Posted by Habisgl0v33 > 2021-09-02 23:40 |

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Posted by Citadel12 > 2021-09-03 01:54 |

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Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-03 08:20 | Report Abuse

It has been a week since Supermx released its FY 2021 Q4 result . Did anybody has Nomura , RHB, AFFIN BANK and BIMB Analyst reports ? THis time I did not see any detailed ASP, Capacity and profit guidance from Analyst report?

Posted by Boston > 2021-09-03 08:50 | Report Abuse

Analysts give too high or too low kenna arrowed. Playing safe this time.

Posted by Iamstilllearning > 2021-09-03 09:07 | Report Abuse

If ib analysis can be trusted, semua orang tak paya kerja sudah

Posted by ket4212 > 2021-09-03 09:13 | Report Abuse

morning

Posted by ket4212 > 2021-09-03 09:15 | Report Abuse

buy glove stock for long term invest

Posted by ket4212 > 2021-09-03 09:19 | Report Abuse

等股息除权再买也不迟！

Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-03 09:20 | Report Abuse

With the Abscence of profit guidance , I can only estimate the next qtr earning using some details from the previous qtr guidance plus details from the last financials .

For those who had looked into the details of prepayment from customers ,you will notice the numbers was reduced from 1044 billion to 631 million , a reduction of 413 millions . With the price came down 15 to 25 % for spot sales and this price is lower than the earlier contractual prices , we can assume that there is no more new deposits from the customers since last qtr . We can only deduce that the last Qtr 1875 million revenue came from the old contractual orders . We can also estimate that the average percentage of deposit is 1875/413 or 22 % of the orders .
That means the balance 631 million prepayment or deposit which is still in the QTR ending June, supermx still has a total order of 631/0.22 or 2.868 billions with the old contracts or lock in ASPs.
This 2.868 billions contractual orders will be sufficient to cover the coming qtr and the balance spill over to the subsequent qtr .

With this fact , I can confidently say that the coming qtr result should be able to deliver similar result if not because of MCO which allowed only 60 % workforce . The effect of 60 % workforce is about 75 % utilization rate based on Harta guidance . The company can actually get more production workers ( 75%) to work while asking the 100 % of office stuff to work from home and still meet the MCO requirements .

The projected revenue and PAT of Q1 2022 will be

Revenue = 80 x 26/4 x 0.75 x 4.2 x 0.5 = 1638 millions

PAT = 1638 x 0.5 = 819 millions

There will be a spillover of 1230 millions ( 2868 -1638 ) order to the subsequent qtr ( Q2 2022) . This Q2 will have a mixture of old order with deposits and new orders without deposits . The projected ASP will average out to be lower than US 80 plus from old orders .THe number will be probably between 70 and 80 .

Assuming an ASP of 75 and no workforce restrictions by then , the revenue and PAT for Q2 will be

Revenue = 75 x 26/4 x 0.9 x 4.2 = 1842 millions

PAT = 1842 x 0.5 = 921 millions .

Note : I am assuming no capacity increase at 26.2 billion p.a and barrig any unforseen circumstances like container shortage or total production shutdown .

Disclaimer : It is not a buy or sell call . My write up is for sharing with serious investors .

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 09:28 | Report Abuse

Analysts give too high when they want to sell and give too low when they want to buy!!

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 09:30 | Report Abuse

Yes pjseow, no briefing on financial result yet. Im wondering why!

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 09:55 |

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Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-03 10:07 |

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Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-03 10:08 |

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Posted by Goldberg > 2021-09-03 10:12 | Report Abuse

Jab's Waning Immunity to hit highly vaccinated countries.
---------------------------------------------------------
2nd September 2021

Israel has become the Covid capital of the world despite leading the charge on vaccines, in a clear warning sign that Britain, the US and other highly-immunised nations are still vulnerable to another wave.

Stats compiled by Oxford University-backed research team Our World in Data shows there were a record 1,892 Covid cases per million people in Israel on Wednesday — nearly 0.2 per cent of the entire population in a single day. sparking fears other highly-vaccinated countries will be hit by another wave due to jabs' waning immunity

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9951117/Israel-worlds-Covid-hotspot-0-2-population-catching-yesterday.html

Posted by myinvestor > 2021-09-03 10:14 | Report Abuse

Pjseow, What about non core business contribution to revenue/profit?
Contact lens and PPE/facemask manufacturing in Canada 420m capacity per year.

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-09-03 10:20 | Report Abuse

Shorties getting desperate...their avg selling price is only $3.1355!

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 10:26 |

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Posted by Geek2020 > 2021-09-03 10:26 |

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Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 10:28 |

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Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 10:30 | Report Abuse

Maybe a weekend briefing and it will be vey positive!!!

Posted by Geek2020 > 2021-09-03 10:31 |

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Posted by Habisgl0v33 > 2021-09-03 10:34 |

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Posted by dompeilee > 2021-09-03 10:41 | Report Abuse

Human nature is funny. Last yr price soared to 24.44 (11.967 adj) & a nal-ysts put crazy tgts like $30-50. Price anticipated the record EPS in recent qtrs but balloon deflated & left many ConYewyin followers holding big bags of -$hit lol

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-09-03 10:44 | Report Abuse

Deflating price is anticipating big drops in coming qtr's EPS, which in itself is a no-brainer, but like the upside, the drop is also overshooting.

Posted by niet > 2021-09-03 10:46 | Report Abuse

Geek 2020 Glove selling not so simple in 1st world countries. Must have certification.

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-09-03 10:46 | Report Abuse

I'm not concerned by the price drop because am buying small qties in a leisurely manner...my commitment now is still less than 10k. Never mind the commissions because the dividend is more than paying for each trade!

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-03 10:49 |

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Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-03 10:54 | Report Abuse

Myinvestor, I did not consider the contact lens and the facemask PPE business. I remember the Facemask and PPE business did contribute profits to the company although relatively smaller .

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myinvestor Pjseow, What about non core business contribution to revenue/profit?
Contact lens and PPE/facemask manufacturing in Canada 420m capacity per year.
03/09/2021 10:14 AM

Posted by Habisgl0ve > 2021-09-03 11:01 |

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Posted by BlessedInvestor > 2021-09-03 11:02 | Report Abuse

31082021 从中国英科医疗手套扩张计划來看世界手套产能. 在2024年，全球丁腈医疗手套会不会产能过剩?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODsufi1tQ5w

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 11:09 |

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Posted by AdCool > 2021-09-03 11:18 | Report Abuse

No TP or analysts craps except for Kenanga. Previously those IBs already have prepared scripts even before the results was released. Hence they can just do some amendment get it published in a day or two after results. This time, the number they prepared must have not tallied and need to work out the number again after seeing Supermax reporting 959 million profit and not 500 million profit. Now they must be headache on crunching the numbers again.

pjseow It has been a week since Supermx released its FY 2021 Q4 result . Did anybody has Nomura , RHB, AFFIN BANK and BIMB Analyst reports ? THis time I did not see any detailed ASP, Capacity and profit guidance from Analyst report?

Posted by greedy44444 > 2021-09-03 11:24 | Report Abuse

https://www.insider.com/who-is-tracking-covid-19-mu-variant-evade-vaccine-immunity-2021-9?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=sf-bi-main&utm_medium=social

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 11:29 |

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Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-03 11:36 | Report Abuse

Adcool, haha, I agree with you. These IBs must be struggling to juggle with their numbers after the ""surprised PAT "" from.last qtr .

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AdCool No TP or analysts craps except for Kenanga. Previously those IBs already have prepared scripts even before the results was released. Hence they can just do some amendment get it published in a day or two after results. This time, the number they prepared must have not tallied and need to work out the number again after seeing Supermax reporting 959 million profit and not 500 million profit. Now they must be headache on crunching the numbers again.

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-03 11:41 |

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Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 11:53 |

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Posted by AdCool > 2021-09-03 11:55 | Report Abuse

They just aim to cover back at 3.10. LOL. wanna earn rm30 only for 3 plates of nasi lemak with ayam goreng.

dompeilee Shorties getting desperate...their avg selling price is only $3.1355!
03/09/2021 11:54 AM

Posted by glovefinish > 2021-09-03 11:57 |

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Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-03 12:22 |

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Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-03 12:25 | Report Abuse

Stealth, ya. RHB and some other IB s which downgraded supermx s last qtr earnings to 500 millions are still.thinking what to write . They must have read how MMM was bashed in i3 when he quoted rhb 500 mil PAT projection. Whacking MMM.was like whacking rhb and other IBs. They are hiding now.

Posted by ongmari > 2021-09-03 12:28 | Report Abuse

another 2 qtrs of PAT of 800 mil will see RM 5 back

Posted by tiptop168 > 2021-09-03 12:35 |

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Posted by Sunyata > 2021-09-03 12:43 | Report Abuse

can RSS really affect prices this much?

Posted by Habisgl0v333 > 2021-09-03 12:47 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-03 13:10 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-03 13:16 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-03 13:27 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-03 13:32 |

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