Posted by behindthescene > 2013-05-28 22:10 | Report Abuse

any update on tm cu?

Posted by passerby > 2013-05-29 11:04 | Report Abuse

tomorrow is the earning report

Posted by iwan1991 > 2013-05-29 11:08 | Report Abuse

what report??

Posted by passerby > 2013-05-29 11:10 | Report Abuse

earning report....if good, recover your bullet, if no good , bite the bullet

public going for offensive pick, no longer defensive pick ...only during uncertain period defensive pick is favorable. that is my opinion

Posted by iwan1991 > 2013-05-29 11:13 | Report Abuse

so what is the favourite price?? o.o2?? and what ur opinion bot the report>>

Posted by passerby > 2013-05-29 11:20 | Report Abuse

if it can approach the strike price...i'll consider to re-enter

report, no comment

Posted by iwan1991 > 2013-05-29 11:22 | Report Abuse

whats the strike price??

Posted by passerby > 2013-05-29 11:28 | Report Abuse

Maturity Date 30/09/2013
Exercise/Strike/Conversion Price MYR 6.0000
Exercise/ Conversion Ratio 4 : 1

strike at RM 6.00, if mother share close anything below that upon maturity, all the CU will become toilet paper

Posted by iwan1991 > 2013-05-29 11:31 | Report Abuse

still a long way to go... hehehe

Posted by nanoman > 2013-05-30 12:54 | Report Abuse

result out already....revenue, profit, eps drop. bite the bullet this afternoon....save whatever troops remaining for other battle

Posted by behindthescene > 2013-05-31 14:32 | Report Abuse

mother had strong buying support after Q result. CU stil got hope weii.....

Posted by passerby > 2013-05-31 14:35 | Report Abuse

not sure....doesn't suite my risk appetite now....

Posted by passerby > 2013-07-04 23:01 | Report Abuse

less than 3 more months...very very risky wor...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-05 08:09 | Report Abuse

Call warrant is about gambling. Gambling must be interesting. An interesting gamble comes with high risk, and the accompanied potential high return. TM CU at 1 sen, with the high leverage of 134 times at the underlying share price of 5.39, is exciting to punt indeed.

TM needs to go up by 11.3% to 6.00 in order for CU to be in the money; quite a tall order for such a short time of less than 3 months. But once it goes up closed to that value, CU's price would go up extremely fast. For example, if TM goes up by another 8 sen to 6.08, CU holders make 100%. If TM goes up to 6.20, holders make 400%; and TM at 6.50, CU holders make 1150%!

Yeah, a tall order. But in the share market, never say never.

But don't be greedy if you like to punt. Just bet a few thousand dollars.

Disclaimer: This is not an advice to punt.

Posted by Feimaw > 2013-08-05 22:13 | Report Abuse

miracle

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-20 18:32 | Report Abuse

it is a K.O in the end....move on friends

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-20 18:40 | Report Abuse

No doubt it is K.O. But in gambling, one must know things can go K.O, then it is O.K.

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-20 22:58 | Report Abuse

So in your opinion , warrant trader = gambling? :)

The battle for TM-CU is lost, what can you conclude from this pick? Any post mortem analysis from your side?

I can conclude one = highly geared CW might not be winning pick, some important elements are missing

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 09:10 | Report Abuse

Are you talking about structured call warrant? I can't put myself to say call warrant traders are investing. I have never used the phrase "investing in call warrant".

What can i conclude? Well you win some you lose some. Important you must know the risk. And very important one must know how the value of call warrants is derived from. Take the game as a chance to win big but if things do turn out the way you hope to, don't lose a fortune.

By the way, I have never said highly geared CW is a winning pick. Yes, there are other factors involved which I have described at length.

One other important thing is the market participation. Most call warrants have little participation from the retail punters. So if we have to depend on the market makers to provide the liquidity, it becomes a very uneven playing field. The way the market makers are behaving, I think I would leave the playing field too.

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-21 10:59 | Report Abuse

hmmn...I'm trying to say that warrant traders are not gamblers for both SW & company warrant. Coz gambling to my understanding, you leave everything to luck, but in warrant trading, it is not purely on luck.

I enter battlefield to make money, if i'm ain't making money, I'll make sure I gained some invaluable information from the fallen fights.

The following environments should be created before we go into the battlefield in my opinion :-

1) the crowd / public are bullish on the underlying, not when warrant trader are bullish on the underlying or analysts are bullish on underlying.

2) speculation elements are present - hostile takeover, corporate exercise, some speculated reason might cause the underlying to move higher or theme play, etc

3) hedging are require (hardly in use locally, usually for put warrant), so we just leave this aside.

At the time when we discussed about the TM-CU, non of the above environments exist for TM underlying, hence I'm in my opinion, the battle should not take place at the first place.

Those parameters/Greek should only come in as secondary screening after the above conditions are satisfy. Coz those parameters / Greeks will determine which battle ground where all the warriors will gather to fight. You want liquidity, you get your liquidity there. Even if you don't get your liquidity, your chances against market maker is higher as chances for underlying to move is higher if conditions (1) & (2) are present( exception for AM Bank IB - SW, this "chow ka" market maker are notorious to reduce the premium base from over 30% to below 10% even when underlying move significantly )

If the parameters / Greeks are good without the above conditions - it is a meaningless battle to me - that is purely gambling / depending on luck

If there is one & only battleground, when condition (1) & (2) are created....does the parameters still important ? I'm not sure if you ever observe this playing field behavior...it is something worth to observe.

If you checked back all the fallen battles , they share something in common. Knowing the existing failed attempts = preventing similar outcome in the future. We should share more fallen attempts here.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 12:51 | Report Abuse

I would like to discuss with you constructively on warrants here as it is hard to find one in i3 like you to discuss about it to share knowledge and experience.

Ok I agree with you that the word “gambling” is not appropriate. I would amend my term from “gambling” to “speculating”. That is the way I look at structured warrants as I take risks when it appears to me that the odds are in my favour, i.e. speculating.

Regarding the environments you are talking about. Here are my views:

1) the crowd / public are bullish on the underlying, not when warrant trader are bullish on the underlying or analysts are bullish on underlying.
THIS IS TRUE . IT IS ALSO TRUE FOR INVESTING IN STOCKS. HOWEVER IF THE CROWD/PUBLIC ARE BULLISH ON THE UNDERLYING STOCK, I DOUBT YOU CAN GET CHEAP WARRANTS TO BUY. ULTIMATELY IT IS WHETHER YOU HAVE BOUGHT THE WARRANTS ON THE CHEAP THEN ONLY CAN MAKE MONEY. SO ONE CAN ONLY MAKE BIG MONEY IF HE IS DIFFERENT FROM THE CROWD AND OF COURSE HE MUST BE RIGHT IN HIS VIEW.

2) speculation elements are present - hostile takeover, corporate exercise, some speculated reason might cause the underlying to move higher or theme play, etc

OF COURSE SPECULATIVE ELEMENTS MUST BE PRSENT BECAUSE BUYING CALL WARRANTS IS ITSELF A SPECULATIVE ENDEAVOUR AS I HAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.
HOWEVER, DO REMEMBER THAT CALL WARRANTS VALUE IS DERIVED FROM TWO PARTS; INTRINSIC VALUE AND TIME VALUE. IF SOMEBODY HOSTILE TAKEOVER, OR THE UNDERLYING COMPANY TAKES IT PRIVATE, UNLESS THE TAKER PRICE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MARKET VALUE, THE WARRANT LOSES ITS TIME VALUE. FOR MANY CALL WARRANTS, THE MAJOR PART OF THERE ARE IN THE TIME VALUE. SO WHEN YOU LOSE THE TIME VALUE, YOU LOSE MONRY IN THE CALL WARRANT WHEN THE COMPANIES ARE TAKEN OVER AT NOT A HIGH PRICE.

3) hedging are require (hardly in use locally, usually for put warrant), so we just leave this aside.

WHO IN BURSA THINKS OF HEDGING USING OPTIONS HERE? HOW MANY PEOPLE KNOWS WHAT HEDGING IS AND HOW TO CARRY OUT HEDGING? INVESTMENT BANKS WHO WRITE THE OPTIONS ONLY DO, WHETHER IT IS CALL OR PUT WARRANTS. RETAIL INVESTORS THINK ABOUT SPECULATING ONLY. IN FACT MOST RETAIL INVESTORS ONLY THINK OF GAMBLING, BECAUSE MANY HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT WHAT ARE THE FACTORS AND HOW ARE THEY INFLUCING THE VALUE OF OPTIONS.

At the time when we discussed about the TM-CU, non of the above environments exist for TM underlying, hence I'm in my opinion, the battle should not take place at the first place.

WHEN I SPECULATE IN TM-CU THEN, MY CRITERIA ARE NOT RELATED TO THE ENVIRONMENTS YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT FOR THE REASONS I HAVE DESCRIBED. I AM HOPING MAY BE THE PUBLIC MAY REVALUE TM UPWARDS MAY BE BECAUSE OF UNEXPECTED HIGHER EARNINGS, BULLISH MARKET LIFTS ITS PRICE, ETC. IN FACT MARKET IS BULLISH AS IT IS ABOVE 1800 POINTS NOW, ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT AFFECT TM.

Those parameters/Greek should only come in as secondary screening after the above conditions are satisfy. Coz those parameters / Greeks will determine which battle ground where all the warriors will gather to fight. You want liquidity, you get your liquidity there. Even if you don't get your liquidity, your chances against market maker is higher as chances for underlying to move is higher if conditions (1) & (2) are present( exception for AM Bank IB - SW, this "chow ka" market maker are notorious to reduce the premium base from over 30% to below 10% even when underlying move significantly )

AS MENTIONED, I DIDN’T CARE ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENTS YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. THEY ARE IRRELEVANT TO ME. IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES, THE MORE IMPORTANT THINGS TO ME ARE THE PREMIUM, TIME TO EXPIRY, GEARING, AND THE LAST BUT NOT LEAST VOLATILITY OF THE UNDERLYING SHARE, OR THE IMPLIED VOLATILITY.

If the parameters / Greeks are good without the above conditions - it is a meaningless battle to me - that is purely gambling / depending on luck

TO ME WITHOUT PAYING ATTENTION TO THE PREMIUM, IMPLIED VOLATILITY, TIME TO EXPIRY WHEN PLAYING CALL WARRANTS IS A GAMBLING. THIS IS BECAUSE YOU HAVE NO CLUE IF YOU HAVE A CHNACE TO WIN.

If there is one & only battleground, when condition (1) & (2) are created....does the parameters still important ? I'm not sure if you ever observe this playing field behavior...it is something worth to observe.

If you checked back all the fallen battles , they share something in common. Knowing the existing failed attempts = preventing similar outcome in the future. We should share more fallen attempts here.

I LOST MONEY IN TM-CU NO DOUBT. BUT LIKE I HAVE SAID, YOU WIN SOME, YOU LOSE SOME.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 14:58 | Report Abuse

Why is the playing field not level?

Let us look at the call warrant Sime CW. Sime was trading at 9.52. Its warrant CW has an exercise price and ratio of 9.40 and 4 respectively. It is expiring on 30/5/2013, a long eight more months to go. The bid and asked prices were 9 sen and 10.5 sen respectively. That means if you want to sell, the investment bank is willing to pay only 9 sen but if you want to buy, you can only get at 10.5 sen , a cool 17% difference. How come such a wide gap?

Actually Sime at 9.52 when CW is at 10.5 sen is not expensive in my opinion because at those price, the premium is only 3.2%, for a relatively long expiry time to come. But can one sell at a reasonable price when he intends to in view of IB's market making behaviour?

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-21 16:31 | Report Abuse

@kcchongnz

1) It is not about getting it cheap. you get cheap, it might go cheaper. When I mentioned crowd/public are bullish - I literally means the underlying is moving at correct direction - TA guy know well when the crowd is bullish. Deploying the value investing strategy - buy & hold for SW & WA trading might not work well. In most of my cases, it were proven to be fatal. As you are aware, time value depreciates over time. In my opinion, if the crowd are not ready, just put on hold the intention to get it cheap - I think MC might understand what I'm trying to say here after what he went through. I think he just walked through the path I took few years ago....luckily he is still standing & alive. Hence, I'm still in my opinion, crowd is bullish is essential.

2) I do not deny that, however we can minimize the risk by monitoring the share purchase progress from daily disclosure. Best is, get out before the thing get concluded / announcement is made....this environment always generate quick bucks most of the time.

3) I'm not well verse in this either, that why I'm putting it aside even though i read it somewhere.

On the parameters, I'm not saying it is not important, just it should come as second priority after the conditions precedent to be met - environments (1) & (2)

On your next post on playing field not level - know only you aware of that ? I thought you already experienced that when you went into battle ground at some Tenaga-CW issued by CIMB many moons ago?

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-21 16:35 | Report Abuse

it should be or function, environment (1) or (2)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 17:28 | Report Abuse

In your environment 1, crowd bullish only enter call warrants (note I talk about call warrant here, not company warrant, they are of different game), fair enough as that is how you want to play. It is just like ordinary share, you follow the technical, buy high and hope to sell higher. Noting wrong with your strategy, provided that crowd bullishness continue after you have bought. This is opposed to the other camp, the value investors who buy good companies at a big margin of safety.

I follow the other strategy, buy cheap based on premium, expiry date and volatility. Most options players in the developed market also follow the efficient market hypothesis. Due to the action of many players in the market, they believe the present share price of the underlying is reflected by all information available at that point of time. They don't know which direction the underlying share price will move in the near future. If you can buy the call warrant at close to its intrinsic value without having to pay a high premium on the time value which is still far away, it is a safe strategy as even if the underlying share price doesn't go up, you still won't lose much when the CW expires because you still get the intrinsic value of the CW back at settlement. But in case if there is a spike of volatility, you have every chance to make big.

I have explained the detrimental effects on the call warrants (and also company warrants) if a company is taken over at a small premium to its market price when there is still a lot of time value which will be lost. Hope you understand what I am talking about. It is not a matter of monitoring or not.

Now only know about the uneven playing field? Did I say now only I know?

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-21 19:17 | Report Abuse

The detrimental effects-yes , fully aware. Volcano don't erupt immediately naturally , major landslide don't happen immediately as well, there are always signs before it takes place. So i believe the same to CW or WA ......it still can be monitored....monitor to make sure we can escape fast enough before the time value is destroyed ,before the event really take place.

Yes - it should be "now" instead of "know". Sorry, I learned too fast from tony lim .....his sesisir pisang still circulating in my head. No, you didn't say it, that is what I assume.

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-21 19:19 | Report Abuse

You know what is the crowd going after now?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-21 19:41 | Report Abuse

No, I ain't a crowd follower.

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-23 10:23 | Report Abuse

ok, you ain't crow follower... :)

MPCorp underlying - both (1) & (2) created
MPCorp-WB ~ one & the only battle ground.....if you look at the premium level....you dare to enter?

OTB stated - "you consider this & you consider that, you'll never initiate position eventually"

for you observation purpose only, start counting how many battle grounds you are going to miss from this point onward.

* strictly for discussion purpose only

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-23 12:17 | Report Abuse

I ain't crowd follower (again). When everybody is making money and I don't, it is ok. It doesn't bother me.

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-23 14:01 | Report Abuse

it is not about you making money or miss the opportunity of gaining money....it is about something which are deviated from the books & also the estimation formulas regarding the warrants. why it behaves that way ?

ever find yourself calling/ thinking of calling those warriors dumb when they "fight" inside the fighting ground with parameters not favorable ? either the warriors know nuts about warrants or vice versa?

ever find yourself in a fighting ground with parameters which are so favorable, yet those warrior not coming ? either the warriors know nuts again about warrant or vice versa ?

I used to find myself in the former situation also....but not anymore after numerous of battle grounds taking place being observed.

maybe it doesn't matter to you, coz it doesn't bother you on those deviations in the first place. hahaha :)

aiya, i talked too much nonsense....non of my business also.....till we meet again ex-contractor. adios

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-23 14:26 | Report Abuse

When I invest in a stock, I must know their business, how is it performing, is it giving good return of capital, earnings good and it the quality of earnings good with good cash flow. Then if its price is reasonable or good? So far my way serves me very well.

I don't listen to what other tell me because I have been there before. Even the CEO, MD, CFO of a company told me to buy their stocks yet I got conned. Years ago I also have lost money listened and followed people to buy this and that and also almost all the time lost money. I don't look at chart to trade because I am investing, not trading or speculating. How many retail investors can beat the insiders, syndicates, investment bankers with the big computers with their charts?

Similarly, when I invest in company warrants or punt in call warrants, I must know if it is cheap in terms of premium, how long to expire, how volatile is the underlying, what gearing etc. At least I know what chance I have in this bet.

Yes, a lot of the things I look at are history. But I have no idea about their future anyway. I have no idea what other people say the company's land worth how much how much is true or not. But i see company losing money every year, law suit at hand, cash calling imminent, questionable management and even the land worth how much how much, whether the minority will enjoy it or not.

Remember what I have stressing, I am investing, not trading or speculating. Though I punt call warrants, I punt with some basis and hopefully with higher probability of winning.

"it is about something which are deviated from the books & also the estimation formulas regarding the warrants. why it behaves that way ?"

Why would I bother to think too much of the above statement? I told you I am not a crowd follower, didn't I?

I thought this is a good discussion.

Posted by passerby > 2013-09-23 14:38 | Report Abuse

:)...from beginning until my last posts....what I have stated all about warrants trading.....when & how it should be utilized ? nothing to do with the investing. Please do not mix it with investing.

wrong discussion...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-23 14:46 | Report Abuse

Okokok, I might be off the track.

But buying company warrants can be investing. You buy company warrant with less outlay than the underlying share. Eventually you can convert to the underlying share.

Call warrant is punting. It is a short duration option settled with cash.

I am saying for both of the above, for me there is a process of evaluating what is the probability of winning. I don't follow the crowd in both cases.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-09-23 14:57 | Report Abuse

Take for example LBS warrant now. LBS is at 1.85 and Wa at 82 sen. conversion price is 1.00. It has five more years to expire. Hence it is trading at a discount of 1.6%. Even if LBS share price never go any higher, I still make money when convert to LBS share and sell at expiry. But there is still 5 more years to go. Some more a gearing of 2.3 times. What is the probability that LBS will never go higher than the present price within this long 5 years? So I see the chance of positive return is high and hence I bet/invest in it.

Take for example another warrant expiring in 3 months time with a premium of 20%. but rumours that somebody going to take over at what price what price. Or the chart is how beautiful that it will shot up 50% in a short while, and the crowd is chasing the warrant now. Will I buy? NO, the probability of winning is low. I don't know if those rumours will come true etc.