electronic manufacturers, commodities brokers, London Metal Exchange and Kuala Lumpur Tin Market.
mulai esok, msc akan mencuba harga tertinggi sebelumnya 2.59 ringgit dan hasilnya akan keluar selepas 21 februari. saya mencarinya melebihi 3 ringgit dan mencecah 5 ringgit menjelang April 2021. beli dan tahan
cg14134, why your yearly production so low??? where you get this figure from? As what the CEO mentioned, the Prai plant produced about 2+k tonne per year, while new plant in Pulau Indah shall able to produce 40k tonne + maximum can shot up to 60k tonne if demand needed.
Malaysia Smelting Corporation's main business activities take place in their plant located in Butterworth with a production capacity of approximately 40000 tonnes a year using reverbatory furnace technology.
global semiconductor sales 2016 about USD30B versus below:
WASHINGTON—Feb. 1, 2021—The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced the global semiconductor industry sales were $439.0 billion in 2020, an increase of 6.5% compared to the 2019 total of $412.3 billion
Dalpinia, my numbers relate to own mines only. The smelting vol is of course much higher, but the margin is much smaller - single digit + inventory gain/loss (depending on direction of refined tin px movement)
According to the Edge article, RHT daily avg production vol is 10,500kg/day and SLT 100-200kg/day. Numbers not mine, only calculations mine, which could be off of course!
Smelting profit would be huge in 4Q20 on inventory gain, and even bigger in 1Q21. However, how much to incorporate into future share price gain is debatable as it may not be sustainable year-in-year-out.
Share price will definitely go up, perhaps to 3.50-4.00? Gua pun tak tahu!
It should be worth 5 ringgit once the results come out next week We have not even factored in the butterworth land Add another 5-10 ringgit for the land jv Hold MSC until 2023/24 Should see close to 10-15 ringgit
Inventory @ end-3Q20 = RM532.5m on refined tin px of US$17463/t Assuming similar vol of inventory @ end-4Q20, inventory gain = (20540/17463-1)*532.5 = RM93.8m for 4Q20.
A similar vol of inventory @ end-1Q21 assuming end-1Q21 refined tin price of US$25000/t would give an inventory gain of (25000/20540-1)(532.5*20540/17463) = RM136.0m for 1Q21.
End-Qtr price based on LME tin cash px.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Xxxting
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Posted by Xxxting > 2021-02-10 13:50 | Report Abuse
Bought in 2.20*