Posted by ellyna riduwan > 2012-09-07 12:10 | Report Abuse

too bad

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 15:03 | Report Abuse

Date Vol(Lots) Close
4-12-2012 500 3.350
3-12-2012 180 3.320
30-11-2012 125 3.320
29-11-2012 145 3.330
28-11-2012 52 3.350
27-11-2012 506 3.330
26-11-2012 318 3.360
23-11-2012 55 3.350
22-11-2012 45 3.360
21-11-2012 105 3.360
19-11-2012 87 3.350
16-11-2012 73 3.400
14-11-2012 326 3.400
9-11-2012 155 3.350
8-11-2012 10 3.350
7-11-2012 150 3.380
6-11-2012 330 3.390
5-11-2012 95 3.340
Date Vol(Lots) Close
1-11-2012 80 3.320
31-10-2012 141 3.320
30-10-2012 40 3.330
29-10-2012 77 3.330
25-10-2012 20 3.300
24-10-2012 10 3.300
23-10-2012 206 3.300
22-10-2012 72 3.300
19-10-2012 158 3.310
18-10-2012 60 3.320
17-10-2012 43 3.300
16-10-2012 317 3.330
15-10-2012 335 3.290
12-10-2012 660 3.280
11-10-2012 548 3.290
10-10-2012 180 3.300
9-10-2012 200 3.310
8-10-2012 434 3.310
5-10-2012 599 3.300
Date Vol(Lots) Close
4-10-2012 1147 3.280
3-10-2012 620 3.250
2-10-2012 212 3.270
1-10-2012 820 3.250
28-9-2012 99 3.230
27-9-2012 28 3.200
26-9-2012 70 3.230
25-9-2012 600 3.220
24-9-2012 90 3.170
20-9-2012 30 3.200
19-9-2012 33 3.200
18-9-2012 643 3.220
14-9-2012 562 3.210
13-9-2012 140 3.170
12-9-2012 188 3.150
11-9-2012 139 3.120
10-9-2012 262 3.160
7-9-2012 100 3.160
6-9-2012 486 3.160

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 15:24 | Report Abuse

by fat cat

APOLLO 6432
YEARS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

REVENUE
$154,272.00_ $181,144.00_ $175,337.00_ $159,531.00_ $176,292.00

NET PROFIT/LOSS
$24,554.00_ $20,974.00_ $20,918.00_ $24,677.00_ $17,855.00

PROFIT MARGIN % 15.92 11.58 11.93 15.47 10.13

________________

no growth = bad

profit margin up and down = bad

even ypspah got more sales growth than this roti business...

roti business..i hardly see any futurein it, i cant remember when is the last time i bought apollo roti...

ok.. but there is also good things about apollo, high dividend payout, low debt.

you might be content with the 6% dividend, but what if the revenue and profit decline?

conclusion: it is always a bad idea buying a stagnant business.

:D have a nice day.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 15:24 | Report Abuse

Balance sheet, what do you see in it?

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-12-05 15:31 | Report Abuse

YEARS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

DOE $0.13 $0.11 $0.12 $0.12 $0.12



and i don't look more into detail after i see the revenue profit, it doesnt interest me so normally i wont waste any more time on it.

hahaha.. but if you want tips, food and beverages sector, power roots is a strong buy, i highly recommend it :p

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 15:36 | Report Abuse

pwroots, tongkat ali coffee is it? MLM?
why recommend, write in short, cukup

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-12-05 15:41 | Report Abuse

it is not mlm, you can buy the coffee at almost any grocery shop

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 15:56 | Report Abuse

kcchong, dont go back to your pen, bursa got one hour more to go.
few mosquitos here.

apollo got lots of distributable reserves, right?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-05 16:08 | Report Abuse

Both of you fei mau and tony got your financials wrong, I think. Go check again. Anyway I still think apollo is interesting because growth may be reemerging. But to do a thorough study, I need time. Right now let me get my sheep back to the home from the foothills first.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-05 16:10 | Report Abuse

fei mau, check each of your financial year ending and their figures. You may have mixed up with the fiscal year.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 16:19 | Report Abuse

hehhehe, baa baa black sheep
come to think of it I have seen any black sheep

Posted by benjamin > 2012-12-05 16:52 | Report Abuse

I agree with kkchong. The revenue was flatish last 3 yrs. Before that , there were yrly increment with new installation of machines and new product lines and more oversea export. But last 3 yrs the comp. was abit flat with revenue not increasing with new competitions, Julie and the like. but the yr end 2012 , the revenue pick up about 12% without additional operating expenses.Current asset, cash same old 56m, current liabilities same old , no debts.EPS 27 up 20ish percent. So it is getting interesting.What is attractive about Apollo is the Div.9 %.Revenue picking up slightly 1qrt 2013.Could be interesting to keep track. Just my 1 sen worth.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 16:57 | Report Abuse

Ben, I like the reserves la.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 16:59 | Report Abuse

Ben, I like the reserves la, based on my cursory exam of the BS balance sheet, not bull shit.

Same with oriental and kpj (a coffin stock then at 3.70 - 4.00), which I saw some years ago

Posted by benjamin > 2012-12-05 17:51 | Report Abuse

Yes tonylim, that and the cash is worth a 1:1 bonus issue lah. But that does not mean a thing, only for the opportunity to goreng the stock.Orietal is the same,but tons better. I thought it could wait while I park my money elsewhere.That was when it was 4rm!!!My brother said it is a dead horse and sold it. The bull was raging and I was distracted eslewhere. Never got back. But my returns were good. That evens things out. Will wait.Thinking the cash itself was rm4 per share and the share was linguishing around 4rm + . The only thing that was negative then was the business side when it lost its franchise of Honda.There are other assets like land etc.Waiting.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 19:05 | Report Abuse

ya ben, i should make the correction..

APOLLO 6432
YEARS 2007 - 2011*

REVENUE
$154,272.00_ $181,144.00_ $175,337.00_ $159,531.00_ $176,292.00

NET PROFIT/LOSS
$24,554.00_ $20,974.00_ $20,918.00_ $24,677.00_ $17,855.00

PROFIT MARGIN % 15.92 11.58 11.93 15.47 10.13

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-05 20:13 | Report Abuse

tonylim, for you I worked until so late (1.12am here) to come up with a valuation for Apollo. Here is it.
First of all, I like consumer food business. Apollo has a good business with a very healthy balance sheet and consistent good cash flows. The only question is whether Apollo’s business has good earnings and any growth potential. The following table shows the performance of Apollo in the last 7 years.
Year 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Revenue 200548 176292 159531 175337 181144 154272 142370
EBIT 28593 22578 32249 25442 24363 30105 26365
NI 21741 17855 24678 20918 20973 24554 20761
EPS,sen 27.18 22.32 30.85 26.15 26.22 30.69 25.95
Profit margin 10.8% 10.1% 15.5% 11.9% 11.6% 15.9% 14.6%
ROE 10.1% 8.6% 12.1% 11.1% 11.8% 14.4% 12.9%
*Value in thousands
It can be seen that revenue grew moderately at a rate of 6% a year from 2006 to 2012. Net profit however has been flattish. If we were to base on these data to value Apollo, I would say Apollo is fully valued at the close of RM3.33 per share today.
Graham valuation would give a value of 0.272*(8.5+2*6%)*4.4/4.0=RM2.58. Basing on average ROE, another valuation would be 12%/10%*2.69=RM3.23. Where 8.5 is the PE ratio, 4.0is the long-term MGS rate, 6% is the growth rate, 10% is my required return and 2.69 is the NAB of Apollo.
However, if you look carefully at its last four quarters’ performance, one can see clearly that revenue and profit has been increasing steadily quarter on quarter. For the first quarter 2013 results, revenue and net profit has improved by 19% and 151% respectively on increased turnover and cost cutting.
Basing on the earnings before interest and tax for the trailing twelve month of 34.4 m, the assumptions of 10% required return and a growth rate of 8% for the next 5 years and 3% subsequently; a discount cash flows analysis shows that Apollo’s ordinary business is worth RM3.84 per share. Adding the excess cash of 71 sen, the intrinsic value of Apollo is RM4.55 or a margin of safety of 27% over its RM3.33 share price today.
The question is if the 8% growth rate is reasonable. It is in my opinion basing on its last 4 quarters of performance. If not what happen? Then the valuation is wrong, obviously.

This is a rush job. Hope to have critical comments from anyone.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 20:37 | Report Abuse

Ben,
But the par is RM1-00, wink wink

"Yes tonylim, that and the cash is worth a 1:1 bonus issue lah. But that does not mean a thing, only for the opportunity to goreng the stock. Orietal is the same,but tons better"

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 20:42 | Report Abuse

Ben, That price must be a decade ago, right.
Wait a minute, when I enter market last July, I saw the price kinda crash from RM8.80 to low of 8.00 right. That put me off.

Purebull is also watching this counter.


Posted by benjamin > Dec 5, 2012 05:51 PM | Report Abuse

Yes tonylim, that and the cash is worth a 1:1 bonus issue lah. But that does not mean a thing, only for the opportunity to goreng the stock.Orietal is the same,but tons better. I thought it could wait while I park my money elsewhere.That was when it was 4rm!!!My brother said it is a dead horse and sold it. The bull was raging and I was distracted eslewhere. Never got back. But my returns were good. That evens things out. Will wait.Thinking the cash itself was rm4 per share and the share was linguishing around 4rm + . The only thing that was negative then was the business side when it lost its franchise of Honda.There are other assets like land etc.Waiting.

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 20:46 | Report Abuse

kcchong, tq
btw I failed my cfa in 1992 distracted by the stock market.kekeke

Posted by benjamin > 2012-12-05 21:15 | Report Abuse

Yes tonylimRM1 par. Paid up capital 80ml!!!! Small no. of share. Wink wink.Only takes 3 so yrs to earn among equivalent to their paid up!!!

Posted by tonylim > 2012-12-05 21:48 | Report Abuse

Must kick the cfo a kick in the butt

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-22 13:31 | Report Abuse

this tonylim must have made a bundle in Apollo. The last two quarterly results really shine. see, no cfa also can fat tat. dinner on you?

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-12-22 13:37 | Report Abuse

apollo is nice, but if i have to choose one between nestle , dlady , fnn , appollo , ofi etc etc, i will choose pwroots :p and i did :D and it proved a good decision.

i remember last time i eating apollo, the roti is so sweet until i got this toothache, jaw-breaking feeling, so no.. im still not going buy appollo lol.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2012-12-22 13:47 | Report Abuse

fei mau, I have looked into Apollo the last time your "best" friend tonylim asked me to. It is really good. The last quarterly result also surprised me on the up side. Yeah, business wise Nestle, dutch lady, fnn etc may be better and more established. But it is the valuation i am talking about. It is really good value. Remember this, a good company is not necessary a good investment. A bad company may also may not be a bad investment. It all depend on the price you pay, or rather what is the present value of its future expected cash flows compared to its price. Agree?

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-12-22 14:13 | Report Abuse

yes, im agree :p

Posted by tonylim > 2013-03-15 11:26 | Report Abuse

.

Posted by Tiger > 2013-03-15 11:47 | Report Abuse

AHHAAHA

Posted by tonylim > 2013-03-15 12:16 | Report Abuse

you made some money, dude

Posted by tonylim > 2013-03-30 15:48 | Report Abuse

.

Posted by 卓 依婷 > 2013-04-01 16:48 | Report Abuse

不错的点心

Posted by Desmond Goh Kok Seng > 2013-04-05 12:12 | Report Abuse

good stock :)

Posted by patricksim53 > 2013-07-12 21:13 | Report Abuse

Yeah. They are spot on. Targeting children's market. Paying consistent good dividends at 20sen (5% return). Don't mind keeping it long term.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-12 21:18 | Report Abuse

Yea

Posted by Scorpion > 2013-07-12 21:54 | Report Abuse

is their dividend all tax exempted ?

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-12 22:01 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annent/6432.jsp

Posted by patricksim53 > 2013-07-12 22:49 | Report Abuse

Yea, it's single tier dividends. That means exempted from tax.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-12 22:54 | Report Abuse

syiok,, every year 20%.
donkey years ago, it used to be 10%, guess the company recognise inflation too. LOL

Posted by patricksim53 > 2013-07-12 23:18 | Report Abuse

Their FY Net Profit ending 30 April 2013 was RM32.08 million (up 47.55%), Low PE of 10.22 and high EPS 40.11 its performance looks superb. With distributable retained earnings of RM122 million against a Paid Up Capital of RM80 million, it can well afford to declare a 1 for 1 bonus. Personally, my benchmark for shares are low PE of 10 and below and EPS of minimum 20 before I ever consider taking a look at their financial account.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-13 00:22 | Report Abuse

patrick, greaaat to be choosy.
did you buy at 320/30? Hardly can buy a few lots in a day

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-13 00:59 | Report Abuse

Many FAs tell me no value added from bonus issues. They often forget about share liquidity and market participants. As a share holder better liquidity helps. Kpj n Tdm is a case in point.

Posted by necro > 2013-07-13 01:09 | Report Abuse

in case of TDM let watch closely before n after ELECTION in TERENGANU this 20th JULY

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-13 15:43 | Report Abuse

What extra value does it have when a whole cake is cut into two halves, or four quarters?

Bonus issue capitalized the reserve or retained earnings. It increases the share capital but at the same time reduces the reserve or retained earnings, while equity remains exactly the same.

Increased liquidity? How? Say for example Apollo's business worth RM4.00 per share and it is trading at its intrinsic value. So it is better to give one for one bonus issues so that it is traded at RM2.00 and more people can buy 1000 shares for RM2,000? But initially why can't people buy 500 shares of Apollo at RM4.00, also with RM2000?

Can value be created out of nothing?

Yeah I know I know, investors would probably chase the price of the share up when bonus issues is declared. That is because they believe something can be created from nothing. Do you?

The danger for ordinary investor chasing this theme is before the bonus issue is announced, insiders would have long ago bought the share and it is probably the right time for them to take profit at the expense of somebody, you know who.

Just my thought.

Posted by patricksim53 > 2013-07-13 18:41 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz increased liquidity through bonus issue? I say it is not so. It is increasing the amount of shares in the market so that more people can buy the share and let sentiments dictate its pricing. More shares in the market means more leeway for the price to move. Remember the story about owning Genting Bhd share when it started years ago. How much would you have made now if you had owned 1 lot then?

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-14 00:54 | Report Abuse

Reduction in par value from 1.00 to 20 sen. Go figure out.

Posted by patricksim53 > 2013-07-14 07:23 | Report Abuse

Correct. That's also another way of creating more shares.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-14 08:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by tonylim > Jul 14, 2013 12:54 AM | Report Abuse
Reduction in par value from 1.00 to 20 sen. Go figure out.

That is a share split of 5 shares from 1 share. What value has it created? EPS and NTA is shared by 5 shares instead of one share now. Absolutely nothing except pay some money to carry out the exercise, from shareholders' own pocket. A value destroyer.

So if I have RM4,000 and I want to invest in Apollo the company, instead of buying 1000 shares at 4.00, I buy 5000 shares at RM800 per share.

I am not disputing that the market will react positively and chase up the share price. That is a human bias, nothing in value creation of a company. But somehow the investor will realize it the share price will most likely revert back to the mean.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-14 13:53 | Report Abuse

I mean genting. From 1.00 to 50 sen.From 50 sen to what? 10 sen?
Was there any fall in wealth? I am not sure but kpj gained wealth to shareholders cos I still hold some.

In yr own words, ARent FA using rear wing mirrors instead of forward periscopic views.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-14 15:42 | Report Abuse

If the share price of a company is 1.00 before its share is split 2 from 1, its share price must be adjusted to 50 sen, because its earnings, net tangible asset etc is shared by double the number of shares. Buying any price above 50 sen is not a wise move.

The share price may go up slowly say to 60 sen in 6 months time. That is not because value is created by the exercise of share split. that is because its business is doing better, expected to earn 20% more in its income the following year. Or may be before the exercise, nobody notice that it was undervalued by 20%.

The share price may very well go down to 40 sen also. That is also not because the share split destroys value, but mainly because it is expected that the earnings is going to drop by 20%.

Of course for a big company like Genting doing this exercise, a few million spend on the corporate exercise won't hurt it so much. But for an ACE company, a few million spent for this fruitless exercise can make a significant dent on its balance sheet, hence I say can be a value destroyer.

Go check this company EAH to see how its adjusted share price dropped significantly some time after the exercise.

Yeah this is also nothing to do using rear wing mirrors or forward periscope view or not, or using FA or TA, or no A.

Posted by patricksim53 > 2013-07-14 15:45 | Report Abuse

If we were to calculate from a mathematically point of view we will definitely get a variance from the actual outcome because it's all about market sentiments and also correct timing. Take the recent case of Eastland, many people got burnt!! Hope you are not one of them. Follow your game plan and don't blame others if the outcome is not what you expected.