Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-05 20:29 |

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Posted by joyvest > 2021-09-05 20:36 |

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Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-05 21:14 | Report Abuse

Future growth?
This is something that no one can guarantee just as downtrend or uptrend of gloves also cannot be guaranteed although the curve is pointing downwards. Correct?
Can joyvest guarantee future growth of a company?
This a typical person trying to be smart to preach his belief to others.

Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-05 21:41 | Report Abuse

In my opinion and based on the my earlier computation of equivalent linear compounded growth rates of 52 % for 6 years , supermx PE should be at least 6 based on FY 2021 EPS of 140 s. If we based on normalised and stabilised ASP of US 30 and its EPS of about 57 sen, a PE of at least 18 por 20 should be given and add another RM1 for the super.dividend receive during the. pandemic period.
Tomorrow, I will show how the IB s had ignored or omitted some key historical facts on net margins when they compute the earnings for FY 23 and FY 24 .

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In fact pjseow, SpmX share price should be ard 6.00 if not bcos of the shortist who keep pressing down. I mean its not too demanding to expect at least PE4 for such high profita and with the pandemic still ravaging many parts of the world.
05/09/2021 6:36 PM

Posted by SWT1988 > 2021-09-05 22:11 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow back to above 3.20?

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-09-05 22:12 | Report Abuse

yup pjseow, I agree all the way with you. Its just that with the shortists aggressively attacking and pressing all the Big4 down, I be happy if can bounce back to 6.0 level for now.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-09-05 22:16 | Report Abuse

@joyvest Any PE of more than 3 is just a fantasy.Your self deceiving is more than your loss...
05/09/2021 6:52 PM

Hey joyvest, you have very shallow understanding of what you are talking about so better shut up and pay attention to pjseow's calculation and reasoning.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-09-05 22:27 | Report Abuse

@Stealth We can all see how desperate the shortists are!! Haha! They will all fall flat on their faces with their feces!!!
05/09/2021 8:10 PM

Yup Stealth, their desperation is becoming more apparent by the day. As I pointed out earlier, they got someone in Bursa to add in some irrelevant ETF stocks to jumble up the Big4 short positions at the top of the table. They try to hide the fact that they have been shorting the Big4 big time. I mean with such major manipulation of the Big4, shouldn't Bursa do something about it? This can be investigated under some anti-trust law, where there is alrdy unfair financial monopoly practice being carried out. Maybe Bursa need to revise the RSS limit to 3% instead of current 4%. If the reasoning for RSS is to create a more dynamic trading activities then at 3% trading will be even more dynamic, as there would be better competition between retailers and short sellers.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-05 22:35 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-05 22:41 |

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Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-09-05 22:41 |

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Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-05 22:49 | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Future (-) growth is crystal clear..so far ASP nonstop drop - confirm will translate to very low profit
05/09/2021 10:35 PM

You are trying to be smarter than joyvest?
Hello! Supermax future growth was crystal clear last year that was why it shot up to RM26. See how much is it now?
ASP of gloves nonstop that maybe true but future is yet to be seen as demand for gloves is still growing.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-05 22:53 |

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Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-05 22:53 |

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Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-05 23:04 | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Aiyaa doesnt matter whether QR profit 500Mil or 900Mil..share price still down b’coz low future profit expectation
05/09/2021 10:53 PM

MoneyMakers In fact, u should hope profit drops to 500Mil faster so that share price can faster drop below 2.5..then can buy more
05/09/2021 10:53 PM

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Sorry, your expectations are not convincing enough based on your past wrong predictions.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-05 23:24 |

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Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-09-05 23:28 | Report Abuse

@MoneyMakers Aiyaa doesnt matter whether QR profit 500Mil or 900Mil..share price still down b’coz low future profit expectation
05/09/2021 10:53 PM

Aiyoh, MMM, u r wrong means u r wrong la, nothing u say can redeem ur fatal mistake, except the massacre of ur tiny weenie.

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-05 23:37 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 01:06 | Report Abuse

Shorts could not push price down friday 3 septtember. Must be very worried. Ex dividend day approaching.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-09-06 08:34 | Report Abuse

Dive,dive dive...!

Posted by OnTime > 2021-09-06 08:49 | Report Abuse

Smax earns so much money, Smax should be taken private or be bought by someone else.

Posted by Maridien2 > 2021-09-06 08:57 | Report Abuse

Israel is planning to administer FOURTH Covid shot which could be adjusted to fight new variants as country battles wave of infections despite hugely successful vaccine roll-out

It comes as the country deals with soaring cases despite blazing a trail on jabs

The country's national coronavirus czar says people should expect to receive a new vaccination against the virus more frequently - 'every five to six months'

Israel expected to give out vaccines that have been specially adapted to cope with different variants of the coronavirus by late 2021 or early 2022, he says

Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 09:09 | Report Abuse

How to dive when got Diamond Hands.

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-06 09:30 |

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Posted by shareinvestor888 > 2021-09-06 09:46 | Report Abuse

Please don’t be mean. Holding up well above 3.

Posted by imvu > 2021-09-06 09:51 | Report Abuse

wow , tak sangka bulan 9 , monthly chart topglove , harta , kossan , supermax dah masuk area rsi bawah 30% cepat betul ..

Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-06 09:57 | Report Abuse

Many IBs started to project ASPs from the current peak of US 87 to US 48 in 2022 to US 30 in 2023 . Some even predicted US 26 in 2024 . Based on Frost and Sullivan Research , the Nitrile glove ASP s are a Bell curve with the followings .

CY 2019 US 23.1
CY 2020 US 38.0
CY 2021 US 85.1
CY 2022 US 53.5
CY 2023 US 35.1
CY 2024 US 30.5
CY 2025 US 27.2

It is important for us to know what will be the res[ective PATs as the ASP goes down from the current peak to the respective levels .Since different glove makers has different Nitrile to Latex ratio, the blended ASPs ( weighted average ) will be different . A different ASP , Capacities and NET margins will give different Earnings .

Lets look at supermx historical data and then provide a more realistic projections .

FY 2019 ( July 2018 - June 2019 )

Revenue = 1489 millions
PAT = 124 millions
Capacity = 22 billions per year

Nett Margin = 124/1489 = 8.3 %
Blended ASP = 1489/4.1/22/0.85 = US 19.4


FY 2020 ( July 2019 - June 2020 )

Revenue = 2131 millions
PAT - 526 millions
Capacity = 24 billions per year

Nett Margin = 526/2131 = 24.7 %
Blended ASP = 2131/4.2/24/0.85 = 24.9


Based on the above Actual and FACTUAL Data ,Supermx FY 2020 blended ASP was US 24.9 which will give a Net margin of 24.7 % .
With capacity of 24 billions , it generates a PAT of 526 millions
With simple maths , a capacity of 48 billions will generate double the profits to 1052 millions .

If the blended ASP is US 30 , a 20 % higher than US 24.9 , the PAT should be about double if we use the same utilization of 85 % and net margin of 24.7 % . ASP 30 should actually give a higher than 24.7 % margin .

To summarise , all the IBs had too low a valuations for supermx . They underestimated the PAT by either using a much lower Nett margin or much lower capacity or utilization rates . THey also use much lower PEs and did not consider the Super dividends the shareholders will receive during the pandemic periods .

Disclaimer : This write up is not a buy or sell call . It is intended for sharing with serious investors . Civilised comments are welcomed .

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-06 10:02 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:03 | Report Abuse

Hei short sellers. Why no power today. Some have to buy back today.

Posted by danny1234 > 2021-09-06 10:04 |

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Posted by danny1234 > 2021-09-06 10:05 |

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Posted by munfatt2000 > 2021-09-06 10:09 | Report Abuse

PJseow , your analysis make sense. thanks

i believe supermax will reward shareholder good dividend.

Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:13 | Report Abuse

xiaomixiaohai you should advise WHO and Joe Biden. You have got magic bullet

Posted by FairTalk > 2021-09-06 10:14 | Report Abuse

Good morning PJ Seow, any idea how large/big will be the estimated hoard of Cash Reserve of Supermax at the end of this financial year/ next financial year. Thank You for your hard works.

Posted by glovefinish > 2021-09-06 10:16 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:19 | Report Abuse

So far short sell 182100 shares today

Posted by glovefinish > 2021-09-06 10:19 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:21 | Report Abuse

Fifteen cents dividend coming in 3 days be worried. Not bothered about long term

Posted by Citadel9999 > 2021-09-06 10:23 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:24 | Report Abuse

Now have short selled 210400 so far. Most probably sold at 3.12

Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:26 | Report Abuse

Short sellers have to pay to borrow shares. 1 sen gain enough to cover I suppose.

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-09-06 10:29 | Report Abuse

The co. is paying you to HOLD for more than 2 years(comparing to FD rate) for the price to go back above 3.50 or more... it may drop to 2.50 or lower in the meantime but it won't worry me!

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-06 10:33 | Report Abuse

Shorties afraid of the dividend, now move to sell down Kossan instead.

Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:34 | Report Abuse

Short sellers want to make quick profit but talk about long term. This is a disconnect

Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:37 | Report Abuse

Now short selled 224200. The price sold most probably 3.12

Posted by xiaomixiaohai > 2021-09-06 10:39 |

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Posted by Citadel9999 > 2021-09-06 10:42 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:51 | Report Abuse

So far short selled 224200. No change from last update.

Posted by glovefinish > 2021-09-06 10:53 |

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Posted by niet > 2021-09-06 10:55 | Report Abuse

So far short selled 238000. Why so little sell from last update.