Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-06 22:00 | Report Abuse

i more confident to hold

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-07 15:35 | Report Abuse

Thanks Simn2020, for adding the clarity to Hovid shares transaction.

Nobody for now willing to buy Hovid at 38 cents and if this continuous, what other direction are we anticipating ?

How can Hovid price be pushed up besides a better offer by HSS?

Posted by simon2020 > 2017-12-07 16:23 | Report Abuse

Read this presentation below for roadmap to the future value of Hovid which can be 76 sens or more due to earning potential in 2018 onwards from patents cliff and Hovid registration of new generic drugs... only issue is that people are scared to commit above 38 sens since the privatisation exercise is still on...all things being equal...things will be clearer by 15 December the last date for HSS to make a better offer?

THE FUTURE OF GENERIC DRUGS & HOVID BERHAD TAKEOVER OFFER
Author: ValinV | Publish date: Fri, 1 Dec 2017, 12:07 AM

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/fixmy/140068.jsp

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-07 16:41 | Report Abuse

simon2020,

That is "future earning prediction" whist it's not evident for the price to be 76 cents yet.

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-07 16:54 | Report Abuse

I will wait towards 15 Dec then

Posted by ah_kit > 2017-12-07 23:37 | Report Abuse

If the major shareholders still remain the price and can't reach 75% by 29th Dec, I bet the share price will be thrown down to around 20 cents on 2nd Jan 2018 when market reopens. I'm waiting for the bargain to collect some and keep for 2-3 years for the profit to start kicking in. A great company to keep in the long term!

Posted by Wuzy > 2017-12-08 12:58 | Report Abuse

@ah_kit Really? Waiting price break 30 cents, then sapu.

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 14:18 | Report Abuse

ah_kit, this is scary. Some of us holding at 33-37......

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 14:40 | Report Abuse

it doesn't make any sense if the shares will down to 20 cts.

HSS have set a benchmark, and it is very lightly will go under.

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 14:45 | Report Abuse

simon2020, why got people like ak kit think this way? Can share?

Posted by smartly > 2017-12-08 16:02 | Report Abuse

only when they can't obtain 75% and no offer for second price, then only there might be some price fluctuation. worst off could be back to around 31c, not as drastic as 20c :p

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 16:18 | Report Abuse

I was thinking the same too

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 16:22 | Report Abuse

My opinion, they will make sure to delist no matter what

Posted by Wuzy > 2017-12-08 16:24 | Report Abuse

No need worry, worst case price won't reach around 20 cents, he just bluffing.

Posted by wannabeinvestor > 2017-12-08 16:34 | Report Abuse

can they just keep on extending the time period?

Posted by Daily8 > 2017-12-08 16:34 | Report Abuse

Why got ppl wanna make other sell geh?? u oll think david stupid kah? he will wallop u all by giving u his feet. his last price is 38. better sell ler, no or yes?

Posted by Wuzy > 2017-12-08 18:02 | Report Abuse

If you think David Ho will fail privatize company, then hold. Don't let evil people change your decision. Fact is in i3 forum a lot evil anonymous, hahaha

Posted by Wuzy > 2017-12-08 18:05 | Report Abuse

If company really going to privatize, price will go up to 40 cents++ (based on those success privatize company trade history).

Posted by ah_kit > 2017-12-08 18:06 | Report Abuse

@sitia My advice is to sell out in the open market now and cash out your profit, and look for opportunity to buy back at discount on January. what makes you think that HSS will want to "make sure to delist no matter what"? The company current PE ratio is -88! If your purchase price is less than 36cents, I will say just cash out now in the open market since the downside risk is greater than the upside potential gains. As for waiting for a higher offer price, I do not see much possibility since RM is quite strong now, the cost is already much higher than what the major shareholder expected and SGD to MYR conversion is costlier now. I believe 29th December is the final deadline for the take over offer. What if it doesnt reach 75%? You are expecting HSS to raise their offer price but from what I see, it's better to be safe than sorry.

Posted by Czarll > 2017-12-08 18:27 | Report Abuse

those still keep ,do u think they will sold u below 0.38 at jan 18 ?

Posted by Czarll > 2017-12-08 18:28 | Report Abuse

0.20?

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 18:57 | Report Abuse

Ah-kit ; I think you are on HSS side. U just created new ID to comment on Hovid.
Are u from Hovid ?

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 18:57 | Report Abuse

Just go back tell your boss; any intention of bringing down the price I will buy...

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 18:59 | Report Abuse

Ah-kit; your boss should know better ; his company cannot be this cheap ma

Posted by ah_kit > 2017-12-08 19:35 | Report Abuse

@sitia, sorry if I bring unpleasant feelings to you but I am trying to let you know the risks. That's all. I'm not from Hovid and the reason I created this account is also to join in this conversation. I'm also same as you hoping that the acceptance rate doesnt reach 75%. But the difference between us is that I'm hoping HSS doesnt make higher offer while you will definitely hope for a higher offer. Anyways, let's wait till 29th see how la. =) All the best!

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-08 21:29 | Report Abuse

I have withdrawn my acceptance and it's going to stay that way. Either Hovid will accept more than 75% is no longer my concern now. Like many, I'll keep it long term.

ah_kit, you're most welcome to join us for follow ups and sharing on Hovid.

Notes taken on you and simon2020.

Posted by hoplanner > 2017-12-08 21:54 | Report Abuse

I hv lost track of how much more HSS needs to reach 75%? How does WB being computed together with its mother shares?

Posted by simon2020 > 2017-12-08 23:07 | Report Abuse

Actually you only need to cross the bridge after the following important dates:
1. 15 December, the last date for HSS to make a better offer
2. 27 December (HSS needs to "show hand") at least 2 days before 29 December on whether HSS has achieved 75% or not to make his offer Unconditional.
3. The rate of open market sales of Hovid shares has dropped steadily, that why there are new promoters to encourage more sales

Also note that, most of the hardcore minority shareholders left are medium to long term shareholders, so short-term fluctuations are of not great concern...

Also refer 3rd last page of presentation below:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ng3ZXNarGoC5gCj-AxpOh0qoyWqgr2J6/view
Scenario 1: Takeover Successful
* Portfolio do not suffer any loss but should book marginal profits, although it comes at grave oppoetunity costs

Scenario 2: Takeover Fails
* Increase price volatlity due to short term market reactions
* Negative connotation to management integrity & intentions
* Potentially longer holding power needed or even value trap
* Delisting stalemate if PAC owns >75% but <90%

Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-09 10:17 | Report Abuse

we need to have our own plan B in case this take over fail. worst scenario = to hold for long term

Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-09 10:17 | Report Abuse

till it back to current price.

Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-09 10:19 | Report Abuse

actually be a minority shareholder after the delisting is not bad. cam refer to YTL Cement. minority iwas getting much more higher dividend

Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-09 10:19 | Report Abuse

after YtL cement delisted.

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-10 03:23 | Report Abuse

I need a final clarification. If Hovid failed to delist, those who have accepted the offer, will they have their shares refunded ..?

Posted by taitaumau > 2017-12-10 09:26 | Report Abuse

To determine whether the shares will be returned or not, one needs to know:-

- On or before closing date, whether the offer becomes unconditional?

If yes,
- those who accept the offer will be paid the offer price.
- Delisting issue will only then set in.

If No
- shares will be credited back to their A/cs


-

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-10 20:41 | Report Abuse

Key note is JO (JOINT OFFEROR) by 27 Dec,

If their offer achieved 75% or NOT (by 50%),
*
*
If JO still keep price at 38 cents (assuming they REFUSED to change the price or increase the price)
*
*
like it or not, once they reached >50% OR >75%,
JO have the power to delist thro approval from Bursa.
*
*
WHOEVER DIDN'T SELL THEIR SHARES ARE FORCED TO SELL AT 38 CENTS REGARDLESS!
..........
(Am I correct?)

from simon2020,
What it basically means is that:
i). If HSS announce that they have achieved 75% or more by 27 December, the offer automatically becomes unconditional (means those who have accepted the offer at the prevailing offer price i.e. 38 sens or more if the offer price is revised will be paid the offer price). However, HSS can also revise the Acceptance Level to lower than 75% but not less than 50%, to make the Offer Unconditional in order to keep the shares (acquired at a relatively cheap price of 38 sens) of those who accepted the offer earlier and pay the prevailing offer price i.e. 38 sens or more).

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-10 20:51 | Report Abuse

* Note:
Why the offerors gave a higher premium of 45.02% for Warrants compared to only 20.55% for Ordinary Shares?, why the disparity in premium offered for Warrants & Ordinary Shares?, if they offer the same premium of 45.02% for Ordinary Shares, the offer price should be 45 sens.
simon2020

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-10 20:52 | Report Abuse

ah_kit If the major shareholders still remain the price and can't reach 75% by 29th Dec, I bet the share price will be thrown down to around 20 cents on 2nd Jan 2018 when market reopens. I'm waiting for the bargain to collect some and keep for 2-3 years for the profit to start kicking in. A great company to keep in the long term!

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-10 20:54 | Report Abuse

ah_kit @sitia, sorry if I bring unpleasant feelings to you but I am trying to let you know the risks. That's all. I'm not from Hovid and the reason I created this account is also to join in this conversation. I'm also same as you hoping that the acceptance rate doesnt reach 75%. But the difference between us is that I'm hoping HSS doesnt make higher offer while you will definitely hope for a higher offer. Anyways, let's wait till 29th see how la. =) All the best!
08/12/2017 19:35

why do you hope they HSS doesn't make higher offer???

I think any humanbeing will want a better offer price right?

Can you explain please? You have sold your shares right? (because you hope they don't offer higher price?

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-10 20:57 | Report Abuse

By 15th Dec, direction is CLEARER.

Hope HSS can give a better offer please.

Posted by Wuzy > 2017-12-11 12:25 | Report Abuse

I expect price will go up beyond 40 cents before due date.

Posted by Daily8 > 2017-12-11 17:51 | Report Abuse

Not sure how true Wuzy!

Posted by wongchin > 2017-12-11 19:38 | Report Abuse

I think hovid share price might increase if they offerer cant secure the 75% by a small magin. Cos they might use proxies to buy a small amount in the open market to close the deal

Posted by lcwin > 2017-12-11 20:24 | Report Abuse

let me tell you guy 75% is definitely in the bag based on their shareholding of around 90% warrants now.
So please make decisions based on this info.
I also notice if major shareholder want to take private a klse cpy almost all is successful as most will let the stock price down for a long time, report losses and other hankypanky. Go and see the latest scam by OSK to privatised PJ dev and you get what I mean.
Good luck you will need it

Posted by Tze Xin Tze Yiu > 2017-12-11 21:41 | Report Abuse

When people buy I will sell, when people sell I will buy.

Posted by kevin5059 > 2017-12-11 22:39 | Report Abuse

lcwin, please refer to the calculation on posted on 21st Nov. With 100% Warrant only manage to get them around 68%. HSS and fajar need another 78 million units of mother share in order for them to get 75% even they had acquired the full 100% of warrant. Remember, if they converting all the warrant into mother share, the total number of public shares will increase too.

Posted by sitia > 2017-12-11 23:04 | Report Abuse

The coming 15 Dec, is crucial

Posted by Czarll > 2017-12-12 01:44 | Report Abuse

Let the price down for long time?
The hold take over project near 300million ,How many interest hss need to pay bank ?How fajar explain to investor jammed their fund ?
How many people will collect when hovid price down ?

Posted by simon2020 > 2017-12-12 10:13 | Report Abuse

The buy queue at 37 sens is already twice that at 37.5 sens today..but not many sellers..if HSS really wants to achieve 75% by 29 Dec, he better ups the offer price asap..

Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-12 10:52 | Report Abuse

pls correct me if i am wrong...holder need to pay abt 0.19 to convert warrant into ordinary shares an

Posted by multi530 > 2017-12-12 11:09 | Report Abuse

HSS's conversion costs will be offer price 0.20 plus 0.19=0.39