before crude oil price collapsed and Puncak no longer shariah compliant, Puncak was between 3.30 - 3.50 when Azmin delayed the consolidation. Wonder if we can reach this level again given agreement?!? And once restructuring is completed, wonder if Puncak will cross its earlier peak of 3.74 to between 3.80 - 4.20 to reflect its other businesses besides cash hoard of 3.70?!?
Selangor water woes and puncak is somewhat two separate issues mixed together at the moment. Many ppl are also worried about puncak decision today because this is the deadline for extension. No one knows exactly how rozali will decide so a lot of ppl take profit first.
There should no problem for Puncak to grant further extension after today lapse. Rozali already state that he will meet Azmin to sort out outstanding condition precedent to fulfill SPA.
The Federal and Selangor State Governments signed a supplementary agreement on the proposed consolidation of the state’s water industry last Friday. This, in our view, helps to overcome the final hurdle for Puncak to dispose of its water-related assets and operations. Upgrade to BUY with a higher TP of MYR3.80 (37% upside).
Salient details. The supplementary agreement was to complement the water restructuring master agreement signed initially on 12 Sep 2014. Official details are scant at this juncture. KiniBiz, however, reported that this new agreement essentially allows the proposed consolidation to be implemented without the Selangor State Government (SSG) giving up its land , while complying with the requirements of the Water Services Industry Act 2006. We believe this ultimately implies that the SSG will claim ownership of the land assets, on which the Semenyih and Bukit Nanas water treatment plants are currently situated.
Final hurdle sorted out. We are glad to finally see light at the end of the tunnel after eight years of protracted negotiations. With the duos having sorted out all their differences, we believe Puncak Niaga’s (Puncak)proposed disposal of its water-related assets and operations will be finalised in due course. According to the supplementary agreement, the exercise will have to be completed within the next 60 days.
Other implications. On a side note, our channel checks indicate that the Federal Government and the SSG could soon revive the shelved takeover of Syarikat Pengeluar Air Selangor (SPLASH) to complete the state’s water sector restructuring. We believe this could imply an improved offer for SPLASH’s existing shareholders Gamuda (GAM MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR5.35) and Kumpulan Perangsang Selangor (KUPS MK, NR), which hold a 40% and 30% stake respectively in the unit.
Earnings revision. In view of the continued weakness in global crude oil prices, we take the opportunity to slash our FY15F-17F EPS by 24-40% by factoring in lower contribution from its MYR1.8bn Package B Pan Malaysia integrated offshore installation contract.
Upgrade to BUY. All in, we are hopeful that the Federal Government and the SSG will expedite the takeover exercise to finally put an end to Puncak’s monetisation of its water assets and operations. As such, we upgrade our call to BUY (from Neutral), and lift our TP to MYR3.80 (from MYR2.61) despite our earnings revision, as we remove the 35% discount previously pegged to Puncak’s SOP valuation.
Be steady. Hold and observe. No basic to panic for Puncak now. Unless Rozali wants to go to Pas Kelatan, Azmin ding dong 10months let Puncak S&P lapse so easily? It is nice deal to State le....any revision is definitely more money to be fork out from state.
If KPS deal is No where in sight (as most ppl think) WHY Azmin is pushing to sign the supplemental contract (even threaten FED with exposure of U-Turn)?? Azmin is a opportunistic he will use Fast Closing of Water Restructuring Contract to launch his leader Image in Pakatan. 60 days is too long for Azmin
some confusion relating to the usage of the land will arise, causing challenges and delays in the future. selangor gets to keep the land but assets will belong to the fed gov . what sort of rights does it have over the assets? will the fed gov need to seek the state's approval for instance, to erect structures & dig up land for pipes ?
Smartly. Don't worry about the Land's issue bcoz you are holding Puncak Shares for 60 days only. Even Puncak after disposing water asset is NOT involved in Land's problem so you not aiming at the right target. The important issue here closed water deal and get paid.
KUALA LUMPUR (July 13): Kenanga Research has maintained their ‘Overweight’ stance on the water sector, with a recommendation for investors to accumulate shares in Puncak Niaga Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) for their special dividend payment of RM1 per fully diluted (fd) shares.
This follows the signing of the supplemental agreement for the water industry restructuring and consolidation of Selangor, Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya last Friday (July 10), which concludes the negotiations of the Selangor State Government (SSG) with the Federal Government.
“This news certainly reinforces our ‘Overweight’ stance on the Water sector,” Kenanga analyst Iqbal Zainal said in a sector update released today.
He also revised Puncak Niaga’s target price (TP) down to RM3.29, from RM3.99 previously, but said it was still an ‘Outperform’ call with a potential upside of 18%.
Although SPLASH was not mentioned in the SSG’s media statement, it was believed the SSG would negotiate with Gamuda and Sweet Water Alliance, SPLASH’s shareholders, after the completion of Puncak Niaga’s SPA to resolve their valuation issues.
Downstream players such as Hiap Teck Venture Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), Engtex Group Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), YLI Holdings Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), George Kent (M) Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), and Jaks Resources Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) are expected to benefit, following the SSG’s announcement that it would focus on improving the water treatment and distribution systems to reduce the Non-Revenue Water (NRW).
Kenaga expected this to benefit pipe makers over the medium-long term, rather than the near term, as they do not foresee the government spending aggressively on replacing water pipes in the near future.
kahhoeng. Don't worry. Big boys are relocating their funds. That is reason i said 3.05 is only possible by Tuesday (if not a few more days--Greece's effect ) Syndicate(s) control price NOT Kenanga's analyst. EPF is the biggest syndicate in town. Pump and Dump can only be activated by Big funds.
Major announcement from Azmin must come within 30 days bcoz EGM is needed for KPS and Gamuda (maybe between 2 weeks). So 60 days time frame is just about right. Price movement after Hari Raya will be a Good indicator for progress report (Cronies getting News from visiting MB's House. )
The SPA with puncak turn unconditional if not today then soon. Because from previous statement only two CPs were not fulfill by the 3rd extension. Transfer of land and also approval from UKAS. I think these two are not issue anymore with the signing of the supplementary agreement.
Roger & Hng33 gave sell order. I buy from 4.00pm Friday and still buying til today. Just previous advise from Roger when ppl sell you buy. In 60 days time I will sell when ppl buys.
Eurozone leaders have reached a "unanimous" agreement after marathon talks over a third bailout for Greece, EU President Donald Tusk has said. He tweeted that a bailout programme was "all ready to go" for Greece, "with serious reforms and financial support". Details of the agreement were not immediately clear. Eurozone leaders have been meeting in Brussels for more than 16 hours. Greece is expected to pass reforms demanded by the eurozone by Wednesday.
still holding. I look at it. Azmin will definitely take over Puncak 1st and he also want fast. Hopefully, happen on tomorrow. Once takeover Puncak, Azmin will have the control of Syabas, the distribution water operator. Syabas is the paymaster of all treatment plants including Splash. Correct me if wrong. Sort of holding Splash ransom, pressure to Gamuda and that Tan Sri to sell out Splash. How to pay Puncak, maybe take on loan or partial disbursement from PAAB. If I am Azmin, I do this move. Maybe, I am bias? lolx.
New Pas will not win any seat in 14th General Election but will assist PKR & DAP. Every Seat is now 3 corners fight in 14th General Election. But as usual they will get Wakil Rakyat seat in States control by PKR & DAP States.
What We Think The supplementary agreement to the master agreement for the water restructuring exercise in Selangor, which was signed in 2014, is positive but long overdue. It is good news that both sides of the government have sorted out the land transfer issues but the 60-day allowance for both parties to comply with the undisclosed condition precedents (CPs) suggests that the impact will not trickle down to the stalled water deals of Puncak and Gamuda in the near term. Our channel checks support this view. The state's deteriorating reserve margin for treated water, which dropped to below 1% as at Jun 15 (from 5% since 2008), unscheduled water disruptions and risk of non-revenue water (NRW) rising above the current 32% level could lead to faster revival of Puncak's RM1.6bn sale and purchase (S&P) deal with the state. We would place greater conviction in this if Puncak announces that the CPs for the S&P have been fulfilled, as this would provide clearer timing of the RM1/share special dividend payout. For now, the earliest window appears to be 4Q15, in our view.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ImCK
3,300 posts
Posted by ImCK > 2015-07-11 22:25 | Report Abuse
will goreng up to 3.00 above then ply in 3.00 above range