U MUST UNDERSTAND THE ENEMY IS PREPARING FOR A 2 STAGE GAME LOH...!!
STAGE 1- BRING UP THEIR SHAREHOLDING TO AROUND 70% LEVEL, THRU REDUCE HURDLE LOH...!!
STAGE 2- STAGE ANOTHER TAKEOVER ATTEMPT 9 MTHS TO 1 YR LATER LOH...!!
RAIDER ADVICE THAT 67% TO 70% SHAREHOLDING OF THE MAJOR SHAREHOLDER IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION MAH.....!!
JUST IMAGINE, IF NOT SUCCESSFUL IF U HANG ON TO HOVID WITH SHORT SUPPLY, ON THE BALANCE 30% IT IS VERY VALUABLE MAH....!!
U MAY CONSIDER BUYING SOME & HANG ON TOO IT LOH...!!
Points to ponder over:
1. There are actually still 820,889,000 (assuming no conversion of more warrants) - 549,995,630 = 270,893,370 or 2,708,933 lots or 2,708k lots of free floating Hovid shares out there. The reason why out of this 2,708k lots of free floating Hovid shares, the required 571k lots (only 21.09% of free floating shares) of shares is not on selling queue, is because the current buying price is not right?
2. It doesn't makes sense for a stingy person to convert the warrants owned, which entails a cash payment of ( 140,390,220 x 0.18 = RM25,270,240) to Hovid and also enlarge the % shares base?
3. While it is true they may not increase the offer price above 38 sens for those who have accepted their Offer. Those shareholders who have not accepted their Offer can continue to trade on Bursa and obtain better price than 38 sens depending on market demand, as with only 67%, HSS can no longer apply to delist Hovid.
In the short term to 29 December, in order achieve at least 67% in order to keep the shares of those who have accepted HSS's offer earlier, the share price of Hovid may increase higher than 38 sens due to supply and demand situation.
* There are many ways to keep tabs on the % of shares HSS has from the base of 62%... 1. Any open market purchases by major shareholder (HSS) needs to be announced to Bursa. 2. AGM 19/12 3. "Showhand" day on 27/12, before making the final decision
Who wants to buy? 1. (18 - 29/12) HSS up to 38 sens, > 38 sens HSS assigned proxies due to Johan case. 2. All medium to longterm shareholders after 29/12. If you refer Bursa stock chart https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/chart/7213.jsp
Highest price achieved by Hovid was 56.5 sens in 20 April 2015, fast forward to present 16 Dec. 2017 after the following actions below, don't you think Hovid share price has better capacity to scale greater heights?:
According to CIMB, the Chemor plant extension could raise Hovid’s existing tablet and capsule capacity by 70% (from the original capacity). But this will happen gradually.
The new capacity will translate into stronger earnings growth in future for Hovid when things are falling in place. This may be why Fajar Astoria is keen on pouring in money to take Hovid private — a deal that will cost them about RM243.1 million.
Hovid’s production facilities include the 20-acre (8.09ha) Chemor plant with softgel packing, effervescent dosage and oral solid dosage facilities, while its three-acre Ipoh plant, where its headquarters are in, produces softgel encapsulation, oral liquid, penicillin products and its heritage Ho Yan Hor herbal tea.
Aside from the manufacturing plants, Hovid has a research and development centre in Penang which is dedicated to bioequivalence studies.
With a market capitalisation of RM295 million, which is less than US$85 million, Hovid does appear to be an attractive merger and acquisition (M&A) target for foreign pharmaceutical giants that are looking for capacity expansion in this part of the world.
Everyone wants GO higher price, but the acquirer has strategise to maintain a low offer price in order to cap their outlay.
Since they are prepare to go for a second round, i think those who can afford to hang on for a longer term should stay. Hovid is still a good stock to invest as mentioned by cimb.
I think if they start another GO the next time about 1 year time, the offer price will be very much higher.
JUST REMEMBER GENERAL STOCKRAIDER, FIGHT ON YOUR SIDE FOR BETTER RETURN LOH...!!
U EITHER MAKE BIG OR U DON LOSE AT ALL LOH...!!
U CANNOT BE PONDAN, JUST SETTLE FOR A FEW CENTS GAIN ON HOVID LOH...!!
IF 27- 12-2017, NOT SUCCESSFUL, WHY WORRY LEH ?? THEY CAN START ALL OVER AGAIN MAH...BUT REMEMBER...AROUND 67% TO 70% ITS SHARE TAKEN OUT LOH....!!
COMMON SENSE MAH, LESS MAN...MORE SHARE...THIS TIME U STAY & ASK FOR MORE LOH...!!
RM 0.75 IS NOT UNREASONABLE IF THEY REALLY WANT TO GASAK WHOLE HOVID FOR THEMSELVES, EXCLUDING U LOH...!!
JUST STAY & FIGHT ALONG SIDE OF GENERAL RAIDER LOH...!!
OUR THEME SONG BELOW "Do You Hear The People Sing?"
[Enjolras:] Do you hear the people sing? Singing the song of angry men? It is the music of the people Who will not be slaves again! When the beating of your heart Echoes the beating of the drums There is a life about to start When tomorrow comes!
[Combeferre:] Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me? Beyond the barricade Is there a world you long to see?
[Courfeyrac:] Then join in the fight That will give you the right to be free!
[All:] Do you hear the people sing? Singing the song of angry men? It is the music of the people Who will not be slaves again! When the beating of your heart Echoes the beating of the drums There is a life about to start When tomorrow comes!
[Feuilly:] Will you give all you can give So that our banner may advance? Some will fall and some will live Will you stand up and take your chance? The blood of the martyrs Will water the meadows of France!
[All:] Do you hear the people sing? Singing the song of angry men? It is the music of the people Who will not be slaves again! When the beating of your heart Echoes the beating of the drums There is a life about to start When tomorrow comes
Even if HSS doesnt convert warrant to increase acceptance rate, he will do so before warrant expire. Warrant has no right as ordinary share does. Money burnt if he doesnt convert and let it lapse.
If HSS purchase higher than 38sen at open market, All shareholder will receive a new offer price equivalent to the highest price HSS purchase at open market during his offer period. If he secretly assign proxy to buy, don't he possess a risk of being punished by SC? If the proxy buy higher than 38sen and accept the offer at 38sen, don't u feel this act is illegal?
Chances of offer become unconditional is high, in order not to compromise with HSS offer, what you can do is withdraw the offer, that's correct. But you have to evaluate the risk too. There are a lot of speculators in this stock. Hovid forumers, how many percentage you own? I see most people here suggest not to accept the offer, but I see acceptance rate getting higher too even though the rate is small. There are still some people like me who want to accept the offer but haven't accepted it. Because if you accepted the offer earlier, in case the the current situation makes the offer cannot become unconditional, you will not be able to sell your share at the first place. So I expect the daily acceptance rate will increase when final date is approaching.
In stock market you have to accept the fact that not all people are investor. There are traders and speculators too. Since day one I'm a speculator of this stock, I got my way to make money through speculation, not only on this counter. But it doesn't mean my action is against you all. Of course I'm happy to get a higher offer price.
Depends on how desirous HSS would be, few outcome would happen after the offer period: 1. If acceptance rate is lower than 75%, market price free flow, if fall HSS might purchase at lower price.
2. If acceptance rate is higher than 75%, HSS opt for delisting, forcing you to compromise with him.
3. HSS being kindness and desperate to collect 100%, negotiate with us and offer a better price for all people including those who have already accepted the offer. This might need HSS to write a request to SC for approval.
For warrant holder you can withdraw your warrant and convert for shares to dilute HSS's holding too. You can hope for a new offer price but definitely it will take longer time, opportunity cost wise.
You guys can buy 38sen at open market if you couldn't buy at 37.5sen, to dilute HSS's holding, but I don't see anyone do so on last Friday, the day after new revision. Shares in open market now is just a peanut for HSS, if he has no confidence to get offer become unconditional, he will buy at 38sen and below in the market.
IF 67% ALREADY UNCONDITIONAL THAT MEANS U ALREADY GOT UR MONIES AT RM 0.38 IF U WANT TO RUN LOH.....!!
NOW QUESTION WHETHER THEY CAN GET ABOVE 75% AND TRY TO DELIST LEH ? I THINK IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THEM, BUT IF ANYHOW, EVEN IF THEY EXCEED 75% THEY STILL CANNOT DELIST, IF OVERWHELMING MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS IN VALUE OR NUMBERS OBJECT, U JUST NEED TO VOTE AGAINST DELISTING LOH....!!
THE BALANCE OF THE POST TAKEOVER SURVIVING MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS MUST FIGHT ON FOR BETTER PRICE LOH...!!
JUST SEND YOUR PROXY VOTES BY POST TO VOTE AGAINST DURING THE EGM FOR DELISTING THAT THEY WILL CALL LOH...!!
WE WILL FIGHT ON LOH...!!
Posted by Syndicates > Dec 17, 2017 01:15 PM | Report Abuse
Even if HSS doesnt convert warrant to increase acceptance rate, he will do so before warrant expire. Warrant has no right as ordinary share does. Money burnt if he doesnt convert and let it lapse.
If HSS purchase higher than 38sen at open market, All shareholder will receive a new offer price equivalent to the highest price HSS purchase at open market during his offer period. If he secretly assign proxy to buy, don't he possess a risk of being punished by SC? If the proxy buy higher than 38sen and accept the offer at 38sen, don't u feel this act is illegal?
Chances of offer become unconditional is high, in order not to compromise with HSS offer, what you can do is withdraw the offer, that's correct. But you have to evaluate the risk too. There are a lot of speculators in this stock. Hovid forumers, how many percentage you own? I see most people here suggest not to accept the offer, but I see acceptance rate getting higher too even though the rate is small. There are still some people like me who want to accept the offer but haven't accepted it. Because if you accepted the offer earlier, in case the the current situation makes the offer cannot become unconditional, you will not be able to sell your share at the first place. So I expect the daily acceptance rate will increase when final date is approaching.
In stock market you have to accept the fact that not all people are investor. There are traders and speculators too. Since day one I'm a speculator of this stock, I got my way to make money through speculation, not only on this counter. But it doesn't mean my action is against you all. Of course I'm happy to get a higher offer price.
Depends on how desirous HSS would be, few outcome would happen after the offer period: 1. If acceptance rate is lower than 75%, market price free flow, if fall HSS might purchase at lower price.
2. If acceptance rate is higher than 75%, HSS opt for delisting, forcing you to compromise with him.
3. HSS being kindness and desperate to collect 100%, negotiate with us and offer a better price for all people including those who have already accepted the offer. This might need HSS to write a request to SC for approval.
For warrant holder you can withdraw your warrant and convert for shares to dilute HSS's holding too. You can hope for a new offer price but definitely it will take longer time, opportunity cost wise.
Delisting company need EGM one meh? I don't know. I just know if public spread is less than 25% Bursa will suspend the counter without approval of anyone, unless company itself appeal.
YES THOSE DO NOT COMPLY WITH SHAREHOLDING SPREAD ...BURSA CAN THREATHEN WITH DELISTING MAH....!! THAT TYPE OF SITUATION IS NOT DUE TO TAKEOVER EXERCISE LOH...!!
FOR TAKEOVER EXERCISE...IF THEY FAILED THE SHAREHOLDER SPREAD...BURSA CAN EXEMPT FROM DELISTING, TO PROTECT THE MINORITY MAH....!!
THATS WHY NEED THEY TO CALL EGM, TO TELL BURSA....THAT THE SHAREHOLDERS ESPECIALLY THE MINORITY VOTED FOR DELISTING LOH...!!
Posted by Syndicates > Dec 17, 2017 01:43 PM | Report Abuse
Delisting company need EGM one meh? I don't know. I just know if public spread is less than 25% Bursa will suspend the counter without approval of anyone, unless company itself appeal.
I salute to your fighting spirit, keep on fighting and I'll wait for the better outcome by surrendering my shares at 38sen. I believe if there's any better offer before this stock is delisted, I will still benefit from the new offer.
IF GOT BETTER OFFER COMING...THEN NO NEED TO FIGHT MAH...!!
WE CAN STILL CONSIDER THE BETTER OFFER LOH....!! NO NEED TO ACCEPT NOW LOH...!!
WHAT IF NO BETTER OFFER LEH ?? WE NEED TO GIVE THEM FLYING KICK LOH....!!
NEED TO BE PRACTICAL LOH...!!
Posted by Syndicates > Dec 17, 2017 01:51 PM | Report Abuse
I salute to your fighting spirit, keep on fighting and I'll wait for the better outcome by surrendering my shares at 38sen. I believe if there's any better offer before this stock is delisted, I will still benefit from the new offer.
We all know HSS will try to get 67% by hook or crook comes 29 December...so things will take care by itself from tomorrow onwards...
Depends on how desirous HSS would be, few outcome would happen after the offer period: 1. If acceptance rate is lower than 75%, market price free flow, if fall HSS might purchase at lower price... "The offer price at 38 sens is already low and will not free fall as Hovid has demonstrated a quick return to profitability is the last Qtr. and will definitely shows * better returns in the next few quarters (we are also prepared for temporary disruptions from short-term speculators in the event if HSS fails to achieve 67%(definitely not 75%, otherwise they would not have , then the shares have to be returned to shareholders but that is also a slim possibility...as HSS already has 62.32 as of 15/12 and will not simply give up after spending so such time, money and efforts...)"
*See profitability trend below: 2013 Profit of RM20.327 million 2014 Profit of RM18.084 million 2015 Profit of RM20.909 million 2016 Profit of RM17.896 million 2017 Loss of RM1.528 million (loss incurred due to revocation of manufacturing licence and not loss due to lack of demand)
Now since the Manufacturing licence has been reinstated and manufacturing capacity has increased by 200%,, I can only see growth and profitability for Hovid for 2018 and beyond! otherwise Tael Partners would not has identified Hovid's as a growth oriented investment ripe for acquisition camouflaged as "Privatisation Exercise". Once they successfully acquire Hovid at a bargain price, they will sell their shares profitably to the highest bidder or relist again as a new entity in one to 2 years time.
Hovid bounced back very fast...The latest quarter to quarter profits increase by 133.5% to RM2.155 million which is a sign of recovery...the next few quarters will show even better profitability once the extra capacity from Chemor plant is ready by December, as the factories are running at 24 hours which means plenty of orders to meet!
2. If acceptance rate is higher than 75%, HSS opt for delisting, forcing you to compromise with him.
"HSS has to compromise with the minority (to get their consent for delisting according to Bursa rules) and not the otherway round as in the improbable event of getting 75% for this first round."
PART C – WITHDRAWAL OF LISTING AND DE-LISTING BY THE EXCHANGE 16.05 Withdrawal of listing (1) The Exchange may grant a listed issuer’s request for withdrawal from the Official List. (2) The Exchange will notify the SC of any decision to approve a request for withdrawal from the Official List. 16.06 Request for withdrawal (1) Subject to paragraph 16.07, a listed issuer may not request to withdraw its listing from the Official List, unless - (a) the listed issuer convenes a general meeting to obtain its shareholder or unit holder approval and a separate meeting for the approval of the holders of any other class of listed securities, if applicable and the circular sent to the shareholders or unit holders and the holders of any other class of listed securities includes the information set out in Part A of Appendix 16A. The draft circular must be submitted to the Exchange together with a checklist showing compliance with Part A of Appendix 16A; (b) the resolution for the withdrawal of its listing is approved by a majority in number representing three fourths (75%) in value of the shareholders or unit holders and holders of any other class of listed securities, if applicable, present and voting either in person or by proxy at the meetings and provided that such shareholders or unit holders and holders of any other class of listed securities who object to the withdrawal is not more than 10% of the value of the shareholders or unit holders and holders of any other class of listed securities present and voting either in person or by proxy. Where the constituent document of the listed issuer imposes a stricter condition in respect of the votes required to approve the withdrawal of listing, such stricter condition will apply in substitution of the foregoing provision; http://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/system/assets/5001/listing_requireme...
3. HSS being kindness and desperate to collect 100%, negotiate with us and offer a better price for all people including those who have already accepted the offer. This might need HSS to write a request to SC for approval.
"We will only cross the bridge after HSS has proven that he is able gather 67% first, next hurdle 75% and last hurdle 90%)"
Yes, this would be a similar case to hovid. I'm telling that if HSS got more than 75% of shares at the end of this offer period, Bursa will suspend without minority's approval. Dont get me wrong, suspension and delisting is two different thing. If a company's public spread is less than 25%, company itself must come out a plan to make sure spread is above 25% otherwise it would remain suspended, minority cannot do anything with it. Minority can vote against on delisting if EGM is held. *I admit my fault on lack of knowledge on delisting on my comment earlier.*
Chances of HSS revise a new price before final date (29dec) is low, not only due to rule's restriction (15dec being the last day of revision), but also he can achieve 67% by conversion of his own warrant. I think that's the reason why he set condition rate to 67%, no more or less, because he want to secure the deal. But why no less, I have no idea.
Only if he is desperate to take back 100% of shares, he will do revise offer price after the end of final date. Just like HWANG. Referring to HWANG's case, it took another year to get a new offer price. I have no idea how much the new price would be, but there's risk and opportunity cost involved. Fighter can continue to fight, non-fighter can surrender the shares now. Fighting!!!
"We will only cross the bridge after HSS has proven that he is able gather 67% first, next hurdle 75% and last hurdle 90%)"
Quote "I'm telling that if HSS got more than 75% of shares at the end of this offer period, Bursa will suspend without minority's approval. Dont get me wrong, suspension and delisting is two different thing. If a company's public spread is less than 25%, company itself must come out a plan to make sure spread is above 25% otherwise it would remain suspended, minority cannot do anything with it. Minority can vote against on delisting if EGM is held. *I admit my fault on lack of knowledge on delisting on my comment earlier.* "
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stockraider
31,556 posts
Posted by stockraider > 2017-12-16 22:09 | Report Abuse
U MUST UNDERSTAND THE ENEMY IS PREPARING FOR A 2 STAGE GAME LOH...!!
STAGE 1- BRING UP THEIR SHAREHOLDING TO AROUND 70% LEVEL, THRU REDUCE HURDLE LOH...!!
STAGE 2- STAGE ANOTHER TAKEOVER ATTEMPT 9 MTHS TO 1 YR LATER LOH...!!
RAIDER ADVICE THAT 67% TO 70% SHAREHOLDING OF THE MAJOR SHAREHOLDER IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION MAH.....!!
JUST IMAGINE, IF NOT SUCCESSFUL IF U HANG ON TO HOVID WITH SHORT SUPPLY, ON THE BALANCE 30% IT IS VERY VALUABLE MAH....!!
U MAY CONSIDER BUYING SOME & HANG ON TOO IT LOH...!!
Points to ponder over:
1. There are actually still 820,889,000 (assuming no conversion of more warrants) - 549,995,630 = 270,893,370 or 2,708,933 lots or 2,708k lots of free floating Hovid shares out there. The reason why out of this 2,708k lots of free floating Hovid shares, the required 571k lots (only 21.09% of free floating shares) of shares is not on selling queue, is because the current buying price is not right?
2. It doesn't makes sense for a stingy person to convert the warrants owned, which entails a cash payment of ( 140,390,220 x 0.18 = RM25,270,240) to Hovid and also enlarge the % shares base?
3. While it is true they may not increase the offer price above 38 sens for those who have accepted their Offer. Those shareholders who have not accepted their Offer can continue to trade on Bursa and obtain better price than 38 sens depending on market demand, as with only 67%, HSS can no longer apply to delist Hovid.
In the short term to 29 December, in order achieve at least 67% in order to keep the shares of those who have accepted HSS's offer earlier, the share price of Hovid may increase higher than 38 sens due to supply and demand situation.
* There are many ways to keep tabs on the % of shares HSS has from the base of 62%...
1. Any open market purchases by major shareholder (HSS) needs to be announced to Bursa.
2. AGM 19/12
3. "Showhand" day on 27/12, before making the final decision