Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-26 13:04 | Report Abuse

game start..hehe

Posted by chanph > 2017-10-26 13:30 | Report Abuse

Whoa!!!

Posted by Deslim > 2017-10-26 13:36 | Report Abuse

The new qr report mentioned the major turnaround (5 to 6 years one time) was performed during July to September and caused the productivity usage dropped from 90% to 65% .And the next quarter will be in full capacity.

Impressed with this quarter results and it's ready to fly.

Posted by Infinite > 2017-10-26 13:40 | Report Abuse

Wow, the profit margin was jump from 6.4% to 11.4%

Posted by XDreamerII > 2017-10-26 14:04 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/26/lotte-is-top-pick-in-petrochemicals-sector/

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 14:06 | Report Abuse

Not sure if really impressed with the result or not ...

Net profit is only 230mil... much lowered than last yr same Q... although it has improved compared to previous Quarter.

Posted by Deslim > 2017-10-26 14:16 | Report Abuse

@spy008, you have to take the 5 to 6 years one time turnaround into consideration, and I think you will satisfied with the results

Posted by kentwoon > 2017-10-26 14:33 | Report Abuse

Results out, good

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-26 14:34 | Report Abuse

why price drop?

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 14:44 | Report Abuse

@Deslim, i know.. but Even take off the factory maintenance thingy, the profit will be only 300+? Not better than last year.

Most important is this 2 sentence in their commentary on prospects on next quarter:

"While olefins and derivative are expected to be slightly bearish as supply improved on the completion of regional cracker planned turnaround."

"Indonesia polyethylene plant load will remain low until polyethylene economics return."

Doesn't sounds too good.

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-26 14:55 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lotte-chemical-titan-3q-earnings-fall-rm23031m-lower-sales-higher-production-cost

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 15:01 | Report Abuse

Shit, start dropping...

Posted by McQueen1 > 2017-10-26 15:04 | Report Abuse

selling strong

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-26 15:07 | Report Abuse

mampui......fuc king counter.pui

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-26 15:20 | Report Abuse

taking a rolling EPS for 4 quarters the EPS is about 52 sen per share. 4 th quater 2016 was about 340 million.Taking PE of 14 to 16, prospective price range is 7-8 rgt.
Not to sure how much they will be hit by listing expenses in the 4th quarter.

Pet chem in end 2016 was about 37 sen/share. they were traded between 18 to 20 PE in 2017. This year they show a marked improvement in profits.They are trading at 15x now.

If it goes below 5, let us burn the market maker Maybank IB to the ground, LCT have experienced fire. MIB should likewise be fired!

Posted by smartly > 2017-10-26 15:21 | Report Abuse

with this result estimated pe = 15sen...not too bad.

Posted by theedge > 2017-10-26 15:26 | Report Abuse

stupid KOREAN wanna launched IPO at RM8 o0o

Posted by Ibi_chan > 2017-10-26 15:27 | Report Abuse

Back to rm4?

Posted by btoong > 2017-10-26 15:47 | Report Abuse

anybody track feedstock price trend?

Posted by btoong > 2017-10-26 15:50 | Report Abuse

gross margin dropped by 10% compared to corresponding period. Capacity utilisation was 77% compared to 92%. Just wanted to see what is impact of raw material to COGS.

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 15:59 | Report Abuse

Raw material is naptha (however, it is not ASIA price but should be similar trend):
http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/naphtha

Btw, the raw material price is not the only key point.... need to know the crack spread, (naptha - etlyne price), i dunno where to see.

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 16:00 | Report Abuse

Ethylene prices decline in Asia on Tuesday

:: 25 Oct 2017 ::

Ethylene prices in Asia on Tuesday witnessed a drop.

The price fall was in line with sufficient product availability in the region.

CFR North East Asia prices of ethylene were assessed lower at the USD 1270/mt levels, a day on day decline of USD 10/mt.

CFR South East Asia prices of ethylene were assessed down at the USD 1150/mt levels, a fall of USD 10/mt from Monday�s assessed levels.


http://www.apic-online.org/top_story.asp?ID=10174

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 16:03 | Report Abuse

What's more is,

LCTITAN use Naptha to produce ethylene (but they don't sell ethylene), they use the ethylene to re-produce polyethylene,

Therefore, it's abit complicated...... LCtitan actually only gain more if Polyethylene price is high.

Posted by WahHaaHaa > 2017-10-26 16:14 | Report Abuse

Whatever it is all about, it seems that all the IBs are SMART PROMOTERS of this Stock, supposed to have initial IPO listing Price of RM8+
, then down to RM6.50 and to build and ooze PUBLIC confidence, buying back IPO at listing COST of RM6.50 by Company and then many IBs calling to by from RM6,50 Target Price to CIMB's called of TP RM8.35 !

So if all these Promoters are so Gangho on this Stock, most likely they have cornered it and can play it up and down anytime ! Now,is the time to buy because t5he Local Institutuons are too committed in this Counter and with Budget tomorrow and GE14 on the way, need to create the FEEL GOOD Factor and Climate !

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-26 16:27 | Report Abuse

spy 008, you are the one most likely to give me the answer. If without the naphta cracker maintenance, just by back of the envelope calculation, what NP could they have produced? Just estimate, not asking for ball park figure.

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-26 16:42 | Report Abuse

what to do now??

Posted by Infinite > 2017-10-26 16:48 | Report Abuse

With the eps about same with pchem, but share price lower 35%, it look attractive

Posted by kentwoon > 2017-10-26 16:58 | Report Abuse

4896 , before listing all good, after listing different

Posted by asturay > 2017-10-26 18:02 | Report Abuse

Fristration.hope booming but bombing

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-26 18:12 | Report Abuse

1) Bravo 88, I havent checked out. The EPS now is 36.29 and at current price of 5.20, the PE is about 15. Even if the next quarter the same result is produced, the EPS is about 46,7, and assuming with PE at 15 the price could be 7.00.
2) Today the market maker is commendably steady as sellers were well absorbed, and finished about 1.3% down. I think tomorrow is another sell down day, but again I think the market maker will protect his turf well. Out there there are still non substantial holders or retail sellers who wanna dispose due to disappointment.
3) The trend now is push first, to achieve the prospective PE b4 the Q result is out. Looking at the dates, we can assume that the next Q4 report will be out on the final week of January. I guess that is why the share price did not move higher than Rgt 5.30. At least now we know that PE is 15. If it moved higher there would be a bigger drop.
4) As for the warrants, Ca and Cb expires in mid February, after the 4Q result is out. the warrants will not be the same price as now once the price goes up to RGT 6.

So 2 things to look forward to: The earnings for 4th Q should at least be the same as this recent one. The market maker will move the market b4 the q results are out.

On another note: Take note of what WAhaahaa, wrote: this is an institutional stock, and previously they do pay dividends in 2016, b4 LCT was listed.

Only thing, just don't any more untoward incidences occur; fire la, explosion la, floods la, earthquake la,.. If it does.... oh boy, its getting very tiresome.

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-26 18:18 | Report Abuse

Sad to see this...

Posted by bravo88 > 2017-10-26 18:21 | Report Abuse

tq bro weavefinder........wait and see.

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-26 18:45 | Report Abuse

Lets consider this Q3 as history. Somehow they definitely did better than the last quarter by at least another 100 mil, only not as comparable as previous year quarter. Btw spy 008, please la tolong la, whats your estimate if without the maintenance on one of the Naphta crackers? You seem to be somebody who is good in calculations.

Posted by Deslim > 2017-10-26 18:47 | Report Abuse

from the cash level we can see the positive improvement and the number is scary(without financing liabilities),some more this is a giant company with powerful market share,we should give it time to prove themselves

Posted by Deslim > 2017-10-26 18:49 | Report Abuse

holding a company like that will not going to kill us like those speculate counters, it needs a year to prove themselves m

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-26 20:17 | Report Abuse

The cash ratio and current ratio is very healthy. There is an exciting plan is opening of TE3, but when ( remain dont know).

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-26 20:50 | Report Abuse

IB mentioned so high, hope it will become reality...

Posted by smartly > 2017-10-26 21:27 | Report Abuse

revenue up by 0.66%
net profit drop by 36%
eps drop by 47% from 20.16 to 10.42

price may drop further tomorrow. :(

Posted by mredzuan > 2017-10-26 21:30 | Report Abuse

in my opinion, the company financial statement is very healthy. Today selling force is from weak shareholder (maybe traumatized by previous quarter) but nicely absorbed by the market. this counter will fly, just matter of time only

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5582037

is it mean >75% of share hold by institutional ?

Posted by gick891214 > 2017-10-26 22:03 | Report Abuse

Petronm can fly higher at short time...titan also can

Posted by emmcee > 2017-10-26 22:43 | Report Abuse

Titan will go further...

Posted by kentwoon > 2017-10-26 22:53 | Report Abuse

Titanic

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-26 23:05 | Report Abuse

mredzuan, cannot determine now unless you wait for the annual report 2017, released in 2018. But historically during IPO, LCT holds about 70% via MIB (should be the market maker) and about 6% cornerstone investors (Permodalan Nasional Bhd, Mayabank Asset Management Sdn Bhd, Maybank Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd, Eastspring Investments Bhd and Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Bhd), Balance about 24% goes to a mix of small institutions, selected investors and individuals.
All this might have changed. Anyway just for info.

Posted by Lau333 > 2017-10-26 23:06 | Report Abuse

Few take-away from the quarterly result.
1) Gross margin is up QoQ to 15.1% from 12.6% in line with plant utilization of 77% vs 71%.
2) On prospect, slightly bearish with improving supply especially in US. However, production will rebound as no major planned shutdown.
3) Utilization at Indo plants to remain low until polyethylene economics return. (Harvey hurricane drove ethylene price above both HDPE & LDPE from mid Aug. Meaning negative margin. Indonesia plants are fully dependent on imported ethylene)
4) TE3 is expected to be commissioned in 4Q2017.

Overall, a decent quarter given the operating environment. Am quite relief that Indonesia plants will have low utilization. Checked Indonesia subsidiary, losses and profits +/- USD$8m over last 3 years. So, shouldn't have too much bearing on that. TE3 will add 93KTA Ethylene, 127KTA Propylene and 134KTA Benzene vs 80~100KT Ethylene purchased per quarter (Add capacity is some 25% of ethylene purchased). That should lower down the cost. The worst seem over…

That's just my 2 cents.

Posted by spy008 > 2017-10-26 23:11 | Report Abuse

LCTitan has released their presentation slide/briefing on the Q3 result:
http://www.lottechem.my/investor/material.asp

Posted by Winmore88 > 2017-10-26 23:20 | Report Abuse

will never by any titan CW..Will cry like no mother

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-26 23:33 | Report Abuse

All that i can say about the slide briefing: LCT has got class and they put in effort to place issues in simple and concise perspectives for readers and shareholders to be informed. Unlike most others who come out with their Q reports and then leave it as done. Whether readers can digest or not is not their problem.
Kudos to LCT.
But for the market maker, I wish i could hold a gun at his head tomorrow so that he defends his turf strongly!

Posted by apprentice > 2017-10-26 23:44 | Report Abuse

Nice to see many well informed and educated readers having a healthy discussion.

I bought in PChem many years ago when no one wanted to touch it. No regrets. I am keeping a close eye on the LCT price and jump in when the price stabilise. Dont foresee it below 5.00. With its pledge of returning 50% profits as dividend, it is attractive for long term investors.

Promoter's pricing of 8.00 may be far fetched for the moment, but this counter has future and the worse may be over after overcoming teething problems.

Posted by weavefinder > 2017-10-27 00:23 | Report Abuse

Now that you mention Pchem, what comes to mind is the clustering effect. This could be a bumper year for Pchem generating potential EPS of 55sen/share. Would be good if the prices move higher so that the PE would work out to be between 16 to 20 times, and that becomes the comparable benchmark PE. Globally, the peers for Pchem and LCT is traded averagely between 16 to 20 times EPS.
If Pchem could move higher and set the pace for that sector of the Malaysian O&G industry, that will also assist LCT's momentum, might not be a significant relationship, but there will be an impact. Just look at the clustering effect of the glove players and the refinery players.
However, only time will tell.

Posted by apprentice > 2017-10-27 05:35 | Report Abuse

LCT needs to show more consistent and higher profit before the cluster effect can kick in. The 2Q result may be a one off thing but if one were to add both 2Q and 3Q eps, it will cone to roughly 16sen, 32sen annualised. Thus 16x will give it a 5.00 value.

Comes to mind is FGV, unable to keep up with its other cousins and languishing below 2.00 for most of its time spent in market.

Same thing as Supermax, the odd one out in the glove segment.

4Q will be an important milestone for LCT. If its anuualised eps be about 50sen, then I will be collecting more, else goodbye for the time being.