This Armada IR lembik. EnQuest IR immediately give response.
Armada IR email acknowledgement pun takde. Report problem without impact accessment, no target timeline at all buka open cheque for public guessing the impact.
Production restarted by phases no update also.
Hello Ardanan Krishna, fire your Bumi IR department please. Especially that Tengku with misai one.
For traders target for long term any price below 50c should be a good value hunting but for short term sprinter any chance Hit 5c profits should sell and wait for another round. BA definitely will hit back above 60c B4 end of the year.Time to make some money for Christmas.
Rangers For traders target for long term any price below 50c should be a good value hunting but for short term sprinter any chance Hit 5c profits should sell and wait for another round. BA definitely will hit back above 60c B4 end of the year.Time to make some money for Christmas. 14/06/2023 1:19 AM
The Armada Kraken, recently named at Keppel’s yard in Singapore, is a harsh-environment FPSO which has a design life of 25 years without dry-docking.
The vessel is able to handle a peak fluid rate of 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 80,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), 275,000 bpd of water injection, 20 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of gas handling and has a storage capacity of 600,000 barrels.
its like you own a 80 rated equipment and gets rental rate for 15 rated equipment not too good
15,000/80,000
either Enquest paying too much or Armada getting too little, both unhappy
Both are bound by contract. => It takes only a small incident to blow it up just like Woodside
as sslee says, its excellent for Bintang beer only but dun get too serious about Armada
With the receivables 4.5b just almost on par to pay off total borrowings of 4.5b in next few years, does it mean there wont be any dividend payout expected in next few years?
The borrowings interest seems quite high USD Term loan - floating rate 7.85% (3.55% in 2021) Sukuk 6.35% (fix rate) And more than 50% of it has to be repaid within 2 years
Patient you have to post your concern on interest rate in Yinson`s forum. Armada debts level at very comfortable level now.
Posted by Patient Investor > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse
Based on Annual Report FY2022
With the receivables 4.5b just almost on par to pay off total borrowings of 4.5b in next few years, does it mean there wont be any dividend payout expected in next few years?
The borrowings interest seems quite high USD Term loan - floating rate 7.85% (3.55% in 2021) Sukuk 6.35% (fix rate) And more than 50% of it has to be repaid within 2 years
Perhaps along the cash flow can sustain debt repayment and pay down borrowings, they will be doing fine.
4.5b avg 7.5% only 330million. armada operating cash flow is 1.4billion. They still have acces of 1billion to par down the debt, and further reduce the interest.
So, they have ONLY 1 (one) healthy transformer on the Kraken, that is online now. 3 other failed. One failed likely long ago, another on May 20, and one the day after, when restarting. That is only best guess. But it is all we have. Anouncement is purposely vague.
Now, it is fun to live on the edge, isn't it ? Production may stop at any time and there will be absolutely no mean to restore it. But there is some positive too. While FPSO is producing, the procurement and operations people are making calls, emailing, catching up with friends. They may be even calling in a favor. Search is on. So replacement will be found eventually. My bet is they find replacement or fix one before the last one fails. And every day is working in our favor. With shut in, every day was increasing our loss. That is changing loss into a possible win.
For now, they are operating at roughly 50% capacity. Will take a while (anywhere between 1 to 6 months) to get back to full production.
The good thing is, at 50% production, Bumi Armada will still get paid. Loss per day will be around RM1mil, compared to loss per day of around RM2mil before this during the shut-in.
The worst case scenario is over, now a matter of how fast the faulty transformers can be swapped out.
The good thing is, these transformers cost less than RM1m each, so rather cheap.
It is not the cost the transformer that is high. But rather the cost of getting it offshore, lifting it, and installing it on the FPSO that will be many times over the cost of the transformer itself. But even that will be nothing compared to the loss incurred from charter hire loss for a prolonged period even in weeks.
Reservoir is already depleted. 50% of capacity is the new 100%. Nobody will attempt to produce 80 Boepd any more. Your guess is as good as mine about what can be achieved. One note is that there are 3 x 33% charge pumps (each with transformer). So even 1 pump is capable of 80 / 3 = 26.7 Boepd. That is good enough, these days. I recall production was not high lately, though availability was 95%.
Even at 33% we are relatively ok, no comparing to shut in. At least reservoir is not deteriorating, pipes are cleared of plugs, doglegs are avoided, corrosion prevented to some extend, etc.
Made on basis of official information submitted to the UK Gov. May not be up to date. ___________________________
EnQuest’s Kraken Field Description EnQuest’s Kraken Field is in the northern North Sea in UKCS Block 09/02b, approximately 126 kilometres (km) east of the nearest UK coastline and approximately 46 km west of the UK/Norway median line, in a water depth of between approximately 108 metres (m) and 125 m.
The Kraken Area is developed as three separate fields, Kraken North, Kraken Central and Kraken South. A total of 14 horizontal production wells and 11 horizontal water injector wells are tied back to a Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO). Because it is a ‘heavy oil’ development, all the production wells require artificial lift using Hydraulic Submersible Pumps (HSPs), which are powered from the FPSO.
The production wells are tied-back to four production manifolds, each connected to two production flowlines, a HSP power fluid flowline and a control umbilical tied-back to the FPSO; and the water injection wells are tied-back to three water injection manifolds, each connected to a single water injection flowline and a control umbilical tied-back to the FPSO. Oil is exported via a shuttle tanker on a fortnightly basis. The anticipated field life is 25 years, and the maximum recoverable reserves are estimated to be 185.2 million standard barrels (MMstb) or 24.72 million tonnes of heavy oil. Based on the projected P10 (highest) recovery rate, it is estimated that oil production in the first year of approximately 11,100 tonnes per day (t/d), increasing in the second year to approximately 11,900 t/d, will be gradually decreasing to approximately 819 t/d by 2039.
The facilities are gas deficient from start up, and power demand is initially met using the associated gas and crude oil as fuels, However, EnQuest proposed to import gas via the Bressay / Vesterled pipeline system from 2018. For most of the field life, the FPSO will require approximately 240 t/d of crude oil or 2.8 million to 3.1 million cubic metres (m³) of imported gas as fuel.
Fraught with relatively complex issues since inception, just hope this issue will be solved and production resumes at meaningful levels within 3 months, if not already. Otherwise, anything can happen when the cards start to fall: prolonged production outages, huge financial losses, contract termination by customer, impairment loss, share plunging to 30sen.
Pump transformer kaput. Repair also still kaput. Then announced. Share price dove down free falling. This is not on the shelf item like gula and gandum. It is called a long lead item. Long time to arrive after order - 4 to 6 months. Idling hegeh2 no production. Share price will get worse b4 it gets better.
0.415 bottom Rebound top now 0.45/0.455. Will retest 0.415 and break.
I think they try to execute the shut down Turn around TAR maintenance which suppose to be in Q3, to minimize the lost time, but TAR also need to be pre-prepared with all those parts/spares, which might not be available in short notice, overall, situation is very challenging, hope to hear some update from EQ Forum, maybe someone working on FPSO can share some update, Bumi is not going to make any announcement soon unless it is a positive one, which is not forth coming at this time.
I think we should wait for EQ announcement, as previously they said no product material impact, but longer the pump is down, the more production down, it will have material impact sooner. We hope the transformer is as easy as changing car oil filter. LOL
1 day $450,000 loss income, 30 days = RM60,000,000 loss. or RM24M to the bottom line each month. After this, the rate will go down due to SLA uptime criteria, that is why Bumi know this is going to be very material impact to the earning.
rr88 is a piece of … I remember he saying sell Supermax at 3.5, 5 etc but he could only buy 1000 units of HLT! He might forget but the internet doesn’t
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Felix888
3,368 posts
Posted by Felix888 > 2023-06-13 22:15 | Report Abuse
This Armada IR lembik. EnQuest IR immediately give response.
Armada IR email acknowledgement pun takde. Report problem without impact accessment, no target timeline at all buka open cheque for public guessing the impact.
Production restarted by phases no update also.
Hello Ardanan Krishna, fire your Bumi IR department please. Especially that Tengku with misai one.