You have to be careful with Hovid. Do not think for a minute that with a high USD dollar and increase capsule capacity of 30% next few months and upto 70% in 2016 is going to increase revenue/profits.
Firstly, revenue is not going to increase (except for the USD strength) because Hovid has not tendered for new business JUST YET. That could take months and years. You should be cautious and may assume new business contracts to come in end 2016 or 2017.
Secondly, increase capacity will lead to increase depreciation and profit increases that are minimal unless supported by NEW CONTRACTS.
Thirdly, taking into account the projected forecasts, you would be looking at 43-45sen FV. Anything above is goreng or high TP dreams.
Finally, from experience and Hovid's founder actions, he would use the analyst to maintain a range bound price, if price exceeds a certain level, out come some analyst report on Hovid.
The disposal will not have any effect on the issued and paid-up share capital and the shareholdings of the substantial shareholders of Hovid, and will not have any material effect on the earnings and net assets of Hovid Group for the year ending June 30, 2014. However, the gearing of Hovid Group is expected to improve as Biodeal Pharmaceuticals’ liabilities will no longer be included in the Hovid Group.
2 major catalyst for hovid that cause today fly up and high posibility tomorrow break 0.50.
1. on 7.4.2015 HOVID have finally settle deal on disposal of company in INDIA and get INR 300MIL. Which is expected to improve company gearing mentioned by them.
2. Bioalpha Holdings Berhad IPO will be listed in Bursa Malaysia soon. Today news annouced its IPO oversubscribe by 30x + . When listing it should have revaluation in these pharmaceutical industry.
HOVID hari ini break new high closing 0.48. HOVID-WB closing 0.29. HOVID-WB Maturity Date: 5/6/2018 Exercise Price: 0.18 HOVID-WB closing 0.29 + exercise price 0.18 = 0.47. Murah 1 Cent ! Bila HOVID sampai 0.60, HOVID-WB paling kurang pun 0.42 !! (sekarang 0.29, ada 44% keuntungan bila sampai 0.42 !!) HOVID sangat potensi naik sampai 0.60-1.0 kerana kilang baru akan siap diguna dan dapat naik revenue 30%. Pada 7/4/2015 annoucement, HOVID berjaya jual company di INDIA dan untung 5-7 juta. Dapat improve gearing company, kurang liability. BIOALPHA IPO oversubscribe 30x pun akan naikan valuation industri pharmaceutical. Oleh itu, biasanya warrant ialah jalan lebih mahal daripada company, tapi HOVID-WB ini belum lagi jalan sampai over harga HOVID. Esok tentu break 0.30 ! INGAT ! BILA HOVID sampai 0.60, HOVID-WB 0.42 (0.42-0.29=0.13/0.29=44% untung)
60sen? Maybe in 2019. goyang telor investors dream alot, looking at macd, dmi, etc. everyday. to bid for new contracts, the client will have to come and see new capacity/capsule line when will the new facility be up and running at 70%? 2H 2016. Give 9 months to bid for tender, you are looking at 2017. By that time, 1st Sanofi contract is going to end, no option to extend. End of day, the same revenue numbers (or maybe lower due to lower USD by that time) but with higher factory costs.Profit margins and value will be lower.
The only thing going for Hovid is at FDA approval. Then again, how many know the patent holder is CAROTECH?
Kantoi!
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
LaoLiu
1,307 posts
Posted by LaoLiu > 2015-04-07 16:37 | Report Abuse
Gotta agree, breakthrough 0.450, Hovid will go up higher to reach a "New High", volume coming.