Actually i agree with roger on this. U all think the company get the dividend from where? thin air?
* current pricing of a share is evaluate base on its current assets, business, cash, etc etc. when the company give RM1.00 dividend, where is the money come from? from it's company CASH!! means the company value will drop RM1.00 AND THE SHARE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY ALSO!!! ( if you not convinced with me, please do some research on the special dividend on google or ask some share expert)
* PLUS in this case, the reason becoz Puncak is giving big dividend is becoz he sell his CORE BUSINESS ( GOLDEN GOOSE) . when this business is sold, what is left for this company? Yes, we kanot argue they still hold alot cash that can invest in another new business, but if this is the case, means PUNCAK is same with SONA also.
some question arise also 1. if they invest in new business, will the new business same profitable as previous? 2. if the new business is O&g, which i think they lack of experience ( they make huge losess in 6 mths) will the share price drop further?
RULE OF BUSINESS ALWAYS REMEMBER " ONLY money in your pocket is HOT". any uncertainty or future prediction dont count!!!
adam, your logic is illogical at best. You said "ONLY money in your pocket is HOT". Before the special dividend announcement or the water deal completion, there is no certainty HOT in us, shareholders, or Puncak. Since water deal is completed, which is an assurance of 1.5553 billion cash to Puncak, Puncak share price rose from 2.5x to 2.8x, which is about 10% for HOT in Puncak's coffer. Then, when special dividend is announced, Puncak share price rose from 2.8x to 3.0x, and quickly fell to currently level of 2.8x. Wonder where is the HOT in shareholders as you said? Don't tell me 1 ringgit is not significant enough to be considered HOT...
KAHLEONG, RM1 is definitely a HUGE AND SIGNIFICANT amount, that is why i quickly shoot in 70Lots (70,000unit) at RM3.00 and RM2.98once i heard the news of special dividend of Rm1.00. But that time, no one even my reminser know how the RM1.00 will affect the price of share.
After i took a research on the dividend and consult some Senior manager from securities firm, the result that i get is the RM1.00 WILL CONFIRM adjust in the PRICE of the share.
Then for me, the RM1.00 is not significant oledi as it just deduct from the share price. so lets say before the ex-date, the price of puncak is RM2.85, then after dividend, it will adjust to RM1.85!!!!! THEN WAT IS THE SIGNIFICANT IN THIS??????
if you wan to argue about how good or profitable this business is and can hold for long term. BUT THEY OLEDI SOLD OFF THEIR CORE BUSINESS!!!! means no profitable business in hand!!!
for my case, i sold off all my puncak after research on the dividend at RM2.88 and 2.89.
AhHuat. Don't expect too much from Puncak in 2016. If before ex-date price is 3.20, then post ex-date will be 1.80 --2.20 for atleast 3 weeks. But i think price will drop 2-3 days before ex-date if there is push from 16 Nov onwards. I am collecting now--small volume Keep more cash for 2016 (incase good "goreng stock " crashing down). Value Cap can only support Big Cap-- index linked
Don't so negative. Listen to Roger only smoothing his ego, detrimental to us... Let see post the expiry of this month call warrant and adjustment factor, should be good for puncak...
will adjust downwards, but current market price doesnt always reflect true intrinsic value of the company. If you return back cash to shareholder, some of the investors may assign a higher value to the company (i.e. less discount to RNAV)
so means u guys actually know the price will adjust according to dividend ar? u should alert newbie like me. But when i ask my reminser that day when i buy, she told me she also duno, only after i bought the share then she consult her manager then get back to me say confirm will adjust.
at first i do not believe her and do some research on google and ask other securities firm people. Of all answer i get is still CONFIRM will adjust. So i no choice to sell all of it and suffer losses.
That time when heard the news of Rm1.00 dividend, i calculate is more than 30% return in JUST 1 MONTH!!! i even think of throw everything in and even borrow AHLONG and put that all in puncak. 30% in 1 month!!! if by annum, direct interest oledi 360% !!!!! where on earth u can find 360% annual return?? Last time when i buy wawasan 2020, only 6-7% u can see people Que till like crazy ppl to buy.
Sorry for long post. i though u guys duno about the dividend so just thinking wan alert u guys.
Adam17 & Benblurblur, in fact some advice was provided per below last week by me, but never expect both of U are not aware of such adjustment, u ever realize that even after receiving dividend from Unit Trust, such adjustment will also be made; I feel for U , however just take this as lesson learnt, after all u will still receive the div and while waiting should the price recover, u may take profit. What is important now is keep monitoring and control ur emotion, cheers!
Posted by saschl > Nov 4, 2015 03:23 PM | Report Abuse X
saschl (posted last week) (After this post, was cursed by some blogger and since then I stopped as I'm also in the learning curve) Don't just buy for dividend, buy for value. Ask urself this q: After Div, based on today price, share price will be 1.9, what is there left behind in this counter to support that value?? If I say something wrong plse don't scold me Thkq.
Adam, not sure about others, but I am buying not due to just the special dividend, but its net tangible asset per share that's hugely in cash.
Based on its most recent quarter report, Puncak should have at least RM 3.60 per share of CASH, assuming all warrants and sukuk are converted into shares with an enlarged shares outstanding of 533 million shares to more than RM 4.00 per share of CASH, assuming 0 warrant/sukuk conversion. Of course, Puncak net cash per share should come in between RM 3.60 - RM 4.00. Aside from this, Puncak should have lands (Kuala Selangor along has 280 acres of land - and be remembered Ecoworld just bought over 1,000 acres there at over RM 1 million per acre!), water concession in China, and construction projects (profitable) and O&G business (huge losses, probably that's why UMW retired boss is brought in). These should carry a value of RM 1.00 - RM 1.25 per share.
The above valuation could be found if you read the most recent quarter report as well as prospectus of Selangor water asset disposal.
Most anal-yst report from major investment banks (think only CIMB values Puncak @ 3.40 and Kenanga @ 3.99 with the rest less than 3.20 per share) are not friendly at all, with all citing uncertainty about its future, i.e., what will be income generator! Surely, if one didn't do his/her independent analysis while relying on these anal-ysts to provide the basic, none would consider investing, given uncertainty and value per share of less than 3.20.
I have tried to come up with reasons why Puncak has not been able to perform despite water deal completion, special dividend announcement, and appointment of an experienced new head. These include: (1) Few coverage with negative recommendations from most investment banks! A factor that can hardly be changed until a change in viewpoints.
(2) Over concern about its future prospect without realizing that the cash per share left alone is sufficient to cover future losses in O&G (cash of RM 2.60 at interest rate of 3% should generate about RM 40 million cash) and possibly irresponsible investment decision (possible but not highly likely, given Rozali himself owns over 40% of Puncak.)
(3) Concern of oversupply in new shares from warrant/sukuk conversion, which could be as high as 25% in addition to current shares outstanding. Quite frankly, I have overlooked this possibility when considering my investment in Puncak.
(4) Lack of major funds participation. Islamic Funds are not allowed to buy while those currently hold Puncak has to look into disposal given that Puncak no longer 'halal' (wonder if that the status could change in near future?!?). Meanwhile, EPF has been selling to less than 5% exposure, guess most funds prefer investing in stocks with 'bright' future with stories to tell.
Anyhow, I sincerely believe Puncak should at least be valued between 3.30 and 3.80, depending on market situation, while below RM 3.00 a sure hold and RM 3.00 - RM 3.30 disposable if a new investment opportunity arises.
smartly, think its somehow covered in point (1) and (2) that affect investors sentiment on Puncak. Any how, hopefully we will get a small rally closer to the ex-date and post ex-date...
Rally start next week and ends 25/26 Nov then sell till 1/2 Dec. If no rally until 25/26 Nov then a Big one starts 1/2/3 Dec---Normal Bear Market Rally--very short.
Rozali stated his intention to deal Puncak shares during closed period. Wonder if its due to warrant conversion, or that he intends to buy more Puncak shares?
Construction biz is Not bright at all for next two years bocz Zeti is clamping on Luxury units (1 million and above.) Condo outside KL zone is dead. Only landed property around KL zone is appreciating at reduce rate. The brightest zone is TRX and BUkit Bintang area where MRT stations are located.. most likely hitting RM4000psf in 2 years time
frankly, no market is bright right now in Malaysia unless its export-oriented. Rozali should really seriously consider liquidating Puncak and retires for the benefits of the rest of Puncak shareholders....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Roger123
1,821 posts
Posted by Roger123 > 2015-11-11 00:32 | Report Abuse
Stupid newbie, jjchan.