maybank just raised their CPO forecast to RM3100 yesterday,from RM2600 previously.Since Bplant is their top pick,i believe target price of Bplant will raise by maybank after 1st quarter result announcement.
RM500 per tonnes upward should add another RM60-65 million net profit to Bplant FY2021's result.and i believe the upward revision will continue in months to come as RM3100 still consider very low..even worldbank had predict CPO gonna average at RM4000 this year.
at RM4000 per tonnes,Net profit for FY2021 should break RM200 million easily,and it means Bplant could only trade at 5-6x of forward PE currently..which i think very attractive
even if production drop 10% this year,but when CPO price at lease 50% higher than last year,the net effect remain very positive.if profit rise significantly,of course taxes will be higher,that is not a issue.
Bplant produced 200,000+ mt palm oil each year.every RM100 increase means RM20million extra profit..so i assume RM12-13million extra profit with every RM100 increase in CPO price is quite reasonable.
I think let’s target 100-150m for now la… if they can get machinery to pick up the fruits n drone to fertilise, thn we can aim for ur number. Y with so many unemployed, they don’t want to get job as oil palm harvester… just thinking…
I personally wish not a true coz the major shareholder tends to offer lower take over price like what happen to it parent company which only offer RM0.80 which at the time Boustead Holdings trade in the range of RM0.50 to 0.60
Almost all IB stay neutral and the analysts stressed that current high level of Cpo cannot sustain and will correct down when supply increase later. They don't have to overly emphasize this . This is common knowledge for anyone and the historical data easily available can be referred to by anyone . What professional or 'expert' view they are offering? I think it is more important to look at the annual ASP (average selling price) for next few years to make investment advise. Even if ASP for 2021 is $3,500 , plantation will make very healthy increase in earning and hence higher dividend . CPO 's ASP for 2009 to 2020 are estimated as below ; 2009. $2,400 2010. $2,800 2011. $3,350 2012. $2,900 2013. $2,400 2014. $2,350 2015. $2,150 2016. $ 2,700 2017. $2,800 2018. $2150 2019. $2,250 2020. $2,750 Anyone can go to look up for share prices and dividend payout of the private plantation company from 2009 to 2020 and try to relate the data. You will see today's share price is even lower than when ASP of CPO was $2,300-2,400 ! When CPO has achieved over $4,000 for 1st 5 months of 2021 and will lead to much higher ASP for the year , the sector doesn't deserve upgrade by the IB ? ? I wonder why .
I am still not enough confident in the management capability. BP is somewhat controlled by its parent BSTEAD, higher political weightage factor. The present political stability doesn't look very promising.
Swkpltn 1q make 8.5 sen pay 5 sen dividend Share price $2.42. Simepltn 1 q make 8.2 sen , pay 0 dividend. Share price $4.45. Clearly swkplant is a better buy .
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
brianklc
1,624 posts
Posted by brianklc > 2021-05-17 11:55 | Report Abuse
Thank u Parkinson…