haha... Good one PotentialGhost... I think u r not the ghost, the potential phost is "uptrending"....
see - again with "my 2 cents comment... up to you.. not asking u to buy or sell... bla bla bla..." typical "noble monk speech".... but r u really that noble? why waste so much time here being so noble? we all know your intention....
let me bring up one point to discuss...
Automation: - let's think what kind of industry is worth to be transitioned to "automation" vs "man labor" - When I said "worth", think about the start-up, operation, maintenance, etc costs to sustain automation versus human labor to see if it is a more cost effective method or more expensive method
one of the industries would be: - require high precision, zero human handling error (in this case, automation may not drive down the production cost, but.. for longer span of business, it saves RMA (reject, return, service, etc) costs
I cut loss @1.17 and warrants @40sen as soon as I know of softwearautomation.com in early Nov., and the news actually came out in Aug 17 on the success of softwearautomation.com Only regreted didnt know it earler..
Btw, softwearautomation.com now can only service the US market... I never bot magni but this prolexus. Magni share price has also come down substantially...
I did warn much earlier but didn't say it so clearly...
I may not be right but the fund managers are selling ...
furthermore , I actually kept 30% of the warrants as an insurance in case of I was wrong in my suspicions and judgement.
when it was announced that the plant in Vietnam was put on hold until further notice, I sold the balance warrants without hesitation @36 sen average...
I said bye now and I reversed my very bullish view as could be read from my early posts.
The fact that a company that is building a RM119 garment factory is valued at only 160m.
Is that an error of the market or the error of the management.
Is the management supposed to expand as per how much the business can take it, or as per how much some random people say your company is worth?
Don't be foolish.
Posted by noah > Dec 26, 2017 11:46 PM | Report Abuse
RM119m garment factory is simply way too ambitious for a company with RM160m market cap. they should start with a smaller scale eg. RM50m and scale up phase by phase. incur less initial start up cost and depreciation.
I wonder if people looked at the fundamentals of this company when they bought their shares or just because some people thought it would fly right after they bought ?
Is the management supposed to expand as per how much the business can take it, or as per how much some random people say your company is worth? --------
If you are there during the 1997 crisis. Many companies go burst due to this situation. the management making maximum leverage to expand as per how much the business can take it.
Do you feel comfortable when a management used up most of its hard cash conserved over the years plus maybe made some debts along the process for a garment factory which is ~75% of the company's market cap or 55% of BV if you say market is inefficient wrongly priced your darling Prlexus ?
agreed with noah..management should start from small scale unless they have "a must" reason. RM119 garment factory with RM160 market capital, like "snake swallow elephant-蛇吞大象" Indigestion or choked to death!
noah, I don't see Jon Choivo was cursing you, in fact, you are the one who did it.. no need to argue too much, everyone has his own views.
to me, the management is doing quite well with their risk management plan so far...
why i said so?
I don't think they are over confident and being too risky...
1) They first planned to build the Vietnam Garment Factory 2) then, they dare to put that on hold (knowing that this would cause ppl sell down their shares). 3) They do this for the sake of the company and the shareholders... instead of being too risky and over-confident, they decided to put that on hold... they did their risk assessment. 4) they put the focus back on the fabric mill. 5) why? even if they can't consume all the fabric (in current plan, they definitely cannot consume all internally), they can still sell the excess to 3 parties. 6) they can save raw material costs (vertical integration) and can earn profit by selling the extra fabric.
these few days I keep collecting Prlexus and another share.. these 2 shares are well undervalued at this point.. there is another share that i may also collect as it is also dirt cheap now...
dolly. as you can see my previous comment. none of it is personal.
we are just discussing an issue. agree or against the point. no point to get personal on it and calling others 'foolish' as that Jon did.
as for the management's decision.
don't think its the right thing to used up all your cash to set up a mill that will generate loss in the short term.
long term yes the mill might benefit them, but with such massive capex invested, used up all cash and near term negative factors eg strengthening of RM, UA sales drop etc. are you sure you can survive the short term in order to achieve the long term benefit?
noah, understood... but tell me what business/expansion will not see "gestation period" at the ramp-up stage that incurs some loss in the short term? even if you are selling nasi lemak on your first few days, u still incur loss for the small capex you invested (for pans, pots, containers, utensils, etc)... what more if the business scale is much bigger?
the key point is what is the payback period? look at latest 2017 annual report, the chairman hinted that the positive growth will be seen in 2019.. yes, in 2018 (short term) u dont see positive growth... but if u r a long term value investors, can u wait for a few years?
u may be thinking that: ohhh.. i wait till end of 2018 then only i buy Prlexus shares... come on... market is not that stupid... by then ppl already accumulated enough and the share price has gone up..
buy it when it is at the coldest period, that u know one day it will turn hot again...
but pls do not expect very good results... as management had indicated, due to start-up cost of the fabric mill, 2018 results may be impacted.. but on garment segment, it should still be profitable...
Key takeaway from AGM: The industry is now heavily disrupted. Fabric mill to commence operation by July 2018. Expecting worse sales but not by too much. Nike is reducing order by a lot while others are increasing by a little. Engaged mainly in running & training attire. Fabric mill do soft fabric not sewn. According to MD, not afraid of competition or automation. Trump tax cut bring biz back to US. E-commerce division in China seems to be in plan but from what I hear, they have no clue what they are doing. Only a store at Tmall. (I asked them to look into Baozun, MD gave me his number :p ) Fabric could sell for $1.5 to $3 per meter but initially they will sell cheap to attract customers. Business depend on North America but now they want to look at China.
In short, MD was honest to tell me that current situation is very challenging, all his previous plans disrupted by Trump. Business is only expected to improve from 2019 onwards if they are lucky. If you are willing to wait till 2021, you could still profit but I think it is too uncertain.
Conclusion, better cut lost if you own the shares, if you feel that you got the patience and holding power go ahead, but I will like to say that if you wish to see a fruitful result you must hold till year 2020 at least( mark my words).
Apolloang life mission is left any bad comments after bad result released , life still long ,but i sure one day Apolloang will kena (mark my word) kekeke
Guy even lose money also don't be pessimistic , life still long 。 earn money sap sap sui
Stop talking about World Cup. World Cup has no close to zero impact on revenue of NIKE, PROLEXUS or MAGNI. If you do not believe me, go and compile NIKE revenue history.
If you are hoping for world cup to improve the revenue, good luck.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
PotentialGhost
1,258 posts
Posted by PotentialGhost > 2017-12-27 16:01 | Report Abuse
Must save before price fall , don't save after price fall , after price fall 40% you lagi keluar cakap , apa guna? Saya pun dau