Malaysia’s glove sector outlook: Not the time yet for bottom fishing
WITH average selling prices (ASPs) having yet to find a bottom, the time may not yet be ripe to bottom fish glove stocks.
Further expecting interest in COVID-19 related stocks such as gloves to wane as the global vaccination rate rises has prompted Maybank IB Research to downgrade the outlook of the glove sector to “negative” (from “neutral” previously).
“We believe strong balance sheets and low operating costs are important factors that will allow glove makers to weather through the downturn and provide some financial cushion to the imminent price war,” opined analyst Wong Wei Sum in a glove sector update.
“Fortunately, the glove makers under our coverage i.e. Top Glove Corp Bhd (RM2.05 bil), Hartalega Holdings Bhd (RM3.08 bil) and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (RM1.64 bil) have accumulated sizeable amounts of cash during the peak cycle and are now in net cash positions.”
In Maybank IB Research’s view, the industry’s ASP which is declining fast could hit pre-COVID levels by mid-2022, ie another -42% from current level of about US$40/1,000 glove pieces in September.
“With the stiff competition from China, we believe the Malaysian glove sector is experiencing a structural change and the oversupply situation could potentially extend longer than the typical downcycle of six to nine months,” the research house pointed out.
However, Maybank IB Research expects the strong balance sheet to be able to self-fund the glove maker’s expansion capacity for the next few years.
“Our concern would be with new entrants that rushed into the glove sector during the peak cycle in end 2020,” noted the research house.
“In order to get their factories ready within very short period, we understand that these new entrants paid premium pricing for their plants, installation works, machineries, raw materials and even staffs; hence, high operating costs, making them less competitive in pricing.”
Company-wise, Maybank IB Research has downgraded Hartalega and and Kossan to “sell” (from “hold” previously) with lower target prices of RM3.99 (from RM6.74 previously) and RM1.86 (from RM3.16 previously) respectively. At the same time, it maintained its “sell” call on Top Glove with an unchanged target price of RM1.68.
Glove ASPs to continue decline in 1H 2022, says HLIB Research
KUALA LUMPUR: The average selling price (ASP) of gloves is expected to continue declining in the first half of 2022, albeit at a slower rate of 5 per cent month-on-month (MoM), compared to 10 per cent MoM previously.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) said glove prices had fallen closer to pre-Covid levels, with the current ASP being US$25-35 per thousand pieces compared to the pre-pandemic ASP of US$21 per thousand pieces.
"We also note that the pricing difference between the US market and European Union (EU) market is also narrowing, at US$5 the difference now, as opposed to a US$10 gap earlier.
"In our view, glove prices are likely to reach pre-Covid levels by the second half (Q2) of 2022," the bank-backed research firm said in a note today.
Glove ASPs have been on a downtrend since mid-2021, following a mass rollout of vaccination programmes in major glove consuming countries, as the better vaccination coverage has greatly alleviated buyers' urgency to stock up on gloves.
The spike in glove demand previously has resulted in nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) latex prices to more than double to a high of US$2.40 per kg in early-2021 but has since tapered off, in tandem with the weaker glove demand.
NBR latex prices are expected to reach pre-Covid levels of US$1.10 per kg in early-2022, as glove demand continues to normalise, and additional supply capacity kicks in.
Natural rubber (NR) latex prices, however, are expected to stay elevated in 1H 2022, given the La Nina phenomenon expected in January 2022, followed by wintering period that typically lasts from February to May.
HLIB noted that with ASPs declining faster than raw material price, coupled with higher operating costs stemming from better social compliance practices and
stricter standard operating procedures (SOP), margins for the glove makers are expected to compress further.
Not to mention that the impending price war arising from Chinese glove makers attempting to win market share could also exacerbate the situation further.
"Nevertheless, we are comforted by the fact that the glove makers under our coverage have accumulated a large war chest during the upcycle, and the strong balance sheet should help the glove producers to better weather through this difficult time," the research firm said.
Further, HLIB Research said amidst the falling ASPs, glove buyers have refrained from stocking up on gloves to avoid locking in purchases at high prices.
"However, with glove prices slowly approaching pre-Covid levels, we think that restocking activities could gradually resume in 1H 2022.
"That said, we expect utilisation rate for the glove producers to remain below pre-Covid levels of 80-85 per cent in 1H 2022, due to overall softening in demand," the firm noted.
HLIB Research maintains a Neutral call for the sector as the current headwinds faced by the glove makers are unlikely to dissipate in the near future.
"We expect the operating environment for glove makers to remain challenging in 1H 2022.
"However, a strong cash position should help the glove makers to navigate through these challenging times and withstand any impending price wars that might come their way," the research firm said.
omicron is displacing delta fast all over the world. omicron spread much faster, have shorter incubation period, but much harder to infect lungs and patients take lesser time to recover. so the omicron wave will be more compressed. there may be a bit of surge of hospitalizations during its peak but it will be short-lived. herd immunity will be formed quickly by natural infections due to its high transmissibility covid is becoming flu-like. bad news for glove industry
NEW YORK CITY (WABC) -- New York State reported a "striking increase" in new hospital admissions for children as pediatric COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. continue to rise week after week.
The New York State Department of Health said the recent fourfold increase in admissions that began the week of December 5 is concentrated in New York City and the surrounding area, where the highly contagious omicron variant was spreading rapidly.
"The risks of COVID-19 for children are real," acting State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett said.
Pediatric hospitalizations are up 395% in New York City since the week ending December 11, jumping from 22 to 109 the week ending December 23. Statewide pediatric hospitalizations jumped from 70 to 184.
Menurut Menteri Kesihatan, Khairy Jamaluddin, 306 kes kemungkinan Omicron di dalam negara dan kini menunggu hasil kajian untuk mengetahui jangkitan dari negara mana selain perincian selepas mendapat keputusannya.
I am writing this to the extensive aunty and uncle networks that flourish via WhatsApp and Telegram groups. I am sure all of you are aware of the Omicron variant, but may have a limited picture of what to expect. Allow me to share with you and your networks what we can expect with this variant in Malaysia.
Possible Omicron Wave In Malaysia From January To March 2022
The current detected cases of Omicron in the country may appear low, but we must realise that our genome testing is very limited (0.25 per cent of cases), compared to countries of our level of development.
If you look carefully at the data, you will see a steep rise in the number of infections in imported cases. Most of these are probably the Omicron variant. It is very likely, in many countries, including Singapore, that Omicron is beginning to spread locally in the community.
As we know from good data, Omicron spreads very fast and has a rapid doubling time of 1.5 to 2.5 days. This means that small numbers can rapidly escalate in a short time.
Note that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has already predicted a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases in Malaysia due to the Omicron variant, with a peak happening in January 2022.
Looking at what has happened in other countries, especially South Africa and the United Kingdom, Malaysia can expect a sharp rise in cases in the next one to three months, but we hope this will be short-lived.
How Will Omicron Impact Our Health?
What we know so far from the available data is that Omicron causes breakthrough infections more easily for those who are vaccinated, and appears to be less severe, but we have no idea of the risk of long Covid.
The latest technical briefing from Public Health England has data that offers better estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against getting infected. To summarise:
Two doses of Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines do not protect against the Omicron variant three to four months after vaccination (unlike with Delta). For those who received Pfizer vaccines, another Pfizer booster dose pushed up protection initially, but this dropped to about 45 per cent after 10 weeks. For those who received AstraZeneca vaccines, a Pfizer booster dose pushed up protection initially, but this dropped to about 35 per cent after 10 weeks. Boosting Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine recipients with a Moderna vaccine produced better results. This data suggests that anyone can get infected despite being vaccinated, and that boosters have a moderate effect in reducing infection. Vaccines can reduce hospitalisation.
Note that VE against hospitalisation was not shown, which is of more value and importance to us. South African data suggested that hospitalisation was reduced significantly when one is infected with Omicron compared to Delta, but we must realise that their population has lower vaccination rates and higher natural immunity from extensive Covid-19 spread.
A detailed analysis of UK data by the Imperial College London suggests a 40 to 45 per cent reduction in hospitalisation risk when compared to the Delta variant.
This data suggests that Omicron is less severe, but bear in mind that being so much more infective means that it still can put many people in hospital.
What about the Sinovac vaccine and Omicron? There is no real-world data, unlike Pfizer and AstraZeneca, and we have to rely on laboratory antibody studies, which may not reflect what will happen.
Studies from the University of Hong Kong showed that two doses of Sinovac produced insufficient antibodies against Omicron. This was also the case for a Sinovac booster dose. The University of Hong Kong team recommended that Sinovac vaccine recipients receive a Pfizer booster dose.
In summary, Omicron will infect many of us, some of us will be hospitalised, and certain vaccine boosters offer protection. We have no idea at present of Omicron’s long Covid risk but experts in the United States do not expect it “to be any different than previous variants”.
What Are The Concerns For The Health Care System And Society?
The concern of a new Covid-19 wave will put stress on our health care system. Health care workers are beyond the point of exhaustion, and ICU beds are limited. Another wave will increase bed usage, put additional strain on the system, and limit health care for other medical conditions.
We should also worry about our children, especially those aged below 12. They are unprotected and will be difficult to shield from the very infectious Omicron variant.
Their schooling may be disrupted again. We need to seriously consider using the Pfizer vaccine, originally meant for teenagers and adults, at a smaller dose for children aged 5 to 11, as well as improve classroom ventilation.
What Can We Do to Improve Our Protection (Reduce Our Risk)?
None of us are looking forward to any form of a lockdown, as it will further harm the poor, the economy, and the mental health of all. In medicine, we often talk about a return to
What ASP for supermx? Some analysts said is USD 25-35 for gloves sector. But this is wrong, it must depend number of gloves shipped.
ASP formula ASP= Total revenue/no of gloves shipped.
Last qtr revenue:1.46b Capacity 26b, 70% utilization 18.2b based on 12months. Average per month 1.52b gloves produced. Last qtr output from July to Sept 2021= 3x 1.52b=4.56b or 4.56m per/1000 pcs.
Asp for last qtr from July to 30 sept 2021:1460m/4.56m=RM320. Convert to USD based on 4.2 exchange rate:USD76.
On Monday, there were 543,415 new cases recorded, which boosted the 7-day average of new cases to 243,099, the most since Jan. 13, and more than double (105%) the average from two weeks ago, according to a New York Times tracker.
New York state COVID hospitalizations ballooned over the Christmas holiday, topping 5,500 for the first time since late February, Gov. Kathy Hochul said Monday, and while daily cases were considerably lower than the record-shattering highs of the last 10 days, a more accurate picture on that front is expected in a day.
As of Monday, statewide hospitalizations stand at 5,526, the highest total since February 23 and a near 190% increase since Nov. 1 alone. That's still well short of the 7,000 New Yorkers who were hospitalized with COVID this time last year, and the sheer volume of omicron infections will likely translate to some more severe cases by default, especially among the unvaccinated, Hochul says.
The number of people in the hospital in New York state with COVID-19 rose 12% in one day, the governor's office said, as more than 40,000 people tested positive for the virus.
Some 6,173 people are hospitalized in the state, Gov. Kathy Hochul's office said Tuesday, up 647 versus a day earlier. More than 1,100 people were newly admitted, offset somewhat by discharges and deaths.
To be sure, hospitalizations are still one-third lower now than they were in the worst of the winter surge last January. But at the current rate of growth, the state would eclipse that mark by the weekend.
The data are almost hard to fathom -- nearly 20% of all COVID tests in the state came back positive yesterday, and in just the last five days, about 1% of all residents of the state tested positive for the virus.
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Posted by ahbah > 2021-12-27 15:08 | Report Abuse
A trap onli for those who go in today ?