Heatwave and serious draught all over the places is damaging food crops/yield . CPO price shall improve from today's $4,300 to $5,000+ soon . The almost USD600 price gap between CPO and SBO and shortage of fuels in Europe are some of the reasons for CPO price hike as soon as inventory buildup in Indonesia from export ban has eased. Just my view.
Yes.. John in definitely right on the serious drought across the globe. The problem not only affects agriculture but also severely affects livestock... Not sure if there are any concerns that will trigger a domino effect or not due to the bad weather.
Chicago soybean futures rose past $16 per bushel in late August, the highest in over two months, amid concerns of poor growing conditions in the US and higher import demand from major consumer China. Heatwaves in the American Midwest hampered the supply outlook on the current crop, as weather forecasts still do not favor clear indications of rain for the coming days. In the meantime, record-setting heatwaves for multiple Chinese regions damaged the incoming crop, driving grain traders to enter international soybean markets.
As at 25/8/22, CPO fob Malaysia was usd1,069/mt. SBO ex Rotterdam was usd1,655/mt. CPO was ridiculously cheaper by usd586/mt ! When CPO stock pressure ease in Indonesia soon , the price gap should narrow to usd200/mt with CPO price potentially increase by usd386/mt or RM1,700/mt. This shall bring CPO back to around RM6,000/mt. SBO price has little chance to go down with weather havoc in Europe, China and U.S.
(Aug 27): Europe’s fertiliser crunch is deepening with more than two-thirds of production capacity halted by soaring gas costs, threatening farmers and consumers far beyond the region’s borders.
Russia’s squeeze on gas shipments in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is hurting industries across Europe. But fertiliser companies are being especially affected because gas is both a key feedstock and a source of power for the sector.
Wholesale fertiliser prices, which fell back after climbing to multiyear highs following Russia’s assault, are rising again as European Union producers curb capacity. Ammonia prices in Western Europe have surged over the last two years, according to data by Bloomberg’s crop nutrient analysis company Green Markets. Dwindling supplies will keep prices elevated, threatening productivity as farmers are forced to scale back their use of the key nutrient. That in turn will hit consumers as food inflation accelerates. —————————- That means lower production of edible oil crops too.
Yes buy more bcos every qtr pays min div at least 2 sen....4 qtr at least 8 sen mah! That means 10% return base on div alone.....very attractive mah!
Plus plantation land is a good hedge agst div loh! Whats more ? Bplant land alot in good location & can be monetize & convert to Commercial, Industrial & residential Development mah!
Yes. Europe is facing a winter of discontent with high energy cost, possibility of severe winter, gas shortages, industrial production disruption. Last but not the least energy crisis that have impacted their grains production and yields. Spring plantings is below average, shipment of Ukraine grains thru the UN broker deal with Russia, Turkey and Ukraine is at snail pace. This is last year old stocks which was at the port warehouse prior to the February breakout of the military conflict and all the vessels was park and dock at the various seaports. What was not reported that freight insurance cover has sky rocketed and some of the cargoes was pest infested. Russia and Ukraine is the bread basket of Europe. This year crop plantings in Ukraine has and was badly impacted by the Russian invasion especially on the Eastern side. Russia practically now controls all the key sea points at the Black Sea. With the extreme heatwave hitting Europe { Germany, France and UK } the people are hit with high inflation rate. Food prices are trending higher and higher
Indonesia working on pushing ahead with b40 biodiesel.. If the implementation is successful, we may see other countries adopt it too, and demand for cpo will go up.
Aug 29): Goldman Sachs Group Inc urged investors to pile into commodities as most recession risks coursing through global markets are overblown in the near term, arguing that raw materials stand to rebound amid a profound energy crisis and tight physical fundamentals.
“Our economists view the risk of a recession outside Europe in the next 12 months as relatively low,” analysts including Sabine Schels, Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin wrote in a note. “With oil the commodity of last resort in an era of severe energy shortages, we believe the pullback in the entire oil complex provides an attractive entry point for long-only investments.”
RJ, everyone can give TP. And those with slightest intelligence can give valid justifications support their TP. BUT, I strongly believed richman who is a man of wisdom can respond n give his justifications…
Larry Flink { fund manager} said for long term investor should buy and hold investment{s} that brings in regular income receipts and potential capital gains over longer period of time during this period of time. Unwise to focus on short term
Any TP or forward ratio needs to have certain criteria and clarity. Specific research on foreseeable market demand, production or pricing vs other competing oiks have to be meaningful. Not just any prices pluck from thin air at your own fancy . Earnings, foreseeable PE ratio, yield, cash flow or sector earnings and outlook have to be seriously studied before coming out with any targeted TP. Not to mention disposal or potential gain on special land sale. What's their book value vs current market value. Not a buy call but my own personal view. Not forgetting your own risk ratio vs risk reward factor. My own TP price for BPlant ? Well I don't have a magic crystal ball to tell you the price { BPlant in the coming 3 or 6 months} . BPlant is for long term
@YU and Mee, now Calvin could be busy promoting other counters, he has forgotten his former sweet heart Bplant, no worry, he will appear when CPO hit 6000 a ton. haha
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Johnzhang
3,098 posts
Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-08-26 08:50 | Report Abuse
Heatwave and serious draught all over the places is damaging food crops/yield . CPO price shall improve from today's $4,300 to $5,000+ soon . The almost USD600 price gap between CPO and SBO and shortage of fuels in Europe are some of the reasons for CPO price hike as soon as inventory buildup in Indonesia from export ban has eased. Just my view.