Today's cabinet meeting - Government wants banks to loosen lending rules for small businesses and first-time home buyers. https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/428526
The new government has indicated a few times that they together with Bank Negara will look into ways to increase housing loan amounts to especially the first time purchasers.
More than 10 years ago, companies are allowed and encouraged to revalue their landbanks. Therefore, the NTA would reflect the actual market values of the landbanks. However, the subsequent FRS (Financial Reporting Standards) by Bursa requires the landbanks to be carried at cost. This new requirements is suitable for companies who bought lands for immediate developments like SDB, Hua Yang, MCT, Thriven and Sunsuria.
However, there are some companies that bought their development landbanks and keep them for a long time, between 10 years to as long as 40 years in some cases. The NTA in this type of companies is grossly underestimated. As the NTA does not show the true picture of the company, the financial analysts then create a new term for the actual NTA when the current market values of the properties are calculated. They name it RNAV (Revised Net Asset Values). In fact, the RNAV is actually the NTA of the development companies.
I would say Bursa has set the wrong FRS and enable the property counters to grossly underestimate their NTAs and hence artificially suppress the share price of the property counters. The major shareholders are very happy with this because they can buy back the shares from the market either in their personal capacities or company share buybacks at very low price. That is the reason that there were so many privatisations taken place in these few years in property counters.
This includes Hunza, OSK Property, PJ Dev, Wing Tai and a few more. The two ongoing mandatory general offers are TA and TAGB. The major shareholders are taking advantage of the wrong situations and ignorant of the general retail shareholders. If Bursa Malaysia does not revise the FRS and corrects the situations, more and more companies will be privatised. The counters that fall into this catogery are E&O, MKH, Paramount, Oriental, TA, TAGB, KSL, Tropicana and some others.
Many of the retail investors do not have the financial knowledge and are fooled by the wrong situations. For me, I am equipped with the financial knowledge and many years of experience in Bursa to witness and realise the wrong development took place.
Undervalue stock,final quatar “saville cheras property will hand over,Hillpark Shah Alam maple will hand over too and palm 延迟进账的会在last quatar 放映。。。I think Kajang East also good take up rate .....
... and the 10 acres land in China converted to property investment status ... plus borrowings are being liquidated ... Indonesia operations are now cash generation ... plus take-over target ... BUT the share price still drops
Good level to aggressively share buyback .. benefit all. Now Quah should ahead of the curve call TP RM1.00 (not met never mind lah since his call all along not met).
MKH should be another beneficiary of the coming budget. MKH has quite many projects that fall under the affordable category especially two of them are under PRIMA. Incentives will be announced for the affordable housing sector in the coming budget.
In this week's TheEdge, The MD said that MKH is one of the biggest TOD developers in the market. MKH has land near to 7 MRT or KTM Station. MKH has lands near to Titiwangsa, Batu 11 Cheras, Sungai Jernih, Kajang Stadium, Kajang MRT stations. It also has lands near to Kajang 2 and Nilai KTM Komuter stations. I think MKH could actually be the biggest TOD developer in Malaysia.
4Q18 result (ending september) should be higher than last year mainly driven by the plantation division from higher production and sales of palm oil products.
Hopefully the property development and construction division would also make a rebound from the 3Q18 low backed by the RM999mil unlbilled sales as of Jun 2018.
Major shareholder and the company itself have been aggressively buying the shares from open market starting from the RM1.40 level which show that the current price is considered undervalue by company's insider. This provide a firm support level of share price at RM1.20.
Can anyone provide a target PATAMI for FY 2019? I have target PATAMI of around around RM88mil assuming the plantation production level maintains at the current year average and CPO price average at around RM2000 per tonne. Assuming also a better revenue and profit generation from progressive billings of existing projects. At the current market cap, it would value the company at around 8.3x fwd PE.
Please take note that the average PATAMI for the company in the past 5 years has always been higher than RM100mil. But mostly it is dependent on the property development and construction division.
You seem to have a lot of knowledge about the company.
I am currently rereading the 2017 annual report of MKH. In the management discussion they mentioned that one of the reason for the lower rev and pbt of property development & construction is due to the tail end phase of some of the project (which include handover of vacant possession).
I had always assume that at the tail end of a property project, companies profit margin would be higher (especially during handover of vacant possession) as there will be lower cost incurred.
4Q18 (end sept) should show growth because of better performance from the plantation division. But this all depends on the Forex. IDR has actually weaken a lot if compared to RM and USD for period between July to Sept 2018. That being said i still think the group will show good PATAMI vs last year's result.
4Q18 PATAMI between RM15mil to RM20mil. Do you agree?
I think plantation sector will post a minor gain due to lower cpo selling price (despite higher ffb output) and weak rupiah against usd. but hopefully more unbilled sales propertise can be recognised to boost up in the coming quarter result.
I think they still can record a commendable profit for 4Q18 based on their performance on 3Q18. The biggest risk to profit for me is the weak rupiah rather than the lower selling price of CPO. Hopefully there are no longer any delay in the progress of Hill Park Shah Alam.
Dividends are normally announce in 1Q result (in Feb) and paid in 2Q.
Average CPO price for 4Q18 (jul - sep) was around RM2100 - 2200 per MT. Hence why i think that the plantation division profit contribution should still be above RM10mil.
However for 1Q19, i might be a bit worried. The CPO price tumble last week to RM1,716/MT on thursday which was the lowest since 2008. Hopefully it will rebound back soon.
@commonsense, I supposed that the tail end phase that the management refers to is the construction progress where most of the physical work has been completed but before the handover to the buyers. During this phase, the developer and contractor are doing the touch-up work, arranging Bomba testing and applying for other authority approvals.
You are right, usually there will be a higher profit being booked after the handover of the units to the buyers.
@commonsense, it is very hard to predict the quarterly profits unless we follow the site progress and site progress claim ourselves. I am not working in MKH, therefore I do not know. However, MKH management predicts that the profits for the next year will be good because the site progress will be faster and sales will be better.
As we are expecting properties going to be OK, the plantation segment is not likely to perform. CPO around RM2K and don't know how much for the fair value adjustment in Indonesia operations in the coming report.
Company is cheap so it's good to see the insiders are buying. It's also a final Q so it will be bundled with dividends. Hopefully 0.05-0.06.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Aero1
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Posted by Aero1 > 2018-06-06 15:16 | Report Abuse
Today's cabinet meeting - Government wants banks to loosen lending rules for small businesses and first-time home buyers. https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/428526