If you believe TP RM3, now is the time to buy, buy , buy. Sell land, house, car etc bcos 2 years can triple wealth when reach RM3. No risk if so sure but I no sure lah. If I so sure, sure I sell everything to buy all now.
Just based on 1 year data, I also don’t know how to calculate its’ intrinsic value. But overall it’s still considered a safe investment for now. Not to mention recent deal with North American Pension Fund.
Imagine GoucoLand entry price at 1.20 during IPO compare to yours that’s 1st. 2ndly, as at May this year the company has cumulative sales of RM8.184B.
3rd, from the current sites, the company targets a total of 30B GDV for the next 10 years.
So total current sales & potential sales will be at 38.184B, excluding any other potential M&A for the next 10 years.
RM38.184B/2.4B of shares = RM15.91/Share
If you invest 100K shares now may cost you about RM106K, but EWInt has to sale or develop for you properties worth (100000*RM15.91) = RM 1.591M for the next 10 years.
At least for now I don’t see any property in Malaysia you buy at 106K today & will become 1.59M in the next 10 years.
So why worry?
If you guys really into property than can consider to invest another good local company, so your real estate business will be running 24 hours a day.
The company warrant Exercise Price at RM1.45, before 4/2022, meaning to say it will be only reasonable for EcoWorld & GuocoLand to exercise their right if mother share above 1.45.
Compare to the current price, investors here will have a room of about 40% increase before warrant expired
GDV is a bullshit figure given by management. You should see the ones in 2013. To completely rely on it is foolish.
But if you want to use those kind of figures.
Trop is pulling out figures like RM43bil.
Mahsing RM26bil
IJM Land RM34bil
Etc etc
I can continue.
And i like how you get you RM15.91 per share price. Just divide GDV over shares. 100% profit margin man. You should teach me how to open property development co and get 100% margin.
Even google margin also not so high, and those people only need to pay for server and staff cost.
M&A is not free. If they issue shares, that will lower eps etc.
Otherwise, raise cash etc, you know how many rights etc gamuda and ijm do? Also lower eps.
The return for GAMUDA and IJM is rubbish. Even you take low since crisis to now, its about 100%, so basically about 7% per annum. Not including div lah tbf. With div maybe 9%.
And if you do since listing. Not exactly fantastic either
Unless someone in UK very kind heart, give them 20% clean ROI. In which case, i doubt it.
Unless they highly prescient, buy land in the future during crash in Britain, and develop/sell off when market better.
That is decade long plans.
Having said that, ecoworld is one of the best developers in malaysia.
So, you've got that going for them.
========= Posted by 2Invest > Sep 13, 2018 11:28 AM | Report Abuse
Just based on 1 year data, I also don’t know how to calculate its’ intrinsic value. But overall it’s still considered a safe investment for now. Not to mention recent deal with North American Pension Fund.
Imagine GoucoLand entry price at 1.20 during IPO compare to yours that’s 1st. 2ndly, as at May this year the company has cumulative sales of RM8.184B.
3rd, from the current sites, the company targets a total of 30B GDV for the next 10 years.
So total current sales & potential sales will be at 38.184B, excluding any other potential M&A for the next 10 years.
RM38.184B/2.4B of shares = RM15.91/Share
If you invest 100K shares now may cost you about RM106K, but EWInt has to sale or develop for you properties worth (100000*RM15.91) = RM 1.591M for the next 10 years.
At least for now I don’t see any property in Malaysia you buy at 106K today & will become 1.59M in the next 10 years.
So why worry?
If you guys really into property than can consider to invest another good local company, so your real estate business will be running 24 hours a day.
"So total current sales & potential sales will be at 38.184B, excluding any other potential M&A for the next 10 years. "
==== Correct way to calculate is like this.
Lets assume ekoworld is not just one of the best in malaysia. But god of property developer.
Chang Kim Wah (and Liew Kee Sin, he is non exec, but im sure he works) so god, until Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum pray to him every morning when he wake up, and every night just before he sleep.
And like god, prediction come true. 10 year, RM38.184B sales, 10% margin.
Lets assume its even.
So its RM3.8bil per year, or RM380mil profit a year from this year.
Lets assume he really is god, and get this kind of return with no right issue etc, and the profit margin is after ALL the future financing cost needed to develop 38bil of GDV.
That is 14.6% earning yield for 10 years. Risk free rate is 4.3%.
So, if ekoworld is god, you get 10.3% above FD for 10 years.
But if he's human leh? What kind of return you looking at ?
and if the son, Liew Tian Xiong, is inevitably not as good as the father, what kind of return you looking at?
I can think of 10 companies now giving you better than 14.6% earning yield, without being god.
Also, ecoworld, the flagship co, is at its peak, only 7.2% net margin. So realistically, you are looking at more like 10.5% earning yield or 10 PE.
I close eye also can show you 10 companies significantly cheaper and probably just as good. At least in this kind of bear market.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
smalltimer
1,501 posts
Posted by smalltimer > 2018-08-29 08:12 | Report Abuse
Why this share sucks?