I agree with your inventory gains valuation It will be inside accounting This is called beautiful accounting But of course if Tin price is to down in 2 years time then inventory valuation also go down However, this next 2 years should be very good tin pricing
We are certainly breaking 3 ringgit in no time. Next target I am aiming 5 ringgit
1Q21 profit = 77/4 + 136 = RM155m (B4 tax) even if I assume zero smelting margin so long as refined tin px stays at US$25,000 till end-1Q21. Ki Siaw Lio!
Tin price shot up crazy now. Tomorrow msc price might go crazy up. Next week results out should be already 3 ringgit plus maybe even 4 ringgit . Hold tight tight
Tin prices surged to above $24,800 per tonne for the first time since January 2013, supported by higher demand for electric vehicles, growth in US home building, and as remote working boosted demand for computers and other electronic devices. Demand is also surging in China, which is stockpiling the metal to meet its goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductors. Recently, a global shortage of empty shipping containers also disrupted the flow of refined tin. According to the International Tin Association, the global market has been in a supply deficit for the last three years. There is room for further upside momentum as the near-term supply gap can only come from expansion or revival of existing mines given the time it takes to get a permit for and dig a new mine.
At one stage in London trading overnight, the cash spot price was up US$5,000 per tonne (/t) in just that session and briefly got above US$30,500, a move described in reports from London as “short squeezing”.
At session’s close, the cash price for the metal was US$29,625/t, up US$4,280 (or 16.8%), while the three-month price ended at US$24,385/t, a gain of US$735 (up 3.1%).
That is a backwardation of US$5,420/t, a dramatic sign that the supply-demand situation is under enormous strain as buyers tie up physical metal for immediate delivery.
It is the greatest gap between cash and three-month prices in 30 years.
Tin-related stocks on the ASX saw good gains as trading opened on Tuesday morning.
This development comes against a background of reports that China is stockpiling tin as part of its plan to become self-sufficient in semiconductors.
Tin stocks at London Metal Exchange warehouses on Monday stood 1,340 tonnes.
A note from Vivek Dhar at Commonwealth Bank this morning makes the point that spot prices are still 12% below their high recorded in April 2011.
“Supply is simply struggling to keep up with demand,” Mr Dhar added.
“The metal usually attracts less attention than its base metal peers because of its low liquidity.
“However, investor interest is growing, particularly in China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange,” he said.
A bit of calculations to shiok sendiri, assuming avg refined tin px of USD25000/t for 1Q21 and end-1Q21 px of US$27000/t, other parameters remain unchanged,
So my estimate $200mil sgd is correct 2021 they will make estimate profits $200mil sgd That’s like 600 mil ringgit Share price should be 10 ringgit minimum Hold tight tight everyone
Its similar to glove story in March 2020, not much institutional came in before explosive first QR after Tin price shot up. We can use Supermx case as example. Supermx was around RM1.2-4 in Feb 2020 (before bonus), then all the way shot to RM23+ highest on 6th Aug 2020.
We shall see MSC moving this direction to RM20+ in Aug 2021!!!
Yes I second that MSC very similar to gloves story Initially no volume and no one keen Then exploded Let’s break 3 ringgit tomorrow and then after results we go 5 ringgit first
the main difference between Supermx & MSC would be glove is covid's essiential needs which last about 1 year, but MSC demand just started for EVs, Semiconductors & Solar sectors which is just booming end of 2020, will kick start 2021 to 2030. Tin was USD32,975 on 12th Apr 2011 without EVs and Solar booming, as well as semiconductors shortage. So, 2021 shall able to break USD32,975 and create a new record to USD40k per tonne!!!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Creativeteam
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Posted by Creativeteam > 2021-02-15 13:34 | Report Abuse
Thank for info. Need to buy more